• GBP/USD treads water ahead of critical UK data releases.
• The US dollar holds onto the recent recovery amid US-Sino woes.
• Impending bull cross could rescue cable bulls but a break above 1.2165 is critical.

GBP/USD is licking its wounds while trading around the weekly close near 1.2140, as the US dollar clings to Friday’s recovery gains in early Asia this Monday.

The greenback staged a solid comeback, despite a strong rally on Wall Street indices, as dollar bulls tracked the rebound in the US Treasury yields across the curve. The end-of-the-week flows helped the US currency to recover after falling hard earlier in the week on expectations of shallower Fed tightening amid soft inflation.

Meanwhile, the UK political uncertainty continues to remain a drag on the pound, despite the less-than-expected contraction in the economy in the second quarter. The British economy shrank -0.1% YoY in Q2 vs. -0.2% expected. With the two finalists vying to become Britain's next prime minister, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, the UK strongly opposed Chinese military drills that followed US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last week.

Looking forward, the UK jobs and inflation data will be closely examined for the next BOE rate hike path while the Fed July meeting’s minutes could steal the limelight this week.

As observed on cable’s daily chart, the bullish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is on its way to crossing the downward-sloping 50 DMA for the upside, which if materializes on a daily closing basis would confirm a bull cross.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading flat but defends the midline, keeping bulls hopeful.

If buyers manage to hold onto the bearish 50 DMA support at 1.2121, the pair could stage a decent bounce back towards the 1.2150 psychological level.

A break above that will threaten the falling trendline resistance at 1.2165. The next upside target is aligned at 1.2405, the descending 100 DMA.

GBP/USD: Daily chart

Should the 50 DMA support give way, the 21 DMA at 1.2109 will come to the immediate rescue of GBP bulls.

Daily closing below the latter will kickstart a fresh downtrend towards the August 6 low of 1.2003, below which the July 26 low of 1.1953 could be tested.

GBP/USD: Additional technical levels

• USD/CAD remains directionless after posting the biggest weekly loss in 2022.
• Oil prices fail to cheer hopes of more demand amid mixed macros, cautious mood ahead of FOMC Minutes.
• China’s monthly data dump to offer immediate directions.

USD/CAD seesaws around 1.2770-80 during Monday’s initial Asian session as bears take a breather after the biggest weekly fall in eight months. The Loonie pair’s latest inaction could also be linked to the market’s anxiety ahead of the key data/events scheduled for publishing, as well as mixed headlines released during the weekend. It’s worth noting that the quote’s latest performance ignores the recently softer prices of Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil.

That said, the WTI crude oil prices remain pressured towards $91.00, down 0.25% intraday after staging a weekly rebound. In doing so, the black gold ignores upbeat comments from Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco who said, “Oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts.”

Elsewhere, chatters of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as signaled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), appeared to have favored the risk-on mood. Also positive for the mood were headlines suggesting improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai. However, the increased count of the US lawmakers who is visiting Taiwan challenges the sentiment.

It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s latest run-up appeared to justify the US dollar’s broad weakness amid softer inflation data. The reason could be linked to the hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers.

On Friday, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed firmer but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83%, but remains sidelined at around 2.84% at the latest.

Looking forward, Canada’s inflation numbers and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be crucial for the USD/CAD pair traders. However, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions.

Technical analysis

USD/CAD bears remain hopeful until the quote stays below the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.2805.

• NZD/USD grinds higher after refreshing two-month low on Friday.
• NZIER Shadow Board joins market expectations to recommend 50 bps RBNZ rate hike.
• Easing inflation fears highlight Fed minutes for clear directions.
• China data dump could direct intraday moves, risk catalysts are important too.

NZD/USD remains sidelined around mid-0.6400s, after posting the biggest weekly gains in two years, as traders remain cautious ahead of the key data/events. In doing so, the Kiwi pair paid a little heed to the recently hawkish comments from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Shadow Board during Monday’s initial Asian session.

NZIER Shadow Board recently recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should hike the OCR by 50 basis points in August and follow up with further tightening. The NZD/USD pair traders appeared to already know the same and hence ignored the news ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement, today’s monthly data dump from China.

In addition to the pre-RBNZ anxiety, mixed headlines surrounding China and the US also troubled NZD/USD traders in extending the previous weekly gains.

A probable meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as signaled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), appeared to have favored the risk-on mood. Also positive for the mood were headlines suggesting improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai.

However, the increased count of the US lawmakers who is visiting Taiwan challenges the sentiment.

During the last week, softer prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producers Price Index (PPI) managed to ease the market’s fears and favored the Antipodeans. In addition to that, the hawkish bias for this week’s RBNZ offered additional help to the NZD/USD bulls in leading the G10 currency pairs.

Even so, Even so, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

With this, Wall Street closed firmer but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83%, but remains sidelined at around 2.84% at the latest.

Looking forward, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision, amid hopes of a 0.50% rate hike. Also important will be to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Technical analysis

A downward sloping resistance line from late April, around 0.6455 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the NZD/USD bulls amid nearly overbought RSI. The same requires the Kiwi pair buyers to remain cautious while the sellers can expect a pullback towards the high marked in mid-June around 0.6395.

Amin H. Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said on Sunday that he expects “oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts.”

Additional comments

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER, the Shadow Board, recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should hike the OCR by 50 basis points in August and follow up with further tightening.

Key takeaways

Market reaction

NZD/USD remains pressured near-daily lows of 0.6446, at the time of writing, down 0.09% on the day. Looming US-China risks over Taiwan remain a major concern for the market at the start of the week.

• AUD/USD bulls attack 200-DMA, sidelined near two-month high.
• Market sentiment dwindles ahead of the key data/events, amid mixed updates surrounding China, US.
• Softer US inflation numbers weighed on hawkish Fed bets but policymakers backed aggressive rate hikes, highlighting this week’s Fed Minutes.
• China’s monthly Retail Sales, Industrial Production can entertain intraday traders, RBA Minutes, Aussie jobs report will be crucial.

AUD/USD grinds higher past 0.7100 as traders await the key catalysts scheduled for release during the day, as well as the week, after buyers cheered the biggest weekly jump since late 2020. That said, China’s monthly data dump could direct intraday moves while Minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be important for the weekly moves. Also critical will be the monthly employment numbers from Australia.

The Aussie pair posted the biggest weekly gains in nearly two years as market sentiment improved on receding hawkish bets on the Fed’s next moves, mainly due to the softer US inflation data. Also keeping the AUD/USD bulls hopeful was an absence of major negatives concerning the US-China ties, as well as firmer equities and softer bond yields.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producers Price Index (PPI) both the top-tier inflation gauges from the US eased in July, which in turn took some pressure off the Fed policymakers to boost the rates faster amid the looming recession woes. As a result, markets cheered the receding fears of higher rates, which in turn joined the upbeat performance of Wall Street and softer bond coupons to propel the AUD/USD prices despite softer Inflation Expectations for August at home.

Recently, the August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged higher to 55.1 (flash) from 51.5 in July and the market expectation of 52.5. Further details revealed that the one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while the five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Even so, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

 Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed on the positive side and the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83% at the latest.

Moving on, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Also important will be Tuesday’s RBA Minutes, Australia’s Wage Price Index for the second quarter, up for publishing on Wednesday, as well as Thursday’s Aussie jobs report.

Given the latest risk-on mood, as well as mixed headlines surrounding China and the US, AUD/USD traders should cheer hints of further rate hikes from the RBA and the Fed’s cautious mood.

Also read: Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Technical analysis

Repeated failures to cross the 200-DMA hurdle, surrounding 0.7120, join the sluggish RSI at the higher end to suggest that the AUD/USD bulls are running out of steam. The pullback moves, however, remain elusive until the quote stays beyond the previous resistance line from late April, at 0.6990 by the press time.

• EUR/USD remains sidelined after ending the week on a negative note, despite refreshing monthly peak.
• Convergence of 21-DMA, one-month-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside.
• Descending resistance line from May-end guards immediate upside, three-month-old ascending trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement appears tough nut to crack for bulls.
• MACD, RSI hints at the pair’s further upside momentum.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.0260 after a softer end to the positive week, amid cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

The major currency pair’s latest moves are clubbed between the 1.0220 support and the 1.0315 resistance levels.

That said, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line restricts the immediate downside. On the contrary, the 50-DMA and Descending resistance line from late May questions the EUR/USD bulls.

It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) line, not overbought, appear to keep the buyers hopeful.

That said, a clear upside break of the 1.0315 hurdle could propel the quote towards an upward sloping support-turned-resistance line from mid-May and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May-July downside, near 1.0375.

On the flip side, a daily closing below 1.0220 appears necessary for the EUR/USD bears to retake control.

Following that, multiple levels around 1.0120 and 1.0100 could challenge the pair’s further downside.

In a case where the EUR/USD pair remains weak past 1.0100, the 1.0000 parity level and the yearly low of 0.9952 will be in focus.

Overall, EUR/USD buyers are in the driver’s seat but the road to the north appears bumpy.

EUR/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

• Gold price ended the week on a firmer footing as inflation numbers drowned the US dollar.
• Fed policymakers tried to defend the hawks but markets awaited FOMC Minutes for confirmation.
• Hint on the size of the next rate hike will be closely watched in the Minutes.
• China’s monthly data dump will offer immediate directions amid mixed Sino-American updates, easing of covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto the recent upside momentum around $1,800 as it begins the weekly trading around a monthly high, after a four-week uptrend. That said, the metal’s latest advances could be linked to the market’s receding hawkish bias on the Fed’s next move considering the latest softness in the headline inflation data, despite the hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers.

Be it the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producers Price Index (PPI), both the top-tier inflation gauges from the US have eased in July. The same took some pressure off the Fed policymakers to boost the rates faster amid the looming recession woes. The same joined the absence of major negatives from the geopolitical front to help build the market’s sentiment and favor the XAU/USD bulls.

That said, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to bring inflation under control. Even so, the policymaker added that he will watch the US economic data to decide how big a rate hike to support at the Fed's next meeting in September. "I'd like to see a period of sustained inflation under control, and until we do that I think we are just going to have to move rates into restrictive territory," Barkin told CNBC, per Reuters.

While data this week showing inflation did not accelerate in July was "welcome," Barkin said, he would want to see inflation running at the Fed's 2% target for "some time" before stopping rate hikes.

Previously San Francisco Fed President Mary Day backed opportunities of witnessing another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike in September, while also suggesting an upfront 0.50% rate hike to be sure.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans sounded grim. That said, Fed’s Kashkari mentioned that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Further, Fed policymaker Evens stated, “The economy is almost surely a little more fragile, but would take something adverse to trigger a recession.” Fed’s Evans also called inflation "unacceptably" high.

It’s worth noting that the August preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) edged higher to 55.1 (flash) from 51.5 in July and the market expectation of 52.5. Further details revealed that the one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while the five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Elsewhere, mixed updates surrounding the US-China tussles and the Biden-Xi meeting, as well as easing covid-led restrictions in Shanghai appeared to have offered a quiet start to the week.

Also read: Weekend News: China, Taiwan gain major attention

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed on the positive side and the US 10-year Treasury yields closed mildly negative, down 5.6 basis points (bps) to 2.83% at the latest.

Looking forward, China’s monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July will offer immediate directions. However, major attention will be given to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Technical analysis

Gold price remains successfully above the 50-DMA nearby support, around $1,782 by the press time, even after retreating from a one-month-old resistance line, close to $1,814 at the latest.

Given the firmer RSI and the MACD signals, the XAU/USD bulls are likely on the way to crossing the immediate hurdle.

However, the RSI line approaches the overbought region and hence a downward sloping resistance line from late April, near $1,825, could be a tough nut to crack for the gold buyers.

Even if the bulls manage to cross the $1,825 resistance line, a convergence of the 200-DMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downside, near $1,840-43, will be a major challenge for the XAU/USD bulls.

Meanwhile, a downside break of the 50-DMA support around $1,782, could quickly fetch the quote towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,755.

Following that, the $1,714 and the $1,700 threshold could entertain the gold bears before directing them to the yearly low near $1,680.

Gold: XAI/USD chart

Trend: Further upside expected

Having heard inflation as the major catalyst during the last week, geopolitical factors surrounding the US-China ties and the covid woes in Beijing are back in focus after the latest developments. Headlines surrounding the US tax bill’s passage and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s readiness for review also crossed wires and seemed interesting too.

Among them, a Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) piece suggesting a probable meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping gained a major attention.

The news said, “Chinese officials are making plans for Xi Jinping to visit Southeast Asia and meet face-to-face with President Biden in November, according to people familiar with the preparations, in what would mark the Chinese leader’s first international trip in nearly three years and his first in-person meeting with Mr. Biden since the American leader’s inauguration.”

On the other hand, Nikkei Asia came out with the news suggesting the increased count of the US lawmakers who are visiting Taiwan after the dramatic visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. “A delegation of American lawmakers is visiting Taiwan just 12 days after a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that angered China,” said the news.

Nikkei Asia also added that the five-member delegation, led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet senior leaders to discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade, investment and other issues, the American Institute in Taiwan said.

Elsewhere, Reuters conveyed improved coronavirus conditions in China's financial hub Shanghai as the policymakers announced, per the news, that they will reopen all primary, middle and high schools, kindergartens and nurseries on September 1 after months of COVID-19 closures. “Shanghai shut all schools in mid-March before the city's two-month lockdown to combat its worst COVID outbreak in April and May,” Reuters added.

It should be noted that the US House passed the Climate and Tax Bill and sends it to Biden.

On a different page, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey would be “open to a review” of the central bank’s mandate after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss criticized its approach to inflation, the Telegraph reported, citing a person familiar with the situation, per Bloomberg.

Bailey’s reported remarks follow comments by Truss to the Telegraph this month that she would “look again” at the BOE’s mandate “to make sure it is tough enough on inflation,” per Bloomberg News. The piece also mentioned that price gains are currently approaching double digits and forecast to peak at 13.3% in October, more than six times the BOE’s target.”

Also read: Gold Weekly Forecast: Next direction depends on September Fed hike bets