Notícias do Mercado

5 abril 2013
  • 20:00

    U.S.: Consumer Credit , February 18.2 (forecast 15.7)

  • 19:22

    American focus: the dollar dropped to the lowest level in more than a week against the euro

    The dollar dropped to the lowest level in more than a week against the euro after U.S. employers added fewer jobs in March than forecast, fueling speculation growth in the world’s biggest economy is slowing. U.S. payrolls grew by 88,000 workers last month, the least in nine months, after a revised 268,000 gain in February that was higher than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed in Washington. The median forecast economists was for a gain of 190,000. The labor-force participation rate fell to 63.3 percent, the lowest since May 1979. The jobless rate fell to 7.6 percent, from 7.7 percent. Employers added an average of 186,500 jobs a month over the previous six months.

    The greenback fell for a third day versus the shared currency on bets the payrolls data will stiffen the Federal Reserve’s determination to keep buying bonds to spur growth. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his Federal Open Market Committee colleagues are deploying record stimulus through an open-ended expansion of the Fed balance sheet after determining that the benefits from stoking a flagging economy outweigh any risk of financial instability or higher inflation.

    The yen touched the weakest level since 2009 versus the greenback a day after the Bank of Japan outstripped forecasts and announced unprecedented economic stimulus measures. The dollar jumped as much as 3.6 percent yesterday against the yen, the most since October 2011, after the Bank of Japan said it will increase its bond purchases to 7.5 trillion yen ($73 billion) a month and double the monetary base, which includes cash in circulation, in two years. Policy makers under new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda are working to end 15 years of deflation and two decades of economic stagnation.

    Canada’s dollar fell versus most of 31 major peers after the nation unexpectedly lost the most jobs last month since 2009. Employment fell by 54,500 positions, versus a Bloomberg survey forecast for an increase of 6,500.


  • 15:00

    Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, March 61.6 (forecast 52.3)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD  $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2920, $1.2950-55, $1.3000, $1.3060

    USD/JPY Y94.00, Y95.00, Y95.50, Y96.00, Y96.50

    EUR/JPY Y123.50

    GBP/USD $1.4990, $1.5100, $1.5200

    EUR/GBP stg0.8550

    AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0510, $1.0525

    EUR/AUD A$1.2550

    USD/CAD C$1.0100, C$1.0290
  • 13:34

    U.S.: Average workweek, March 34.6 (forecast 34.5)

  • 13:33

    U.S.: Average hourly earnings , March 0.0% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:32

    U.S.: Unemployment Rate, March 7.6% (forecast 7.7%)

  • 13:32

    Canada: Unemployment rate, March 7.2% (forecast 7.0%)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Trade balance, billions, February -1.0 (forecast 0.2)

  • 13:31

    U.S.: International trade, bln, February -43.0 (forecast -44.6)

  • 13:31

    Canada: Employment , March -54.5 (forecast 7.6)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, March 88 (forecast 185)

  • 13:15

    European session: the euro fluctuates after yesterday's growth

    Data

    00:00 China Bank holiday April

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index February 95.0 97.2 97.5

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index February 91.6 91.9 92.1

    05:00    Japan BoJ monthly economic report April

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March +0.5% +0.2% +0.2%

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March +1.9% +1.1% +1.1%

    07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves March 430.0 427.0 438.3

    08:00 United Kingdom BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks April

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February -0.9% -0.3% -0.3%

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February -1.9% -1.3% -1.4%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.9% -0.9%

    10:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment

    10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -1.6% +1.2% +2.3%

    10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -2.5% -1.5% -2.9%


    The euro rose against the dollar, recovering from the minimum values ​​of the session, helped by data on retail sales in the eurozone. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales fell in February by 0.3%, compared with a revised downward from the previous month at 0.9% growth. We add that, according to the average forecast of most economists value of this index was down by 0.4%, compared with the initial estimate of 1.2% growth reported in January. Meanwhile, it was reported that the biggest monthly decline was registered in Estonia, France, Slovenia, and the largest increase was recorded in Luxembourg, Denmark and Malta. On an annual basis, sales in the retail sector declined in February at a slower rate - by 1.4%, compared with a fall of 1.9% in January, which was revised upward from 1.3%. Note that the projected annual sales would fall by 1.3%. In addition, another report showed that orders in the manufacturing sector rose in February by 2.3%, driven by significant growth in demand both within and outside the country. In addition, it was reported that the figure for January was revised down to 1.6% from 1.9% fall. Note that according to the average estimates of analysts, orders had increased by only 1.2%.

    The pound was little changed against the dollar and the euro, which is due to market participants' expectations of U.S. jobs report. In addition, the dynamics of trade affected minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England's financial policy, which showed that credit conditions in the UK have improved since November, and it is necessary to closely monitor risk appetite. The market may be too optimistic about the strength of the global economy. At the same time, they reported, it can not exclude further measures aimed at improving the stability of the banks. We also learned that the committee wants to put an end to doubts about banks' capital, and the members of the Committee on financial policies are concerned the ability of some banks to absorb losses.

    The yen fell to its lowest level since August 2009, after the publication of new incentives Bank of Japan. Recall that yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to increase the purchase of government bonds to 7 trillion yen per month, while the analysts' consensus forecast of 5.2 trillion yen. In addition, the Central Bank, which a few weeks ago led the new President Haruhiko Kuroda, a fierce supporter of active easing of monetary policy, has promised to get to the target inflation rate of 2% in two years.


    EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.2900, and then rose to $ 1.2938

    GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.5198, but later I could, and now storge at $ 1.5224

    USD / JPY: during the European session, recovered with a minimum value, rising to Y96.19


    At 12:30 GMT Canada said the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employees in March, and the trade balance for February. Also at this time in the U.S., there are data on the trade balance for February, the unemployment rate, changes in the number of employed in the agricultural sector, changing the number of employees in the private sector, and changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing sector in March, as well as the change of mean hourly wages for March. At 14:00 GMT in Canada comes from the Ivey PMI index for March.


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3048, $1.3000, $1.2970/85, $1.2950

    Bids $1.2900, $1.2870, $1.2850/40, $1.2825/20


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5315/20, $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5245-60

    Bids $1.5175/70, $1.5150/40, $1.5125/20, $1.5100


    AUD/USD

    Offers $1.0491/97, $1.0475/80, $1.0445/50

    Bids $1.0405/00, $1.0390/85, $1.0380, $1.0365/60, $1.0355/50, $1.0320


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8560/65, stg0.8545/50, stg0.8520/25, stg0.8500

    Bids stg0.8480/75, stg0.8450, stg0.8410/00


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y126.00, Y125.50, Y125.25/30, Y125.00

    Bids Y123.50, Y123.05/00, Y122.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y97.75, Y97.50, Y97.25, Y97.00, Y96.70/80

    Bids Y95.85/80, Y95.30, Y95.10/00


  • 11:00

    Germany: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM), February +2.3% (forecast +1.2%)

  • 11:00

    Germany: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY), February -2.9% (forecast -1.5%)

  • 10:19

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD  $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2900, $1.2920, $1.2950-55, $1.3000, $1.3060

    USD/JPY Y94.00, Y95.00, Y95.50, Y96.00, Y96.50

    EUR/JPY Y123.50

    GBP/USD $1.4990, $1.5100, $1.5200

    EUR/GBP stg0.8550

    AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0510, $1.0525

    EUR/AUD A$1.2550

    USD/CAD C$1.0100, C$1.0290
  • 10:02

    Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), Quarter IV -0.6% (forecast -0.6%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), February -0.3% (forecast -0.3%)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), February -1.4% (forecast -1.3%)

  • 08:01

    Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, March 438.3 (forecast 427.0)

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom: Halifax house price index, March +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 08:01

    United Kingdom: Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y, March +1.1% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 07:02

    Asian session: The yen fell

    00:00 China Bank holiday April

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index February 95.0 97.2 97.5

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index February 91.6 91.9 92.1

    05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report April


    The yen fell to its weakest since August 2009 as investors speculated the Bank of Japan’s 7.5 trillion yen ($77.4 billion) of monthly bond purchases will devalue the currency. Traders yesterday sold the yen after the BOJ’s bond-buying program beat the median 5.2 trillion yen estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. BOJ officials also temporarily suspended a cap on some bond holdings and dropped a limit on debt maturities at the two-day meeting, the first to be led by Kuroda since he took office last month.

    The yen’s drop may become like an “avalanche,” billionaire investor George Soros said after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda yesterday exceeded analysts’ estimates in announcing stimulus measures to spur annual inflation to 2 percent in two years. Soros said Japan’s policies are “really quite dangerous” because if people realize the yen’s sharp slide is liable to continue and want to put money abroad, that could create an “avalanche,” speaking today in an interview on CNBC. “Japan was dying a slow death for 25 years and woke up.”

    The dollar headed for weekly losses against most major counterparts before a report forecast to show U.S. job growth slowed last month. A report from the U.S. Labor Department today may show employers added 190,000 workers to payrolls in March following a 236,000 gain the month before, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate is projected to hold at 7.7 percent, matching February’s four-year low.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2920-35.

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.5215-40.

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y97.20.


    EZ retail sales due for release at 0900GMT and Germany factory orders at 1000GMT and could provide some morning interest but this will be overshadowed by this afternoon's US employment report. BOE Spencer Dale due to speak at 0800GMT, followed by the release at 0830GMT of BOE Financial Policy committee Minutes, provides the morning's domestic interest but this will be overshadowed by this afternoon's release of key US jobs data.


  • 06:30

    Currencies. Daily history for Apr 4'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,2932 +0,69%

    GBP/USD $1,5228 +0,64%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9396 -0,60%

    USD/JPY Y96,36 +3,41%

    EUR/JPY Y124,60 +4,07%

    GBP/JPY Y146,74 +4,03%

    AUD/USD $1,0428 -0,28%

    NZD/USD $0,8417 +0,01%

    USD/CAD C$1,0127 -0,18%
  • 06:03

    Schedule for today, Friday, Apr 5’2013:

    00:00 China Bank holiday April

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index February 95.0 97.2

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index February 91.6 91.9

    05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report April

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index March +0.5% +0.2%

    07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y March +1.9% +1.1%

    07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves March 427.7 427.0

    08:00 United Kingdom BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks April

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) February +1.2% -0.3%

    09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) February -1.3% -1.3%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.6% -0.6%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV -0.9%

    10:00 Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment

    10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) February -1.9% +1.2%

    10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) February -2.5% -1.5%

    12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions February -0.2 0.2

    12:30 Canada Unemployment rate March 7.0% 7.0%

    12:30 Canada Employment March 50.7 7.6

    12:30 U.S. Average workweek March 34.5 34.5

    12:30 U.S. International trade, bln February -44.5 -44.6

    12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings March +0.2% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate March 7.7% 7.7%

    12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls March 236 185

    14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index March 51.1 52.3

    19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit February 16.2 15.7
  • 06:02

    Japan: Leading Economic Index , February 97.5 (forecast 97.2)

  • 06:02

    Japan: Coincident Index, February 92.1 (forecast 91.9)

5 abril 2013
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