The euro exchange rate against the dollar has declined markedly , although still shows a slight increase on the session . Note that this dynamics is connected with the expectations of progress in resolving the political impasse in the U.S. and comments Powell , who said that the mechanism of "quantitative easing" continues to operate , as well as statements Novotny .

I should add that , despite the fact that President Obama has not expressed support for the Republicans , the fact that the party has lost its strategic position on the debt ceiling sparked a rally in the markets , reviving risky assets. Yesterday, Republicans offered a compromise agreement , suggesting the extension of negotiations on the debt ceiling in exchange for a large-scale debate on the spending cuts . This decision was taken after the polls pointed to a negative attitude toward the Republican Party , and to their role in stopping the work of the government , which has led to the fact that 800 thousand civil servants were forced to go on leave without pay . In essence, the Republicans offer does not contain amendments that would have reduced funding and delaying the implementation of the Law on the availability of medical treatment , which has become a stumbling block in the political negotiations .

The U.S. dollar is going to close the week higher for the first time in the last 5 weeks. News provided support to risk sentiment , causing markets perked up . Unless Congress decides to raise the debt ceiling, it will reach its peak on October 17 , after which the U.S. will no longer be able to service its debt obligations. Confusion Republicans reduced the probability of default of the United States from low to zero .

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, which helped the submitted data for Canada, as well as the first positive changes in the U.S. budget issue . As we learned from the data that were presented earlier by Statistics Canada , at the end of last month the unemployment rate in Canada fell unexpectedly , dropping at the same time by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9 %, which followed a decrease of 0.1 p § in August. Note that a positive change has taken place even despite the fact that the number of employed has changed little compared to the previous month .

The decrease in unemployment to 6.9% was attributed mainly young men looking for work , while the actual employment in all age categories was unchanged. The level of participation for all employees was at the level of 66.4 %, which was 2 percentage points lower than the previous month .

I should add that the last value in the unemployment rate is the lowest since December 2008 , when it stood at 6.8 %, while the participation rate was at around 67.5%. But immediately after that, in January 2009 , the unemployment rate rose very sharply - to 7.3 % in February - up to 8.0 %, which was a consequence of domestic and global recession.

At Statistics also reported that employment in September rose by 11,900 , as determined by a "small change " compared to the previous month. In annual terms, employment rose by 1.2 %, or 212,000 jobs. However, for the year as a whole , employment was little changed , as the number of people employed and the working-age population grew at the same pace .

European stocks climbed for a second day amid optimism U.S. lawmakers will agree to lift the debt limit, removing the imminent threat of default.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent to 311.59 at 4:37 p.m. in London. The benchmark gauge surged 1.7 percent yesterday as House Republican leaders presented proposals to raise the $16.7 trillion U.S. debt limit for six weeks without policy conditions. The index has increased 0.6 percent in the past five days after sliding for two straight weeks.

National benchmark indexes advanced in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,487.19 +56.70 +0.88% CAC 40 4,219.98 +1.87 +0.04% DAX 8,724.83 +39.06 +0.45%  

President Barack Obama met with Republican leaders yesterday after House Speaker John Boehner said he would offer a measure to push back the possibility of a U.S. default until Nov. 22.

Without congressional action to raise the debt limit, the U.S. will exhaust its borrowing authority on Oct. 17. The government of the world’s biggest economy has been partially shut down since Oct. 1 after lawmakers failed to pass a budget.

Royal Mail, Britain’s 360-year-old postal service, jumped 38 percent to 455 pence on its trading debut in London. The initial public offering was the U.K.’s biggest sale of state assets since British Rail was broken up in the 1990s.

Actelion, a Swiss drugmaker, rose 4.1 percent to 63.60 Swiss francs as health-care shares contributed the most to the Stoxx 600’s gain. Shire Plc climbed 2.8 percent to 2,447 pence in London, while Roche Holding AG, the world’s biggest maker of cancer drugs, gained 1.8 percent to 238.90 francs.

Genmab A/S, the Danish developer of cancer drugs, added 2.3 percent to 236.90 kroner. The company said its ofatumumab drug showed a significant reduction in cumulative number of new brain lesions in a multiple sclerosis study.

EMS-Chemie Holding AG (EMSN) advanced 3 percent to 321 francs. The chemical maker said nine-month sales climbed 7 percent to 1.44 billion francs and forecast that the economy will remain favorable in coming months.

Geberit AG, the Swiss maker of toilets and bathroom-piping systems, fell 1.7 percent to 236.7 francs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended selling the shares, citing a disappointing outlook for growth in its most profitable products.

The cost of oil futures has fallen markedly , dropping below $ 111, which was due to the revision of demand outlook from the International Energy Agency.

Note that the monthly report from the IEA showed that the outlook for growth in oil demand in 2013 increased by 100,000 barrels to 1 million barrels a day. In addition, it was reported that the IEA lowers forecast demand for OPEC oil in 2014 by 100,000 barrels per day , and increases the forecast demand for OPEC oil in 2013 by 100,000 barrels per day. We add that the IEA raised its forecast for growth in oil supply from non-OPEC countries in 2014 to 1.7 million barrels a day. Also, the IEA warns that not raising the U.S. debt limit could damage the global demand for oil

The report also stated that in September, oil production in the OPEC -645,000 barrels per day to less than 30 million barrels per day , approaching the 2- year low due to lower production in Libya and Iraq.

In the IEA added that the relatively short duration of the suspension of the U.S. government will have a negligible impact on the oil market . We also learned that the IEA maintains growth forecast for oil demand in 2014 at 1.1 million barrels per day

Meanwhile, we add that the course of trade continues to influence optimistic about overcoming the fiscal crisis . Yesterday's reports that Republicans have taken the first step , provoked a rally of risk assets . Republican leaders have offered a compromise by extending the negotiations on the debt ceiling for 6 weeks in exchange for a more ambitious budget debates . It is worth noting that this initiative is not intended to reduce or delay funding programs affordable health care .

President Obama has yet to take a decision on the matter , but in any case, the Republican Party will be defeated in the war of attrition. Obama reflects successful attack Republicans in the aspect of how the targets and political implications, and while this episode did not increase the credibility of Obama 's popularity has fallen markedly Republicans.

Now Obama is inclined to think , to agree to a six -week extension of the talks , which will allow the Senate , the Democrats controlled , to "strangle " the initiative of the Republicans to reduce spending .

The cost of the November futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 101.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $ 0.80 to $ 110.88 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices have declined substantially , while leaving below $ 1,270 an ounce on expectations of an agreement between the parties of the USA .

Recent reports indicate that the Republicans and the Democrats may soon reach a compromise that will get out of the situation and save the country from default . On the eve of U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner held a meeting , which, though of no consequence , but it was decided to continue negotiations on the temporary increase in the debt ceiling . On the sides positively evaluated the talks . The meeting of the parties and its evaluation is the main market expectations that soon will find a compromise . Recall that now we are talking about raising the debt ceiling for 6 weeks , during which negotiations will be conducted on a wide range of budget issues.

Some pressure on the price of gold had statistics from Germany, which showed that inflation in the EU 's largest economy slowed to 1.4 % yoy from 1.5% in August. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in Europe's largest economy have not changed.

Note that the limiting factor was the statement of the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of China, who said that China's economic growth will exceed the official forecast of 7.5 % this year, although some economic risks, such as debts of local governments and the "shadow banking" remain under the control . Recall that China's GDP grew by 7.5 % in the second quarter compared with a year earlier , that is, growth slowed from 7.7 % in the first three months of the year. Figure was also lower than the 7.7% in 2012 and 9.3 % in 2011. October 18 Bureau of Statistics of China, is due to publish GDP data for the third quarter , economists expect growth to be about 7.7%.

Also today, it was reported that gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust fell yesterday by 1.8 tons.

We also add that many analysts remain bearish on gold on hopes that U.S. lawmakers will come to an agreement and will be able to avoid a default . In addition, Asian demand for physical bullion continues unabated. Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, expects that prices will fall next week , eight bullish , and four - neutral.

The debate over the U.S. budget helped stem the decline in gold prices this year , after some investors lost confidence in gold as a store of value. In addition, the sharp fall prevented demand for physical bullion in Asia, but there are signs that he is currently weakened due to fewer sales in India and China.

"Gold will continue to fall because no one believes that the policies violate the terms of raising the debt ceiling ", - said Jonathan Bush, director Delman SA in Geneva. - "Either Obama will sag under the Republican Party , or vice versa , but the agreement should take place ."

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1301.00 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3650

USD/JPY Y97.30, Y97.50, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.75, Y99.00

EUR/JPY Y132.50

GBP/USD $1.5900

EUR/GBP stg0.8410, stg0.8460, stg0.8500

USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9070, Chf0.9170, Chf0.9225

EUR/CHF Chf1.2290, Chf1.2360, Chf1.2375

AUD/USD $0.9370-75, $0.9425, $0.9450, $0.9495, $0.9500, $0.9530

USD/CSD C$1.0340-45

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as lawmakers continued talks to raise the government’s debt limit to avoid a default.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  14,404.74 +210.03 +1.48%

Hang Seng 23,218.32 +267.02 +1.16%

Shanghai Composite 2,228.15 +37.22 +1.70%

FTSE  6,471.37 +40.88 +0.64%

CAC  4,212.54 -5.57 -0.13%

DAX 8,703.36 +17.59 +0.20%

Crude oil $101.27 -1.69%

Gold $1268.00 -2.23%

Upgrades:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman

Downgrades:

Merck (MRK) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

Other:

Telsey Advisory Group raises their Nike (NKE) tgt to $76 from $74.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3650, $1.3600/10, $1.3580/85

Bids $1.3510/00, $1.3485/80, $1.3460/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6120/25, $1.6100, $1.6070/80, $1.6040/50, $1.6020

Bids $1.5950, $1.5920/00, $1.5870, $1.5850/40, $1.5820, $1.5800

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9600, $0.9550, $0.9520/30, $0.9500, $0.9485

Bids $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9380

EUR/JPY

Offers Y134.50, Y133.90/00, Y133.80

Bids Y133.10/00, Y132.80, Y132.50, Y132.25/20

USD/JPY

Offers Y99.50, Y99.00, Y98.80

Bids Y98.00, Y97.85/80, Y97.50, Y97.20

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520/25, stg0.8495/500

Bids stg0.8455/50, stg0.8440, stg0.8425/15, stg0.8370/65, stg0.8320, stg0.8300

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3650

USD/JPY Y97.30, Y97.50, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.75, Y99.00

EUR/JPY Y132.50

GBP/USD $1.5900

EUR/GBP stg0.8410, stg0.8460, stg0.8500

USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9070, Chf0.9170, Chf0.9225

EUR/CHF Chf1.2290, Chf1.2360, Chf1.2375

AUD/USD $0.9370-75, $0.9425, $0.9450, $0.9495, $0.9500, $0.9530

USD/CSD C$1.0340-45

Asian stocks rose, with the regional index heading for the biggest gain in three weeks, amid optimism U.S. lawmakers will lift the debt limit and avoid a default.

Nikkei 225 14,404.74 +210.03 +1.48%

Hang Seng 23,218.32 +267.02 +1.16%

S&P/ASX 200 5,230.87 +83.73 +1.63%

Shanghai Composite 2,228.15 +37.22 +1.70%

Great Wall Motor Co. added 2.8 percent in Hong Kong after the carmaker reported sales increased last month.

Westpac Banking Corp. contributed the most to the regional benchmark’s advance, gaining 2.5 percent in Sydney after agreeing to buy Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s assets in Australia.

Fast Retailing Co., Asia’s largest clothing retailer, fell 3.2 percent in Tokyo after forecasting profit that missed analyst estimates.

The yen dropped versus all 16 major peers as Asian stocks advanced, sapping demand for safer assets, as U.S. lawmakers continued fiscal negotiations to avert a default.

The dollar climbed for a fourth day against the Japanese currency as U.S. Republicans and President Barack Obama pledged further discussions on a debt-limit increase and government shutdown. Obama didn’t accept or reject House Republicans’ plan to increase the debt limit as the two sides pledged to keep talking about avoiding default and ending the partial government shutdown. Both sides described the talks as constructive with a week remaining until U.S. borrowing authority lapses.

Dollar gains may stall before a report today predicted to show confidence among U.S. consumers declined to the lowest level since January this month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment decreased to 75.6 this month from 77.5 in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

A report on U.S. retail sales scheduled to be released today is among those that have been delayed by the partial U.S. government closure that began Oct. 1 after Republicans insisted on changes to a 2010 health-care law.

Aussie gains may be sustained before a report tomorrow that will probably show imports by China climbed for a third-straight month. Chinese imports rose 7 percent in September from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.3545

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5985

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y98.55

There is only limited UK data set for release, with August construction spending data due at 0830GMT. Output is seen up 0.8% on month, up 3.9% on year. There is another full calendar Friday, as central bank governors and finance officials gather in Washington for G20/IMF/World Bank meetings. US government-released data still remains off the calendar as the shutdown continues, despite better mood music out of DC. European data starts at 0600GMT, with the release of the September final HICP numbers and the September wholesale sales data. HICP is seen unchanged on the month, higher by 1.4% on year. At 0645GMT, the French August current account numbers are due to be published. At 0700GMT, Spain's September final HICP numbers are set for release. At 0800GMT, Italian September final HICP numbers will cross the wires. Italy's HICP is seen up 0.9% Y/Y. Sovereign issuance sees Italy conduct its medium-long BTP and floater CCTeu issues for up to E7.0bln.

GOLD 1,296.60  -10.30 -0.79%

OIL (WTI) 102.88  +1.27 +1.25%

Nikkei 225 14,194.71 156,87 1,12%

Hang Seng -0,36 -82,67 22,951.3%

S & P / ASX 200 5,147.14 -5.85 -0.11%

Shanghai Composite 2,211.77 13,57 0,62%

FTSE 100 6,430.49 +92.58 +1.46%

CAC 40 4,218.11 +91.06 +2.21%

DAX 8,685.77 +169.08 +1.99%

Dow +322.64 15,125.62 +2.18%

Nasdaq +82.97 3,760.75 +2.26%

S&P +36.1 1,692.50 +2.18%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3525 +0,01%

GBP/USD $1,5970 +0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9110 +0,11%

USD/JPY Y98,28 +0,94%

EUR/JPY Y132,92 +0,95%

GBP/JPY Y156,94 +1,04%

AUD/USD $0,9462 +0,17%

NZD/USD $0,8286 -0,17%

USD/CAD C$1,0398 +0,06%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) September 0.0% 0.0%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) September +1.4% +1.4%

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate September 7.1% 7.1%

12:30 Canada Employment September +59.2 +15.3

13:00 United Kingdom Executive Director for Financial Stability Andy Haldane Speaks

13:00 IMF IMF Meetings

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) October 77.5 77.2

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales Quarter III 9

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter III -12.7

15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks October

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

18:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks

20:00 Canada Gov Council Member Murray Speaks