Notícias do Mercado

10 outubro 2013
  • 16:39

    Oil: an overview of the market situation

    The cost of oil futures increased significantly , rising at the same time above $ 111 per barrel, which is primarily due to the reports of the kidnapping and release of the Prime Minister of Libya.

    Note that the grouping of former Libyan rebels freed Prime Minister Ali Zeidan , who earlier today was kidnapped from hotel in Tripoli in retaliation for the U.S. intelligence assistance in tracking down one of the leaders of the extremist network " Al- Qaeda .

    Meanwhile , we add that the impact on the course of trade has also had a report from OPEC. In its monthly report, OPEC reduced the forecast of demand for crude oil produced by its members , to 230,000 barrels a day compared with the September report to 30.49 million barrels per day. Forecast for 2014 was lowered by 50,000 bpd to 29.56 million.

    According to sources , in September, average daily production of OPEC was 30.05 million barrels , slightly above the limit set by the cartel of 30 million, despite the decline in production in Iraq and Libya. According to the calculations of OPEC, the average daily global oil consumption next year will increase by 1.04 million barrels.

    In addition, many market participants continue to evaluate yesterday's report from the Energy Information Administration , which showed that U.S. crude inventories last week rose 6.8 million barrels , the forecast increase of 1.5 million. Over the last three weeks inventories rose by 14.9 million barrels , the biggest three-week gain since April 2012 .

    Also today it was announced that the Shell shut down its oil pipeline in Nigeria because of reports of leaks . The pipeline capacity 150,000 barrels per day resumed work only 10 days ago.

    Add that oil prices were also supported by reports that there were signs of progress in resolving the issue of the budget and avoid a possible default .

    The cost of the November futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 103.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    November futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 2.53 to $ 111.55 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

  • 16:20

    Gold: an overview of the market situation

    Gold prices fell slightly , dropping at the same time to $ 1,300 an ounce on Thursday, as there were early successes in resolving the issue of the budget and the national debt ceiling . It should be noted that representatives of both Republicans and Democrats on the eve of reported willingness to consider the possibility of temporarily increasing the upper limit of the debt. Republicans say about 4-6 weeks , which can raise the level of gosdogla , thereby avoiding a default and deciding it's time for questions from the budget. The idea of ​​a temporary increase in the debt ceiling also supported the administration of President Obama , while noting that they prefer long-term solutions. However , this is only temporary and superficial solution that does not solve the problem, but only allows you to buy some time , but at the moment it is enough to have a positive impact on the markets , as the probability of default on this background is significantly reduced.

    In addition, we add that the course of trade continued to influence the protocol presented last September meeting of the FOMC, which revealed the decision to delay folding of the QE program was close to realization. Camp doves on the Committee defeated the hawks , saying the economic recovery is too fragile to start folding. The newly nominated successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the assumption that the new head will be the same as the old one, is firmly entrenched in the squad pigeons and maintaining ultra accommodative policy. If under normal circumstances, the protocol would have worn more critical, pointing to the possibility of folding in October , the " shatdaun " and uncertainty over the debt ceiling have dropped steadily reduce the probability of launching incentive for 2014 .

    Note that the price of gold has fallen by about 22 percent this year on expectations that the Fed will cut its monthly bond purchases.

    Meanwhile , we add that the physical buying of the metal were also unable to grow in spite of the decline in prices. " The concern is the lack of physical demand from China in the past two sessions: the physical premiums in Hong Kong actually fell , and orders are not so much" , said in a note ISS SA.

    It is worth mentioning that today the Morgan Stanley analysts lowered the outlook for the gold price . In 2014, gold will continue to decline amid expectations that the Fed will cut incentives, as the U.S. economy recovers , according to Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG also expect that the market will be dominated by bears.

    "We recommend to stay away from gold at this stage of the cycle ," - said analyst Joel Crane . The price of the precious metal will average U.S. $ 1,313 per ounce in 2014 , compared to 1420 dollars this year , according to a quarterly report by Morgan Stanley metals.

    "Gold will continue to fall in the next year , because the U.S. economic recovery will continue after lawmakers leave the situation ", - said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman goods. Precious metals will be the average decline each year until 2018 , predicts Morgan Stanley.

    The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1301.00 per ounce.

  • 06:21

    Commodities. Daily history for Oct 9’2013:

    GOLD 1,306.90  -17.30 -1.31%

    OIL (WTI) 101.52  -1.97 -1.90%


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