The pound rose more than 100 points against the dollar, updating the three-week high. Support currency had the results of another survey on the subject of the referendum, which confirmed once again that the number of British exit from the EU exceeds the number of opponents Brekzita supporters - 44% of respondents in favor of the preservation of the country in the EU, and 38% - against.
The growth of the pound also helped yesterday's comments head of the Bank of England Carney. Recall, Carney said that the Central Bank will provide stability and order in the markets in anticipation Brekzita, using auctions to provide liquidity. Carney said that if Britain left the EU, the next likely step will be the Central Bank interest rate rise
Later this week, investors will be watching the consumer confidence index of the UK, as well as the report on GDP. Given the economic slowdown, the rise of political uncertainty and the decline in the index GfK in the last month, experts predict that the consumer confidence index drops again. Meanwhile, the second estimate of GDP for the 1st quarter, is likely to confirm the early predictions of slowing economic growth. According to expert estimates, GDP grew by 0.4% after rising 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 2.1%.
The dollar fell slightly against the euro retreated from a two-week high, which was associated with the publication of weak US economic activity data. The Markit Economics reported that activity in the US service sector continued to expand in May, but the growth rate slowed to 3-month low, which was associated with a relatively subdued demand from customers and the less favorable domestic economic conditions. Preliminary PMI index for the services sector in May fell to 51.2 points versus 52.8 points in April. Economists had expected an increase to 53.1 points. The pace of activity growth in May was much weaker than the long-term average (55.6). The Markit Economics said that new orders continued to rise in May, but the weakest pace since the end of 2009. Some firms reported a cyclical downturn in investment spending and the reluctance of clients to implement new projects. Subdued demand has also helped reduce the backlog. At the same time, hiring the services sector firms rose in May, but only slightly. Procurement inflation rose for the second time in May, recording the maximum rate since July 2015. Meanwhile, the average selling prices also increased, but only slightly.
Investors also await Fed Chairman Yellen speech, scheduled for Friday, which may to some extent make it clear whether the Central Bank will raise interest rates soon. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike in June is 38% versus 4% at the beginning of last week, and is estimated at 60% in July.
The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the US dollar, approaching to the maximum 19 May. The main influence on the currency have had the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada. Recall, the Central Bank has left its main interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada reported that economic growth in the 1st quarter of approximately corresponded to earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, the Central Bank said that GDP growth in the 2nd quarter will be lower than expected due to the forest fires in the oil-rich province of Alberta. According to estimates of the Bank of Canada, forest fires in Alberta may take 1.25 percentage points from GDP growth in the 2nd quarter. "Restoring economic growth must take place in the 3rd quarter of this year due to increased production volumes and the start of work on the restoration of the fires in the province", - reported in the Bank of Canada,.
World Trade Organization (WTO) Director General Roberto Azevedo said in an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday that Britain's exit from the European Union (EU) would cost Britain $13.2 billion in annual additional import tariffs, adding that the country's trade deals had to be renegotiated.
"Pretty much all of the UK's trade would somehow have to be negotiated," he said.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its construction work done figures on Wednesday. Construction work done in Australia dropped 2.6% in the first quarter, missing forecasts of a 1.5% fall, after a 2.9% decrease in the previous quarter. The fourth quarter's figure was revised up from a 3.6% decline.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 1.0% in the first quarter, while engineering work slid 4.2%.
On a yearly basis, total construction work plunged 6.7% in the first quarter.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker said on Wednesday that that he expected the Fed could raise its interest rate two to three times this year. He noted that U.S. presidential election would not have an impact on the Fed's monetary policy.
Philadelphia Fed president pointed out that there were no significant risks from China.
Harker is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, noting that the current monetary policy was still appropriate. This decision was expected by analysts.
The BoC noted that the Canadian economic growth in the first quarter was in line with the BoC's forecasts, adding that the growth in the second quarter would be weaker than previously expected due to wildfires in Alberta. According to the central bank, the economy was expected to rebound in the third quarter due to higher oil prices.
The central bank also said that business investment and intentions remained disappointing.
According to the central bank, inflation was evolving as anticipated by the BoC, and rose due to higher oil prices.
Risks around the inflation are roughly balanced, the central bank said.
The BoC added that household vulnerabilities increased.
Markit Economics released its preliminary services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. on Wednesday. The U.S. preliminary services purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 51.2 in May from 52.8 in April.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction of activity, a reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The decline was driven by subdued client demand and less favourable domestic economic conditions.
Job creation slowed to the weakest level since December 2014, while business optimism slid to the lowest level since October 2009.
"A deterioration in the survey data for May deal a blow to hopes that the US economy will rebound in the second quarter after the dismal start to the year," Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson said.
"Service sector growth has slowed in May to one of the weakest rates seen since 2009, and manufacturing is already in its steepest downturn since the recession," he added.
The National Bank of Belgium (NBB) released its business survey on Wednesday. The business climate declined to -2.8 in May from -2.4 in April. Analysts had expected the index to decrease to -2.6.
The business climate index for the manufacturing sector was down to -6.3 in May from -4.9 in April due to a less favourable assessments of stock levels.
The business climate index for the services sector rose to 12.7 in May from 10.8 in April due to a more favourable assessment of activity.
The business climate index for the building sector increased to -2.6 in May from-3.2 in April due to a more favourable assessment of current order books.
The business climate index for the trade sector climbed to -4.6 in May from -7.2 in April due a rise in demand.
USD/JPY 111.00 (USD 342m)
EUR/USD: 1.1150 (EUR 367m)
USD/CHF 0.9820 (USD 200m)
AUD/USD 0.7200 (AUD 292m) 0.7300 (255m) 0.7385 (218m)
USD/CAD 1.2650 (USD 350m) 1.3050 (590m)
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
01:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter I -2.9% Revised From -3.6% -1.5% -2.6%
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey June 9.7 9.7 9.8
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator April 1.40 Revised From 1.51 1.47
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 106.7 Revised From 106.6 106.8 107.7
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 100.5 Revised From 100.4 100.8 101.6
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 113.2 113.2 114.2
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 11.5 17.5
The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the U.S. preliminary services PMI data.
The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the positive economic data from Germany. German Ifo Institute released its business confidence figures for Germany on Wednesday. German business confidence index rose to 107.7 in May from 106.7 in April, exceeding expectations for an increase to 106.8. April's reading was revised up from 106.6.
"Business confidence in German industry and trade has improved in all four main sectors. In construction a new record high has even been reached," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said.
"The German economy is growing at a robust pace," he added.
Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index climbed to 9.8 in June from 9.7 in May. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 9.7.
"Private consumption will remain an important pillar of the German economy over the next few months. GfK therefore still stands by the forecast it made at the start of the year that real private consumer spending will climb by around 2 percent in 2016. This figure stood at 1.9 percent in 2015," Gfk noted.
The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic data from the U.K.
The Canadian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged.
The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group showed on Wednesday that Switzerland's economic sentiment index climbed to 17.5 in May from 11.5 in April.
"Economic expectations have reached their highest assessment balance since October 2015," the ZEW said.
UBS released its consumption index for Switzerland on Wednesday. The UBS consumption index increased to 1.47 in April from 1.40 in March. March's figure was revised down from 1.51. The increase was driven by positive trends in tourism and new car registrations.
EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
GBP/USD: the currency pair climbed to $1.4695
USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y110.27
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) May 52.8
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%
14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May 1.31 -2.5
EUR/USD
Offers : 1.1160-65 1.1200 1.1230 1.1250 1.1280-85 1.1300 1.1325 1.1355-60
Bids: 1.1125-30 1.1100 1.1080 1.1065 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000
GBP/USD
Offers : 1.4635 1.4650 1.4670 1.4685 1.4700 1.4750
Bids: 1.4600 1.4585 1.4550 1.4500 1.4480 1.4465 1.4450 1.4420-25 1.4400
EUR/GBP
Offers : 0.7635 0.7650 0.7675-80 0.7700-05 0.7730 0.7755-60
Bids: 0.7600-10 0.7580 0.7565 0.7550 0.7530 0.7500
EUR/JPY
Offers : 122.80 123.00 123.30 123.60 123.80 124.00 124.30 124.50 124.70-75 125.00
Bids: 122.50 122.25 122.00 121.70 121.50 121.20 121.00
USD/JPY
Offers : 110.20-35 110.50 110.65 110.80 111.00 111.50
Bids: 109.85 109.65 109.50 109.20 109.00 108.75 108.50 108.30 108.20 108.00
AUD/USD
Offers : 0.7220-25 0.7250 0.7260 0.7280 0.7300 0.7325-30 0.7350
Bids: 0.7175-80 0.7155-60 0.7130 0.7100 0.7080 0.7065 0.7050
The Italian statistical office Istat released its industrial orders data for Italy on Wednesday. Industrial orders in Italy dropped at a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3% in March, after a 0.7% increase in February.
Domestic orders were down 1.6% in March, while non-domestic orders declined 5.8%.
On a yearly basis, the unadjusted industrial orders in Italy increased 0.1% in March, after a 3.8% rise in February.
The seasonally adjusted industrial turnover in Italy fell 1.6% in March, after a 0.1% increase in February.
Domestic turnover decreased 2.6% in March, while non-domestic turnover rose 0.1%.
On a yearly basis, the adjusted industrial turnover in Italy declined 3.6% in March, after a 0.2% decrease in February.
Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index climbed to 9.8 in June from 9.7 in May. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 9.7.
The economic expectations index increased by 2.0 points to 8.3 points in May, while the willingness to buy index rose by 2.3 points to 57.7.
The income expectations index slid by 5.7 points to 51.8 in May.
"Private consumption will remain an important pillar of the German economy over the next few months. GfK therefore still stands by the forecast it made at the start of the year that real private consumer spending will climb by around 2 percent in 2016. This figure stood at 1.9 percent in 2015," Gfk noted.
UBS released its consumption index for Switzerland on Wednesday. The UBS consumption index increased to 1.47 in April from 1.40 in March. March's figure was revised down from 1.51.
The increase was driven by positive trends in tourism and new car registrations.
The Spanish statistical office INE released its producer price index (PPI) data for Spain on Wednesday. The Spanish producer prices decreased 0.1% in April, after a 0.6% rise in March.
On a yearly basis, producer price inflation in Spain fell 6.1% in April, after a 5.4% decline in March. It was the biggest drop since July 2009
Producer prices have been declining since July 2014.
Energy prices slid 10.9% year-on-year in April, capital goods prices rose 0.7%, and consumer goods prices were flat, while intermediate goods prices declined 2.8%.
German Ifo Institute released its business confidence figures for Germany on Wednesday. German business confidence index rose to 107.7 in May from 106.7 in April, exceeding expectations for an increase to 106.8. April's reading was revised up from 106.6.
"Business confidence in German industry and trade has improved in all four main sectors. In construction a new record high has even been reached," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said.
"The German economy is growing at a robust pace," he added.
The Ifo current conditions index increased to 114.2 from 113.2. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 113.2.
The Ifo expectations index climbed to 101.6 from 100.5, beating expectations for a rise to 100.8. April's reading was revised up from 100.4.
A survey by the ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group showed on Wednesday that Switzerland's economic sentiment index climbed to 17.5 in May from 11.5 in April.
"Economic expectations have reached their highest assessment balance since October 2015," the ZEW said.
The current conditions rose to 0.0 in May from -0.1 in April.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday that the central bank was ready to add further stimulus measures if the yen would fluctuate extremely and if there were risks for inflation outlook.
"If foreign exchange moves, as with other factors, affect our ability to meet our price target, we would take additional easing steps," he said.
Statistics New Zealand released its trade data on late Tuesday evening. New Zealand's trade surplus widened to NZ$292 million in April from NZ$189 million in March. March's figure was revised up from a surplus of NZ$117 million.
Analysts had expected the surplus to narrow to NZ$60 million.
Exports rose 4.0% year-on-year in April, mainly driven by fruit exports, while imports increased by 1.5%, led by consumption goods.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Vitor Constancio said in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday that there was no need to discuss further stimulus measures as the recent measures needed more time to take effect.
"Let us see what the effects are. These sorts of measures take time and some have not even been implemented," he said.
Greece will get €10.3 billion in loans from the third bailout programme. Eurozone finance ministers agreed to unlock next tranche after talks in Brussels. Ministers also agreed to potentially offer Greece debt relief.
USD/JPY 111.00 (USD 342m)
EUR/USD: 1.1150 (EUR 367m)
USD/CHF 0.9820 (USD 200m)
AUD/USD 0.7200 (AUD 292m) 0.7300 (255m) 0.7385 (218m)
USD/CAD 1.2650 (USD 350m) 1.3050 (590m)
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1319 (3473)
$1.1280 (2659)
$1.1220 (1113)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1152
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1105 (8208)
$1.1052 (5319)
$1.1018 (3409)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 3 is 70596 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (5108);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 3 is 87721 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (8208);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 24
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.4901 (2060)
$1.4803 (1705)
$1.4706 (2259)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.4622
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.4592 (846)
$1.4496 (1251)
$1.4398 (1566)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 3 is 32869 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4600 (2464);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 3 is 34495 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2930);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 24
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
The dollar stood near a two-month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after robust U.S. housing data supported the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term. The U.S. currency also gained on the safe-haven yen as investor risk aversion ebbed on the back of a bounce in European and U.S. equities. The upbeat housing numbers backed the Fed's April policy meeting minutes, released last week, which hinted that the central bank may raise rates soon if the economy appeared strong enough.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also due to speak on Friday, which is also the concluding day for the Ise-Shima G7 Summit being held in Japan. Once the G7 summit is out of the way, markets will be focusing whether Tokyo may look to postpone a sales tax hike and implement fiscal stimulus steps.
The Aussie was hit after the market took comments by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens to mean the central bank could further ease monetary policy in coming months. Surprisingly low inflation prompted the RBA to cut the cash rate to a record low 1.75 percent earlier this month and has investors betting on at least another easing this year.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.1160
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.4600-20
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair dropped to Y109.85
Based on Reuters materials
(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,1139 -0,72%
GBP/USD $1,4621 +0,95%
USD/CHF Chf0,9932 +0,38%
USD/JPY Y109,97 +0,69%
EUR/JPY Y122,50 -0,01%
GBP/JPY Y160,8 +1,64%
AUD/USD $0,7184 -0,52%
NZD/USD $0,6736 -0,34%
USD/CAD C$1,3129 -0,11%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter I -3.6% -1.5%
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey June 9.7 9.7
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator April 1.51
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 106.6 106.8
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 100.4 100.8
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 113.2 113.2
09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 11.5
13:00 Belgium Business Climate May -2.4 -2.6
13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) May 52.8
14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%
14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May 1.31