Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The NMI registered 59.1 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.5 percent in May. The Employment Index decreased 0.5 percentage point in June to 53.6 percent from the May reading of 54.1 percent".

What respondents are saying:

"Tariffs, freight [issues] and labor shortages continue to have an inflationary influence on costs." (Construction)

"Positive outlook - business activity on the uptick." (Finance & Insurance)

"Shortage of IV solutions and drugs continues to be an issue." (Health Care & Social Assistance)

"Crude prices are causing concern, as it is a driver in newsprint inks. Tariffs on paper and aluminum are causing apprehension about future pricing. Suppliers are posturing and threatening price increases, and we are doing our best to reject increases." (Information)

"Trade tariffs are creating price uncertainty." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

In the week ending June 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 222,000 to 222,250.

• Such a Deal With US Only Possible in Negotiations With EU

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report.

"The labor market continues to march towards full employment," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Healthcare led job growth once again and trade rebounded nicely."

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Business' number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse. These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes."

Eurozone retail sales rose for the second successive month in June, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Retail PMI - which tracks the month-onmonth changes in retail sales in the bloc's biggest three economies combined - was little-changed from May's 51.7 at 51.8, signalling further modest growth. This followed a contraction in April, the first since March 2017.

The overall increase reflected strong growth in Germany, where monthly sales rose by the most since July 2015. In contrast, both France and Italy posted modest declines compared with May.

• Officials said almost two-thirds of those goods are made by foreign companies, including American-owned firms, in China.

The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in June 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Prices for international package holidays, fruiting vegetables and fuel recorded an increase. In contrast, prices for clothing, footwear and air transport decreased.

• Generali Will Keep 10.1% Stake and One Seat in Supervisory Board

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had increased in May 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.6% on the previous month. For April 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 1.6% compared with March 2018 (primary -2.5%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had increased in May 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.2% on the previous month.

Domestic orders increased by 4.3% and foreign orders increased by 1.6% in May 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 6,7%, new orders from other countries decreased 1.3% compared to April 2018.

In May 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 0.6% compared with April 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 4.7% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 4.9% was recorded.

The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $'s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1769 (3579)

$1.1743 (2016)

$1.1720 (1134)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1657

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1637 (2949)

$1.1594 (2621)

$1.1547 (4446)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 101542 contracts (according to data from July, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1550 (4446);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3356 (807)

$1.3313 (681)

$1.3276 (1002)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3226

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3160 (1802)

$1.3129 (1820)

$1.3089 (2282)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 25238 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (2456);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 33225 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2609);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.32 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 3.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.