(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,0980 +0,87%
GBP/USD $1,2919 +0,41%
USD/CHF Chf0,9861 -0,83%
USD/JPY Y112,53 -0,12%
EUR/JPY Y123,56 +0,75%
GBP/JPY Y145,36 +0,28%
AUD/USD $0,7411 -0,15%
NZD/USD $0,6870 -0,20%
USD/CAD C$1,3748 +0,14%
01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves March 683.18
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate April 6.7% 6.7%
12:30 Canada Employment April 19.4 10
12:30 U.S. Government Payrolls April 9
12:30 U.S. Average workweek April 34.3 34.4
12:30 U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls April 11 10
12:30 U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls April 89 185
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings April 0.2% 0.3%
12:30 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate April 63%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls April 98 185
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate April 4.5% 4.6%
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April 61.1 62.3
15:30 U.S. FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Speaks
16:45 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks
17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count May
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
17:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks
19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit March 15.21 15.75
"While we expect productivity growth to rebound somewhat this year and next, there will be a notable impact on growth if it fails to improve"
Productivity growth slowdown remains a sizeable risk to global growth
Greece agreement a positive step toward review completion
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $238.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 2.3 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, drove the increase, $2.0 billion or 2.4 percent to $83.3 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up four of the last five months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $239.8 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $81.7 billion.
EURUSD: 1.0750-60 (520m) 1.0800 (421m) 1.0830 (497m) 1.0850-60 (1.1bln) 1.0890 ( 722m) 1.0900 (464m) 1.0950 (1.6bln ) 1.1100 (777m)
USDJPY: 111.20-30 (USD 185m) 112.00 (335m) 112.50 (457m)
GBPUSD: 1.3000-05 (GBP 361m)
USDCHF: 1.0000 (USD 185m)
AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 182m) 0.7420-25 (192m) 0.7560 (341m)
USDCAD: 1.3680 (USD 300m)
NZDUSD: 0.6970 (NZD 198m)
In the week ending April 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 242,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending April 22, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.7 billion in March, down $0.1 billion from $43.8 billion in February, revised. March exports were $191.0 billion, $1.7
billion less than February exports. March imports were $234.7 billion, $1.7 billion less than February imports.
The March decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.4 billion to $65.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $21.8 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $9.4 billion, or 7.5 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $38.0 billion or 7.1 percent. Imports increased $47.5 billion or 7.1 percent.
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.6-percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today, as output increased 1.0 percent and hours worked increased 1.6 percent.
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees,
proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 3.0 percent in the first quarter of 2017, reflecting a 2.4-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.6-percent decline in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 2.8 percent over the last four quarters.
EUR/USD
Offers: 1.0920 1.0935 1.0950-55 1.0980 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050
Bids: 1.0870 1.0850 1.0820 1 .0800 1.0780 1.0750 1.0700
GBP/USD
Offers: 1.2880-85 1.2900 1.2930 1.2950-60 1.2975 1.3000
Bids: 1.2830 1.2800 1.2775-80 1.2760 1.2750 1.2720 1.2700
EUR/JPY
Offers: 123.30 123.50 123.75 124.00 124.50 125.00
Bids: 122.80 122.50 122.35 122.20 122.00 121.85 121.65 121.50
EUR/GBP
Offers: 0.8460 0.8480-85 0.8500 0.8530 0.8550
Bids: 0.8435-40 0.8400 0.8385 0.8350
USD/JPY
Offers: 113.00 113.20 113.50 113.80 114.00
Bids: 112.65 112.50 112.30 112.00 111.80 111.50
AUD/USD
Offers: 0.7420-25 0.7550-55 0.7480 0.7500
Bids: 0.7385 0.7365 0.7350 0.7335 0.7300 0.7280 0.7250
In March 2017 compared with February 2017, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19), while it fell by 0.2% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In February the retail trade volume increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU28. In March 2017 compared with March 2016 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU28.
The 0.3% increase in the volume of retail trade in the euro area in March 2017, compared with February 2017, is due to rises of 0.4% for non-food products and of 0.2% for "Food, drinks and tobacco", while automotive fuel fell by 0.3%. In the EU28, the 0.2% decrease in the volume of retail trade is due to falls of 0.4% for automotive fuel and of 0.3% for non-food products, while "Food, drinks and tobacco" rose by 0.1%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Hungary (+1.8%), Estonia (+1.6%) and Luxembourg (+1.5%), while the largest decreases were observed in Portugal (-2.3%), Slovenia and the United Kingdom (both -2.2%) as well as Finland (-2.1%).
UK service providers experienced a sustained rebound in business activity during April, supported by the fastest upturn in new work so far in 2017. Job creation also picked up to a four-month high, driven by renewed pressures on operating capacity. A strong pace of input cost inflation persisted in April, which contributed to the steepest rise in prices charged by service sector firms since July 2008. Meanwhile, service providers are confident about their prospects for growth over the year ahead, but the degree of optimism moderated for the third month running to its weakest since November 2016.
At 55.8 in April, up from 55.0 in March, the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Services PMI Business Activity Index posted above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the ninth month in a row. The latest reading revealed the fastest upturn in service sector output since December 2016. The robust and accelerated rise in services activity was linked to resilient business-to-business demand, new product launches and, in some cases, another rise in sales to overseas clients.
Euro area economic growth accelerated to a sixyear high at the start of the second quarter. This was signalled by the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rising to 56.8 in April, up from 56.4 in March and the earlier flash estimate of 56.7. Activity has expanded for 46 months in a row. Output growth accelerated at manufacturers and service providers, with rates of increase hitting 72- month records in both cases.
The slightly sharper expansion was again registered in manufacturing. Underpinning growth of economic activity was a strong increase in incoming new business. New orders rose for the twenty-ninth month running, with the rate of expansion staying close to March's high.
The German service sector continued to expand strongly at the start of the second quarter, according to the April PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The rate of growth in total activity was littlechanged from March's recent peak, although new business expansion eased to a three-month low and the volume of outstanding work fell slightly. Consequently, companies increased their workforces at the slowest rate since January. Price pressures remained historically sharp, although the rates of inflation of input and output prices both slowed since March.
The seasonally adjusted Markit Germany Composite PMI Output Index remained well above the no-change mark of 50.0 in April, signalling a strong expansion in the combined output of the manufacturing and service sectors. At 56.7, down slightly from 57.1 in March, the Index pointed to the second-fastest rate of growth since May 2011.
EURUSD: 1.0750-60 (520m) 1.0800 (421m) 1.0830 (497m) 1.0850-60 (1.1bln) 1.0890 ( 722m) 1.0900 (464m) 1.0950 (1.6bln ) 1.1100 (777m)
USDJPY: 111.20-30 (USD 185m) 112.00 (335m) 112.50 (457m)
GBPUSD: 1.3000-05 (GBP 361m)
USDCHF: 1.0000 (USD 185m)
AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 182m) 0.7420-25 (192m) 0.7560 (341m)
USDCAD: 1.3680 (USD 300m)
NZDUSD: 0.6970 (NZD 198m)
Higher workloads encouraged firms to expand their operating capacity, and to this end employment increased to the greatest extent in nine months. Companies generally expect these trends to be sustained, supporting further optimism around the 12-month outlook. Meanwhile, cost pressures continued to build and output prices were again raised at one of the fastest rates in the past decade.
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index ticked up to 57.8 in April, thereby signalling a sharp monthly rise in activity, and one that was slightly faster than seen in March (57.4). Activity has expanded continuously since November 2013, with the latest increase supported by improving economic conditions.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1024 (3471)
$1.0988 (3998)
$1.0965 (4166)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0886
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0852 (1429)
$1.0804 (1593)
$1.0774 (1529)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 76554 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (8365);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 81380 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (6234);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 3
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3105 (2145)
$1.3009 (2930)
$1.2913 (1426)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2845
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2791 (1390)
$1.2694 (869)
$1.2596 (1501)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 26693 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2930);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 30013 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (5027);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 3
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Fed repeats near-term risks to the economy appear "roughly balanced"
Repeats it will reinvest principal payments from its holdings until rate normalization is well under way
Vote in favor of policy was unanimous
Business fixed investment has firmed, job gains have been solid and fundamentals for consumption growth also solid
Inflation measured on 12-month basis has been running close to target
Want to see continuation of positive employment trends
Higher housing supply, transport infrastructure to help balance supply-demand
Employment growth has been a bit stronger of late, forward looking indicators positive
We should not expect interest rates always to be this low
Over time we could expect interest rates to rise in Australia
Recent increase in household debt to income has made economy less resilient to future shocks
Concerned about impact of sharp house price correction on household spending, economy
Higher the indebtedness the greater is the sensitivity of spending to shocks to income
The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further slowdown in growth momentum at the start of the second quarter. This was highlighted by the Composite Output Index posting 51.2 in April, down from 52.1 in March, and the lowest reading for ten months. Latest data saw a loss of momentum across both the manufacturing and service sectors during April.
While manufacturers recorded the weakest rise in production since last September, service providers saw the slowest increase in business activity for 11 months. Weak services growth was illustrated by the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index registering at 51.5, down from 52.2 at the end of the first quarter, to signal only a modest rise in activity levels.
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,804m in March 2017, an increase of $265m (7%) on the surplus in February 2017.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,107m in March 2017, a decrease of $550m (15%) on the surplus in February 2017.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $776m (2%) to $33,343m. Non-monetary gold rose $443m (32%), rural goods rose $271m (7%) and non-rural goods rose $19m. Net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (2%). Services credits rose $45m (1%).
With an index value of -8 points, Swiss consumer sentiment in April 2017 is virtually at its long-term average, having been slightly more optimistic in January (-3 points). While expectations for overall economic developments are above average in April, they are less positive than they were in January. Expectations concerning the financial situation and savings possibilities of domestic households are also marginally bleaker. Compared with the last 18 months, however, consumer sentiment remains robust.
The consumer sentiment index from April 2017 stands at -8 points and therefore more or less at its long-term average (-9 points). This corresponds to a marginal downturn on January 2017 (-3 points), albeit at a relatively high level, with the consumer sentiment index having recorded significantly lower values throughout the six preceding quarters.