Oil advanced after economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest crude-consuming nation, surged at the fastest pace in more than a decade in the third quarter.
West Texas Intermediate advanced as much as 2.9 percent in New York, while Brent gained as much as 2.3 percent in London. Gross domestic product grew at a 5 percent annual rate from July through September, the biggest advance since 2003, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Futures pared gains as a gauge of the dollar climbed to a five-year high.
Oil is set for the biggest annual loss since 2008 amid the highest U.S. output in more than three decades and signs of slowing global demand growth. U.S. crude supplies probably fell for a second week, a Bloomberg survey showed before government data tomorrow. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, doesn't plan to pump less "whatever the price is," Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi told the Middle East Economic Survey yesterday.
"We had a strong GDP number today and that implies a certain amount of demand that we weren't looking for previously," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, said by phone. "We're getting some headwinds from the dollar, which is at multiyear highs, but I think the strong GDP will keep us higher."
WTI for February delivery increased 59 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $55.85 a barrel at 10:09 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was about 8.7 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Futures are down 43 percent this year.
Brent for February settlement gained 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $60.56 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 41 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 45 percent in 2014. The European benchmark traded at a $4.71 premium to WTI.
Gold prices rise with marked on the eve of a three-week low.
Liquidity in the market decreased in the absence of Japanese players and on Christmas Eve, and traders watch the movement of the stock and foreign exchange markets and oil.
The growth of the stock price and the dollar weaken demand for gold as a low-risk asset and the decline in oil prices makes the precious metal less attractive as a hedge against inflation.
US stock indices S & P 500 and Dow Jones finished Monday at historic highs, and the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies close to nine-year peak.
Today was published a large block of US statistics, which caused a stronger dollar and curb the rise in gold prices.
US Department of Commerce to improve the estimate of GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2014 from 3.9% to 5%, based on the annual rate, according to final figures released. Analysts on average expected increase to 4.3%. Growth in July-September was the most significant since the third quarter of 2003.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, rose in the 3rd quarter by 3.2%, adding 2.5 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth, whereas previously reported an increase of 2 2%. Their growth, in particular, explained the highest for several years increased spending on durable goods - by 9.2% (8.7% in the previous report, the Ministry of Trade). In early 2015 the rise in this segment is likely to accelerate due to the low gasoline prices and the situation on the labor market.
Consumer confidence in the US in December 2014 rose to 93.6 points from 88.8 in November level points, according to final data, University of Michigan, which calculates the figure. Value of the indicator was revised downward from the preliminary estimated at 93.8 points, but remained the highest since January 2007. Analysts had expected a reduction estimates to 93.5 points.
Growth in consumer confidence in the US reflects mainly lower energy prices, improvements in the labor market and higher salaries. The Fall of the cost of gasoline allows Americans to send more money to buy other goods and services - it allows you to count on increasing consumer spending in the holiday season.
Will support the demand for gold gives physical markets in Asia. Margins in Shanghai rose to $ 5 per ounce to the price in London at $ 03.02 on Monday.
According to the IMF, Russia in November increased gold reserves of the eighth month in a row, while Ukraine has reduced stocks for the second month in a row.
The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1184.90 dollars per ounce.
U.S. stock-index futures rose as data showed the world's largest economy surged in the third quarter.
Global markets:
Nikkei 17,635.14 +13.74 +0.08%
Hang Seng 23,333.69 -74.88 -0.32%
Shanghai Composite 3,035.01 -92.44 -2.96%
FTSE 6,597.35 +20.61 +0.31%
CAC 4,300.38 +45.95 +1.08%
DAX 9,902.9 +37.14 +0.38%
Crude oil $56.65 (+2.50%)
Gold $1178.10 (-0.14%)
(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 59.00 | +0.07% | 0.3K |
Intel Corp | INTC | 37.25 | +0.11% | 0.3K |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 32.13 | +0.12% | 1.1K |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 42.40 | +0.12% | 0.6K |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 47.57 | +0.13% | 1.5K |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 62.05 | +0.18% | 4.3K |
AT&T Inc | T | 33.95 | +0.30% | 3.3K |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 92.60 | +0.30% | 10.9K |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 94.17 | +0.30% | 0.5K |
3M Co | MMM | 167.79 | +0.31% | 0.1K |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 162.00 | +0.35% | 6.0K |
Nike | NKE | 96.28 | +0.36% | 0.1K |
Boeing Co | BA | 128.75 | +0.41% | 3.8K |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 93.84 | +0.55% | 8.5K |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 113.20 | +1.04% | 2.1K |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 28.22 | 0.00% | 3.7K |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 103.50 | 0.00% | 0.3K |
General Electric Co | GE | 25.70 | -0.04% | 16.0K |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 94.12 | -0.08% | 0.3K |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 47.86 | -0.25% | 3.1K |
Upgrades:
Downgrades:
Other:
Yahoo! (YHOO) target raised to $60 from $57 at Topeka Capital Markets
Starbucks (SBUX) named a Top Pick for 2015 at Piper Jaffray
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2380, $1.2340-50, $1.2305/00
Bids $1.2215, $1.2200
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5800, $1.5785, $1.5700, $1.5630
Offers $1.5500
AUD/USD
Offers $0.8300, $0.8250, $0.8200
Offers $0.8090, $0.8050, $0.8000
EUR/JPY
Offers Y148.50, Y148.00, Y147.50
Offers Y146.00, Y145.50, Y145.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y121.20, Y121.00, Y120.50
Offers Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.25, Y118.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.7950/55, stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7860
Offers stg0.7800, stg0.7700
European indices extended gains for a sixth day amid a global end-of-year rally tracking gains in the U.S. markets as volumes thin out near the end of the year. French consumer spending was better-than expected. But Greece's parliament failing in a second attempt electing a new president and U.K's deficit raising weighed on the markets paring earlier gains. IF Greek Prime Minister Samaras fails in the third and final vote on December 29th parliament will be dissolved and early elections will be held. Investors now await a set of important data today, including the GDP's final revision for the third Quarter along with new homes sales, consumer spending and durable goods. The report may show that the U.S. GDP grew more in the last quarter than anticipated.
In today's session the FTSE 100 index added +0.33% quoted at 6,598.17 points, France's CAC 40 gained +0.67% trading at 4,282.77. Germany's DAX 30 is currently trading +0.19% at 9,884.78 points.
Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are trading higher today rebounding from yesterday's decline. Yesterday Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said OPEC's biggest producer will seek to maintain market share and that global demand growth this year was slower than expected. Iraq plans to boost its production next year, Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said. Trading volatility stayed at the highest level in more than three years.
Oil has slumped about 21 percent since OPEC decided against cutting its production target last month, prompting a plunge in the value of currencies from the Russian ruble to the Norwegian krone. Prices have tumbled by half since June amid surging production and slower-than-expected demand growth. Output in the U.S. is the highest in three decades.
Today prices stabilized as markets expect firm data from the United States, the world's largest consumer of oil. The OPEC sees oil prices to rebound to USD70-USD80 by the end of next year on a growing world economy.
Brent Crude added +1.15%, currently trading at USD60.80 a barrel after its new lows from last Friday. West Texas Intermediate rose +1.57% currently quoted at USD56.13.
Gold prices recovered from yesterday's slump in prices which was partly due to the release of data on the US housing market, which disappointed the markets. Sales of existing homes in November fell to a six-month low. This is a sign that the housing market continues to lag, despite the surge in employment and accelerate economic growth. Gold today was gaining ground from 3-week lows as a strong U.S. dollar and stock markets in rally-mode continue to weigh on the precious metal. All eyes are now on U.S. data being published later in the day including GDP for the third quarter, durable goods orders and new homes sales.
Trading volumes are expected to be low this week which could lead to volatile and erratic markets. The precious metal is currently quoted at USD1,179.20, +0,69% a troy ounce.
GOLD currently trading at USD1,179.20
EUR/USD: $1.2200(E708mn), $1.2230(E540mn), $1.2300(E1.3bn), $1.2320(E590mn)
USD/JPY: Y119.00($380mn), Y119.50($280mn), Y120.00($528mn)
GBP/USD: $1.5600(stg1.3bn)
EUR/GBP: stg0.7850(E175mn), stg0.7920(E277mn)
USD/CHF: Chf0.9800($800mn)
AUD/USD: $0.8250(A$1.5bn)
NZD/USD: $0.7800(NZ$1.8bn)
USD/CAD: C$1.1545($482mn)
REUTERS
Australian dollar hits 4-1/2-year low on China growth worries
(Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit a 4-1/2-year trough against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as prices of iron for construction fell in China amid weak demand from the property sector and after Australia's premier warned of heightened "terrorist chatter".
Following the siege in a Sydney cafe a week ago, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the public must remain alert as the country headed into Christmas and New Year celebrations, helping to prod lower an Aussie dollar already weakened by the data from China.
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0K000720141223
BLOOMBERG
Greek Drama Draws Market Scrutiny as ECB Impact Weighed
Intraday volatility on the Greek ASE Index (ASE) and the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged to double their annual average last week after Prime Minster Antonis Samaras failed to win two-thirds support in parliament for his candidate to succeed President Karolos Papoulias. A second of three potential ballots is scheduled for today at noon. Greece's benchmark stock gauge dropped 1.8 percent at 11:04 a.m. in Athens today.
Anxiety that voters will kick out leaders committed to Greece's bailout wreaked havoc on equities earlier this month, sending the ASE down 20 percent for its biggest weekly slump since 1987. The losses followed Samaras's decision to seek parliamentary support for candidate Stavros Dimas, a procedure that may end up spurring national elections. Losing would empower Syriza, the opposition party that seeks a writedown on Greek debt held by the European Central Bank and others.
BLOOMBERG
Ukraine Cuts Gold Reserve to Nine-Year Low as Russia Buys
Ukraine reduced gold reserves for a second month to the lowest since August 2005 as Russia bought bullion for an eighth month to take its holdings to the highest in at least two decades, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Ukraine's holdings fell to 23.6 metric tons in November from 26.1 tons in October, data on the IMF's website showed. Reserves in Russia climbed to about 1,187.5 tons in November from 1,168.7 tons a month earlier, according to the data.
European indices extended gains for a sixth day amid a global end-of-year rally tracking gains in the U.S. markets as volumes thin out near the end of the year. Investors will be looking to Greece today where the second round of voting for a president will be held in parliament. In the first round Prime Minister Samaras failed to achieve the two-thirds majority for his candidate. Investors will also look closely on a set of important data in the U.K published at 9:30 GMT and in the U.S. The report may show that the U.S. GDP grew more in the last quarter than anticipated.
The FTSE 100 index is currently trading +0.63% quoted at 6,618.27 points, Germany's DAX 30 added +0.35% trading at 9,900.72. France's CAC 40 rose by +0.57%, currently trading at 4,278.85 points. France's consumer spending was better-than-expected with a reading of +0.4% compared to forecasts of +0.2%. GDP on a quarterly basis was in line with expectations reading +0.3% for the third quarter. On a yearly basis the GDP declined from +0.8% to +0.4%.
U.S. markets closed higher on Friday for a fourth consecutive session despite disappointing data on Existing Home sales and ahead of a set of important data today, including the GDP's final revision for the third Quarter along with new homes sales, consumer spending and durable goods.. The DOW JONES added +0.87% closing at 17,959.44 points, only 41 points short of the 18,000 points mark. The S&P 500 added +0.38% with a final quote of 2,078.54. It was the 50th record closing high for the index this year. Markets continue to be broadly supported by the FED's "patient" approach to hike benchmark interest rates.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined by -0.36% to 23,323.18 points. China's Shanghai Composite closed at 3,035.01 points, a slump of -2.96% after investors took profit after the recent rally.
Japan's Nikkei was closed today due to a holiday.
Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual
00:00 Japan Bank holiday
02:00 China Leading Index November +0.8% +0.9%
The greenback traded stronger against its major peers in Asian trade and continues to be supported by the FED's decision not to raise interest rates before April 2015 while other major countries are likely to maintain monetary stimulus. After yesterday's disappointing data on Existing Home Sales markets await a rush of U.S. data today. Analysts expect strong data further fuelling the U.S. dollar's climb. Third quarters GDP is expected to be revised up resulting in an annualized economic growth above 4% further highlighting the diverging economic and policy outlooks between the U.S. and Europe and Japan.
The Australian dollar continued its fall against the U.S. dollar currently trading at USD0.8103 with new lows at USD0.8087, the weakest since 2010 as falling commodity prices weigh on the nations growth outlook. Iron ore is trading close to 5-1/2 year lows. Markets await the Australian Leading Index being published late today at 23:00 GMT.
New Zealand's dollar lost against the greenback for a third. New Zealand's Trade Balance for November showed a reading of -213 compared to forecasts of -550.
The Japanese yen traded weaker during the Asian session back around USD120 reaching a new two-week low but still short of its 7-½ year low set earlier this month . Today there is a holiday in Japan.
EUR/USD: the euro added small gains against the greenback
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar traded stronger against the yen
GPB/USD: The British pound lost against the U.S. dollar
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
07:45 France Consumer spending November -0.9% +0.2%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y November -0.2%
07:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.1% +0.3%
07:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter III +0.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -23.1 -21.1
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals November 37.1 37.3
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +0.7% +0.7%
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +3.0% +3.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.7% -0.7%
09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +6.3% +6.3%
13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) October +0.4% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +2.2%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.4%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders November +0.3% Revised From +0.4% +3.0%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation November -1.1% Revised From -0.9% +1.1%
13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense November -0.6%
13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +3.9% +4.3%
14:00 Belgium Business Climate December -6.1 -5.8
14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m November 0.0% +0.3%
14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y November +4.3%
14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) December 93.8 93.5
15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index December 4 8
15:00 U.S. New Home Sales November 458 461
15:00 U.S. Personal Income, m/m November +0.2% +0.6%
15:00 U.S. Personal spending November +0.2% +0.5%
15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m November +0.2% +0.1%
15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y November +1.6%
21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December +1.9
23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index October -0.3%
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2368 (2029)
$1.2317 (352)
$1.2268 (210)
Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2229
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2195 (2264)
$1.2162 (6132)
$1.2140 (2862)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 55296 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6347);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 60467 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (6871);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5901 (2075)
$1.5802 (2142)
$1.5705 (2440)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5585
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5494 (1686)
$1.5396 (897)
$1.5298 (1227)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 24126 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4278);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 19300 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5550 (1965);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.81 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.