The euro rose against the dollar, demonstrating the first gain for the week, which was associated with falling yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds, which is a signal that the banking crisis of Cyprus may be restrained.
The strengthening of the euro contributed to a safe return to work after the Bank of Cyprus to exercise greater control over the movement of bank capital.
We add that the growth of the European currency also helped the weak U.S. data. According to the U.S. Department of Labor report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of March 17-23, increased by 16, 000 and with the seasonally adjusted to 357 000. This is higher than the forecast of economists, who expected that the number of applications was 340,000. The number of initial claims is an indicator of layoffs. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, March 10-16, was revised to 341,000 from 334 00. Published data are probably a sign that the labor market is to some extent lost its momentum.
In addition, the data would be submitted and the U.S. Commerce Department, which showed that the GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 0.1% growth. The Ministry of Labour has emphasized that economic activity in the U.S. in the last three months of 2012 increased at a faster pace than previously estimated. But despite the upward revision, GDP growth rates were still lower than estimates of economists who had expected an increase of 0.5%. GDP growth will provide strong business expenses, indicating that companies are intensifying, despite the uncertainty in Washington. Despite the growth in the last quarter of 2012, GDP growth is the weakest level since the beginning of the recovery in the second half of 2009. The economy so far has been growing for 14 consecutive quarters, and for all of last year's GDP grew by 2.2%. But, at the same time, there are signs that the economy in 2013 sat down with the building - good signs coming from the housing market, which shows further improvement, while the unemployment rate is falling.
The British pound rose against the dollar amid mixed statistics. Activity in the UK service sector grew in January at the fastest pace since August. Index of services the UK in January rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 0.8% compared with the same period last year. Increase of activity in the service sector contributed business services, and financial and government services. Another report showed that house prices in the UK continued to rise in March. According to one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, increase the availability of credit, together with the limited supply of housing will increase prices compared to the same period of the previous year for the first time in more than 12 months. House price index in March Nationwide unchanged compared to February, but rose by 0.8% compared to March 2012. This is the first annual increase since February last year, when the index rose by 0.9%.
European stocks were little changed this week as uncertainty in Cyprus and a political deadlock in Italy overshadowed better-than-estimated U.S. and German economic data.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 0.1 percent in a four-day week before the Easter holiday, after declining the most in four months the previous week.
In Europe, German retail sales unexpectedly climbed in February, rising 0.4 percent. That followed a revised 3 percent in January and compared to the median economist forecast for a 0.6 percent decline.
National benchmark indexes still fell in 14 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 6,411.74 +24.18 +0.38% CAC 40 3,731.42 +19.78 +0.53% DAX 7,795.31 +6.22 +0.08%
Espirito Santo (BES), Portugal’s biggest publicly traded bank, plunged 12 percent in Lisbon. Banco Comercial Portugues SA, the second-largest, lost 10 percent.
Kazakhmys Plc tumbled 16 percent as it cut its 2012 dividend by 60 percent to 11 cents a share and reported a full- year loss after the value of its stake in Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. dropped by more than half.
Telefonica SA slumped 8.3 percent after Spain’s biggest telephone operator sold about 975 million euros worth of treasury stock to help reduce its debt.
Ziggo rallied 13 percent after John Malone’s Liberty Global paid about 632.5 million euros for a stake in the Dutch cable- television operator from Barclays Plc after the U.K. lender last week failed to find enough buyers in a share sale.
Prices for WTI crude oil rose, approaching with up to a five-week high, as the data presented showed that the U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter, more than previously estimated. Also influenced by the dynamics of trade report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits.
Note that according to the third and final evaluation of the Ministry of Commerce, GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous reporting 0.1% growth. The Ministry also stressed that economic activity in the U.S. in the last three months of 2012 has increased more rapidly than previously thought. But despite the upward revision, GDP growth rates were still lower than estimates of economists who had expected an increase of 0.5%. GDP growth will provide strong business expenses, indicating that companies are intensifying, despite the uncertainty in Washington.
Despite the growth in the last quarter of 2012, GDP growth is the weakest level since the beginning of the recovery in the second half of 2009. The economy so far has been growing for 14 consecutive quarters, and for all of last year's GDP grew by 2.2%.
We also add that the data that was presented the U.S. Labor Department showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of March 17-23, increased by 16, 000 and with the seasonally adjusted to 357 000. This is higher than the forecast of economists, who expected that the number of applications was 340,000. The number of initial claims is an indicator of layoffs. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, March 10-16, was revised to 341,000 from 334 00. Published data are probably a sign that the labor market is to some extent lost its momentum.
Recall that yesterday's report from the Department of Energy showed that the overall demand for oil in the U.S. rose by 6.2% last week, reaching a level of 18.9 million barrels a day, which is the highest level since February 8.
May futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 96,92 dollars per barrel.
May futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 42 cents to $109.36 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
The price of gold fell sharply, down with below $ 1600, as the banks in Cyprus opened again, that was the first time in the last two weeks. However, despite this, a significant public panic absent, undermining demand for low-risk assets.
Recall that last week, the price of gold reached a monthly high of $ 1,616.36 on fears that financial aid for Cyprus in the amount of $ 10 billion left the majority of investors and private bond holders with huge losses, which could also be a template for future bank bailout in the euro area.
But, despite the widespread belief that the crisis in Cyprus can lead metal to second consecutive quarterly decline, many analysts now expect an increase in prices in anticipation of the holiday of Passover.
In euro terms, gold prices are sent to the monthly growth rate, which is about 3.5 percent, which is the best monthly figure since July.
We also add that the data presented today showed that the gold reserves in the fund SPDR Gold Trust, which is the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, yesterday remained unchanged at 1,221.260 tonnes. Note that the fund, which accounts for about 40 percent of total ETF holdings, record its largest quarterly outflow since its inception
In the short term, gold prices are likely to be supported by the comments of the Federal Reserve, which stressed that the U.S. central bank will do everything possible to keep the amount of asset purchases at the current level of $ 85mlrd. per month, while the situation on the labor market does not show signs of significant improvement.
April futures price of gold on the COMEX fell to 1597.00 dollars per ounce.
Canadian
producer prices in February posted the largest monthly gain since June 2008,
much stronger than expected, led by higher prices for petroleum and coal
products.
The
industrial product price index jumped 1.4% following a revised 0.1% gain in
January, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
The
consensus call was for a 0.5% increase, according to a report from Royal Bank
of
Petroleum
and coal products prices were up 6.6%, the biggest gain since March 2011, as
costs of gasoline and diesel fuel increased.
Prices for
motor vehicles and other transportation equipment were up 1.0% as the Canadian
dollar weakened against the
Meanwhile,
the cost of raw materials used by manufacturers rose a stronger-than-expected
2.2% as crude oil prices increased. The consensus call was for prices to rise
1.8%. January's gain of 3.8% was unrevised.
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2780, $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900
USD/JPY Y93.50, Y93.75, Y94.10, Y94.15, Y94.25, Y94.75, Y95.00, Y95.20, Y96.00, Y96.50
GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5100, $1.5150, $1.5195, $1.5300
AUD/USD $1.0375, $1.0450, $1.0480, $1.0500
Gross
domestic product, the sum total of goods and services produced in the country,
rose 0.2% to 1.56 trillion Canadian dollars ($1.53 trillion) in January,
erasing the prior month's decline of the same magnitude, Statistics Canada said
Thursday.
The
consensus call was for a 0.1% increase, according to a report from Royal Bank
of
Output in
the goods-producing sector expanded 0.4% on the month, thanks to a 1.2%
bounce-back in manufacturing and a 0.2% gain in mining, quarrying and oil and
gas extraction.
The
services-producing sector rose 0.2%, the most since June 2012, as wholesale
trade expanded 0.7%. The arts, entertainment and recreation component snapped a
six-month losing streak to grow 4.1%--the largest increase since February
2010--as the National Hockey League lockout ended.
U.S. stock futures were little changed as data showed jobless claims increased more than forecast and the world’s biggest economy grew less than estimated in the final three months of 2012.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 12,335.96 -157.83 -1.26%
Hang Seng 22,299.63 -165.19 -0.74%
Shanghai Composite 2,236.3 -64.96 -2.82%
FTSE 6,426.62 +39.06 +0.61%
CAC 3,732.07 +20.43 +0.55%
DAX 7,813.75 +24.66 +0.32%
Crude oil $96.38 -0.21%
Gold $1599.90 -0.39%
The report
showed that GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth
quarter compared to the previously reported 0.1 percent increase.
The
Commerce Department said the stronger than previously estimated growth
primarily reflected upward revisions to non-residential fixed investment and to
exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.
Despite the
upward revision, the pace of GDP growth still came in below economist estimates
for an increase of 0.6 percent.
The
upwardly revised pace of GDP growth in the fourth quarter also still reflects a
substantial slowdown from the 3.1 percent growth seen in the third quarter.
The report
showed that the pace of consumer spending growth was downwardly revised to 1.8
percent from 2.1 percent, although the increase still reflects an acceleration
from the 1.6 percent growth seen in the third quarter.
The
Commerce Department also said its reading on core consumer prices, which
exclude food and energy prices, rose by an upwardly revised 1.0 percent in the
fourth quarter following a 1.1 percent increase in the third quarter.
Other:
Boeing (BA) target raised to from $82 $88 at Imperial Capital
First-time
claims for
The report
showed that initial jobless claims rose to 357,000, an increase of 16,000 from
the previous week's revised figure of 341,000.
Economists
had expected jobless claims to edge up to 340,000 from the 336,000 originally
reported for the previous week.
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.2% +0.2% +0.0%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March 0.0% +0.9% +0.8%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted February +3.1% -0.5% +0.4%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y February +2.4% -1.3% -2.2%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change March -3 -2 +13
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. March 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y February +3.6% +3.2% +3.3%
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I
11:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment March 1.936 7.01
Growth in the euro reacted safe return to work after the Cyprus banks tightening control over the movement of bank capital.
The single currency fell after the data on the growth of unemployment in Germany and the money supply in the eurozone. In March, the number of unemployed in Germany rose by 13 thousand, although the market is expected to fall by 2 thousand unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9%. In February, retail sales in the country declined by 2.2% y / y growth of 2.5% a month earlier. In monthly terms, sales grew by 0.4% vs. -0.5%. Eurozone reported that the growth rate of broad money aggregate M3 was 3.1% y / y, exceeding the forecast of 3.3%, but slowed down in comparison with before. of 3.5%, and private lending fell by 0.9% y / y, according to the forecast.
Bersani holds today with Italian President Napolitano meeting, during which we will know about the progress made in forming a new coalition government. Otherwise, the country will have to prepare for new elections. Economy Minister Grilli denied rumors of a possible downgrade of Italy.
British pound fluctuates against the dollar amid mixed statistics. Activity in the UK service sector grew in January at the fastest pace since August. Index of services the UK in January rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 0.8% compared with the same period last year. Increase of activity in the service sector contributed business services, and financial and government services. Another report showed that house prices in the UK continued to rise in March. According to one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, increase the availability of credit, together with the limited supply of housing will increase prices compared to the same period of the previous year for the first time in more than 12 months. House price index in March Nationwide unchanged compared to February, but rose by 0.8% compared to March 2012. This is the first annual increase since February last year, when the index rose by 0.9%.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.2754, and then rose to $ 1.2823
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair updated high of $ 1.5176, and then dropped to a new low of $ 1.5111
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new low Y93.86, and then rose to Y94.38
At 12:30 GMT, Canada will release the change in volume of GDP in January, and the index of commodity prices for February. In the U.S. at 12:30 GMT will the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits in March, final data on the change in GDP, the GDP price index, an index of personal consumption expenditures, the main index for personal consumption expenditures 4 quarter, 13:45 GMT Chicago PMI index will be released in March. Finish the day Japan, where the 23:30 GMT will change the volume level of household spending in February, the index of consumer prices in Tokyo, including excluding prices for fresh food and energy prices for March, the consumer price index, including excluding prices for fresh food and energy in February, and will be released at 23:50 GMT preliminary data on industrial production for February.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2930/50, $1.2920, $1.2880/90, $1.2840/50, $1.2820
Bids $1.2750, $1.2735/25, $1.2700
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5240/50, $1.5220/25, $1.5200/10, $1.51080/85
Bids $1.5100/090, $1.5070, $1.5050-40
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0520/30, $1.0500, $1.0485/90, $1.0450/60
Bids $1.0420/15, $1.0410/00, $1.0385/80, $1.0365/60, $1.0355/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y95.50, Y95.10/15, Y94.95/00, Y94.90, Y94.45/50
Bids Y93.85/80, Y93.55/50, Y93.45, Y93.10/05, Y93.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8555/65, stg0.8535/40, stg0.8510, stg0.8500, stg0.8475/85
Bids stg0.8410/00, stg0.8395/90, stg0.8365/60
EUR/JPY
Offers Y122.00, Y121.50/60, Y121.20/30, Y121.00, Y120.75/80
Bids Y119.50, Y119.00, Y118.50
European stocks climbed, extending their third consecutive quarterly gain, as a report showed retail sales unexpectedly increased in Germany last month.
“German retail sales are a positive for market participants ahead of the Easter break,” said Norman Villamin, who helps oversee about $44 billion as European chief investment officer at Coutts & Co. “But they just reinforce the idea that Europe is running a two-speed economy. In Cyprus, banks open for the first time since the onset of its crisis today, and we will focus not on what are likely to be long lines, but rather whether the capital controls are extended beyond the four days proposed.”
D.E Master Blenders 1753 NV surged the most since its initial public offering after the coffee and tea company spun off by Sara Lee Corp. said Joh. A. Benckiser may take it over.
Ziggo NV rose to its highest price in two weeks as Liberty Global Inc. bought a 12.65 percent stake in the Dutch cable- television operator.
FTSE 100 6,403.77 +16.21 +0.25%
CAC 40 3,719.48 +7.84 +0.21%
DAX 7,806.95 +17.86 +0.23%Germany's unemployment increased 13,000 in March from the prior month, the Federal Labor Agency said Thursday. It was forecast to fall by 2,000.
The jobless rate remained unchanged at seasonally adjusted 6.9 percent in March, data showed. The rate came in line with economists' expectations.
The Federal Statistical Office earlier on the day said that the unemployment rate, as per the International Labor Organization measure, stayed unchanged at 5.4 percent in February. The number of unemployed persons remained broadly unchanged at around 2.3 million.
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.2780, $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900
USD/JPY Y94.10, Y94.25, Y94.75, Y95.00, Y95.20, Y96.00, Y96.50
GBP/USD $1.5100, $1.5150, $1.5195, $1.5300
AUD/USD $1.0375, $1.0450, $1.0480, $1.0500
The euro fell sharply against the dollar, while leaving out below $ 1.28, which was the first time in more than four months, as the rescue program for Cyprus and the political stalemate in Italy eroded demand for assets in the region. In addition, the pressure on the currency has had an auction to sell bonds in Italy. Note that Italy has placed new BTP bonds due in June 2018 in the amount of 3.910 billion euros against the plan at a level of 4.3 billion euros. with yields at around 3.65% and the ratio of applications to cover at 1.22.
The single European currency also weakened against most other major currencies after the Swiss bank Pictet & Cie. said the crisis in Cyprus "tarnished" the attractiveness of the region. Note also that the Government of Cyprus is preparing to take aggressive measures to curb capital flight from the country, issued a decree on the control of movement of capital. This decree will be valid for 7 days, beginning on Thursday, and will cease all non-cash transactions in other countries. Cyprus will prohibit the withdrawal of cash from other countries to the tune of more than € 3,000 per person per trip, or an equivalent amount in another currency. Cyprus will also introduce a limit on all transactions using credit cards to 5,000 euros per person per month. Customers of the bank will be able to pay by check, but they can not cash them. They can not withdraw money from time deposits earlier than specified in the contract expire date. This decree requires the unprecedented response. Rules on capital control will apply to all banks in the country, not only to those who are involved in the rescue of Cyprus
In addition, the markets growing concern over the threat of a downgrade of Italy. Investors are awaiting tomorrow's resumption of the Cyprus banks and Bersani talks with Italian President Napolitano on progress in forming a coalition.
The pound rose to a two-month high against the euro, as the financial crisis in Cyprus and the political problems in Italy stimulated demand for the currency of the UK as a safe-haven.
However, in relation to the dollar, the British pound fell, helped by the data provided by the United Kingdom. National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2012, GDP grew by 0.2% compared to the previous year, after rising by 1.0% in 2011. Earlier Bureau estimated the growth in 2012 of 0.3%. In the 4th quarter GDP fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month, as previously reported. The growth in the services sector offset a sharp decline in production in the factories, as well as oil and gas companies in the North Sea. Quarterly growth in the service sector, which accounts for about three quarters of GDP, slowed to zero, while industrial production fell by 2.1%, compared with the previous quarter, which was the most significant reduction since 2009. Production in the mining industry fell by a record 10.7%. The weakening of the economy at the end of last year has given rise to fears that the UK expects third recession in five years.00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence March -27 -27 -26
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.2% +0.3% +0.2%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +3.6% +3.5% +3.4%
The yen gained against all its 16 major peers after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated policy easing options, damping expectations for novel measures to be unveiled as early as next week. Kuroda told lawmakers today that policy makers need to lower the longer end of the so-called yield curve, and that purchases of risk assets may also be needed. The comments echoed lower house testimony on March 26, when Kuroda pledged to buy more government bonds to reach the BOJ’s inflation goal. The central bank will meet on policy on April 3-4. Kuroda spoke to upper house lawmakers today after telling Japan’s lower house earlier this week he aimed to achieve a 2 percent annual inflation goal in two years.
The euro traded 0.3 percent from a four-month low versus the dollar as traders speculated future European bailouts could include the kind of bank deposit levies imposed on Cyprus. Cypriot banks will open their doors to customers today for the first time in almost two weeks, with new rules curbing access to cash. They’ve been closed since March 16, when the European Union presented a plan to force losses on all depositors in exchange for a bailout. A subsequent agreement shuts Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB), the nation’s No. 2 lender, and imposes larger losses on uninsured depositors.
Borrowing costs rose in Spain, Portugal and Italy yesterday, with the Italian 10-year yield at its highest relative to German bunds this year.
Italy is still without a government, a month after inconclusive elections. Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani said there was no chance of a broad coalition to end the political deadlock following nearly a week of talks with rival parties. He will report to President Giorgio Napolitano today with the results of his negotiations.
Australia’s dollar slid along with Asian shares.
Revised figures from the U.S. Commerce Department today may show the economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, faster than the government’s previous estimate of 0.1 percent growth, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Tomorrow is a holiday in most of Europe, the U.S., and much of Asia.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2770-90.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5150.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y93.95.
Change % Change Last
Oil $96.56 -0.02 -0.02%
Gold $1,606.20 0.00 0.00%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 12,493.79 +22.17 +0.18%
Hang Seng 22,464.82 +153.74 +0.69%
S&P/ASX 200 4,994.99 +44.75 +0.90%
Shanghai Composite 2,301.26 +3.59 +0.16%
FTSE 100 6,385.36 -14.01 -0.22%
CAC 40 3,712 -36.64 -0.98%
DAX 7,792.41 -87.26 -1.11%
Dow -33.18 14,526.47 -0.23%
Nasdaq +4.06 3,256.54 +0.12%
S&P -0.56 1,563.21 -0.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2777 -0,61%
GBP/USD $1,5126 -0,20%
USD/CHF Chf0,9538 +0,58%
USD/JPY Y94,37 -0,17%
EUR/JPY Y120,61 -0,75%
GBP/JPY Y142,74 -0,36%
AUD/USD $1,0455 -0,24%
NZD/USD $0,8365 -0,27%
USD/CAD C$1,0163 +0,01%00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence March -26 -27 -26
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m February +0.2% +0.3% +0.2%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y February +3.6% +3.5%
01:00 China Leading Index February 100.50
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.2% +0.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March 0.0% +0.9%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted February +3.1% -0.5%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y February +2.4% -1.3%
08:55 Germany Unemployment Change March -3 -2
08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. March 6.9% 6.9%
09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y February +3.5% +3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter I
11:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment March 1.936
12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m February 0.0% +0.6%
12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index February +3.8% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims March 336 340
12:30 U.S. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, q/q Quarter IV +2.1% +2.1%
12:30 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index, y/y Quarter IV +0.9% +0.9%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) January -0.2% +0.1%
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV +0.1% +0.5%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index March 56.8 56.5
23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI March 48.5
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y February +2.4% +0.4%
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y March -0.9% -0.9%
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y March -0.6% -0.6%
23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate February 4.2% 4.2%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y February -0.3% -0.7%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y February -0.2% -0.4%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) February +0.3% +2.6%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) February -5.8% -8.5%