Oil has risen moderately today, which was caused by concern over the fighting in Iraq, as well as the publication of US GDP data. Nevertheless, at the end of the month, prices fell again, fixing at this seventh consecutive monthly fall, which was not observed since 2009. Since early January Brent fell by 13%, WTI - by 15%. (the longest series of all time).

As shown by preliminary data from the US, in the 4th quarter. 2014 real GDP increased by 2.6%, not 3.3% Forecasts and slow compared with the result of the third quarter. 5.0%. A positive contribution to overall GDP made component of personal consumption, which increased by 4.3%. Favorable results showed private investment in inventories and exports. On the other hand, the pressure on the index had imports, reducing government spending and fixed investments by non-residents. GDP price index decreased by 0.3% versus + 1.4% in the previous quarter.

Oil prices are also rising on news from China: Beijing ordered the refineries of the country to keep a 15-day supply of oil. Although these regulations will come into force gradually over one to three years, many refineries will take advantage of low prices for stockpiling.

Otherwise, oil demand will remain weak, while the producers are trying to adapt to low prices, analysts predict. "Voluntary reduction in supplies to the markets of raw materials is increasingly unlikely. The fall in exchange rates and the cost of energy will allow many energy producers survive the decline in consumption," - the report says ANZ.

Investors will also evaluate new forecasts from Barclays Capital. Today, experts Barclays Capital lowered its forecast average oil price in 2015 from $ 72 to $ 44 per barrel. Moreover, now Barclays Capital analysts expect that in the II quarter of this year, oil quotes could fall to $ 40 per barrel. Recovery of oil prices, experts expect no earlier than 2016, when the average annual oil will cost about $ 60 per barrel.

March futures price for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 45.12 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of Brent rose $ 0.41 to $ 49.47 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rose markedly, breaking the $ 1270 level, which is associated with the publication of data on the growth of the US economy, which were worse than expected.

As previously reported, the gross domestic product grew at an annual rate in the fourth quarter by 2.6%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The economy grew by 5% in the third quarter and 4.6% in the second quarter after a reduction in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected growth in the fourth quarter by 3.3%. The report reflected the uneven economic recovery. Consumers - to support the growing number of jobs and lower prices for gasoline - increased spending at the end of 2014 at the fastest pace in almost nine years. But business investment has slowed to the lowest rates, government spending fell, and export growth declined. For 2014 as a whole, GDP increased by 2.4%, only slightly better than the average growth of 2010-2013, reflecting a moderate rate compared with previous periods of growth of 2.2%. In the 1990s, the economy grew by an average of 3.4% per year.

As investors react to the words of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen that the central bank will be patient in the issue of rising interest rates. "Janet Yellen said that it will soon raise interest rates is expected. Gold and silver rebounded slightly in price," - said Nur al-Hammour, expert ADS Securities.

At the same time, some experts remain negative view of long-term prospects of gold. "We are again more pessimistic about short-term prospects of gold. With regard to the longer-term prospects for gold and silver we maintain a negative outlook due to consistent economic recovery," - says Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.

Support prices also have expectations of the launch of the ECB QE. "The most important factor for the precious metals in the coming year - a significant increase in liquidity due to the ECB, and the US economy will have all the time to improve performance to attract investors' funds. The question is whether the US is able to maintain the current growth rate, given the slow growth of wages," - said analyst Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Victor Tyanpiriya. According to him, by the end of the year gold would cost $ 1,280 per ounce.

The cost of the February gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1272.20 dollars per ounce.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are trading higher today. Brent Crude added +0.96%, currently trading at USD49.60 a barrel, approaching the important USD50 level. On January 13th Crude hit a low at USD45.19. West Texas Intermediate gained +1.06% currently quoted at USD45.00. Yesterday the cost of WTI crude oil continued to fall reaching the lowest level in six years, due to an increase in US oil inventories. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil have not changed.

The course of trade is also affected by expectations the publication of preliminary data on US economic growth in the fourth quarter. Analysts forecast the US economy expanding by 3.3%. Upbeat employment data fro the U.S. yesterday supported the oil price.

Oil prices fell by nearly 60 percent over the past six months, and both key brands of oil are currently trading below $ 50 a barrel as the worldwide supply exceeds demand in a period of low global economic growth and the OPEC refusing to cut output rates to stabilize prices. Smaller OPEC members want to cut production but the organisation, responsible for 40% of worldwide production focuses on its fight for market share.

Gold is trading slightly higher regaining some ground today after hitting 2-week lows yesterday on better-than expected U.S. Unemployment data with a decrease in unemployed people of 43,000 and the FED's FOMC statement and the outlook on a rate hike.

Later in the day a set of U.S. data including the GDP for the fourth quarter, the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be in the focus.

Inflation in the Eurozone extended its drop making the precious metal as inflation hedge less attractive.

Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as the metal is not yield-bearing. A stronger greenback also weighed on the dollar-denominated precious metal as it makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The precious metal is currently quoted at USD1,263.10, +0,55% a troy ounce. On Thursday last week gold reached a five-month high at USD1,307.40.

BLOOMBERG

VIX Calls Most Shunned Since 2012 as Volatility Ignored

(Bloomberg) -- Even with stock swings nearly doubling since 2014 and U.S. equities poised for their worst month in a year, traders aren't signaling too much concern.

Investors own about 2.4 million options betting on a rise in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, compared to about 1.6 million contracts wagering on a drop. That's around the lowest ratio of calls to puts in more than two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show, indicating traders don't anticipate an increase in market turbulence anytime soon.

Traders have abandoned options betting on jumps in the VIX since November, even as the gauge spiked at least 18 percent three times this month. Stocks' tendency to power past declines at the end of 2014 encouraged traders to shed hedges and speculative bets in VIX options they weren't profiting from, according to Todd Salamone of Schaeffer's Investment Research Inc.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/vix-calls-most-shunned-since-2012-as-volatility-ignored

REUTERS

BOJ set to watch and wait as Abe team urges caution on fresh easing

(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan has put monetary policy on hold and found backing for its wait-and-see stance from advisors to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who worry more easing could send the yen to damagingly low levels, according to officials in the administration and central bank.

This newfound caution from some of the same Abe advisors who urged the BOJ to launch its massive stimulus in 2013, meansJapan is set to be an outlier at a time when central banks from Canada to the euro zone to Singapore have shocked markets by easing policy in recent days.

Concerns about the yen, along with a belief among central bank officials - including Governor Haruhiko Kuroda - that coming wage increases will support higher prices, suggest the BOJ could hold policy steady until October, months after many economists expect it to be eased.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/30/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSKBN0L30AA20150130

REUTERS

Lower gas prices seen fueling U.S. consumer spending in fourth quarter

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely grew at a brisk clip in the fourth quarter as lower gasoline prices buoyed consumer spending, in a show of resilience despite a darkening global outlook.

Gross domestic product probably expanded at a 3 percent annual pace, according to a Reuters survey of economists. While that would be a step down from the third quarter's breakneck 5 percent rate, it would be the fifth quarter out of the last six that the economy has grown at or above a 3 percent pace.

"The consumer did the heavy lifting and I don't think there is any reason to expect that to change in the first half of this year because of the enormous tailwind from lower gasoline prices," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/30/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0L30BC20150130

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 44.55 +0.04%

Gold 1,258.70 +0.33%