The MoM change rates indicate that the inflation rate is moving towards the Fed’s target figure, which points to an end to the rate hike cycle. That said, the US real interest rate is already significantly positive if the market-based inflation expectations are used, which is bad news for Gold. 

Gold is also facing headwind from the continuing ETF selling. For the outflows to stop, the market’s remaining rate hike expectations need to disappear and give way to rate cut expectations. We expect this to happen in the fourth quarter.