The cost of oil futures rose modestly today, supported by optimistic report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as the weakening of the US currency. However, analysts warn that the market is still a large surplus of oil.

Recall now the IEA raised its forecast for oil demand in the world in 2016 to 95.8 million barrels per day. The pace of oil demand growth this year will remain at 1.2 million b / d. At the same time the IEA believes that the freezing of the main producers of oil in the level of January will not give rapid effect to stabilize the market. "Factors that are supporting prices include possible actions for production stabilization of oil producers, reducing production in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates, signs of declining production outside OPEC, maintaining expectations about the pace of global oil demand growth and weakening of the US dollar" - said the agency review.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs experts said that they had seen the signs began to restore the balance of supply and demand on the oil market. Against this background, the bank raised its forecast for oil prices in the II quarter of 2016 from US $ 20-40 per barrel to $ 25-45 per barrel. According to forecasts of Goldman Sachs analysts, the average price of oil in the 2 nd quarter could reach $ 35 per barrel. And in the 3rd and 4th quarters of the average price of "black gold" can reach a level of $ 40 per barrel. Interruptions in the supply of a number of countries, non-OPEC countries will help to reduce the excess supply of oil on the world market, says Goldman Sachs. Oil prices, which had previously reached 12-year lows, recover, according to the bank's analysts.

Another reason for price increases, according to traders, it is of interest to the oil market on the part of investment funds. "The funds have come to play on the increase, and the market seems to be going to stay above $ 40," - said the broker Liquidity Energy in New York, Pete Donovan.

Investors also await the publication of weekly data on the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes, which will indicate the prospects for deals in the US energy market. For the week of 20 to 26 February rig count fell by eight to 392, dropping the eleventh week in a row. Now the figure is at its lowest level since December 4, 2009.

WTI for delivery in April rose to $38.59 a barrel. Brent for April rose to $40.42 a barrel.

The value of gold has fallen significantly, retreating from a 13-month high, driven by increased risk appetite on the background stock indexes and oil growth. In the course of trading and continue to influence the outcome of yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank.

Recall, according to the results of the March meeting of the ECB will increase its asset purchase program and three lowered interest rates. However, the head of the Central Bank Draghi stated that he sees no need for a further reduction in interest rates. In general, market participants interpreted the statement as a hint that the ECB has a limited number of instruments of monetary policy.

Yesterday the price of the precious metal rose by 1.5 percent, registering the biggest gain in a week session. Since the beginning of the year gold increased in price by about 20 percent, mainly due to an increase in demand for safe-haven assets after the amplification of fears of slowing global economy. The relatively weak dollar and revaluation expectations of higher interest rates the Fed also supported the growth of gold this year.

In the near future, the focus of investors will be focused on the Fed meeting, which will take place on 15-16 March. average chance of market values ​​in increasing rate 0% in March, April - 20%, in June - 46%, in July - 52%. If the Fed will leave rates unchanged next week, gold could suffer from a short-term renewal of risk appetite, an analyst at ETF Securities, Martin Arnold. "In the long term, gold is likely to remain above $ 1200, in the neighborhood of $ 1,250, while the $ 1,300 mark is a strong resistance level," - said Arnold.

In addition, it became known that the gold reserves in the largest investment fund SPDR Gold Trust rose yesterday to 25.68 million. Oz (the highest rate since August 2014).

Physical demand for gold from the largest consumer - China - slowed down this week. Demand for gold in India - the second largest consumer - as extinct on the background of the protests against the imposition of tax jewelers.

April futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to $ 1258.50 per ounce.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Friday there were signs that oil prices reached their bottom.

"There are signs that prices might have bottomed out," the agency said.

The IEA noted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) oil output declined by 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February to 32.61 million bpd due to lower output from Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia's output remained unchanged.

Non-OPEC production dropped by 90,000 bpd in February to 57.1 million bpd, while

Non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while total U.S. oil output is expected to decrease by nearly 530,000 bpd to 12.4 million bpd.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries would not meet in Moscow on March 20 as Iran did not say if it will participate or not.

Oil producers planned to discuss the freeze of the oil output. Iran did not say if it will freeze its oil output or not. The country plans to boost its oil exports after sanctions were lift off.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 38.02 +0.48%

Gold 1,273.10 +0.02%