(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,0565 -0,14%
GBP/USD $1,2199 -0,20%
USD/CHF Chf1,0131 +0,11%
USD/JPY Y113,97 +0,08%
EUR/JPY Y120,41 -0,07%
GBP/JPY Y139,02 -0,22%
AUD/USD $0,7587 +0,12%
NZD/USD $0,6952 -0,58%
USD/CAD C$1,3411 +0,01%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln February 51.35 25.75
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) January 114.8
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) January 104.8 105.4
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook February 49.4
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current February 49.8 49.9
07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) January -3.0% 2.5%
07:45 France Trade Balance, bln January -3.4 -3.7
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) February 0% 0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) February 0.3%
12:30 United Kingdom Annual Budget Release
13:15 Canada Housing Starts February 207.4 200
13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report February 246 190
13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter IV 1.2%
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) January -6.6% 5%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV 0.2% 1.6%
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV 3.1% 1.5%
15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories January 1% -0.1%
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories March 1.501 1.660
Concerns worldwide investment in energy falling behind supply development needs
No "free rides" for non-OPEC producers taking advantage of OPEC cuts
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined 1.1 points, or 2.0%, in March, posting a reading of 55.3 vs. 56.4 in February 2017. The index is 4.6 points above its 12-month average of 50.7, 10.9 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered the last recession, and 6.1 points above its all-time average of 49.2.
EURUSD:1.0450 (EUR 1.2bln) 1.0500 (860m) 1.0550 (429m) 1.0575 (942m) 1.0600 (2.2bln) 1.0625 (316m) 1.0700 (1.1bln)
USDJPY: 112.25 (USD 939m) 112.50 (495m) 113.00 (1.1bln) 113.30 (220m) 113.50 (316m) 113.75 (250m)
GBPUSD: 1.2100 (299m) 1.2300 (205m)
EURGBP: 0.8700 (430m)
AUDUSD: 0.7435 (AUD 308m) 0.7600-10 (474m) 0.7625 (222m) 0.7650 (254m) 0.7665 (265m) 0.7730 (270m)
USDCAD: 1.3200 (USD 369m) 1.3220 (270m)
Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world posted a third consecutive monthly surplus, widening from $447 million in December to $807 million in January. Exports were up 0.5% on the strength of higher exports of motor vehicles and canola. Imports edged down 0.3% in January, mainly due to lower imports of unwrought gold.
Total exports increased 0.5% to a record $46.5 billion in January, despite declines in 6 of 11 sections. Volumes rose 1.0% while prices were down 0.5%. Higher exports of motor vehicles and parts, as well as farm, fishing and intermediate food products were the largest contributors to the increase.
These increases were partially offset by declines in exports of consumer goods, as well as metal and non-metallic mineral products. In January, exports excluding energy products rose 0.9%. Year over year, total exports increased 1.8%.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.5 billion in January, up $4.2 billion from $44.3 billion in December, revised. January exports were $192.1 billion, $1.1 billion more than December exports. January imports were $240.6 billion, $5.3 billion more than December imports.
The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.0 billion to $69.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $21.2 billion.
Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $5.1 billion, or 11.8 percent, from January 2016. Exports increased $13.3 billion or 7.4 percent. Imports increased $18.4 billion or 8.3 percent.
Macron seen beating Le Pen in run-off vote by 60 pct
EUR/USD
Offers: 1.0620 1.0635 1.0650 1.0680 1.0720 1.0750 1.0780 1.0800
Bids: 1.0580 1.0550 1.0520 1.05001.0480-85 1.0450
GBP/USD
Offers: 1.2250-55 1.2285 1.2300 1.2320-25 1.2360 1.2400 1.2430 1.2450-55
Bids: 1.2200 1.2180 1.2150 1.2130 1.2100 1.2075 1.2050
EUR/JPY
Offers: 120.80 121.00 121.50 121.80 122.00
Bids: 120.50 120.30 120.00119.80119.50 119.00
EUR/GBP
Offers: 0.8680-85 0.8700 0.8725-30 0.8750
Bids: 0.8650 0.8625-30 0.8600 0.8580 0.8565 0.8550
USD/JPY
Offers: 114.00 114.20 114.50-55 114.80 115.00 115.20 115.55-60
Bids: 113.65 113.50 113.00 112.80 112.50 112.20 112.00
AUD/USD
Offers: 0.7635 0.7650 0.7685 0.7700
Bids: 0.7600 0.7580 0.7550 0.7520 0.7500
Takes full responsibility for oversight, says does not anticipate actual or potential conflict of interest will arise in future
Had not formally declared brother's role at Barclays to BoE before appearing at treasury committee
Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.5% in the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2016, compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
In the third quarter of 2016, GDP grew by 0.4% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2016, after +1.8% and +1.9% respectively in the previous quarter.
During the fourth quarter of 2016, GDP in the United States increased by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.9% in the third quarter of 2016). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 1.9% (after +1.7% in the previous quarter).
"The uptrend in the USD/JPY is unlikely to be smooth and should endure occasional corrections. As seen in GPIF's December settlement, Japanese investors would support the USD/JPY at around ¥110 by dip-buying but are unlikely to be a driving force above ¥115. In the near term, if the rate fails to go beyond ¥115 if/when the Fed raises rates this month, the currency can be corrected down in disappointment. However, we stand by our view that the USD/ JPY will rise in line with US interest rates as long as the outlook for these risk scenarios remains relatively low.
....Our US economists expect the Fed to raise rates in March, June and September this year and another four times (once per quarter) in 2018. In our thoughts, the primary determinant of the course of the USD/JPY is the US economy and interest rates.
We expect the USD/JPY to move in line with our interest rate forecasts: it should try ¥115 with the March rate increase, solidify at ¥115-118 with the June hike, and burst through ¥120 with the September increase with discounting some additional hikes into 2018".
Copyright © 2017 DB, eFXnews™
House prices in the three months to February were 5.1% higher than in the same period a year ago; down from 5.7% in January.
Prices in the three months to February were 1.7% higher than in the preceding quarter.
Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: "House prices in the three months to February were 1.7% higher than in the previous quarter; down from 2.3% in January. The annual rate of growth fell to 5.1% from January's 5.7%, the lowest since July 2013. "Housing demand is being supported by an economy that continues to perform well with employment still expanding. Meanwhile, the supply of both new homes and existing properties available for sale remains low. This combination is pushing up prices".
"Adding to the political risks in France is of course the elections in the Netherlands and Germany. The outlook in relation to the German elections has changed somewhat following the emergence of Martin Schulz, who became the SPD candidate for Chancellor. The move has boosted the popularity of the SPD and raised the probability of the CDU/CDS not retaining power following the election in September. Greece has also added to the uncertainty although we do not expect problems in Greece to escalate like before. Discussions will continue and we expect an agreement to be reached before large repayments by Greece are due in July.
In these circumstances, the ECB is likely to remain very determined with its message to the financial markets that the monetary stance will be maintained. The data from the euro-zone continues to improve - the euro-zone Composite PMI jumped to 56.0 in preliminary data for February, consistent with Q/Q real GDP growth of 0.6% - but we doubt this will alter the rhetoric of the ECB any time soon. The annual core CPI rate remains stuck at 0.9% and upward momentum over a period of two to three months would be required before the ECB even considers altering its message. The political uncertainty will continue to provide additional incentive.
While EUR/USD moved lower in February, there is a degree of resilience that suggests our parity forecast for end-Q1 is a little aggressive. We therefore have adjusted our forecasts a little higher, but have maintained the same profile as before".
(Source: Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ )
Copyright © 2017 BTMU, eFXnews™
Moody's Investors Service says that the poor state of housing affordability in Auckland -- despite a recent improvement driven by rising incomes and low interest rates -- is credit negative for New Zealand covered bonds.
"Rising household incomes and record low interest rates have prevented a deterioration in housing affordability in New Zealand over the past year, including in Auckland, the country's largest city," says Karen Burkhardt, a Moody's Associate Analyst.
"However, high housing prices in Auckland -- which accounts for a large proportion of mortgage loans in New Zealand cover pools -- mean that new home owners in the city are spending on average close to half of their monthly income on mortgage repayments, making it considerably less affordable than any other region in the country," adds Burkhardt.
Moody's conclusions were contained in a just-released report on New Zealand covered bonds, "Auckland Housing Affordability Remains Poor Despite Improvement".
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.0788 (1090)
$1.0757 (115)
$1.0712 (31)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0585
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0516 (480)
$1.0469 (590)
$1.0414 (1353)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 32926 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1450 (3872);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36335 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0350 (3886);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 6
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2513 (683)
$1.2417 (189)
$1.2321 (228)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2229
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2180 (354)
$1.2084 (536)
$1.1987 (751)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 11380 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (927);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 14362 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3103);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 6
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
Conditions in the global economy have continued to improve over recent months. Business and consumer confidence have both picked up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. This composition of growth and the rapid increase in borrowing mean that the medium-term risks to Chinese growth remain. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a significant boost to Australia's national income.
Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Long-term bond yields are higher than last year, although in a historical context they remain low. Interest rates are expected to increase further in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and stock markets have mostly risen.
The Australian economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom, expanding by around 2½ per cent in 2016. Exports have risen strongly and non-mining business investment has risen over the past year. Most measures of business and consumer confidence are at, or above, average. Consumption growth was stronger towards the end of the year, although growth in household income remains low".
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 7.4% on December 2016. For December 2016, they increased by 5.2% compared with November 2016, thus confirming the provisional result published in the previous month. Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 2.9% on December 2016.
In January 2017, domestic orders decreased by 10.5% and foreign orders by 4.9% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 7.8% on the previous month, new orders from other countries decreased 2.9% compared to December 2016.