Economists at Commerzbank share their ECB and Fed forecasts and their implications for the EUR/USD pair.
Because the ECB, unlike the Fed, should not cut its key rates, there is still some upside potential for EUR/USD over the next two or three quarters.
As long as inflation in the Euro area is falling, the ECB with its rates on hold appears to be a more credible inflation fighter, from which EUR/USD will probably benefit. However, this perception will be reversed, if Eurozone inflation starts to rise again in the middle of next year. EUR/USD will then tend to weaken again.