Prices of oil futures have fallen today, as traders decided to take profits after a three-day rise and achieve highs in 2016 due to lower crude oil stocks in the US and other supply disruptions. Increased US dollar also put pressure on the price of oil.

The market also continued to win back yesterday's data on US petroleum reserves, which exceeded forecasts. Recall, the US Department of Energy said that during the week 28 May - 3 June crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 532.5 million barrels. Experts predicted a decline of 2.7 million. Barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal fell by 1.4 million barrels to 65.6 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 1 million barrels to 239.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected stocks will fall 500,000 barrels. The utilization of refining capacity increased by 1.1% to 90.9%. Analysts suggested that the figure will rise to 0.6%. Meanwhile, oil production in the US rose to 8.745 million barrels per day versus 8.735 million barrels per day in the previous week.

Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy raised its forecast for oil prices for 2016. According to the EIA, the average crude oil price of WTI in 2016 will amount to $ 42.83 per barrel, Brent - $ 43,03 per barrel. In May, the average price of WTI this year is expected to reach $ 40.32 per barrel, Brent - $ 40,52 per barrel. In 2017, according to the EIA forecast, the average price of a WTI oil and Brent will be $ 51.82 per barrel.

Since the beginning of 2016 the price of oil WTI and Brent has risen by more than 80% of the multi-year lows reached earlier, as the decline in production and supply disruptions have increased hopes that an excess of oil supply, is finally starting to subside.

Investors' attention is also switched to the Fed meeting. Experts expect that the Fed next week will keep rates unchanged, and many continue to believe that in July, rates will remain at the same level. Fed futures rates suggest that the probability of a rate hike in June was 4%, and the chances of an increase in rates are estimated at 24% in July. Recall increase in interest rates would strengthen the dollar and will put pressure on commodities such as oil.

WTI for delivery in July fell to $50.76 a barrel. Brent for July fell to $52.09 a barrel.

Quotes of gold rose modestly today, updating the three-week high. Support for the precious metal has the prospect of saving the Fed interest rates. USA. A further increase in the prices was held back widespread strengthening of the American currency.

The results of the latest poll The Wall Street Journal revealed that the deterioration in the labor market is likely to cause the Fed to refrain from raising rates at the June meeting. Previously, many economists expect the Central Bank to raise rates in June, but now 52% of respondents believe that the Fed will postpone the decision until July. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents believe that rates will remain unchanged until September. In addition to the slowdown of the labor market, many economists are concerned about how the UK will affect the potential output of the EU to the US economy.

Recall, the higher interest rates in the US have a negative impact on the price of gold, since lead to a stronger dollar, which trades precious metals. This makes the purchase of gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 4% in June. Meanwhile, the chances increase rate estimated at 24% in July.

"Gold is supported, as many experts today believe that the Fed may not increase rates this summer - said Naeem Aslam, an analyst ThinkForex -. Nevertheless, markets remain cautious about Fed policy."

A slight effect on gold also provided statistics on the US. The Labor Department reported that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that layoffs remain under control, despite the recent slowdown in hiring. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 and reached a seasonally adjusted 264,000 in the week ending 4 June. Economists had expected 270,000 initial claims. Applications for the week ended May 28 were revised to an increase by 1000 to 268 000. The Labor Department said that no special factors did not affect the index last week. The moving average of four weeks, which helps to smooth out fluctuations in the data, fell by 7,500 last week to 269 500. Applications are below 300 000 for 66 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 1973. The report also showed that repeated requests for unemployment benefits fell by 77,000 to 2.095 million in the week ended May 28th.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX rose to $ 1271.0 per ounce.

The U.S. Labor Department released its jobless claims figures on Thursday. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 04 in the U.S. decreased by 4,000 to 264,000 from 268,000 in the previous week. The previous week's figure was revised up from 267,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise to 270,000.

Jobless claims remained below 300,000 the 66th straight week. This threshold is associated with the strengthening of the labour market.

Continuing jobless claims declined by 77,000 to 2,095,000 in the week ended May 28. It was the lowest level since October 2000.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) upgraded its oil price forecasts on Tuesday. The agency expects WTI crude price to be $42.83 a barrel in 2016, up from a previous estimate of $40.32, and $51.82 a barrel in 2017. Brent crude price is expected to be $43.03 a barrel in 2016, up from a previous estimate of $40.52, and $51.82 a barrel in 2017.

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released its consumer and producer price inflation data for China on Thursday. The Chinese consumer price index (CPI) rose at annual rate of 2.0% in May, missing expectations for a 2.3% increase, after a 2.3% gain in April.

Food prices rose at an annual rate of 5.9% in May, while non-food prices increased 1.1%.

On a monthly basis, consumer price inflation decreased 0.5% in May, after a 0.2% fall in April.

The Chinese producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.8% in May, beating expectations for a 3.3% fall, after a 3.4% decline in April.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 51.53 +0.59%

Gold 1,265.50 +0.25%