Notícias do Mercado

3 julho 2013
  • 18:00

    American focus: the euro and the pound rose

    The euro rose against the dollar ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting and against the closure of short positions in the pair. Contributed to the strengthening of the single currency weak data on activity in the U.S. service sector. The index of business activity in the U.S. service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing) in June dropped to 52.2 from 53.7 the previous month. Experts predicted an increase to 54.3 index points. The indicator above 50 indicates growth in business activity, and the value of the index below 50 points - about the decline of activity. ISM index calculates the ISM Non-Manufacturing corporations on the basis of the 62 segments of the service sector, which accounts for about 90% of the U.S. economy.

    Earlier, the euro fell against the dollar under the influence of weak PMI data in the service sector in the eurozone. Only Spain and France was able to make positive note in today's report services PMI, but the Germany and the euro area as a whole disappointed investors. As the results of the final studies, which were presented to Markit Economics, the results of last month to reduce activity in the private sector of the euro area has slowed down, which was associated with a slower decline in employment and the number of new orders. According to the report, the composite output index, that measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, rose in June to a level of 48.7, up from 47.7 in May. However, despite this significant improvement, the latter figure, after all, was slightly below the pre-assessment at the level of 48.9, indicating that the rate of decline was greater than anticipated. Recall that the value of this index is below 50 suggests contraction in activity. The composite index remains below this threshold for 17 consecutive month, but recent rate of decline in business activity in the private sector were the weakest in the past 15 months. Meanwhile, the data showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose in June to the level of 48.3 from 47.2 in May, which was lower than the preliminary estimate at around 48.6.

    Also note that the recent events in Portugal and Greece have added a negative. News about the growth of bond yields in the debt markets boosted concern among traders ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. As it became known, the yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds exceeded the psychologically important level of 7% (after Monday was less than 6.5%) and continues to grow, now residing at 8%. Portugal shares lost 5.6% this morning.

    Value of the pound has increased significantly against the U.S. dollar, which has helped to publish a report on Britain. As the results of recent studies that have been presented Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, at the end of last month, the growth in the British service sector accelerated to the highest level in more than two years, which was supported by a significant increase in new orders, which was the highest since 2007. According to the report, in June, the index of business activity in the services sector climbed to 56.9 - the highest level since March 2011. Note that by the end of May, the index rose to a level of 54.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector of activity. We also add that with the last read it already was the sixth consecutive month extension. Many economists had forecast a slight drop in the index - to 54.6.

    The data also showed that the growth in the number of new orders were the highest since June 2007, which encouraged the company to increase the number of jobs. It should be noted that this growth was the highest since August 2007. Meanwhile, it was reported that the level of trust between service providers in June reached a 14-month high. Note also that the increase in purchase and selling prices accelerated during the last month. But despite the increase in selling prices inflation was moderate, and was much lower than the cost price.

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, June -10.3

  • 15:00

    U.S.: ISM Non-Manufacturing, June 52.2 (forecast 54.3)

  • 14:46

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2955, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3035, $1.3050,$1.3055

    USD/JPY Y99.50, Y100.00, Y100.20, Y100.30, Y100.40, Y100.50,Y101.00

    EUR/JPY Y131.00

    GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300

    EUR/GBP stg0.8550, stg0.8585, stg0.8600

    USD/CHF Chf0.9450, Chf0.9500, Chf0.9525, Chf0.9540, Chf0.9600

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

    EUR/SEK Sek8.7150

    AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9145, $0.9170

    NZD/USD $0.7900

    USD/CAD C$1.0550

  • 13:31

    U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, June 343 (forecast 345)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Trade balance, billions, May -0.3 (forecast -0.7)

  • 13:31

    U.S.: International trade, bln, May -45.0 (forecast -40.3)

  • 13:15

    U.S.: ADP Employment Report, June 188 (forecast 161)

  • 13:00

    European session: the British Pound has increased markedly

    Data

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m May +3.9% +1.6%

    01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May +0.2% +0.4% +0.1%

    01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.1% +2.3%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance May 0.03 0.05 0.67

    01:45 China HSBC Services PMI June 51.2 51.3

    07:50 France Services PMI (Finally) June 46.5 46.5 47.2

    07:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) June 51.3 51.3 50.4

    08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) June 48.6 48.6 48.3

    08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 54.9 54.6 56.9

    08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter II


    The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, but later was able to recover some lost positions. Note that the dynamics of trading was influenced by weak PMI data in the service sector in the eurozone. Only Spain and France was able to make positive note in today's report services PMI, but the Germany and the eurozone as a whole have disappointed investors, which helped strengthen the bearish sentiment.

    As the results of the final studies, which were presented to Markit Economics, the results of last month to reduce activity in the private sector of the euro area has slowed down, which was associated with a slower decline in employment and the number of new orders.

    According to the report, the composite output index, that measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, rose in June to a level of 48.7, up from 47.7 in May. However, despite this significant improvement, the latter figure, after all, was slightly below the pre-assessment at the level of 48.9, indicating that the rate of decline was greater than anticipated. Recall that the value of this index is below 50 suggests contraction in activity. The composite index remains below this threshold for 17 consecutive month, but recent rate of decline in business activity in the private sector were the weakest in the past 15 months. Meanwhile, the data showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose in June to the level of 48.3 from 47.2 in May, which was lower than the preliminary estimate at around 48.6.

    Also note that the recent events in Portugal and Greece have added a negative. News about the growth of bond yields in the debt markets boosted concern among traders ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. As it became known, the yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds exceeded the psychologically important level of 7% (after Monday was less than 6.5%) and continues to grow, now residing at 8%. Portugal shares lost 5.6% this morning.

    Value of the pound has increased significantly against the U.S. dollar, which has helped to publish a report on Britain. As the results of recent studies that have been presented Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, at the end of last month, the growth in the British service sector accelerated to the highest level in more than two years, which was supported by a significant increase in new orders, which was the highest since 2007.

    According to the report, in June, the index of business activity in the services sector climbed to 56.9 - the highest level since March 2011. Note that by the end of May, the index rose to a level of 54.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector of activity.

    We also add that with the last read it already was the sixth consecutive month extension. Many economists had forecast a slight drop in the index - to 54.6.

    The data also showed that the growth in the number of new orders were the highest since June 2007, which encouraged the company to increase the number of jobs. It should be noted that this growth was the highest since August 2007.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that the level of trust between service providers in June reached a 14-month high. Note also that the increase in purchase and selling prices accelerated during the last month. But despite the increase in selling prices inflation was moderate, and was much lower than the cost price.

    The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar and the euro amid renewed tension in the periphery of Europe. Purchasing Managers Index PMI become an additional catalyst. In all countries except Italy, in June was marked improvement in the service sector than in May.

    Also, the currency's expectations related to the release of U.S. data on changes in the number of employees from ADP, jobless claims and trade balance. Recall that in April, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $ 40.3 billion from $ 37.1 billion in March. In general, the trade deficit declined last year, which was associated with a slight decrease during the year of import and modest export growth. However, we do not expect that trade can make a significant contribution to overall growth. We add that the EU is mired in recession, and growth in the rest of the world is slowing down, as concerns about the economy of China is growing. Recovery of the U.S. economy also remains modest, keeping the consumer and business demand for imports at bay. Note that inbound and outbound container traffic fell by internal ports, and ISM manufacturing index for May showed that international trade has weakened during the month, especially exports.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.2921, and then recovered to $ 1.2972

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5273

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.24


    At 12:15 in the U.S. will change ADP Employment for June. At 12:30 the U.S. and Canada will publish its trade balance. In the U.S., will be released at 12:30 number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits in 14:00 - a composite index of ISM non-manufacturing activity in June, and at 14:30 - the data on stocks of crude oil from Department of Energy.

  • 12:45

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3100/10, $1.3070-80, $1.3040/50, $1.3020/25, $1.3000, $1.2985

    Bids $1.2920, $1.2905/00, $1.2885/80, $1.2860/50, $1.2830/20


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5295/305, $1.5280, $1.5250/60, $1.5249

    Bids $1.5200/190, $1.5160/50, $1.5120/10, $1.5100, $1.5080/70, $1.5010/00


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9220/25, $0.9190/00, $0.9145/50, $0.9120, $0.9100

    Bids $0.9050, $0.9035, $0.9000, $0.8950, $0.8900


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8655/60, stg0.8630/40, stg0.8615-25, stg0.8590/600

    Bids stg0.8490, stg0.8465/60, stg0.8445/40, stg0.8420


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y131.31, Y131.00, Y130.55/60, Y130.00/20, Y129.75/80

    Bids Y129.00, Y128.80, Y128.55/50, Y128.00, Y127.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y101.29/39, Y101.10/20, Y100.60, Y100.35/40, Y100.00

    Bids Y99.55/50, Y99.20, Y99.10, Y99.00, Y98.50

  • 10:30

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2955, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3035, $1.3050,$1.3055

    USD/JPY Y99.50, Y100.00, Y100.20, Y100.30, Y100.40, Y100.50,Y101.00

    GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300

    EUR/GBP stg0.8550

    USD/CHF Chf0.9450, Chf0.9500, Chf0.9525, Chf0.9540, Chf0.9600

    EUR/SEK Sek8.7150

    AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9145

    NZD/USD $0.7900

  • 10:02

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), May -0.1% (forecast -1.9%)

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), May +1.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 09:29

    United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, June 56.9 (forecast 54.6)

  • 08:58

    Eurozone: Services PMI, June 48.3 (forecast 48.6)

  • 08:53

    Germany: Services PMI, June 50.4 (forecast 51.3)

  • 08:48

    France: Services PMI, June 47.2 (forecast 46.5)

  • 07:24

    Asian session: The Dollar Index rose

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m May +3.9% +1.6%

    01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May +0.2% +0.4% +0.1%

    01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.1% +2.3%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance May 0.03 0.05 0.67

    01:45 China HSBC Services PMI June 51.2 51.3


    The Dollar Index rose to the highest level in a month before a report forecast to show companies in the U.S. added more jobs in June. Companies in the U.S. added 160,000 workers last month after increasing positions by 135,000 in May, analysts in a Bloomberg poll predicted before a report today by the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute.

    The dollar traded near the strongest in a month versus the euro before data that may show service industries expanded at the fastest pace since March. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index climbed to 54 last month from 53.7 in May, a report from the Tempe, Arizona-based group is predicted to show today, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the industries that make up almost 90 percent of the economy.

    New York Fed President William C. Dudley said yesterday economic growth will probably quicken in 2014, possibly warranting a reduction in the central bank's bond-purchase program, which currently stands at $85 billion a month.

    Europe's shared currency weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts before the European Central Bank meets tomorrow. The ECB will keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.5 percent on July 4, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. Policy "will stay accommodative for the foreseeable future," President Mario Draghi said in Paris on June 26.

    Australia's currency declined to its lowest in more than two years after RBA Governor Stevens said the downward phase of the resource investment boom in his country "appears likely to pose significant challenges."


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2965/85

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5140/60

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range Y100.45/85


    There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with some US data releases pushed forward by 24 hours ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Thursday. The European calendar gets underway with a string of service sector survey data, starting at 0713GMT with the release of the Spanish June service sector PMI numbers. At 0730GMT, Sweden's Riksbank releases the June Monetary Policy Report. More service sector PMI numbers come through at 0743GMT when Italian numbers cross the wires, followed by French data at 0748GMT, German at 0753GMT and the collated EMU data at 0758GMT. Economists are looking for a tick up across the data following the slightly better than expected manufacturing numbers seen earlier in the week. There is further EMU data set for release at 0900GMT when the May retail sales data will cross the wires. EC Jose Manuel is scheduled to attend the Youth Unemployment Summit, in Berlin, from 1000GMT. Back in Europe, Buba Board member Joachim Nagel speech on internationalising the renminbi, in Frankfurt from 1240GMT. Angela Merkel will give a press conference after the European conference on youth unemployment, in Berlin from 1515GMT.

  • 06:21

    Currencies. Daily history for Jul 2'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,2982 -0,61%

    GBP/USD $1,5154 -0,42%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9504 +0,56%

    USD/JPY Y100,64 +1,02%

    EUR/JPY Y130,62 +0,39%

    GBP/JPY Y152,46 +0,58%

    AUD/USD $0,9145 -0,96%

    NZD/USD $0,7762 -0,75%

    USD/CAD C$1,0547 +0,49%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, July 3’2013:

    01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m May +3.9% +1.6%

    01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May +0.2% +0.4% +0.1%

    01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.1% +2.3%

    01:30 Australia Trade Balance May 0.03 0.05 0.67

    01:45 China HSBC Services PMI June 51.2 51.3

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y June +2.6% +3.6%

    07:50 France Services PMI June 46.5 46.5

    07:55 Germany Services PMI June 51.3 51.3

    08:00 Eurozone Services PMI June 48.6 48.6

    08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services June 54.9 54.6

    08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter II

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) May -0.5% +0.4%

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) May -1.1% -1.9%

    12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report June 135 161

    12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions May -0.6 -0.7

    12:30 U.S. International trade, bln May -40.3 -40.3

    12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims June 346 345

    14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing June 53.7 54.3

    14:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories June 0.0

3 julho 2013
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