The yen weakened, reaching with 99 yen per dollar, which was the first time since May 2009, on speculation that measures to combat deflation, the Bank of Japan announced last week, will further currency depreciation. Recall that on 4 April the Bank of Japan decided to increase the purchase of government bonds to 7.5 trillion yen per month, while the analysts' consensus forecast of 5.2 trillion yen. In addition, the Central Bank, which a few weeks ago, headed by new chairman Haruhiko Kuroda, furious supporters of active easing of monetary policy, has promised to get to the target inflation rate of 2% in two years.
The dollar weakened against the euro, as many market participants are awaiting speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, to be held tonight. Note that the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed will be held from April 30 to May 1. Recall that at this point the Fed buys U.S. monthly securities backed by mortgage loans, amounting to $ 40 billion, as well as long-term U.S. Treasury bonds in the amount of 45 billion dollars. These and other measures designed to support the mortgage market and improve financial conditions in the economy as a whole. While Bernanke noted that the time to abandon the current practice has not come yet.
Also influenced by the dynamics of trade data, which showed that industrial production in Germany in February rose unexpectedly after a weak start to the year. This points to the fact that Europe's largest economy is slowly recovering from the recession in the 4th quarter of 2012. Industrial production in Germany in February rose by 0.5% m / m, is expected to increase by 0.4% m / m, the previous change was revised from 0.0% m / m and 0.6% m / m Compared with the same period of the previous year, industrial production in Germany fell by 1.8% adjusted for the number of working days in February 2013 compared to February 2012.
The Canadian dollar fell against most of the 16 most-traded currencies, as many market participants estimate submitted at the end of last week. Recall that the number of employed persons decreased in March by 54,500 people, which followed a growth by 50.7 million in the previous month. We add that this drop was a big surprise to many economists, because according to the average forecast of the number of employees would grow by 7.6 thousand Also, data showed that the unemployment rate rose last month to 7.2%, compared to 7 % in February, reaching a peak in November, though many expected that the value of the indicator is unchanged. Note that the March report was bleak across the board, registering with the largest decrease in the number of employees, starting in February 2009, just in time for the raging global recession.
It is learned that private sector employment fell by a whopping 85400, showing the largest monthly decline in this category since January 2009. Note also that in the public sector the number of employees decreased by 7,700 positions, and full employment fell by 54,000 in the month, which is almost all of the March decline. However, employment growth of 38,700 people self-employed in part helped offset a fall.
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3115, $1.3250
USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50
EUR/JPY Y125.50, Y127.00
AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0435
USD/CAD C$1.0185
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (QoQ) Quarter IV +7.9% -2.4%
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter IV +2.2% +1.7%
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence April -10.6 -12.6 -17.3
10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) February -0.6% +0.4% +0.5%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) February -2.6% -0.9% -1.8%
The yen weakened beyond 99 per dollar for the first time since May 2009 on speculation Bank of Japan measures to fight deflation announced last week will further debase the currency. The yen dropped against all its 16 major counterparts for a third day after BOJ officials said last week they will boost monthly bond purchases to 7.5 trillion yen ($76 billion), exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen forecast by economists. The BOJ on April 4 also suspended a cap on some bond holdings and dropped a limit on debt maturities. Policy makers set a two-year horizon for their goal of 2 percent inflation. The central bank’s next policy meeting is on April 26.
The yen pared declines earlier today after the Finance Ministry said Japan’s current-account surplus, the widest measure of trade, was larger than economists forecast.
The surplus was 637.4 billion yen in February compared with the median economist estimate of 457.5 billion yen in a survey. The current account was in deficit for three months through January
The dollar declined for a fourth day versus the euro before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks today. Demand for the dollar was limited before Bernanke speaks at the Fed Bank of Atlanta 2013 Financial Markets Conference today. The U.S. central bank’s next policy meeting is April 30-May 1. The Fed is buying $85 billion of bonds a month in the third round of its quantitative-easing strategy to spur the economy. While policy makers reiterated after their March meeting the U.S. central bank will maintain its purchases until there’s significant improvement in the labor market, Bernanke told reporters the pace may be altered if warranted by a healing economy.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.2968, after which rose to $ 1.3037
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5292
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.00
At 14:30 GMT will be released in Canada indicator of expectations in the area of credit and financial institutions, according to the Bank of Canada, and an indicator of expected growth in trade (Review of sentiment in the business environment of the Bank of Canada) for the 1st quarter. At 23:00 GMT New Zealand will publish a sentiment indicator of the business environment of the NZIER Q1. At 23:01 GMT UK launch in March. 23:15 In a speech Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. At 23:50 GMT the meeting minutes will be published on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3130, $1.3100/15, $1.3080, $1.3050, $1.3040
Bids $1.2960/50, $1.2935/30, $1.2900
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5470/80, $1.5450/55, $1.5410/15, $1.5390/400, $1.5350
Bids $1.5300, $1.5280/70, $1.5255/45, $1.5215/10, $1.5200-1.5195, $1.5160/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0500, $1.0475/80, $1.0445/50, $1.0430, $1.0395/00
Bids $1.0350/45, $1.0335, $1.0320, $1.0300, $1.0250
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8580, stg0.8560/65, stg0.8545/50, stg0.8515/25, stg0.8505
Bids stg0.8460/50, stg0.8410/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y130.50, Y130.00, Y129.50, Y129.00
Bids Y128.05/00, Y127.75/70, Y127.25, Y127.00, Y126.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y100.00, Y99.75, Y99.50, Y99.25
Bids Y98.00, Y97.50
Industrial
production increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent month-on-month in February,
reversing the 0.6 percent decrease seen in January, which was revised down from
flat. Production was forecast to grow by 0.3 percent.
Driving the
overall growth capital goods production rose 2.4 percent sequentially. Production
of intermediate goods moved up 0.3 percent, while output of consumer goods
decreased by 2.5 percent.
Year-on-year,
industrial production decreased a working-day adjusted 1.8 percent in February,
slower than the revised 2.6 percent decrease seen in January. Economists had
forecast output to fall by 0.9 percent, following the previous month's
originally reported 1.3 percent decrease.
Investor confidence in the euro area weakened for the second successive month in April, and at a significant pace, data released by the think-tank Sentix showed Monday.
The index fell to -17.3 in April from -10.6 in the prior month. The latest figure was worse-than the expected level of -12.8.
The measure of current situation fell sharply to -33.5 in April from -27.8 in March, while the expectations sub-index dropped to 0.5 from 8.3.
Data released by the Eurostat showed that Eurozone's economic sentiment deteriorated in March. The corresponding index dropped to 90 from 91.1 in the previous month. The relapse was driven by decreases in all business sectors, while consumer confidence remained broadly stable.
Germany Bubill bid-cover ratio 1.9 vs 2.0 previous auction
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3115, $1.3250
USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50
EUR/JPY Y125.50, Y127.00
AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0435
USD/CAD C$1.018501:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) March +3.0% -1.5%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current March 53.2 56.3 57.3
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March 57.7 57.5
The yen dropped to the weakest level since June 2009 as investors sold the currency amid concern Bank of Japan measures to fight deflation, announced last week, will debase the currency. BOJ officials said April 4 the central bank will increase its monthly bond purchases to 7.5 trillion yen, exceeding the 5.2 trillion yen forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. They also suspended a cap on some bond holdings and dropped a limit on debt maturities. The policy makers set a two-year horizon for their goal of 2 percent inflation.
Japan’s currency, traditionally considered a haven, fell on April 5 for a second day against the greenback even as a Labor Department report showed U.S. payrolls grew by 88,000 workers in March, the least in nine months. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a gain of 190,000.
Gains in the dollar versus the euro were limited before Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the Fed Bank of Atlanta 2013 Financial Markets Conference today. The central bank’s next policy meeting is April 30-May 1. The Fed is buying $85 billion of bonds a month in the third round of its quantitative-easing strategy to spur the economy. While policy makers reiterated after their March meeting the U.S. central bank will maintain its purchases until there’s significant improvement in the labor market, Bernanke told reporters the pace may be altered if warranted by a healing economy.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.3000.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5320-50.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y98.85.
The markets are up and running after the shortened Easter holiday weekend, although there is only limited data in Europe. Monday's session gets underway at 0900GMT when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin give a joint press conference at the Hanover industry fair. At 0930GMT, the German government gives a press conference, in Berlin. The only eurozone data set for release is expected at 1000GMT, with the release of the German February industrial output numbers. Through Monday and Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Lew is in Europe for meetings with officials. At 1200GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is slated to give a speech on strengthening EU institutions, in Mannheim.
01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) March +3.0% -1,5%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current March 53.2 56.3
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March 57.7
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (QoQ) Quarter IV +7.9%
07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter IV +2.2%
08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence April -10.6 -12.6
10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) February 0.0% +0.4%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) February -1.3% -0.9%
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Quarter I 16 20
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter I -3.4
23:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter I 20
23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y March +2.7% +1.0%
23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance March -6% -4%
23:15 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes April