(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0763 +0,95%

GBP/USD $1,2730 +0,05%

USD/CHF Chf1,0064 -0,42%

USD/JPY Y113,84 +0,25%

EUR/JPY Y122,52 +1,18%

GBP/JPY Y144,9 +0,28%

AUD/USD $0,7470 +0,29%

NZD/USD $0,7139 +0,07%

USD/CAD $1,3271 -0,07%

00:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY October 0.2% 0.2%

00:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter III -15.5 -13.7

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 1.5% 1.5%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October -0.6% 0.6%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.1%

08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November -0.2% -0.1%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter III 0.3% 0.3%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter III 1.6% 1.6%

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions October -4.08 -2.0

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.6% 3.3%

13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter III 4.3% 0.3%

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 59.7 59.9

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October 0.3% 2.5%

22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 45.9

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans described in a speech Monday a strong U.S. economy that he has "every reason to believe" will continue, especially with the economic policies the new administration has proposed.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 57.2 percent in November, 2.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. This is the 12-month high, and the highest reading since the 58.3 registered in October of 2015".

The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the reading of 57.7 percent in October. The Employment Index increased 5.1 percentage points in November to 58.2 percent from the October reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the October reading of 56.6 percent to 56.3 percent, indicating prices increased in November for the eighth consecutive month at a slightly slower rate

U.S. service providers experienced a robust expansion of business activity in November, helped by the fastest rise in new work for one year. Greater workloads and resilient business confidence led to a further upturn in the pace of job creation from the three-and-a-half year low recorded in September. Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased slightly during November, which contributed to the slowest rise in average prices charged by service sector companies since April.

The seasonally adjusted final Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index registered 54.6 in November, to remain above the 50.0 no-change value for the ninth consecutive month. Although the latest reading was fractionally lower than in October (54.8), the rate of growth remained stronger than at any time in the first half of 2016. Survey respondents noted that improved client confidence and a favourable domestic economic backdrop had helped to boost business activity in November.

"It will be more active in terms of data with October trade and production data as well as Services PMI scheduled to be released. However, none of these releases should have any bigger an impact on the BoE's monetary policy stance, which is stable in an environment in which intact Brexit uncertainty is coupled to increased upside risks to inflation.

As such it will be political developments that drive the currency still. Mainly on the back of Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem stressing that the EU may find a way for the UK to access the internal market, hard-Brexit fears fell anew to the benefit of the currency.

With short positioning still elevated some additional position squaring related GBP upside risks cannot be excluded towards the end of the year, especially against the USD.

When it comes to EUR/GBP we believe that the longer-term outlook is more constructive. Hence, we stay long the cross via options".

Copyright © 2016 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™

EUR/USD 1.0445-50 (EUR 520m) 1.0500 (1.82bln) 1.0510 (487m) 1.0700 (1.62bln) 1.0750 (1.68bln)

USD/JPY 110.50 (USD 1.77bln) 110.75 (600m) 112.45 (405m) 113.50 (380m)

GBP/USD 1.2240-45 (GBP 612m) 1.2350 (455m) 1.2490-1.2500 (630m) 1.2800 (520m)

USD/CHF 1.0200 (USD 300m) 1.0400 (630m)

AUD/USD 0.7400 (AUD 453m)

USD/CAD 1.3300 (USD 591m) 1.3400 (346m)

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.0665 1.0685 1.0700 1.0730 1.0745-50 1.0780 1.0800 1.0820 1.0850

Bids: 1.0620 1.0600 1.0580 1.0550 1.0520 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.2750 1.2770 1.2785 1.2800 1.2830 1.2850 1.2875 1.2900

Bids: 1.2700 1.2680 1.2660 1.2630 1.2600 1.2585 1.2560 1.2520-25 1.2500

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.8375-80 0.8400 0.8420 0.8450 0.8465 0.8480-85 0.8500

Bids: 0.8350 0.8335 0.8320 0.8300 0.8280-85 0.8250 0.8200

EUR/JPY

Offers : 121.85 122.00 122.30 122.65-70 123.00 123.50 124.00

Bids: 121.00 120.80-85 120.50 102.20 120.00 119.60 119.30 119.00 118.50 118.00

USD/JPY

Offers : 114.20 114.35 114.50 114.80-85 115.00 115.25 115.45-50

Bids: 113.80 113.40-45 113.20 113.00 112.85 112.50 112.20 112.00 111.80 111.50

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7465 0.7485 0.7500-05 0.7520 0.7545-50 0.7580 0.7600

Bids: 0.7420 0.7400 0.7380 0.7355-60 0.7325-30 0.7300 0.7285 0.7250

During his speech today in Tokyo, the European Central Bank official, and head of the Bank of France, François Villeroy said that the consequences of the Italian referendum can not be compared to the exit of Great Britain from the EU. The official believes that the results of the referendum will be another source of uncertainty, but certainly not a disaster. "We will closely monitor the effects of the referendum in Italy. However, the economic reforms in Europe have developed resistance. Economic growth in the euro area is now stable and reliable. They are supported by domestic demand and loose monetary policy "- said Villeroy.

In October 2016 compared with September 2016, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 1.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.2% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September the retail trade volume decreased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU28. In October 2016 compared with October 2015 the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.4% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU28.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+3.7%), Luxembourg (+2.9%), Germany (+2.4%) and the United Kingdom (+2.0%), while decreases were observed in Malta (-0.5%), Ireland (-0.4%), Hungary (-0.3%), Slovakia (-0.2%) and Spain (-0.1%).

The sentix Economic Indices show as one of the first published leading indicators after the US election a remarkable shift in economic expectations. Investors entirely revise their expectations for the US economy and turn euphoric. Expectations jump by 20.5 points. Another beneficiary of the surprising US election result is Japan. The surge in the US Dollar causes the Japanese Yen to decline which should boost the export-driven economy. While the US, Japan and the sentix Global Aggregate Index benefit, only Europe trails behind. The headline index for the Eurozone slides 3.1 points. The Global Aggregate Index shows a plus of 3.1 points.

November PMI survey data from IHS Markit and CIPS signalled that the UK service sector remained on a firm growth path towards the end of 2016. The rate of expansion of total activity accelerated further to the strongest since January. Employment growth picked up to the fastest since April, partly fuelled by the sharpest build-up of outstanding work since July 2015. The strength of long-term business sentiment weakened for the first time since July, however, attributed to ongoing political uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

The Index remained above 50.0 for the fourth consecutive month in November, indicating a continued recovery in growth following a contraction in July linked to the EU referendum. Moreover, the Index rose to 55.2, from 54.5, signalling the fastest expansion since January. The rate of growth was broadly in line with the 20- year long-run survey average.

EUR/USD 1.0445-50 (EUR 520m) 1.0500 (1.82bln) 1.0510 (487m) 1.0700 (1.62bln) 1.0750 (1.68bln)

USD/JPY 110.50 (USD 1.77bln) 110.75 (600m) 112.45 (405m) 113.50 (380m)

GBP/USD 1.2240-45 (GBP 612m) 1.2350 (455m) 1.2490-1.2500 (630m) 1.2800 (520m)

USD/CHF 1.0200 (USD 300m) 1.0400 (630m)

AUD/USD 0.7400 (AUD 453m)

USD/CAD 1.3300 (USD 591m) 1.3400 (346m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

The rate of eurozone economic expansion accelerated to its highest in the year to date during November. This was highlighted by the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posting 53.9, slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 54.1 but still the best reading since December 2015.

Growth of manufacturing production slowed slightly since October, but nonetheless expanded at a slightly faster pace than service sector business activity. Services output rose at the quickest rate in 11 months.

The strongest rates of increase were registered by Ireland and Spain, both of which saw growth accelerate (to three- and five-month highs respectively). However, simply by the virtue of its size, Germany contributed the greatest to the latest expansion, with the rate of increase little-changed from October, says Markit.

German service providers enjoyed a further month of solid output growth, with the latest expansion the most marked in six months. Increased activity was driven by new business wins which continued to expand strongly. With business outstanding rising for the first time since June, companies were encouraged to raise their workforce numbers further during the month. Moreover, sharply rising input costs led to the strongest rate of charge inflation in four-and-a-half years as service providers passed higher input prices on to their clients.

The final seasonally adjusted Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity rose from October's 54.2 to a six-month high of 55.1 in November and thereby signalled stronger growth of business activity. The index has now posted above the crucial 50.0 no-change mark for three-and-ahalf years and latest survey results signalled that companies in the Transport & Storage sub-sector enjoyed particularly solid growth. Panel members largely attributed increased output to new business wins.

There were further signs of improvement in the Spanish service sector during November, with rates of growth in activity and new business edging higher during the month and optimism improving. A faster rise in employment was also recorded. Meanwhile, companies increased their output prices only marginally, in spite of a further solid increase in input costs.

The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 55.1 in November, up slightly from 54.6 in October and thereby signalling an acceleration in the rate of expansion during the month. The latest increase was the thirty-seventh in as many months and the sharpest since August.

• At 07:30 GMT the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will deliver a speech

• At 15:00 GMT the Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability John Cunliffe deliver a speech

• At 16:30 GMT FOMC member William Dudley will make a speech

• At 17:25 GMT FOMC member Charles Evans will give a speech

• At 20:00 GMT the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech

• At 22:05 GMT FOMC member James Bullard will give a speech

Morgan Stanley booked a massive 1570 pips profit on its GBP/JPY long position as the trade hit its target on Thursday.

Here is MS' view on the pair now:

"We hit our target on this trade as GBP/USD made new multimonth highs. We think there is still a bit more upside for GBP in the coming week but don't see a need to re-enter GBPJPY for now. We still think the JPY will weaken and are expressing the view via CHFJPY. One of our top trades for 2017 is to be short EURGBP, but we are awaiting a better entry point".

Copyright © 2016 Morgan Stanley, eFXnews

The index of business activity in Australia's services sector, published by the Australian Industry Group (AiG), was 51.1 points, which is higher than the previous value of 50.5. AiG explores the results of a survey of 200 manufacturers in the assessment of business conditions including employment, production, orders, prices and stocks, as well as short-term planning. A reading above 50 is positive for the Australian currency.

Three of the five sub-indices of activity were above 50 indicating expansion in November. New orders rose 1.7 points to 54.0, employment expanded at a slower pace, falling 0.6 points to 52.3, deliveries climbed into positive territory, up 3.6 points to 51.8.

Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) showed a further solid increase in Chinese business activity in November. The Composite Output Index was unchanged from October's 43-month record of 52.9 in November.

Services companies based in China saw a solid increase in business activity during November, which offset a slight slowdown in the rate of output expansion across the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index rose from 52.4 to reach a 16-month high of 53.1 in November.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0791 (3058)

$1.0743 (2014)

$1.0688 (127)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0568

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0522 (6610)

$1.0455 (6047)

$1.0417 (5911)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 9 is 86889 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (6413);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 9 is 75670 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0600 (6610);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.87 versus 0.83 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 2

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3001 (2463)

$1.2902 (577)

$1.2804 (1501)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2686

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2597 (1243)

$1.2498 (2623)

$1.2399 (1568)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 9 is 36131 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (2561);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 9 is 35239 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2623);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 0.98 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.