During the American session the euro fluctuates against the US dollar on news of Greece. Euro opened the day gap after Sunday population of Greece has chosen to accept or reject the draft agreement submitted by the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund at a meeting of the Eurogroup (Council of finance ministers of the euro area) on June 25. After counting 100% of ballots referendum it became known that against the signing of the agreement on financial aid voted 61.31% of Greeks. "For" the signing voted 38.69% of the population. Commenting on the results of the referendum, the head of the Eurogroup and the Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Jeroen Deysselblum called them "very sad" for the country's future. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras welcomed the results of the referendum and said that Athens are returning to negotiations with the immediate aim to resume the work of banks that do not work for a week after it was introduced capital controls.
We also add that today the head of the European Commission, the finance ministers of the Eurogroup and the ECB were to meet and discuss the potential consequences of the referendum. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande met in Paris to work out a common strategy before the next meeting of the Eurogroup. The Governing Council of the ECB will also hold a meeting today, during which will be discussed in terms of program lending Greek banks ELA. Analysts predict that the Central Bank will close the ELA at least July 20, which may entail the need to type in the country for the national currency liquidity and capital injections into banks. Also, the Central Bank may discuss measures aimed at to calm financial markets.
Little support was data from Sentix, which showed that, despite the crisis in Greece, the index of investor confidence in the euro zone unexpectedly improved in July, retreating from a 4-month low. The index of investor confidence rose to 18.5 against 17.1 in June. According to forecasts, the index was down to 16.0.
The US dollar rose against the yen after data ISM. In June, the index of business activity in the US service sector, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), increased, reaching 56.0 at the same level as compared with the May reading at the level of 55.7. According to experts, the value of this indicator was to increase to 56.2.
Frank fell moderately against the US currency. The impact on the currency had a statement of the Minister of Economy of Switzerland, who in an interview with Le Temps noted that the upward pressure on the franc strengthened after the referendum. He added that the SNB can review the situation (ie to intervene). Yesterday's referendum, in which the Greeks voted against the austerity measures, increase the likelihood of risk aversion in the event of a Greek exit from the eurozone.
The Canadian dollar was down against the US dollar. Purchasing Managers Index (Ivey PMI) in June, with the seasonally adjusted 55.9, pointing to the growth of purchasing activity in Canada, as compared to May. The index, which measures the economic activity of a group of purchasing managers in the various regions of Canada, sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University. A reading above 50 indicates growth in activity, while values below 50 indicate about her fall.
The employment index in June was 50.7, indicating growth in employment from the previous month.
The index of inventories amounted to 48.9, indicating the decline in inventories compared with the previous month.
The price index in June was 59.4, pointing to a rise in prices compared with the previous month.
Shipments index was 48.8, signaling a slowdown in deliveries compared with the previous month.
All data seasonally adjusted.
Unadjusted PMI Ivey in June was 59.5.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Monday that Greece's creditors should also focus on strategies to boost economic growth.
"We have been urging for months to talk not only about austerity and balance sheets but about growth, infrastructure, common policies on migration, innovation, the environment," he wrote on his Facebook page.
Canada's seasonally adjusted Ivey purchasing managers' index dropped to 55.9 in May from 62.3 in April. Analysts had expected the index to decrease to 55.0.
A reading above 50 indicates a rise in the pace of activity, below 50 indicates a contraction in the pace of activity.
The supplier deliveries index was 48.8 in May, while employment index was 50.7.
Inventories index was 48.9.
The Institute for Supply Management released its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the U.S. on Monday. The index climbed to 56.0 in June from 55.7 in May, missing expectations for a increase to 56.2.
A reading above 50 indicates a growth in the service sector.
The subindexes were mixed.
The business activity/production index rose to 61.5 in June from 59.5 in May.
The ISM's new orders index increased to 58.3 in June from 57.9 in May.
The ISM's employment index declined to 52.7 in June from 55.3 in May.
The ISM's price index fell to 53.0 in June from 55.9 in May.
Markit Economics released its final services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. on Monday. The final U.S. services PMI declined to 54.8 in June from 56.2 in May, in line with the preliminary reading.
A reading over 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
The decline was driven by a slowdown in employment and output growth.
The employment subindex decreased to 54.1 in June from 55.5 in May.
"Although still signalling moderate growth in June, the manufacturing and service sector surveys indicate that the rate of economic expansion has slowed markedly since the start of the quarter, when business was boosted by a rebound from weather related weakness. The loss of growth momentum seen in the surveys means GDP growth could slacken off again in the third quarter and hiring could likewise ease off," Markit Economics Chief Economist Chris Williamson noted.
EUR/USD: $1.0900(E1.02bn), $1.1000(E986mn), $1.1015(E1.1bn), $1.1100(E1.7bn)
USD/JPY: Y121.00($369mn), Y121.50($510mn), Y122.00($390mn), Y123.50($917mn)
EUR/JPY: Y134.50(E225mn), Y137.00(E283mn)
AUD/USD: $0.7500(A$324mn), $0.7550 (A$562M), $0.7650(A$444M)
NZD/USD: $0.6750(NZ$687M)
According the Kremlin, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed by phone on Monday the results of Sunday's referendum. There is no mention of possible Russian financial help.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Christian Noyer said on Monday that Greece's debt held by the central bank cannot be restructured.
"Greek debt held by the Eurosystem is debt that cannot by its very nature be restructured because that would be monetary financing of a state," he said.
According to a Greek government official, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke by phone on Monday with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. He agreed to present new Greek proposal at Tuesday's European Union (EU) summit.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m June 0.3% 0.1%
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June 0.0% 1.3%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) May 106.4 106.2
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) May 111 109.2
06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May 2.2% Revised From 1.4% -0.4% -0.2%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) June 0.2% -0.1% 0.1%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) June -1.2% -1.2% -1.0%
The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies ahead of U.S. economic data The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index is expected to rise to 56.2 in June from 55.7 in May.
The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar on the results of the referendum in Greece. 61.31% of Greeks voted "No" in the Sunday's referendum, while 38.69% of Greeks voted "Yes".
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned after the referendum.
"Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some eurogroup participants, and assorted 'partners', for my… 'absence' from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement," he said in his blog on early Monday.
Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday that the outcome of the referendum is "regrettable".
"I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July," he said.
Meanwhile, the economic data from the Eurozone was better than expected. Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index increased to 18.5 in July from 17.1 in June, missing expectations for a decline to 18.7. The index rose despite the uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis.
German seasonal adjusted factory orders declined 0.2% in May, beating expectations for a 0.4% drop, after a 2.2% rise in April. April's figure was revised up from a 1.4% gain.
The decline was driven by a drop in new orders from the Eurozone. New orders from the Eurozone plunged 1.5% in May, while orders from other countries increased 1.2%.
The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the U.K.
The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar despite the better-than-expected consumer price inflation from Switzerland. Switzerland's consumer price index rose 0.1% in June, beating expectations for a 0.1% decrease, after a 0.2% rise in May.
On a yearly basis, Switzerland's consumer price index increased to -1.0% in June from -1.2% in May, beating forecasts of a 1.2% decline.
EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.1001
GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y122.94
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index June 62.3 55
14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 55.7 56.2
14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index June 1.3
EUR/USD
Offers 1.1085 1.1100 1.1120 1.1145-50 1.1180 1.1200 1.1220-25 1.1245 1.1280 1.1300
Bids 1.1025 1.1000 1.0980 1.0960 1.0930 1.0900 1.0880 1.0850 1.0825 1.0800
GBP/USD
Offers 1.5625 1.5640-50 1.5665 1.5680 1.5700 1.5725 1.5750-55 1.5780 1.5800
Bids 1.5525 1.5500 1.5485 1.5470 1.5450 1.5430 1.5400
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.7125-30 0.7150 0.7170 0.7180-85 0.7200 0.7225 0.7240
Bids 0.7085-90 0.7075 0.7055-60 0.7040 0.7020 0.7000 0.6985 0.6965 0.6950
EUR/JPY
Offers 136.00 136.40 136.80 137.00 137.30 137.50 137.80 138.00 138.50
Bids 135.50 135.20 135.00 134.85 134.50 134.00 133.85 133.50
USD/JPY
Offers 122.70 122.85 123.00 123.20-25 123.50 123.80 124.00 124.20 124.50
Bids 122.20-25 122.00 121.80 121.65 121.50 121.00
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7520 0.7550 0.7580 0.7600 0.7625 0.7640 0.7660 0.7680 0.7700 0.7725-30
Bids 0.7480-85 0.7465 0.7450 0.7425 0.7400 0.7380 0.7350
Spanish statistical office INE released its industrial production figures for Spain on Monday. Industrial production in Spain was up 0.8% in May, after a 0.1% gain in April.
On a yearly basis, industrial production in Spain climbed at adjusted 3.4% in May, after a revised 1.7% increase in April.
The increase was driven by a rise in all subindexes. Output of capital goods jumped 6.2% in May, output of intermediate goods climbed 4.9%, energy production was up 3.3%, while consumer goods output rose 0.3%.
Market research group Sentix released its investor confidence index for the Eurozone on Monday. The index increased to 18.5 in July from 17.1 in June, missing expectations for a decline to 18.7.
A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
The index rose despite the uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis.
The current conditions index jumped to 14.5 in July from 11.8 in June. It was the highest level since July 2011.
The expectations index fell to 22.3 in July from 22.5 in June.
German investor confidence index remained unchanged at 26.8 in July.
EUR/USD: $1.0900(E1.02bn), $1.1000(E986mn), $1.1015(E1.1bn), $1.1100(E1.7bn)
USD/JPY: Y121.00($369mn), Y121.50($510mn), Y122.00($390mn), Y123.50($917mn)
EUR/JPY: Y134.50(E225mn), Y137.00(E283mn)
AUD/USD: $0.7500(A$324mn), $0.7550 (A$562M), $0.7650(A$444M)
NZD/USD: $0.6750(NZ$687M)
The Swiss Federal Statistics Office released its consumer inflation data on Monday. Switzerland's consumer price index rose 0.1% in June, beating expectations for a 0.1% decrease, after a 0.2% rise in May.
On a yearly basis, Switzerland's consumer price index increased to -1.0% in June from -1.2% in May, beating forecasts of a 1.2% decline.
Food and beverages prices dropped at an annual rate of 0.8% in June, clothing and footwear prices climbed 0.6%, while housing and energy prices declined 0.4%.
Destatis released its factory orders data for Germany on Monday. German seasonal adjusted factory orders declined 0.2% in May, beating expectations for a 0.4% drop, after a 2.2% rise in April. April's figure was revised up from a 1.4% gain.
The decline was driven by a drop in new orders from the Eurozone. New orders from the Eurozone plunged 1.5% in May, while orders from other countries increased 1.2%.
Foreign orders climbed by 0.2% in May, while domestic orders decreased by 0.6%.
The intermediate goods climbed by 1.3% in May, capital goods orders were down 0.8%, while consumer goods orders decreased 1.2%.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned after Greeks said "No" to the creditors' proposals.
"Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some eurogroup participants, and assorted 'partners', for my… 'absence' from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement," he said in his blog on early Monday.
Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Sunday that the outcome of the referendum is "regrettable".
"I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July," he said.
European Parliament President Martin Schulz expressed his pessimism regarding Greece will get a deal with better conditions after voting "no". He also said that Europe needs to urgently discuss a possible humanitarian aid programme for Greece.
"The promise of the minister of finance that the banks will open tomorrow and that money will be available for tomorrow and Tuesday seems to me very difficult and dangerous. And, therefore, because I believe that the Greek people will be, during the week and even every day in a more difficult situation, I think we should tomorrow, at the latest on Tuesday for the Eurozone summit discuss a possible humanitarian aid programme for Greece," Schulz said.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Vitor Constancio said in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Friday that it will be difficult to reach a deal between Greece and its lenders if Greeks vote "No".
"That of course would imply that the situation also in Greece becomes more difficult because the situation of banks will become weaker, if an agreement is not possible in short period of time," he said.
But Constancio added that the central bank was ready to deal with any situation.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m June 0.3% 0.1%
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June 0.0% 1.3%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) May 106.4 106.2
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) May 111 109.2
06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May 1.4% -0.4% -0.2%
The euro fell in early Asian trade after official figures showed that 61.31% of Greeks rejected the latest bailout offer and only 38.69% supported it. However the single currency managed to withstand this shock and pared losses after a while. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet this afternoon to discuss Greece's situation.
The Greece's referendum turned out to be positive for the yen providing this safe-haven asset with support.
The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar after TS Securities published weak inflation data. In June the consumer price index fell to 0.1% compared to its previous reading of 0.3%. On an annualized basis the index rose to 1.5% from 1.4%. Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a monetary policy meeting and the bank is expected to keep things as they are.
EUR/USD: the pair declined to $1.0980 in Asian trade
USD/JPY: the pair fell to Y121.85
GBP/USD: the pair fell to $1.5540
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) June 0.2% -0.1%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) June -1.2% -1.2%
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) June 56.2 54.8
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index June 62.3 55
14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 55.7 56.2
14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index June 1.3
23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June 47.8
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1269 (1657)
$1.1227 (575)
$1.1193 (415)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1064
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0994 (1007)
$1.0952 (1207)
$1.0899 (1228)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 38389 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (2828);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 46612 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (5002);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.44 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 2
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.5806 (1105)
$1.5709 (267)
$1.5614 (1648)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.5588
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.5490 (1102)
$1.5393 (910)
$1.5295 (640)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 14737 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5600 (1648);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 14492 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5600 (1620);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.98 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 2
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1112 +0,23%
GBP/USD $1,5567 -0,24%
USD/CHF Chf0,9397 -0,38%
USD/JPY Y122,84 -0,18%
EUR/JPY Y136,50 +0,06%
GBP/JPY Y191,43 -0,31%
AUD/USD $0,7513 -1,58%
NZD/USD $0,6693 -0,40%
USD/CAD C$1,2575 +0,27%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m June 0.3%
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June 0.0%
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) May 106.4
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) May 111
06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) May 1.4% -0.4%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) June 0.2% -0.1%
07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) June -1.2% -1.2%
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Finally) June 56.2 54.8
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index June 62.3 55
14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 55.7 56.2
14:00 U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index June 1.3
23:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index June 47.8