The euro exchange rate has shown mixed results with respect to the U.S. dollar - highs in the comments Novotny and weak consumer confidence data , and then turned around and went down .
A member of the Governing Council of the ECB Ewald Nowotny in an interview published on Tuesday , it is unlikely that the European Central Bank to further reduce its key interest rate or the deposit rate. The central bank has no plans to take action against the strength of the euro . According to Novotny , a decrease in interest rates is unlikely because there are signs of strengthening economic recovery and the euro zone because "the interest rate cut will not help very much" to the peripheral countries have made the necessary adjustments.
However, Nowotny said the ECB " is prone to loose monetary policy , and there is good reason to stay the course , at least for some time ." He added that the tendency to soft policy is appropriate , "as long as economic growth below potential , and there is no prospect of rising inflation ." However, the authorities and the rest of the " have to put up " with the strong euro.
The results of a monthly survey of consumer confidence , which were submitted to Conference Board, showed that an indicator of consumer confidence fell sharply in October , dropping to a level with 71.2 points, compared with 80.2 in September. In addition, it was reported that an index that is designed to assess the current situation fell to 70.7 from 73.5 , while the expectations index worsened to 71.5 from 84.7 last month.
Market participants expect the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve , which begins today . "Meetings of the Federal Reserve is in the focus of the market, and it is likely that the Committee will consider the weak U.S. economic reports as a reason not to reduce the amount of stimulus measures this year ," said Lorne Baring , managing director of Capital SA.
It should be noted that the vast majority of analysts agree that the central bank will continue the program of asset purchases , which is $ 85 billion a month after the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday . In the accompanying statement , the central bank is likely to confirm the possibility of folding the program purchases until the end of the year. FOMC members do not want to write off the accounts in December . In recent days, many well-known economists have revised their expectations about the first reduction in the QE March 2014 .
The pound fell against the dollar despite a report that showed that in September it was approval of the 66,735 new home loans , up from 63,396 in August , which was the highest since February 2008 . Meanwhile, data showed that the interest rates on loans for housing construction fell in September , while total mortgage lending for the month was 15.6 billion pounds , registering the highest since October 2008 . The data obtained show an improvement in production, which stimulates the revival of the mortgage lending and housing market activity . We add that the number of mortgage approvals exceeded the forecasts of economists - they had expected growth of 66 thousand in the last month, net mortgage lending expanded to 1.03 billion pounds , consumer loans amounted to 411 million pounds , said the Bank of England.
However , the volume of consumer credit fell to £ 0.411 billion from £ 0.62 billion , and net lending - up to £ 1.4 billion These figures , and increased pressure on the pound .
European stocks rose as companies from BP Plc to UBS AG reported earnings and the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee started a two-day meeting today to consider when to begin trimming the $85 billion-a-month of bond purchases that have buoyed global markets. Policy makers will hold off paring stimulus measures until the March 18-19 meeting, a Bloomberg survey showed this month.
Retail sales in the U.S. outside of auto dealers climbed in September. The 0.4 percent gain in purchases excluding vehicles followed a 0.1 percent increase in August and matched the median forecast of economists, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.
A separate report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers declined in October by the most since August 2011. The Conference Board’s index fell to 71.2 in October from a revised 80.2 the month prior, the New York-based private research group said today. The median forecast in a survey of economists called for a reading of 75.
National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 Western-European markets. The U.K’s FTSE 100 gained 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX Index added 0.5 percent and France’s CAC 40 increased 0.6 percent.
BP added 5.6 percent to 477.5 pence, its biggest gain since January 2011. Europe’s third-largest oil company raised its dividend by 5.6 percent to 9.5 cents a share. Profit adjusted for one-time items and inventory changes dropped to $3.7 billion from $5 billion a year earlier, beating the $3.4 billion average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
A gauge of European oil and gas companies posted the best performance of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, gaining 1.9 percent to a nine-month high. Saipem SpA rallied 4.7 percent to 17.04 euros and Fugro NV added 2 percent to 46.48 euros.
Nokia Oyj jumped 7 percent to 5.35 euros. The Espoo, Finland-based company forecast rising profit ">OC Oerlikon Corp. climbed 1.6 percent to 12.65 Swiss francs. The maker of textile machinery reported third-quarter earnings before interest and taxes of 88 million francs ($98 million), beating the 86 million francs analysts had forecast.
UBS slid 7.7 percent to 17.70 francs. The bank’s target of reaching 15 percent return on equity in 2015 will be delayed by at least a year unless the regulator removes its capital demand, the Zurich-based lender said in a statement. UBS also reported third-quarter net income of 577 million francs, beating the average analyst estimate that called for 561 million francs.
West Texas
Intermediate crude fell for the first time in four days on estimates that
inventories rose last week to a four-month high in the U.S., the world’s
biggest oil-consuming country.
Futures
dropped as much as 0.9 percent. Stockpiles climbed for a sixth week in the
seven days ended Oct. 25, according to a Bloomberg survey before a report from
the Energy Information Administration tomorrow. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut
its 2013 estimate for production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries, citing supply constraints in Libya.
WTI for
December delivery slid 45 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $98.23 a barrel at 9:33
a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was
about 50 percent less than the 100-day average. Prices are 4 percent
lower so far in October, poised for a second monthly loss.
Brent for December settlement dropped 54 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $109.07 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 9.6 percent below the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $10.84 to WTI, compared with $10.93 yesterday.
Gold prices are adjusted to five-week highs in anticipation of the Fed meeting . Investors have decided to refrain from taking action before a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve , scheduled for this week.
Wednesday should be completed a two-day meeting of the central bank of the USA , and traders will carefully analyze the Fed's statement , published on its results . Many investors expect the Fed officials postponed curtailing its program to stimulate the economy until next year and will use it as a tool that can reverse the damage caused by the 16-day suspension of the U.S. federal government.
However, futures prices for gold is still trading lower by 19 % this year . This is due to the fact that investors expect the Fed soon to minimize the program to stimulate the economy .
The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1339.80 per ounce.
U.S. stock-index futures fluctuated as investors assessed data on retail sales and producer prices and Federal Reserve policy makers began a two-day meeting.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 14,325.98 -70.06 -0.49%
Hang Seng 22,846.54 +39.96 +0.18%
Shanghai Composite 2,128.86 -5.01 -0.23%
FTSE 6,765.63 +39.81 +0.59%
CAC 4,276.39 +24.78 +0.58%
DAX 9,001.26 +22.61 +0.25%
Crude oil $98.12 -0.57%
Gold $1347.50 -0.35%
Data
05:00 Japan Confidence in small business October 49.8 50.8
09:30 UK The volume of net lending to individuals billion in September 1.6 2.5 1.4
09:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans , th September 62.23 66.74
12:30 Canada prices of manufactured goods , m / m in September +0.2 % Revised to +0.3 % +0.2 % -0.3 %
12:30 Canada Commodity Index September +0.9 % -0.4 % -1.5 %
12:30 U.S. Producer Price Index m / m in September +0.3 % +0.2 % -0.1 %
12:30 U.S. Producer Price Index y / y in September +1.4 % +0.6 % +0.3 %
12:30 U.S. Producer Price Index , the base value , m / m in September 0.0% +0.1 % +0.1 %
12:30 U.S. Producer Price Index , the base value , y / y in September +1.1 % +1.2 % +1.2 %
12:30 U.S. September retail sales +0.2 % +0.3 % -0.1 %
12:30 USA Retail sales excluding autos September +0.1 % +0.4 % +0.4 %
The dollar rose against the euro , as many market participants expect the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve , which begins today . Note that the U.S. currency is hardly reacted to yield data on the U.S., which was worse .
"Meetings of the Federal Reserve is in the focus of the market, and it is likely that the Committee will consider the weak U.S. economic reports as a reason not to reduce the amount of stimulus measures this year ," said Lorne Baring , managing director of Capital SA.
It should be noted that the vast majority of analysts agree that the central bank will continue the program of asset purchases , which is $ 85 billion a month after the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday .
In the accompanying statement , the central bank is likely to confirm the possibility of folding the program purchases until the end of the year. FOMC members do not want to write off the accounts in December . In recent days, many well-known economists have revised their expectations about the first reduction in the QE March 2014 .
The pound was down against the dollar in anticipation of the U.S. statistics on which the currency is almost did not react , even despite the fact that the data were worse than expected . As reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce , in September, overall retail sales in the country fell by 0.1 % m / m vs. +0.3 %, while sales excluding avtosektora rose by 0.4 % , improving the August result.
Currency is sold , despite a report that showed that in September it was approval of the 66,735 new home loans , up from 63,396 in August , which was the highest since February 2008 . Meanwhile, data showed that the interest rates on loans for housing construction fell in September , while total mortgage lending for the month was 15.6 billion pounds , registering the highest since October 2008 . The data obtained show an improvement in production, which stimulates the revival of the mortgage lending and housing market activity . We add that the number of mortgage approvals exceeded the forecasts of economists - they had expected growth of 66 thousand in the last month, net mortgage lending expanded to 1.03 billion pounds , consumer loans amounted to 411 million pounds , said the Bank of England.
However , the volume of consumer credit fell to £ 0.411 billion from £ 0.62 billion , and net lending - up to £ 1.4 billion These figures , and increased pressure on the pound .
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3752
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6060
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y98.00
At 14:00 GMT the United States will come indicator of consumer confidence for October, as well as data on changes in stocks in commercial warehouses , and changes in the volume of industrial orders in August. At 18:00 GMT the United States will be published monthly performance report for September. At 23:50 GMT Japan will announce preliminary data on industrial production for September.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3870/80, $1.3850/55, $1.3850, $1.3830/35, $1.3815/25
Bids $1.3750, $1.3740, $1.3720, $1.3710/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6200/05, $1.6170/80, $1.6134
Bids $1.6080, $1.6063, $1.6020, $1.6000, $1.5980
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9670/80, $0.9645/50, $0.9620/25, $0.9600, $0.9545/50
Bids $0.9500, $0.9480, $0.9450, $0.9400
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8650/55, stg0.8600/05, stg0.8570/75
Bids stg0.8520, stg0.8505/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y135.50, Y135.25/30, Y135.00, Y134.80
Bids Y134.20, Y134.00, Y133.55/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y98.50, Y98.20, Y98.00, Y97.80
Bids Y97.20, Y97.00, Y96.80
European stocks rose as companies from BP (BP/) Plc to Deutsche Bank AG reported earnings and the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed and Asian shares fell.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent to 320.25 at 8:52 a.m. in London. The gauge fell 0.2 percent yesterday, snapping a three-week rally, as U.S. factory production and home sales missed forecasts. The index has still soared 15 percent in 2013, closing at a five-year high on Oct. 22, as central banks around the world pledged to leave interest rates low for a prolonged period.
“The Fed meeting is in focus and it is likely that the Committee will view weak U.S. economic reports as not supportive of tapering in 2013,” said Lorne Baring, who oversees about $500 million as managing director of B Capital SA in Geneva. “The overreaction to the mention of tapering is now over. Underlying sentiment is still positive and I think European stocks still offer more intrinsic value than U.S. equities.”
The Federal Open Market Committee starts a two-day meeting today to consider when to begin trimming the $85 billion-a-month of bond purchases that have buoyed global markets. Policy makers will hold off paring stimulus measures until the March 18-19 meeting, survey showed this month.
A Commerce Department report may show that retail sales stalled in September. Economists forecast no change in purchases, the worst reading in six months, after a 0.2 percent gain the previous month. Separate data at 10 a.m. will probably show consumer confidence declined this month.
BP gained 4.1 percent to 470.6 pence. Europe’s third-largest oil company raised its dividend by 5.6 percent to 9.5 cents a share. Profit adjusted for one-time items and inventory changes dropped to $3.7 billion from $5 billion a year earlier, beating the $3.4 billion average estimate of analysts.
OC Oerlikon Corp. (OERL) climbed 2 percent to 12.70 francs. The maker of textile machinery reported third-quarter earnings before interest and tax of 88 million francs, beating the 86 million francs analysts had forecast.
Deutsche Bank slid 2.5 percent to 35 euros after Europe’s biggest investment bank by revenue said that net income in the three months through September declined to 41 million euros ($56 million) from 747 million euros a year earlier. That missed the 430 million-euro average estimate of analysts.
FTSE 100 6,757.14 +31.32 +0.47%
CAC 40 4,265.31 +13.70 +0.32%
DAX 8,991.8 +13.15 +0.15%
EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3780, $1.3790, $1.3800, $1.3850
USD/JPY Y96.50, Y96.75, Y97.00, Y97.15, Y97.25, Y97.30, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.85, Y99.00
GBP/USD $1.5925, $1.5950, $1.6000, $1.6150, $1.6160, $1.6215, $1.6325
USD/CHF Chf0.8900, Chf0.8950
AUD/USD $0.9550, $0.9600, $0.9625
USD/CAD C$1.0425, C$1.0450
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark gauge paring its first back-to-back monthly gain since April, as investors awaited a Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Nikkei 225 14,325.98 -70.06 -0.49%
Hang Seng 22,846.54 +39.96 +0.18%
S&P/ASX 200 5,415.53 -25.88 -0.48%
Shanghai Composite 2,128.86 -5.01 -0.23%
Komatsu Ltd. tumbled 8.1 percent in Tokyo after the world’s second-largest maker of construction equipment cut its full-year profit forecast by 26 percent.
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. slumped 3.3 percent in Hong Kong, leading Macau casino operators lower after Credit Suisse Group AG said gaming stocks are at risk of a correction following this year’s rally.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. climbed 1.2 percent to a record in Sydney after posting its highest profit and raising its dividend more than forecast.
The yen rose against all of its 16 major peers after data in Japan showed retail sales grew more than economists estimated and the unemployment rate dropped before the nation’s central bank holds a meeting this week. Retail sales rose 1.8 percent last month from August, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. That exceeded the 0.5 percent increase predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate slid to 4 percent in September from 4.1 percent the previous month, according to a separate report.
Japan’s currency halted a two-day slide versus the dollar as falling Asian stocks boosted demand for haven assets and futures traders trimmed bearish bets on the currency to the least in a year.
The euro rose to a two-month high versus the pound before a report due today that may show stronger consumer sentiment in France, Europe’s second-largest economy. Consumer confidence in France probably increased to 86 this month, matching the level reached in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before today’s data.
The Aussie dollar fell after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the currency will probably be “materially lower.” The RBA’s Stevens said the Australian currency’s level isn’t supported by costs and productivity in the economy. It’s quite likely that, at some point, the Australian dollar will be “materially lower” than currently, he said in a speech in Sydney.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3770-90
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to $ 1.6065
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.45
In Europe, the data calendar is relatively lighter today, starting out with Spain's Sep retail sales index at 0700 GMT. Then, at 0930, the Bank of England's September money and credit data are due. These figures will probably show further signs that the housing market was heating up, ahead of the October launch the Help to Buy scheme, but overall credit growth will probably have remained subdued. Mortgage approvals are expected to have risen to 66,000 in September, still a long way short of the 100,000 plus levels seen before the onset of the financial crisis. Data releases today start with ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 7:45
a.m. ET (1145 GMT, followed by September retail sales and September producer price index, both to be released at 1230 GMT. Other postponed data to be released include the August business inventories report at 1400 GMT. At 1255 GMT, 26-Oct Redbook Average is then due followed by the 1300 GMT release of the August US S&P/Case-Shiller housing index. Housing prices have lately begun to pick up due to increased demand and short supply, though this could begin to hurt sales in the coming months without any speedier improvement in the economy.
At 1400 GMT, there's US 3Q Housing Vacancies and Oct Oct Consumer Confidence. Also today, the Federal Open Market Committee starts its 2-day meeting and will be releasing its latest policy statement Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, although nobody is expecting any fireworks after the lackluster September jobs report. With a coming change in leadership, and a potentially sizable impact to growth still to be reported due to the shutdown, it is looking less likely the Fed will make any changes to policy in the near-term.
GOLD 1,352.00 -0.40 -0.03%
OIL (WTI) 98.61 0.76 0.78%
Nikkei 225 14,396.04 307,85 2,19%
Hang Seng 22,806.58 108,24 0,48%
S & P / ASX 200 5,441.41 55,06 1,02%
Shanghai Composite 2,133.87 0,91 0,04%
FTSE 100 6,725.82 +4.48 +0.07%
CAC 40 4,251.61 -20.70 -0.48%
DAX 8,978.65 -7.09 -0.08%
Dow 15,568.93 -1.35 -0.01%
Nasdaq 3,940.13 -3.23 -0.08%
S&P 500 1,762.11 +2.34 +0.13%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3786 -0,09%
GBP/USD $1,6139 -0,38%
USD/CHF Chf0,8955 +0,36%
USD/JPY Y97,69 +0,38%
EUR/JPY Y134,67 +0,28%
GBP/JPY Y157,64 -0,01%
AUD/USD $0,9571 -0,45%
NZD/USD $0,8298 -0,52%
USD/CAD C$1,0444 +0,23%
05:00 Japan Small Business Confidence October 49.8
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey November 7.1 7.3
09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln September 1.6 2.5
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals September 62.23
12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m September +0.2% +0.2%
12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index September +0.9% -0.4%
12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m September +0.3% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y September +1.4% +0.6%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m September 0.0% +0.1%
12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y September +1.1% +1.2%
12:30 U.S. Retail sales September +0.2% +0.3%
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto September +0.1% +0.4%
13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y August +12.39% +12.4%
14:00 U.S. Business inventories August +0.4% +0.3%
14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence October 79.7 76.0
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) September -0.9% +1.8%
23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) September -0.4% +5.6%