Notícias do Mercado

8 outubro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the value of the Canadian dollar has fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar

    The pound showed mixed performance against the dollar, which was reflected in a sharp decline , and in the same unexpected increase . Note that these fluctuations were associated with questionable headlines about running LTRO Bank of England and political chaos in the United States in the absence of news about the duration , " shatdauna " and the debt ceiling.

    GBP / USD pair dropped to a low of $ 1.6019 on the headlines that the Bank of England will launch something like the program LTRO, which eventually proved the misinterpretation of ordinary repo transactions . The pair then retreated above 1.6100 and peaked at 1.6123 , then lost on points known from Washington , where Republicans and Democrats are " playing with fire " is the eighth day after stopping the operation of the government.

    The yen traded weaker against most major currencies on speculation that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a default of the country , which led to a decrease in demand for refuge assets .

    Note that the dynamics of trading also reflected today's data , which showed that by the end of August in Japan 's current account surplus fell much more than expected compared to the same period a year earlier , as the country's huge trade deficit outweighed the return on investment abroad.

    According to the report , without seasonal adjustment, the surplus in the current account - the total of Japan's trade with the rest of the world fell by 63.7 % year on year, reaching at the same level of ¥ 161,500 billion ($ 1,670 million). Note that according to the average estimate of economists value of this indicator was only reduced to the level of ¥ 540 billion

    The Ministry of Finance also reported that a significant reduction in the current account balance was a surprise because of the sudden fall in the surplus in the income balance , which fell by 10% year on year, while dropping to ¥ 1,25 bln. , Which was associated with a decrease income from direct investment. We add that this was the first time in nine months, when the surplus in the income balance has decreased on an annual basis .

    Franc rose against the euro , after the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the policy to curb the growth of the Swiss franc against the euro , introduced two years ago to avoid the dangers of deflation and recession, was the correct measure to ensure price stability in the foreseeable future. Recall that the restriction of the pair EUR / CHF at 1.20 was introduced September 11, 2011 to deal with the growth of the franc , which could undermine the competitiveness of the Swiss economy, which is the eurozone 's main export market .

    Jordan also added that "the risks to the global economy are still downward , and the Swiss franc is still high, and therefore the SNB maintains a minimum exchange rate ."

    Minimum protection has been a major element of the SNB's monetary policy for more than two years , and last month, Jordan reiterated that this minimum rate is " a necessary measure to limit the risk ."

    However, "given that short-term interest rates are near zero , the minimum rate can prevent unwanted tightening of financial conditions in the event that the pressure on the franc strengthened again " - believes Jordan .

    The Canadian dollar declined significantly against its U.S. counterpart , which was associated with the release of disappointing data on Canada. At Statistics Canada reported that by the end of August trade deficit increased slightly , despite the forecasts of experts at a marked decline .

    According to the report , Canada's merchandise exports in August rose by 2.1 % to 39.8 billion , and imports rose by 1.8 % to 41.1 billion , resulting in a trade deficit rose to 1.3 billion U.S. , compared to $ 1.2 billion in July.

    Meanwhile, the Statistical Office reported that imports rose mainly due to energy raw materials , aircraft and other transportation equipment , and machinery. Note that the volume of imports increased by 1.2 %, while prices rose by 0.9 %. With regard to exports , its volume increased by 1.4 %, while prices rose by 0.4 %. The main contribution to growth was observed with the energy of raw materials, metallic and non-metallic mineral resources.

    In addition , the data showed that exports to the U.S. grew by 1.9 % to 30.1 billion dollars , registering the highest level since December 2011 . Imports from the U.S. rose 0.1 % to $ 26.1 billion . Thus, the trade surplus with the U.S. increased from $ 3.4 billion in July to 4.0 billion in August.

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3630, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6245, $1.6300, $1.6350

    USD/JPY Y96.00, Y96.90, Y97.25, Y97.70, Y98.00, Y98.05, Y98.10, Y98.50

    AUD/USD $0.9385, $0.9400, $0.9430

    EUR/NOK Nok8.0100

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9130

    AUD/JPY Y0.9095

    USD/CAD C$1.0455

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2300

  • 13:30

    Canada: Trade balance, billions, August -1.3 (forecast -0.7)

  • 13:18

    Canada: Housing Starts, September 194 (forecast 175)

  • 12:47

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600

    Bids $1.3550, $1.3520, $1.3500, $1.3455/50, $1.3420


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6200, $1.6175/80, $1.6145/50, $1.6120, $1.6100

    Bids $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5950


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9550, $0.9500, $0.9480

    Bids $0.9400, $0.9380, $0.9350, $0.9320


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y132.80, Y132.50, Y132.20, Y132.00

    Bids Y131.00, Y130.50, Y130.20


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y98.20, Y97.90/00, Y97.80, Y97.50

    Bids Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.80


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8550, stg0.8500, stg0.8480

    Bids stg0.8420, stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350

  • 11:02

    Germany: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY), August +0.1% (forecast +3.9%)

  • 11:00

    Germany: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM), August -0.3% (forecast +1.2%)

  • 10:26

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3630, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6245, $1.6300, $1.6350

    USD/JPY Y96.00, Y96.90, Y97.25, Y97.70, Y98.00, Y98.05, Y98.10, Y98.50

    AUD/USD $0.9385, $0.9400, $0.9430

    EUR/NOK Nok8.0100

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9130

    AUD/JPY Y0.9095

    USD/CAD C$1.0455

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2300

  • 08:16

    Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (YoY), September -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 08:16

    Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (MoM) , September +0.3% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 08:15

    Switzerland: Retail Sales Y/Y, August +2.4% (forecast +1.7%)

  • 07:45

    France: Trade Balance, bln, September -4.9 (forecast -4.8)

  • 07:21

    Asian session: The yen reached an eight-week high against the dollar

    00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) -2.0% +0.2%

    00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence 4 12

    01:45 China                 HSBC Services PMI            52.8 52.4

    05:00 Japan             Eco Watchers Survey: Current 51.2 52.2 52.4

    05:00 Japan             Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook 51.2 54.2


    The yen reached an eight-week high against the dollar as U.S. President Barack Obama reiterated he won’t negotiate with Republicans over the debt limit, driving demand for Japan’s currency as a haven. “We’re not going to negotiate under the threat of economic catastrophe,” Obama said yesterday during a visit to the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Washington.

    Republicans are insisting on changing the 2010 Affordable Care Act, while Obama refuses to engage in discussions about policy conditions tied to opening the government or raising the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has warned the U.S. may be unable to pay its bills after Oct. 17.

    The yen strengthened by the most since Sept. 18 yesterday as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown continued for a seventh day.

    Demand for the euro was supported before a report today forecast to show a rebound in German factory orders. In Germany, factory orders probably rose 1.1 percent in August, after a 2.7 percent decline the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg before the figures due today.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3555

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to $ 1.6065

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y97.15


    Once again there is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic, although the US government shutdown and keeps data releases to private and Fed numbers. The European calendar kicks off at 0600GMT, with the release of the German August trade balance data. French data starts at 0630GMT, with the release of the September Bank of France business survey. At 0645GMT, the French budget deficit data and the foreign trade data will cross the wires. Spanish August industrial output numbers will cross the wires at 0700GMT. Swiss data is set for release at 0715GMT, when the August industrial output and September CPI numbers expected. German data is expected at 1000GMT, when August manufacturing orders are set to be released. Analysts are looking for an increase of 1.1% on month and 4.0% on year.

  • 07:01

    Germany: Current Account , August 9.4 (forecast 13.5)

  • 07:00

    Germany: Trade Balance, August 15.6 (forecast 15.1)

  • 06:45

    Switzerland: Unemployment Rate, September 3.2% (forecast 3.2%)

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Oct 7'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3576 -0,34%

    GBP/USD $1,6088 -0,44%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9032 +0,44%

    USD/JPY Y96,68 -0,56%

    EUR/JPY Y131,30 -0,86%

    GBP/JPY Y155,54 +2,87%

    AUD/USD $0,9425 +0,35%

    NZD/USD $0,8302 +0,10%

    USD/CAD C$1,0313 -0,15%

  • 06:07

    Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook, September 54.2

  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Oct 8’2013:

    00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) -2.0% +0.2%

    00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence 4 12

    01:45 China                 HSBC Services PMI 52.8 52.4

    05:00 Japan             Eco Watchers Survey: Current 51.2 52.2

    05:00 Japan             Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook 51.2

    05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate 3.2% 3.2%

    06:00 Germany        Current Account 14.3 13.5

    06:00 Germany        Trade Balance 14.5 15.1

    06:45 France             Trade Balance, bln -5.1 -4.8

    07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y +0.8% +1.7%

    07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.1% +0.2%

    07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.0% -0.1%

    09:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks

    10:00 Germany        Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) -2.7% +1.2%

    10:00 Germany        Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) +2.0% +3.9%

    12:15 Canada            Housing Starts 180 175

    12:30 Canada            Trade balance, billions -0.9 -0.7

    15:45 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

    16:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

    20:30 U.S.            API Crude Oil Inventories +4.5

    23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence +4.7%

    23:50 Japan            Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


  • 06:00

    Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Current , September 52.8 (forecast 52.2)

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