U.S. stock-index futures rose on Tuesday amid continued strength in the mega-cap stocks, including Apple (AAPL; +2.2%), and optimism over upbeat manufacturing sector surveys out of China and Europe.

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Apple (AAPL) target raised to $150 from $115 at JP Morgan 

FXStreet notes that August has seen the S&P 500 stage an impressive 7% gain. Economists at Credit Suisse see scope for a push into a cluster of resistances at 3525/50, but look for this to then ideally cap for a phase of consolidation.

“Support at 3484 holding can keep the immediate risk higher with resistance above 3515 seen next at Fibonacci projection resistance at 3525/29.”

“An overshoot to 3548/50 should be allowed for – 15% above the 200-day average – but we look for this 3525/50 zone to ideally cap at first for a consolidation phase. A direct break though can see resistance next at 3600/09.” 

“Below 3484 can ease the immediate upside bias with support seen next at 3468/66. Beneath here remains needed to mark a minor top for a test of the uptrend from late June and the 13-day exponential average at 3433.” 

“The VIX has interestingly spiked higher although still needs to clear 28.58 to mark a near-term base and more important turn higher.”

FXStreet notes that the S&P 500 has surged a remarkable 55% from the 23 March low – the fastest retracement in history. At this point, Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley expects to see some consolidation based on three examples of current market disconnects that seem particularly ominous for market health.

“Historically, year-over-year gains in the S&P 500 and changes in the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index match up. In fact, in the past 20 yers, the dispersion between the S&P and consumer confidence has never been this wide. The just-released headline confidence number fell to a six-year low, worse than the reading in April during the nadir of the economic shutdown. And the S&P reached a new all-time high of 3508 on August 28th. It’s now about 5% higher than the pre-COVID high in February and up 23% from this time a year ago.”

“An index of US economic surprises has reached a record, with the rebound in manufacturing and strong housing sales and durable goods orders all supporting our thesis for V-shaped economic recovery. But rather than seeing the rising tide lift all boats, correlations between sectors in the S&P 500 index are at an all-time low. Cyclicals and traditional value sectors are lagging market leadership, which is dominated by a small group of large-cap growth winners, mostly in tech. Financials, which typically perform well during economic rebounds, are languishing.”

“When Treasury yields fall, stocks in sectors that tend to be less volatile and offer high dividends usually outperform as investors seek ‘bond proxies.’ But lately, bond proxies, such as real estate investment trusts, utilities and consumer staples, have been left behind. Of course, commercial real estate has been hard-hit by the COVID-19 recession, but this dynamic still seems incongruous to me, especially given the outlook for continued low rates and weakness in financial stocks.”

“We encourage investors to look for opportunities where cognitive dissonance is loudest. We suggest waiting for a correction in the S&P 500, then moving into sectors that are lagging now, such as financials, industrials, materials and health care, which are likely to outperform once investors more enthusiastically embrace the V-shaped recovery that’s starting to emerge.”