It was a busy day again for US investors as they had to pay attention to many US data from the macro calendar. However, it started badly as US retail sales disappointed across the board and decelerated notably. The basic gauge slowed from 0.7% to 0.1%, whilst the control core group moved lower from 0.8% to 0.1% and the ex auto indicator decelerated to 0.3% from 0.9%.

Afterward, industrial production stayed at 0.4% month-on-month, which was slightly positive and capacity utilization ticked higher from 77.9% to 78.1%.

Shortly after, the Michigan consumer sentiment index soared to 14 year highs and printed 100.8, way above 96.2 in the previous month as consumers remain extremely optimistic about the US economy.

The latest number lifted the US dollar higher and it erased all daily losses and turned positive as the broad US dollar index was trading 0.25% higher in the US session.

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,950.0 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2018 and were up 4.3 percent (±1.3 percent) from July 2017.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.34. The July 2017 ratio was 1.39.

• Quite Normal For Fed To Eventually Move To Restrictive Policy

• Sees 3% GDP This Year, Closer To 2% In 2019, 2020

• Sees Inflation Moving Over 2%, But Isn't Worried

Manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent on the strength of a 4.0 percent rise for motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies jumped to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April. Excluding the gain in motor vehicles and parts, factory output was unchanged. The output of utilities advanced 1.2 percent, and mining production increased 0.7 percent; the index for mining last decreased in January. At 108.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.9 percent higher in August than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up in August to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.

U.S. stock-index futures edged up on Friday on optimism over potential U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Wal-Mart (WMT) resumed with a Neutral at Goldman; target $101

U.S. import prices declined 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.1-percent decrease the previous month. Falling prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the August decline. Prices for U.S. exports edged down 0.1 percent, after decreasing 0.5
percent in July.
Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.1 percent in August, after declining 0.5 percent in July. The July downturn was the first monthly drop since June 2017. In August, lower prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset higher agricultural prices. The price index for overall exports advanced 3.6 percent for the year ended in August and has not recorded a 12-month decline since a 0.2-percent decrease in November 2016.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $509.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month, and 6.6 percent above August 2017.

Total sales for the June 2018 through August 2018 period were up 6.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The June 2018 to July 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.7 percent.

Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent from July 2018, and 6.2 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Gasoline Stations were up 20.3 percent from August 2017, while Nonstore Retailers were up 10.4 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year.

Today, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 0.25 pp to 7.50% per annum. Changes in external conditions observed since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors have significantly increased proinflationary risks. The Bank of Russia forecasts annual inflation to be 5-5.5% in 2019 and return to 4% in 2020. This forecast takes into account the decisions taken with regard to the key rate and to the suspension of foreign currency purchases in the domestic market under the fiscal rule. The Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of further increases in the key rate, taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast, as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.

• UK Pay Growth Is Picking Up

The first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in July 2018 was €194.6 billion, an increase of 9.4% compared with July 2017 (€177.8 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €177.1 bn, a rise of 13.4% compared with July 2017 (€156.2 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €17.6 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July 2018, compared with +€21.6 bn in July 2017. Intra-euro area trade rose to €162.3 bn in July 2018, up by 9.3% compared with July 2017.

In January to July 2018, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world rose to €1 319.3 bn (an increase of 4% compared with January-July 2017), while imports rose to €1 200.8 bn (an increase of 5.1% compared with JanuaryJuly 2017). As a result the euro area recorded a surplus of €118.5 bn, compared with +€125.3 bn in January-July 2017. Intra-euro area trade rose to €1 143.3 bn in January-July 2018, up by 6% compared with January-July 2017

The current system of world trade is not ideal, and China supports it's reforms, including the World Trade Organization (WTO) to make it more fair and effective, said one of Beijing's leading diplomats.

China is locked in the rigid framework of the trade war with the United States and has repeatedly vowed to support the multilateral trading system, free trade and WTO.

But speaking late Thursday afternoon to journalists, after meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Deryan, China's State Counselor Wang Yi said that some reforms are needed that can be effective.

Despite certain doubts about the current international trading system, "China has always supported the protection of free trade and believes that multilateral ties with the WTO should be strengthened".

New Zealand's manufacturing expansion remained in low gear for the third consecutive month, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for August was 52.0 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). While this was 0.8 points higher than July, it remains below the long run average expansion level of 53.4.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that in a similar vein to July, the August results were a mixed bag.

Retail sales in China spiked 9.0 percent on year in August, according to rttnews.

That topped forecasts for an increase of 8.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the July reading.

The bureau also said that industrial production advanced an annual 6.1 percent - matching forecasts and up from 6.0 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment was up 5.3 percent on year, shy of expectations for 5.6 percent and down from 5.5 percent a month earlier.

Finally, the surveyed jobless rate came in at 5.0 percent - down from 5.1 percent in July.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1823 (3595)

$1.1799 (896)

$1.1780 (448)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1696

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1653 (1781)

$1.1617 (3815)

$1.1577 (5748)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 89484 contracts (according to data from September, 13) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5748);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3219 (1716)

$1.3197 (724)

$1.3174 (348)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3114

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3066 (942)

$1.3012 (577)

$1.2980 (986)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 15 is 27227 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3065);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 29111 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2490);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 13.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.