Oil prices are rising for the third consecutive session, while establishing new highs in 2016. Support for oil have oil supply disruptions in Nigeria, as well as statistics on US petroleum inventories.
Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude stocks in the previous week fell by 3,560 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decrease of 3.5 million barrels. Oil reserves in the country's largest terminal in Cushing fell by 1.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories thus rose by 0.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks - by 0.270 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy today announced that during the week 28 May - 3 June oil stocks fell by 3.2 million barrels to 532.5 million barrels. Experts predicted a decline of 2.7 million. Barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal fell by 1.4 million barrels to 65.6 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 1 million barrels to 239.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected stocks will fall 500,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels to 151.4 million barrels. Analysts had forecast a drop to 300,000 barrels. The utilization of refining capacity increased by 1.1% to 90.9%. Analysts suggested that the figure will rise to 0.6%. Meanwhile, oil production in the US rose to 8.745 million barrels per day versus 8.735 million barrels per day in the previous week
Increase in oil prices also contribute to the data, which showed that China imported crude oil by the end of May rose to its highest level in more than six years. Against this background, increased hopes that energy demand in China is beginning to stabilize.
Another rise in oil prices factor is the weakening of the dollar against a background of reducing the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates in the near future. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 2% in June. The chances of an increase in rates are estimated at 25% in July.
Also today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said he expects growth in oil prices. "We expect that oil prices will rise. By the end of this year and in 2017 we will see a greater restoring the balance in the oil market, "- said the head of the IEA's Fatih Birol.
WTI for delivery in July rose to $50.86 a barrel. Brent for July rose to $52.16 a barrel.
Gold prices rose nearly $ 20, approaching to three-week high, helped by the weakening of the US dollar against the backdrop of reducing the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the near future.
In recent days, investors have revised their predictions on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates after Friday published a weak report on the US labor market. The recent speech of Fed Yellen also confirmed the central bank's intention to postpone the rate hike as long as the uncertainty about the economic outlook does not shatter. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 2% in June. Meanwhile, the chances increase rate estimated at 25% in July. Recall, the higher interest rates in the US have a negative impact on the price of gold, since lead to a stronger dollar, which trades precious metals. This makes the purchase of gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, the gradual increase in rates carries less of a threat to the gold price than a series of sharp climbs.
"We know that the Fed wants to continue the normalization of monetary policy, but they will not do it if the economy really slows down, - said an analyst at Macquarie Matthew Turner -. Thus, we are again dependent on the following data on non-farm payrolls which, however, will be released only after four weeks. " Turner expects that at its June meeting, the Fed will repeat the recent statements by Yellen, which largely gave an optimistic outlook for the US economy, but did not specify whether the Fed will raise interest rates during the summer months. "Increased nervousness due to proximity of the referendum in the UK can also support the price of gold over the next few weeks - said Turner Macquarie precious metal, which has fallen more than 6 percent in May, rose nearly 2.7 percent since the beginning of the current. month due to lower expectations of Fed rate increase.
Meanwhile, the World Bank's decision to lower the outlook for world economic growth in the 2016 - 2017 year may also force the Fed to postpone the rate hike at a later time. Recall now the World Bank has downgraded its forecast for global GDP growth in 2016 (0.5% to 2.4%) and 2017 (0.3% to 2.8%). "World Bank lowers its forecast for global growth due to sluggish growth in developed economies, lower commodity prices, weaker international trade and movement of capital reduction," - said in the June survey. The outlook on the Chinese economy remained stable in India is projected sustained growth, but has been downgraded forecast for the developed Western economies.
The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX rose to $ 1261.9 per ounce.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its crude oil inventories data on Thursday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 532.5 million in the week to June 03.
Analysts had expected U.S. crude oil inventories to decline by 2.7 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1.01 million barrels, according to the EIA.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, slid by 1.36 million barrels.
U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 134,000 barrels per day.
Refineries in the U.S. were running at 90.9% of capacity, up from 89.8% the previous week.
Oil production rose to 8.745 million barrels a day last week from 8.735 million barrels a day in the previous week.
The Chinese Customs Office released its trade data on Wednesday. China's trade surplus climbed to $49.9 billion in May from $45.56 billion in April, missing expectations for a rise to a surplus of $58.00 billion.
Exports fell at an annual rate of 4.1% in May, while imports declined at an annual rate of 0.4%.
(raw materials / closing price /% change)
Oil 50.43 +0.14%
Gold 1,246.20 -0.06%