The yen appreciated to the strongest in almost four weeks versus the dollar after a gauge of U.S. manufacturing grew less than forecast, adding to haven demand and damping bets the Federal Reserve might slow its bond-buying under quantitative easing.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 51.3, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s figures showed. The 2.9- point decline was the biggest since July 2011. The gauge reached 54.2 in February, the highest level since June 2011. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Japan’s currency climbed versus all of its 16 most-traded peers before the nation’s central bank opens a policy meeting April 3. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will preside over his first policy meeting April 3-4. He said in testimony to parliament last week he wants to achieve a 2 percent inflation target in two years.
The euro fell against the yen before data tomorrow that may show unemployment in the currency bloc climbed to a record, two days before European Central Bank officials announce an interest-rate decision. Unemployment in the euro area probably climbed to a record 12 percent in February, according to a survey of economists before the European Union’s statistics office releases the report tomorrow. A final reading of a gauge tracking manufacturing in the region also due tomorrow may confirm a 20th month of contraction, a separate poll showed. ECB President Mario Draghi and his fellow policy makers will probably keep the euro area’s benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.75 percent at a meeting April 4, according to analysts surveyed.
West Texas
Intermediate oil fell for the first time in six days, widening its discount to
Brent, on speculation that the closure of an Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) pipeline
will increase
WTI slid as
much as 1.3 percent as Exxon shut the Pegasus pipeline, which moves oil from
The 96,000
barrel-a-day Pegasus pipeline will need to be excavated as Exxon determines
what caused the breach, and Exxon is awaiting regulatory approval to begin
excavation work and repairs, Alan Jeffers, a company spokesman in
Pegasus, a
20-inch (51-centimeter) line that runs to
Oil also
dropped as
WTI for May
delivery slipped to $95.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent for
May settlement dropped 21 cents to $109.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE
Futures Europe exchange. The European grade’s premium to WTI widened to as much
as $13.86 a barrel after settling at $12.79 on March 28, the narrowest level
since June 25.
Gold prices are stable, while the major European exchanges closed for a holiday, and investors are less concerned about the situation in Cyprus. In the first quarter gold cheaper by 4 per cent due to the rally in equity markets and a weakening euro.
Cyprus crisis, which kept investors in suspense the last 2 weeks, winding down on Thursday resumed banks island country, and their discovery is not associated with some disastrous consequences. The Central Bank introduced strict measures to restrict the movement of capital, slightly loosening them on Friday - removed limits on domestic transactions with bank cards. Declared parameters expropriation of large deposits in the Bank of Cyprus, 37,5% of the contributions of over 100 thousand Euros will be exchanged for shares of the bank, and by 22.5% of the amount will not accrue interest. In this case, the government is seeking options for the resuscitation of the economy, the threat of default Cyprus, meanwhile, reduced day by day.
Market on Monday is in an indeterminate state. Usually a strong indicator of PMI China attracts investors to the stock market, and does not support the price of gold, but this time it's the opposite. Tensions over North Korea's increasing uncertainty in the market.
China's official PMI index rose in March to a maximum of 11 months of 50.9 points from 50.1 in February, while economists polled by Reuters predicted value of 52 points.
North Korea said Saturday that enters into a state of war with South Korea in response to a "hostile" military exercises. South Korea on Monday promised to answer retaliation to an attack by North Korea.
Premium for bullion held in Singapore at $ 1,20-1,50 per ounce to spot price in London. Financial markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia on Monday closed on Easter.
Cost June gold futures on the COMEX today is trading in the range of 1595.2 - 1601.6 per ounce.
USD/JPY Y93.50, Y94.00, Y94.45, Y94.50, Y95.50
EUR/JPY Y121.75, Y122.50U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors awaited a report on American manufacturing.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 12,135.02 -262.89 -2.12%
Hang Seng 22,299.63 -165.19 -0.74%
Shanghai Composite 2,234.4 -2.23 -0.10%
Crude oil $96.66 -0.59%
Gold $1598.40 -0.23%
Other:
DuPont (DD) resumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Data
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 51.7 51.7 51.6
09:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday
09:00 France Bank holiday
09:00 Germany Bank holiday
09:00 Switzerland Bank holiday
The yen rose against the dollar while still achieving the highest level in almost four weeks after the economic data from Japan, China and South Korea were lower than expected, which led to higher demand for assets seekers. As shown by the report of the Bank of Japan Tankan, sentiment among large manufacturers improved in the first quarter, but remain in negative territory. According to the data, the index of activity in the sector of large manufacturers rose to -8, compared to -12 in the 4th quarter, while economists forecast a rise to -7. Meanwhile, the report showed that the index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector rose in the first quarter to level 6 to 4 in the last quarter. Note that the index is the difference between the percentage of companies who said business conditions are bad, the share of those who think that they are favorable. The key sentiment index of large manufacturers is in the red six consecutive quarters. Values below zero indicate that the recovery of economic growth after the recession is not stuck in the past six years.
The single currency rose above $ 1.2800 in anticipation of the ECB meeting this week. Analysts expect the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and his colleagues will leave rates at a record low 0.75%. The decision will be announced on April 4. Adding that many are also waiting for tomorrow's report on unemployment in the euro area. It is expected that the figure for February will rise to a record high of 12%. Additionally tomorrow will be published index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which is likely to confirm the reduction of the industry for 20 consecutive months. Meanwhile, experts say that, while the recent fall in the euro may provide additional support for the manufacturing sector and the export sector eurozone events in Cyprus may, in turn, undermine confidence among companies and households in the near future. Thus, the process of economic recovery is likely to remain too slow in the coming months, if it ever will.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2825
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5218, but later fell to $ 1.5185
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y93.28, and then rose to the level of Y93.86
At 14:00 GMT the U.S. ISM manufacturing index will be released in March.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2930/50, $1.2920, $1.2885/90, $1.2845/55
Bids $1.2755/50, $1.2735/25, $1.2700
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5240/50, $1.5220
Bids $1.5155/50, $1.5125/20, $1.5100/90, $1.5070
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0520/30, $1.0485/90, $1.0450/60
Bids $1.0383/80, $1.0365/60, $1.0355/50, $1.0320
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8555/65, stg0.8510, stg0.8500, stg0.8475/85
Bids stg0.8410/00, stg0.8395/90, stg0.8365/60
EUR/JPY
Offers Y121.87 27, Y121.50, Y120.90/1.00, Y120.88
Bids Y119.21, Y119.00, Y118.80/70
USD/JPY
Offers Y95.50, Y95.10/15, Y94.95/5.00, Y94.80/85, Y94.45/50
Bids Y92.95/90, Y92.70/60, Y92.50/40
USD/JPY Y93.50, Y94.00, Y94.45, Y94.50, Y95.50
EUR/JPY Y121.75, Y122.50
Asian stocks fell, with Japan’s Topix Index falling the most since March 2011, after a survey of sentiment among the country’s largest manufacturers missed estimates and an official gauge of China’s factory output expanded at a slower-than-expected pace.
Nikkei 225 12,135.02 -262.89 -2.12%
Hang Seng 22,299.63 -165.19 -0.74%
S&P/ASX 200 4,966.5 -28.49 -0.57%
Shanghai Composite 2,234.4 -2.23 -0.10%
Mazda Motor Corp., the Japanese automaker with the highest proportion of exports, lost 4.3 percent as the yen strengthened against all its major peers.
Nomura Holdings Inc. slid 4.3 percent after Japan’s No. 1 brokerage was sued by a trust over an alleged breach of contract involving $1.14 billion of mortgage-backed securities.
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare- Earth Hi-Tech Co., China’s largest producer of rare-earth minerals, slid 2.1 percent in Shanghai after reporting a slump in earnings.01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 51.7 51.7 51.6
The euro fell versus most of its 16 major counterparts ahead of a report tomorrow that may show unemployment in the bloc climbed to a record in February, two days before European Central Bank officials meet to set interest rates. Unemployment in the euro area probably climbed to an all- time high of 12 percent in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the European Union’s statistics office releases the report tomorrow. A final reading of a gauge tracking manufacturing in the 17- nation region also due tomorrow may confirm a 20th month of contraction, a separate poll shows. ECB President Mario Draghi and his fellow policy makers will probably keep the 17-nation region’s benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.75 percent at a meeting on April 4, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The yen strengthened, after last month capping its longest string of losses in 12 years, as a drop in Asian stocks spurred demand for safer assets. In Japan, the Tankan large manufacturers’ index climbed to minus 8 last quarter from minus 12 in the three months ended Dec. 31, a BOJ report showed today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for an advance to minus 7.
The Australian dollar slid after a report today showed a gauge tracking manufacturing in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner, was at 50.9 last month from 50.1 in February. Economists had forecast a gain to 51.2. A similar measure by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics climbed to 51.6 in March from 50.4 in the previous period.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.2770.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5175.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y93.80.
With Europe's long Easter weekend continues markets expected to be subdued ahead of the NY open with release of US PMI and ISM data the key afternoon events. Focus this week will turn toward Thursday's ECB rate decision, no change expected but interest to be on Draghi's press conference, especially after Cyprus events. US employment data Friday, expectations for another strong showing, though Thursday's weekly claims will provide interim interest.
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9
01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI March 51.7 51.7 51.6
09:00 Switzerland Bank holiday
09:00 Germany Bank holiday
09:00 France Bank holiday
09:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday
13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 54.9 55.0
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m February -2.1% +1.1%
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing March 54.2 54.2
22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index March 45.6