(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0998 +0,25%

GBP/USD $1,2183 -0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,989 -0,11%

USD/JPY Y103,90 -0,25%

EUR/JPY Y114,27 -0,02%

GBP/JPY Y126,58 -0,28%

AUD/USD $0,7631 +0,22%

NZD/USD $0,7170 +1,19%

USD/CAD C$1,3126 -0,09%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September 0.1%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September 2.9%

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September 0.1% 0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September 0.8% 1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September 0.2% 0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September 7.6% 7.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September 0.4% 0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September 1.8% 2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September 0.3% 0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September 0.6% 0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September 1.3% 1.4%

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) August 0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m September 0.2% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y September 1.1% 1.5%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m September 0.3% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y September 2.3% 2.3%

14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index October 65 63

20:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows August 103.9

20:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows August 140.6

"There is very little on in Japan this week to drive the JPY, so it will remain a function of investor sentiment. USD/JPY is one of the G10 crosses most sensitive within our FX Risk Index.

So the US earnings season will be important for the JPY and with the S&P500 trading at 18 times estimated earnings, investors will need to see some strong results to maintain this ratio.

However, as there is a general tendency of actual earnings releases to beat expectations it will be about company CEOs' forward guidance. Elsewhere, it will be about global growth conditions to drive sentiment, especially as there is limited room of major central banks such as the ECB making a case of rising liquidity expectations. The central bank announces its monetary policy this week. When it comes to growth, conditions remain muted as for instance confirmed by this week's trade data out of China.

As a result of the above outlined conditions caution may be warranted when it comes to USD/JPY. A combination of both better risk sentiment and rising US yields may be needed to push the pair higher".

Copyright © 2016 Credit Agricole CIB, eFXnews™

EURUSD 1.0980 (EUR 545m) 1.1000 (232m) 1.1050 (285m) 1.1050 (285m) 1.1115(262m) 1.1150 (222m) 1.1200-05 (491m)

GBPUSD 1.2500 (GBP 260m) 1.2750 (196m)

USDJPY 101.85 (USD 300m) 103.00 (240m) 103.75 (374m) 104.1 (402m) 104.50 (290m)

USDCHF: 0.9700 (250m) 0.9885 (225m)

EURGBP: 0.8600 (EUR 200m)

AUDUSD 0.7450 (AUD 268m) 0.7500 (590m) 0.7750 (433m)

USDCAD: 1.3100 (USD 251m) 1.3200 (274m)

NZDUSD: 0.7120 (NZD 479m)

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in September after falling 0.5 percent in August. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent for its first quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2015. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent in September and moved up at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the third quarter.

In September, the index for utilities declined 1.0 percent; mining posted a gain of 0.4 percent, which partially reversed its August decline. At 104.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in September was 1.0 percent lower than its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged up 0.1 percentage point in September to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2015) average.

Foreign investment in Canadian securities totalled $12.7 billion in August, led by acquisitions of Canadian bonds on the secondary market. At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to $1.6 billion. This resulted in a net inflow of funds of $11.1 billion into the Canadian economy in the month.

This activity marked the eight straight month of net inflow of funds in Canada's international transactions in securities. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investment in Canadian securities has exceeded Canadian investment in foreign securities by $96.9 billion.

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The headline general business conditions index slipped five points to -6.8. The new orders index edged up but remained negative at -5.6, indicating an ongoing drop in orders, and the shipments index increased to -0.6, suggesting that shipments were essentially flat.

Labor market conditions remained weak, with both employment levels and the average workweek reported as lower.

Price indexes increased somewhat, and continued to signal moderate input price increases and a slight increase in selling prices. Indexes for the six-month outlook suggested that manufacturing firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead.

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

9:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index m / m in September 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%

9:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index y / y (final data) September 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%

9:00 Eurozone consumer price index base value, y / y (final data) September 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

The euro rose moderately against the US dollar, reaching the psychological level of $ 1.1000, helped by inflation data for the euro area. The statistical agency Eurostat reported that consumer prices in the eurozone rose by 0.4% after rising 0.2% in September, Annual inflation was -0.1%. Meanwhile, the growth rate of annual inflation accelerated in September to 0.4% from 0.2% in the previous month. Last Change (MoM and YoY) in line with expectations and preliminary estimate. The base index, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.8% year on year, confirming the forecasts and coincided with the previous estimate. In August, the index also increased by 0.8%. The maximum rise in prices in the euro area (in annual terms) was seen in restaurants and cafes (+ 0.08%). Expenses for the rent increased by 0.05%. The cost of tobacco products also increased by 0.05%. Most of the decrease in prices for fuel for transport (-0.12%), gas (-0.11%) and heating oil (-0.10%).

Later today traders expect the United States report on industrial production, as well as speeches form ECB President Draghi and Fed Fisher. According to forecasts, up to September, industrial production rose by 0.2% after falling 0.4% a month earlier.

The pound traded steadily against the dollar, while remaining near the opening level, which was due to the lack of new catalysts. Given the current situation, the pound has growth potential in unexpected positive news.. This week a lot of data will be published, which will allow a better assessment of the state of the British economy. The inflation data, which will be released on Wednesday, will shed light on how the weakening of the pound affects the price. Economists expect that in the next few months will accelerate inflation, putting pressure on consumer spending. Economists also pay attention to the data on retail sales, which will be released on Thursday and show changes in the behavior of British consumers after Brexit.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1003

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.2134

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair traded in a narrow range

EUR/USD

Offers 1.1000 1.1025-30 1.1055 1.1070 1.1085 1.1100-05 1.1130 1.1150

Bids 1.0975 1.0950 1.0920 1.0900 1.0880 1.0850 1.0820-25 1.0800

GBP/USD

Offers 1.2200 1.2220-25 1.2250 1.2265 1.2285 1.2300 1.2325-30 1.2350

Bids 1.2165 1.2145-50 1.2130 1.2100 1.2085 1.2050 1.2000

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.9050 0.9070-75 0.9100 0.9155 0.9200

Bids 0.9000 0.8985 0.8960-65 0.8930 0.8900 0.8850-55

EUR/JPY

Offers 114.60 114.80 115.00 115.50 115.80 116.00 116.25-30 116.50

Bids 114.15 114.00 113.70 113.50 113.00 112.60 112.00

USD/JPY

Offers 104.30 104.50 104.80 105.00 105.50 106.00

Bids 104.00 103.75-85 103.50 103.35 103.20 103.00 102.80 102.50

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7620 0.7635 0.7650 0.7685 0.7700 0.7720

Bids 0.7580 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500 0.7485 0.7450

Euro area annual inflation was 0.4% in September 2016, up from 0.2% in August. In September 2015 the rate was -0.1%. European Union annual inflation was also 0.4% in September 2016, up from 0.3% in August. A year earlier the rate was -0.1%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September 2016, negative annual rates were observed in ten Member States.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Bulgaria (-1.1%), Croatia (-0.7%) and Slovakia (-0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Belgium (1.8%), Estonia (1.7%) and Austria (1.1%). Compared with August 2016, annual inflation fell in nine Member States, remained stable in two and rose in sixteen.

The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés (+0.08 percentage points), rents and tobacco (both +0.05 pp), while fuels for transport (-0.12 pp), gas (-0.11 pp) and heating oil (-0.10 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

EUR/USD 1.0980 (EUR 545m) 1.1000 (232m) 1.1050 (285m) 1.1050 (285m) 1.1115(262m) 1.1150 (222m) 1.1200-05 (491m)

GBP/USD 1.2500 (GBP 260m) 1.2750 (196m)

USD/JPY 101.85 (USD 300m) 103.00 (240m) 103.75 (374m) 104.1 (402m) 104.50 (290m)

USD/CHF: 0.9700 (250m) 0.9885 (225m)

EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (EUR 200m)

AUD/USD 0.7450 (AUD 268m) 0.7500 (590m) 0.7750 (433m)

USD/CAD: 1.3100 (USD 251m) 1.3200 (274m)

NZD/USD: 0.7120 (NZD 479m)

"If crude oil's slide was the nail in the coffin for a strong Canadian dollar, why isn't the loonie rising from the dead as oil stages a comeback? Because it's a rally for the wrong reasons, of insufficient magnitude, and its role in weakening the exchange rate has been overstated in the first place.

Oil's rally is a story about a pending supply cut by OPEC, not a signal of accelerating demand. Had it been a demand-pull story, we would historically have seen other cyclical commodities on the mend, but that's not generally the case. The Bank of Canada's exenergy commodity price index, weighted to the country's activity in the resource space, remains moribund (Chart). Canada's export basket does not live by oil alone, and the weakness in prices for such commodities as copper, potash and uranium, for example, are signposts that global markets aren't yet in great shape. Their softness will still be weighing on Canada's nominal trade balance, one of the drivers for the currency.

The oil rally also isn't nearly enough to get now-delayed mega-projects back on the drawing board. Rig counts in Canada have bottomed, but they're also turning higher stateside, with a US shale oil return representing a wall of supply that will keep higher cost oil sands projects off the table for a few years to come.

Oil can't bear all the blame, because even when we flirted with triple digit WTI prices in 2011-13, Canada was running a large trade and current account deficit. Instead, most of the drop in the Canadian dollar was an overdue correction from an overvalued level attained after the Bank of Canada went solo with rate hikes in 2010.

Much of what the Bank of Canada will say in the week ahead should already be priced in. Governor Poloz is unlikely to cut rates immediately, and the market should already have taken note of hints of a downgrade in the BoC's medium term growth forecast.

But if there's any reaction in the currency, it will be a modest weakening. The OIS futures market has not priced in any chance of an ease in the quarters ahead. While our base case also has a flat path for Canadian overnight rates, don't be surprised if the market prices in some chance of a cut in the months ahead. New mortgage rules should reduce the BoC's fear that a rate cut would fuel a more worrisome housing bubble, and might raise concerns of that a slowing in homebuilding will eat into growth.

Look for a dovish tone in the Bank's message to at least open the door a crack to a rate cut if necessary, a contrast to a more hawkish Fed. That's reason enough to stay short the loonie even as oil creeps higher.

CIBC targets USD/CAD ta 1.35 by the end of the year".

Copyright © 2016 CIBC, eFXnews™

In August 2016 seasonally-adjusted data, compared to July 2016, raised for both flows: +2.6% for exports and +4.4% for imports. Exports increased by 3.9% for EU countries and by 0.9% for non EU countries. Imports grew by +5.7% for non EU countries and by 2.5% for EU countries. During the quarter June-August 2016, seasonally-adjusted data, in comparison with the previous quarter, increased by 1.1% for exports and by 2.7% for imports.

In August 2016, compared with the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 11.4% and imports by 9.4%. Outgoing flows grew by 11.8% for EU countries and by 11.0% for non EU countries. Incoming flows increased by 12.8 for EU area and by 5.2% for non EU area. The trade balance in August amounted to +2,5 billion Euros (+0,4 billion Euros for EU area and +2,1 billion Euros for non EU countries).

The import price index measures the evolution of prices for industrial products bought by industrial and commercial enterprises in Italy, both in the euro zone and the non-euro zone. Since March 2010 indices are compiled in the reference base 2010.

In August 2016 the total import price index stayed unchanged with respect to the previous month (the index stayed unchanged both in euro zone and in non-euro zone); the total twelve-month rate of change decreased by 2.5% (respectively decreased by 1.5% for the euro zone and by 3.3% for the non-euro zone).

The quarterly total index increased by 1.0% compared with the previous period, by 0.4% for the euro zone and by 1.6% for the non-euro zone.

• At 12:45 GMT the ECB member Yves Mersch will make a speech

• At 13:00 GMT the Bundesbank Monthly Report

• At 17:45 GMT the Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent will deliver a speech

• At 19:15 GMT the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will deliver a speech

• At 20:35 GMT the ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech

• Price of property coming to market rebounds by 0.7% (+£2,277) after falling 2.0% over previous two months

• First-time buyers in danger of being marooned by rising prices cutting them off from home-ownership:

• Monthly jump of 3.3% (+£6,240) in price of newly-marketed property with two bedrooms or fewer

• New seller asking prices now almost £20,000 (+10.5%) higher than a year ago in this sector

• Higher prices mean higher deposits and repayments, negating the benefits of falling mortgage rates

• Broadly positive picture overall as the market continues to shake off post-Brexit vote uncertainty:

• Seven out of 10 regions see asking price rises or standstills this month, compared with eight falls last month

• First full week of September sees visits to Rightmove up 8% on same period in 2015

"Since the Conservative party conference in Birmingham just under two weeks ago the market has progressed again through the five stages of "Brexit grief" into acceptance of a Hard Brexit.

The rhetoric from ministers with "red lines" on immigration has considerably lowered the possibility of a "Soft Brexit" in the market's pricing and we have moved more towards the "Clean Break" or "Hard Brexit" outcome. With the market's acceptance of this it has naturally seen GBP suffer. But it is more than just that. It has changed the dynamic we see between UK rates markets and FX that leads us to conclude that we have not yet seen the bottom in GBP, with portfolio inflows less likely to provide the necessary inflows to the UK to plug the current account deficit

We have strategically been short GBP all throughout this time initially targeting 1.25 in GBP/USD before the flash crash, then targeting 1.20 in its aftermath.

From these levels it is less attractive for some to enter fresh shorts, but given the new market dynamic we continue to recommend selling GBP initially to 1.20 and further and for EUR/GBP to break above 0.92.

We head yet again into another weekend with potential for further political headlines. At some point there may be some good news that leads to a GBP positioning squeeze higher (as the market is very short GBP). The current High Court case on parliament's ability to vote on Article 50 is a likely headline risk if it rules in favour of a vote being required. What is also an interesting question will be how much of a squeeze? Prior to the flash crash we would have said a considerable amount (3-4% perhaps), but now with many short positions in the exotic options space likely to have been cleared out perhaps it won't be such a position squeeze. Over the last few sessions we are inclined to say that GBP has been trading in a way that would imply that short-term positioning is a lot cleaner.

So if there is any rally it should be shortlived and will be used by the market as an opportunity to sell at better levels unless of course it is due to a complete reversal of position from politicians on the current "Hard Brexit" stance".

Copyright © 2016 Nomura, eFXnews™

• Comments in WSJ Interview

• Jobless Rate Drifting Below 4.7

• Market Expectations for December Rate Move Are 'Reasonable'

• Suggests Using Balance Sheet to Steepen Yield Curve

According to rttnews, Japan's industrial production rebounded less than initially estimated in August, final figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday.

Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent month-over-month in August instead of a 1.5 percent increase reported earlier. This was followed by a 0.4 percent drop in July.

Shipments dropped 1.1 percent over the month, revised from a 1.3 percent decline estimated initially. At the same time, inventories increased 0.3 percent in August, revised up from 0.1 percent.

On an annual basis, industrial production expanded 4.5 percent from July, when it fell by 4.2 percent. It was the first rise in five months.

The capacity utilisation grew at a faster pace of 2.6 percent monthly in August, following a 0.6 percent gain in the preceding month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1179 (2285)

$1.1143 (1437)

$1.1087 (731)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0985

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0922 (7738)

$1.0892 (5078)

$1.0857 (3051)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 4 is 35327 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1300 (3749);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 4 is 44395 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (7738);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.25 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 14

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2504 (968)

$1.2407 (709)

$1.2311 (1059)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2156

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2089 (1461)

$1.1992 (568)

$1.1894 (458)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 4 is 28544 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2210);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 4 is 28504 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2300 (1462);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.