Major U.S. stock indexes mixed on Wednesday as Apple's disappointing forecast and oil prices comeback, ahead of the Federal Reserve's statement on monetary policy.
Apple's shares were down 4% after the company also reported its slowest-ever rise in iPhone shipments on Tuesday. The stock was the biggest influence on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
Oil futures turned higher after trading down as much as 4%, near $30 a barrel as data showed a jump in weekly demand for products such as heating oil when a cold front hit the country, although analysts said the rise in prices may not last long.
Almost all of Dow stocks in positive area (24 of 30). Top looser - The Boeing Company (BA, -6,68%). Top gainer - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, +2,46%).
Almost all S&P sectors also in positive area. Top gainer - Basic Materials (+1,6%).
At the moment:
Dow 16121.00 +55.00 +0.34%
S&P 500 1905.50 +9.50 +0.50%
Nasdaq 100 4206.50 -20.25 -0.48%
Oil 32.73 +1.28 +4.07%
Gold 1117.40 -2.80 -0.25%
U.S. 10yr 2.04 +0.05
Stock indices traded lower ahead of the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting results later in the day. Analysts expect the Fed to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Benoît Cœuré said on Wednesday that Eurozone's countries should use fiscal space to boost the economic growth in the Eurozone.
"Using fiscal space would speed up the euro area's return to growth and support the ECB's objective of medium-term price stability. But, in many countries, such fiscal space simply does not exist, because rules have not been enforced in the past," he said.
Meanwhile, the economic data from the Eurozone was better than expected. Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 9.4 in February, beating expectations for a drop to 9.3.
"The consumer climate has therefore been able to withstand the recent growth in risks it is facing. However, in the next few months the escalating terror threat and the rising fears among certain groups of the population that Germany could eventually become overstretched by the persistently high influx of refugees and asylum seekers may cause consumer confidence to wane in the long term. In turn, this would have a lasting impact on the consumer climate," Gfk noted.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Wednesday. French consumer confidence index rose to 97 in January from 96 in December. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 96.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) released the number of mortgage approvals in the U.K. on Wednesday. The number of mortgage approvals decreased to 43,975 in December from 44,533 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 45,500. November's figure was revised up from 45,437.
"Last year was a strong year for household borrowing. There was a 6% rise in mortgage borrowing compared to 2014 and consumer credit expanded at more than 5% annually within an overall unsecured market which is growing at nearly 10% annually," the chief economist at the BBA, Richard Woolhouse, said.
The Nationwide Building Society released its house prices data for the U.K. on Wednesday. UK house prices were up 0.3% in January, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise, after a 0.8% increase in December.
On a yearly basis, house prices fell to 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December. Analysts had expected house prices to rise by 4.7%.
"As we look ahead, the risks are skewed towards a modest acceleration in house price growth, at least at the national level, Robert Gardner, said.
Indexes on the close:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 5,990.37 +78.91 +1.33 %
DAX 9,880.82 +58.07 +0.59 %
CAC 40 4,380.36 +23.55 +0.54 %
Oil prices rose despite an increase in U.S. crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its crude oil inventories data on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories increased by 8.38 million barrels to 494.9 million in the week to January 22.
Analysts had expected U.S. crude oil inventories to rise by 3.3 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels, according to the EIA.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 771,000 barrels.
U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 69,000 barrels per day.
Refineries in the U.S. were running at 87.4% of capacity, down from 90.6% the previous week.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that according to senior Russian officials, Russia's government did not discuss cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
WTI crude oil for March delivery rose to $31.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent crude oil for March increased to $32.40 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
Polish equity market closed higher on Wednesday. The broad market measure, the WIG Index, added 0.73%. Sector-wise, utilities stocks (+1.71%) fared the best, while oil and gas sector names (-1.14%) tumbled the most.
The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, advanced by 0.87%. Within the index components, bank ALIOR (WSE: ALR) led the gainers with a 4.62% surge. It was followed by chemical producer GRUPA AZOTY (WSE: ATT), bank MBANK (WSE: MBK) and genco PGE (WSE: PGE), which grew by 3.87%, 2.95% and 2.74% respectively. At the same time, the session's biggest decliners were coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW), oil refiner PKN ORLEN (WSE: PKN) and property developer GTC (WSE: GTC), which fell by 3.76%, 1.54% and 1.01% respectively.
Gold price slightly declined ahead of the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting results later in the day. Analysts expect the Fed to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on gold. The U.S. dollar rose after the release of the U.S. housing market data. The U.S. Commerce Department released new home sales data on Wednesday. New home sales increased 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 units in December from 491,000 units in November. November's figure was revised up from 490,000 units. Analysts had expected new home sales to reach 500,000 units.
February futures for gold on the COMEX today fell to 1116.10 dollars per ounce.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Benoît Cœuré said on Wednesday that Eurozone's countries should use fiscal space to boost the economic growth in the Eurozone.
"Using fiscal space would speed up the euro area's return to growth and support the ECB's objective of medium-term price stability. But, in many countries, such fiscal space simply does not exist, because rules have not been enforced in the past," he said.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its crude oil inventories data on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories increased by 8.38 million barrels to 494.9 million in the week to January 22.
Analysts had expected U.S. crude oil inventories to rise by 3.3 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels, according to the EIA.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 771,000 barrels.
U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 69,000 barrels per day.
Refineries in the U.S. were running at 87.4% of capacity, down from 90.6% the previous week.
Rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed New Zealand's sovereign debt rating at 'AA' on Tuesday, but downgraded the outlook to "stable" from "positive". The reason for the downgrade was a weaker growth outlook.
"Fitch expects a slight rebound in business investment from its currently subdued level, and continued high net immigration levels to support consumption growth. We assume this will be partly offset by lower dairy production and slower residential investment growth, with stronger construction activity in Auckland unable to fully replace a decreasing contribution from the Canterbury rebuild," the agency said.
The U.S. Commerce Department released new home sales data on Wednesday. New home sales increased 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 units in December from 491,000 units in November. November's figure was revised up from 490,000 units.
Analysts had expected new home sales to reach 500,000 units.
The increase was mainly driven by higher sales in the Midwest. New home sales in the Midwest soared 31.6% in December.
China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday that profits of industrial companies in China declined 4.7% in December from a year earlier, after a 1.4% fall in November.
In 2015 as whole, industrial profits fell 2.3% from a year earlier.
Profits in the mining sector dropped 58.2% in 2015, while manufacturing profits rose 2.8%.
The German government on Wednesday lowered its growth forecasts for 2016 due to the slowdown in emerging economies, which could lead to lower exports. The government expects the German economy to expand 1.7% this year, down from its previous forecast of a 1.8% growth.
Exports are expected to rise 3.2% in 2016, while imports are expected to increase 4.8%.
The government forecasts domestic consumption to rise 1.9% this year.
U.S. stock-index futures declined.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 17,163.92 +455.02 +2.72%
Hang Seng 19,052.45 +191.65 +1.02%
Shanghai Composite 2,736.13 -13.65 -0.50%
FTSE 5,922.47 +11.01 +0.19%
CAC 4,351 -5.81 -0.13%
DAX 9,822.53 -0.22 0.00%
Crude oil $30.76 (-2.19%)
Gold $1118.50 (-0.15%)
(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 130 | 2.14% | 6.2K |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 11.97 | 0.93% | 30.5K |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 97.83 | 0.50% | 109.0K |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 4.22 | 0.48% | 115.6K |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 13.32 | 0.45% | 1.6K |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 120.77 | 0.28% | 3.2K |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 53.46 | 0.00% | 18.5K |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 55.9 | -0.02% | 0.3K |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 40.49 | -0.02% | 5.8K |
Visa | V | 71.85 | -0.04% | 0.4K |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 17 | -0.06% | 232.1K |
Intel Corp | INTC | 29.9 | -0.13% | 70.3K |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 57 | -0.14% | 0.2K |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 78.6 | -0.27% | 4.3K |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 52 | -0.33% | 7.1K |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 30.57 | -0.33% | 0.4K |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 95.95 | -0.33% | 10.8K |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 599.04 | -0.37% | 8.1K |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 58.92 | -0.41% | 1.1K |
American Express Co | AXP | 54.86 | -0.42% | 0.2K |
General Electric Co | GE | 28.19 | -0.42% | 2.3K |
Nike | NKE | 60.85 | -0.43% | 0.4K |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 709.71 | -0.47% | 1K |
Yahoo! Inc., NASDAQ | YHOO | 29.83 | -0.50% | 0.7K |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 23.6 | -0.51% | 4.8K |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 7.1 | -0.56% | 3.0K |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 153.5 | -0.62% | 0.1K |
Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE | ABX | 9.47 | -0.63% | 16.3K |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 100.49 | -0.68% | 2.6K |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 58.56 | -0.68% | 0.1K |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 47.91 | -0.70% | 8.4K |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 83.5 | -0.74% | 1.1K |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 192.03 | -0.79% | 11.5K |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 58.11 | -0.85% | 30.5K |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 84.8 | -0.99% | 8.7K |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 75.85 | -1.11% | 45.5K |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 50.72 | -1.42% | 1.6K |
AT&T Inc | T | 34.55 | -2.40% | 460.0K |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 96.87 | -3.12% | 1.9M |
Boeing Co | BA | 120.25 | -6.06% | 259.4K |
Westpac Bank released the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading economic index for Australia on late Tuesday evening. The leading economic index decreased 0.3% in December, after a 0.3% drop in November. November's figure was revised down from a 0.2% fall.
"This is another disappointing result. The Index has now been growing below trend for the last eight months. It continues to signal that growth in the Australian economy in the first half of 2016 will be below trend," Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans, said.
Upgrades:
McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Buy at Argus; target $140
Downgrades:
Other:
Apple (AAPL) target lowered to $172 from $179 at Piper Jaffray
Apple (AAPL) target lowered to $130 from $150 at FBR Capital
Apple (AAPL) target lowered to $120 from $140 at Stifel
DuPont (DD) resumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
USD/JPY 117.35 (USD 400m) 118.00 (225m)
EUR/USD 1.0700 (EUR 1.5bln) 1.0750 (EUR 402m) 1.0800 (2.3bln) 1.0850-55 (660m)
AUD/USD 0.6950 (AUD 501m)
AUD/NZD 1.1000 (AUD 1.5bln)
AUD/JPY 84.25 (AUD 332m)
EUR/JPY 129.50 (EUR 229m)
Boeing reported Q4 FY 2015 earnings of $1.60 per share (versus $2.31 in Q4 FY 2014), beating analysts' consensus of $1.27.
The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $23.573 bln (-3.7% y/y), in line with consensus estimate of $23.553 bln.
Boeing issued downside guidance for FY 2016, projecting EPS of $8.15-8.35 (versus analysts' consensus of $9.41) and revenues of $93-95 bln (versus analysts' consensus of $97.26 bln).
Economic calendar (GMT0):
(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)
00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter IV 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter IV 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Quarter IV 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI y/y Quarter IV 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January 4.5% 4.7% 4.4%
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey February 9.4 9.3 9.4
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December 1.55 Revised From 1.66 1.62
07:45 France Consumer confidence January 96 96 97
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals December 44.53 Revised From 45 45.5 43.98
12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 9% 8.8%
The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting results later in the day. Analysts expect the Fed to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
New home sales in the U.S. are expected to rise to 500,000 units in December from 490,000 units in November.
The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar after the release of the better-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone. Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 9.4 in February, beating expectations for a drop to 9.3.
"The consumer climate has therefore been able to withstand the recent growth in risks it is facing. However, in the next few months the escalating terror threat and the rising fears among certain groups of the population that Germany could eventually become overstretched by the persistently high influx of refugees and asylum seekers may cause consumer confidence to wane in the long term. In turn, this would have a lasting impact on the consumer climate," Gfk noted.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Wednesday. French consumer confidence index rose to 97 in January from 96 in December. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 96.
The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the U.K. economic data. The British Bankers' Association (BBA) released the number of mortgage approvals in the U.K. on Wednesday. The number of mortgage approvals decreased to 43,975 in December from 44,533 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 45,500. November's figure was revised up from 45,437.
"Last year was a strong year for household borrowing. There was a 6% rise in mortgage borrowing compared to 2014 and consumer credit expanded at more than 5% annually within an overall unsecured market which is growing at nearly 10% annually," the chief economist at the BBA, Richard Woolhouse, said.
The Nationwide Building Society released its house prices data for the U.K. on Wednesday. UK house prices were up 0.3% in January, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise, after a 0.8% increase in December.
On a yearly basis, house prices fell to 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December. Analysts had expected house prices to rise by 4.7%.
"As we look ahead, the risks are skewed towards a modest acceleration in house price growth, at least at the national level, Robert Gardner, said.
The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. UBS released its consumption index for Switzerland on Wednesday. The UBS consumption index increased to 1.62 in December from 1.55 in November. November's figure was revised down from 1.66.
The bank expect the consumption to rise.
"Consumer sentiment will likely start the year strong despite a seasonal increase in the unemployment rate in December. As low interest rates provide little incentive to save, people tend to consume more," the bank said.
EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.0897
GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed
USD/JPY: the currency pair increased to Y118.42
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
15:00 U.S. New Home Sales December 490 500
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 3.979 3.3
19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5%
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln December -779 -131
23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y December -1.0% -0.1%
EUR/USD
Offers 1.0880-85 1.0900 1.0925 1.0945-50 1.0985 1.1000 1.1025 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100
Bids 1.0850 1.0830 1.0800 1.0780-85 1.0765 1.0750 1.0730 1.0700 1.0680 1.0650
GBP/USD
Offers 1.4355-60 1.4380 1.4400 1.4425-30 1.4450 1.4475 1.4500
Bids 1.4300 1.4280 1.4250 1.4230 1.4200 1.4170-75 1.4150
EUR/GBP
Offers 0.7600 0.7625-30 0.7650 0.7680 0.7700 0.7720-25 0.7750-55
Bids 0.7575 0.7560 0.7530 0.7500 0.7485 0.7450 0.7425 0.7400
EUR/JPY
Offers 128.80 129.00 129.30 129.50 129.75 130.00 130.30 130.50
Bids 128.25 128.00 127.80 127.50 127.30 127.00 126.80 126.50
USD/JPY
Offers 118.50 118.60 118.85 119.00 119.30 119.50 119.75 120.00
Bids 118.00 117.85 117.70 117.50 117.30 117.00 116.75-80 116.50 116.30 116.00
AUD/USD
Offers 0.7050-55 0.7080 0.7100 0.7130 0.7150 0.7180 0.7200
Bids 0.7020 0.7000 0.6980 0.6950 0.6920 0.6900 0.6875-80 0.6850
United Tech reported Q4 FY 2015 earnings of $1.53 per share (versus $1.67 in Q4 FY 2014), beating analysts' consensus of $1.52.
The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $14.300 bln (-4.5% y/y), missing consensus estimate of $15.257 bln.
United Tech reaffirmed guidance for FY 2016, projecting EPS of $6.30-6.60 (versus analysts' consensus of $6.55) and revenues of $56-58 bln (versus analysts' consensus of $57.85 bln).
UTX rose to $85.65 (+0.88%) in in yesterday's trading.
Stock indices traded lower ahead of the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting results later in the day. Analysts expect the Fed to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
Meanwhile, the economic data from the Eurozone was better than expected. Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 9.4 in February, beating expectations for a drop to 9.3.
"The consumer climate has therefore been able to withstand the recent growth in risks it is facing. However, in the next few months the escalating terror threat and the rising fears among certain groups of the population that Germany could eventually become overstretched by the persistently high influx of refugees and asylum seekers may cause consumer confidence to wane in the long term. In turn, this would have a lasting impact on the consumer climate," Gfk noted.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Wednesday. French consumer confidence index rose to 97 in January from 96 in December. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 96.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) released the number of mortgage approvals in the U.K. on Wednesday. The number of mortgage approvals decreased to 43,975 in December from 44,533 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 45,500. November's figure was revised up from 45,437.
"Last year was a strong year for household borrowing. There was a 6% rise in mortgage borrowing compared to 2014 and consumer credit expanded at more than 5% annually within an overall unsecured market which is growing at nearly 10% annually," the chief economist at the BBA, Richard Woolhouse, said.
The Nationwide Building Society released its house prices data for the U.K. on Wednesday. UK house prices were up 0.3% in January, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise, after a 0.8% increase in December.
On a yearly basis, house prices fell to 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December. Analysts had expected house prices to rise by 4.7%.
"As we look ahead, the risks are skewed towards a modest acceleration in house price growth, at least at the national level, Robert Gardner, said.
Current figures:
Name Price Change Change %
FTSE 100 5,879.78 -31.68 -0.54 %
DAX 9,768.03 -54.72 -0.56 %
CAC 40 4,332.65 -24.16 -0.55 %
The Italian statistical office ISTAT released its consumer confidence index for Italy on Wednesday. The Italian consumer confidence index climbed to 118.9 in January from 117.7 in December. December's figure was revised up from 117.6.
The increase was driven by rises in all components: economic, personal, current and future.
The business confidence index fell to 103.2 in January from 104.0 in December. December's figure was revised down from 104.1.
The decline was driven by less favourable assessments on order books and production expectations.
UBS released its consumption index for Switzerland on Wednesday. The UBS consumption index increased to 1.62 in December from 1.55 in November. November's figure was revised down from 1.66.
The bank expect the consumption to rise.
"Consumer sentiment will likely start the year strong despite a seasonal increase in the unemployment rate in December. As low interest rates provide little incentive to save, people tend to consume more," the bank said.
The bank noted that low consumer prices were driven by low energy prices in general and crude oil in particular.
French statistical office INSEE released its consumer confidence index for France on Wednesday. French consumer confidence index rose to 97 in January from 96 in December. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 96.
The index of the outlook on consumers' saving capacity fell to -6 in January from -5 in December.
The index of households' assessment of their financial situation in the past twelve months rose to -24 in January from -25 in December.
The index of the outlook on consumers' financial situation for next twelve months decreased to -8 in January from -7 in December.
The index of the outlook on unemployment rising in coming months dropped to 34 in January from 45 in December.
The index for future inflation expectations was down to -39 in January from -38 in December.
Market research group GfK released its consumer confidence index for Germany on Wednesday. German Gfk consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 9.4 in February, beating expectations for a drop to 9.3.
2 of 3 indicators increased.
The economic expectations index rose by 1.3 points to 4.2 points in January, while the willingness to buy index increased 3.7 points to 52.7.
The income expectations index fell by 3.6 points to 47.2 in January.
"The consumer climate has therefore been able to withstand the recent growth in risks it is facing. However, in the next few months the escalating terror threat and the rising fears among certain groups of the population that Germany could eventually become overstretched by the persistently high influx of refugees and asylum seekers may cause consumer confidence to wane in the long term. In turn, this would have a lasting impact on the consumer climate," Gfk noted.
The Nationwide Building Society released its house prices data for the U.K. on Wednesday. UK house prices were up 0.3% in January, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise, after a 0.8% increase in December.
On a yearly basis, house prices fell to 4.4% in January from 4.5% in December. Analysts had expected house prices to rise by 4.7%.
"As we look ahead, the risks are skewed towards a modest acceleration in house price growth, at least at the national level, Robert Gardner, said.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) released the number of mortgage approvals in the U.K. on Wednesday. The number of mortgage approvals decreased to 43,975 in December from 44,533 in November, missing expectations for a rise to 45,500. November's figure was revised up from 45,437.
"Last year was a strong year for household borrowing. There was a 6% rise in mortgage borrowing compared to 2014 and consumer credit expanded at more than 5% annually within an overall unsecured market which is growing at nearly 10% annually," the chief economist at the BBA, Richard Woolhouse, said.
According to the survey by Thomson Reuters GFMS published on Tuesday, gold prices are expected to recover to above $1,200 an ounce by the end of the year. The average price is expected to be $1,164 an ounce in the full year.
The reason for the recovery are the slower pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes, a weak global economic growth and a weak yuan.
The survey said that gold demand is expected to rise by 5% in 2016.
USD/JPY 117.35 (USD 400m) 118.00 (225m)
EUR/USD 1.0700 (EUR 1.5bln) 1.0750 (EUR 402m) 1.0800 (2.3bln) 1.0850-55 (660m)
AUD/USD 0.6950 (AUD 501m)
AUD/NZD 1.1000 (AUD 1.5bln)
AUD/JPY 84.25 (AUD 332m)
EUR/JPY 129.50 (EUR 229m)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its consumer inflation data on Wednesday. The consumer price inflation in Australia rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations for a 0.3% gain, after a 0.5% increase in the third quarter.
The quarterly inflation was mainly driven by higher prices for alcohol and tobacco, clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture.
On a yearly basis, Australia's consumer price inflation rose to 1.7% in the fourth quarter from 1.5% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for an increase to 1.6%.
The annual inflation was mainly driven by higher prices for alcohol and tobacco, education and health care.
The trimmed mean consumer price index (CPI) (the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) main indicator of inflation) remained unchanged at 2.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.
JPMorgan & Chase Co.'s chief Asia strategist, Adrian Mowat, said on Tuesday that capital outflows from China could hit $500 billion this year. He noted that while China's central bank tries to control the yuan's fall, those holding assets denominated in the yuan could sell to avoid losses.
According to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the state-owned company, on Tuesday, oil demand in China will rise by 4.3% to 11.32 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2016, compared to 4.8% increase last year.
China's oil imports are expected to climb by 7.3% to 7.14 million bpd this year, compared to nearly 9.0% rise last year.
The CNPC said that China's commercial oil reserves totalled 315 million barrels at the end of 2015.
China is the world's second-largest oil consumer.
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.0956 (4198)
$1.0929 (1747)
$1.0893 (1492)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0864
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0827 (1196)
$1.0786 (3853)
$1.0757 (9496)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 40979 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (4997);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 64261 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0800 (9496);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.57 versus 1.56 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 26
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.4602 (1840)
$1.4504 (1887)
$1.4408 (970)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.4329
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.4293 (1062)
$1.4196 (1187)
$1.4098 (975)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 24344 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4700 (3101);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 22496 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4550 (2010);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 26
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Economic calendar (GMT0):
Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual
00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter IV 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter IV 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Quarter IV 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI y/y Quarter IV 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January 4.5% 4.7% 4.4%
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey February 9.4 9.3 9.4
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December 1.66 1.62
The Australian dollar rose against the greenback amid domestic consumer price data. A report showed that inflation rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter after a 0.5% rise in the third quarter. Economists had expected the consumer price index to grow by 0.3%. The CPI rose by 1.7% on a y/y basis in Q4, while economists had expected a 1.6% increase. Higher inflation suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to cut interest rates any time soon. Petrol prices fell by 5.7%, however prices for tobacco gained 7.4%, while prices for domestic holiday and accommodation rose by 5.9%.
The euro traded range-bound ahead of euro zone inflation data scheduled for this week. Consumer prices are expected to have risen by 0.4% y/y in January after a 0.2% increase in December. Higher inflation would relief ECB policymakers, because they had to use unconventional tools to make inflation grow towards the target level of just under 2%.
France, Spain and Belgium will release their fourth quarter GDP reports. These data will help market participants assess strength of the euro zone economy.
EUR/USD: the pair fluctuated within $1.0850-70 in Asian trade
USD/JPY: the pair fell to Y118.00
GBP/USD: the pair traded within $1.4330-50
The most important news that are expected (GMT0):
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
07:45 France Consumer confidence January 96 96
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals December 45 45.5
12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 9%
15:00 U.S. New Home Sales December 490 500
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 3.979 3.3
19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5%
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln December -779 -131
23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y December -1.0% -0.1%
West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery declined to $31.07 (-1.21%), while Brent crude declined to $31.61 (-0.60%) erasing some of yesterday's gains amid profit-taking.
There are talks about a possibility of a deal between oil producers in an attempt to stop price declines. However analysts say that any deal of that kind is unlikely.
The World Bank cut its crude price forecast for 2016 to $37 a barrel from $51 per barrel forecasted earlier. John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank, said: "Low prices for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time. While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next two years, significant downside risks remain."
Gold steadied close to a twelve-week high at $1,120.70 (+0.04%) ahead of the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. No changes are expected this time. Expectations for a rate hike in March have also declined recently. Economists surveyed by Reuters now expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year rather than four. The central bank of the U.S. needs to consider struggling global economy. Higher interest rates are unfavorable for the non-interest-paying precious metal, that's why a decision to postpone a rate hike would be welcomed by gold investors.
Data showed that China's gold imports rose as investors avoided falling stocks.
U.S. stock indices closed higher on Tuesday as stocks continued tracking oil prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 282 points, or 1.8%, to 17,167. The S&P 500 rose 26.55 points, or 1.4%, to 1,903 (all of its 10 sectors rose). The Nasdaq Composite rose 49.2 points, or 1.1%, to 4,567.
The S&P's energy sector gained 3.8%, but it's still down 7.8% for the year.
Activity in the services sector of the U.S. economy has slowed its growth at the beginning of the year. A preliminary report by Markit Economics reflected this change. The Services PMI declined to 53.7 in January from 54.3 in December marking the slowest expansion since December 2014, although it still suggests growth.
This morning in Asia Hong Kong Hang Seng rose 0.88%, or 166.31, to 19,027.11. China Shanghai Composite Index plunged 2.56%, or 70.36, to 2,679.43. The Nikkei jumped 2.93%, or 490.36, to 17,199.26.
Asian stock indices traded mixed. Japanese stocks rose on expectations of BOJ's monetary policy easing.
Chinese stocks climbed at the beginning of the session, but dropped sharply later on. Investors are cautious ahead of the end of the Fed meeting.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 30.51 -2.99%
Gold 1,119.90 -0.03%
(index / closing price / change items /% change)
Nikkei 225 16,708.9 -402.01 -2.35%
Hang Seng 18,860.8 -479.34 -2.48%
Shanghai Composite 2,751.03 -187.49 -6.38%
FTSE 100 5,911.46 +34.46 +0.59%
CAC 40 4,356.81 +45.48 +1.05%
Xetra DAX 9,822.75 +86.60 +0.89%
S&P 500 1,903.63 +26.55 +1.41%
NASDAQ Composite 4,567.67 +49.18 +1.09%
Dow Jones 16,167.23 +282.01 +1.78%
(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,0869 +0,19%
GBP/USD $1,4348 +0,70%
USD/CHF Chf1,0165 +0,38%
USD/JPY Y118,41 +0,11%
EUR/JPY Y128,71 +0,31%
GBP/JPY Y169,9 +0,82%
AUD/USD $0,7003 +0,71%
NZD/USD $0,6497 +0,68%
USD/CAD C$1,4116 -1,23%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter IV 0.5% 0.3%
00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter IV 1.5% 1.6%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Quarter IV 0.3% 0.5%
00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI y/y Quarter IV 2.1% 2.1%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index January 0.8% 0.6%
07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y January 4.5% 4.7%
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey February 9.4 9.3
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December 1.66
07:45 France Consumer confidence January 96 96
09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals December 45 45.5
12:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications January 9%
15:00 U.S. New Home Sales December 490 500
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 3.979 3.5
19:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
19:00 U.S. FOMC Statement
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5%
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln December -779 -130
23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y December -1.0% -0.1%