Notícias do Mercado

10 janeiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus : dollar weakened on data from the U.S. labor market

    The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies after data showed the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected by economists. Recent data from the Ministry of Labor showed that job growth in the U.S. slowed sharply in December , closing the year surprisingly weak note and potentially complicating the possible actions of the Federal Reserve System in respect of bond-buying program .

    According to a report in December by non-farm payrolls increased by only 74 thousand , compared with an increase of 241 thousand in the previous month , which was revised up from 203 thousand add that this was the lowest monthly increase in within three years.

    In addition, the Department of Labor reported that the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 % from 7% , although this decline was largely the result of reducing the number of workforce.

    Economists had expected the number of people employed in December to increase by 194 thousand and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged - at around 7.0%.

    Despite the more than four years of economic recovery , the process of " healing " in the labor market is still far from complete. The unemployment rate remains close to levels that previously only seen during the recession . The proportion of Americans who are either working or looking for work fell to 62.8 % , while reaching a 35- year low.

    The euro exchange rate against the dollar earlier fell after it became known that eurozone GDP in the 3rd quarter in line with expectations of analysts. According to final data from the EU statistical office Eurostat, GDP in the treatment zone of the single European currency in the III quarter of 2013. increased by 0.1 % compared with the previous quarter . The results coincided with the preliminary data published in mid-November. On an annual basis Eurozone GDP in July-September 2013. decreased by 0.4 % ( expected to decrease also be 0.4 %).

    In 28 countries - members of European Union GDP in III quarter 2013. increased by 0.2 % qoq and 0.1% yoy .

    The slowdown in the growth of European economies in parallel with decreasing inflation and falling unemployment - even in the "problem" countries, such as Spain and Greece. Collectively, these data allowed the ECB in early November 2013. lower the interest rate to a record low of 0.25%.

    In addition, the dynamics of trade affect expectations official data on employment in the U.S. in December . According to the median forecast of economists , the number of jobs in the U.S. economy grew in December at 197 thousand and the unemployment rate will remain at 7% , minimum five years . Given these data, the overall increase in the number of jobs in 2013 will reach 2.27 million , the highest since 2005. Recall that yesterday, State Department of Labor said the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 15,000 to 330,000 in the week ended January 4.

    Pound previously fell substantially against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of data for Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of production in the UK manufacturing sector and industrial production as a whole has not changed in November, and construction output fell sharply , reducing hopes that the economic recovery was extensive .

    According to the report , the total production showed zero growth in November, and the figure for the previous month was revised downwards - to 0.3 % from 0.4 %. We add that the growth of production in the manufacturing sector in October was revised to 0.2 % from 0.4 %. Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent for industrial production and for production in the manufacturing sector .

    In addition, data showed that industrial production in the three months to November increased by 0.6 percent , and increased by 2.8 percent on an annualized basis in October ( the strongest growth since May 2011 ) . Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the UK production remains at 8.5 percent lower than during its peak in 2008 before the financial crisis .

    Separate data showed that the output of the construction sector in the UK fell by 4.0 percent in November from October - the sharpest drop since June 2012 .

    In annual terms, construction output rose 2.2 percent after increasing 5.1 percent in October.

  • 15:00

    United Kingdom: NIESR GDP Estimate, December +0.7%

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, November +0.5% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 13:46

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3700

    USD/JPY Y104.00, Y104.50, Y104.85, Y105.00, Y105.50, Y106.00, Y106.50

    EUR/JPY Y141.00

    EUR/GBP stg0.8225

    GBP/JPY Y169.25

    AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.8875, $0.8900, $0.8950, $0.9000

    USD/CAD C$1.0800, C$1.0900

  • 13:32

    Canada: Unemployment rate, December 7.2% (forecast 6.9%)

  • 13:32

    U.S.: Average hourly earnings , December +0.1% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:32

    U.S.: Average workweek, December 34.4 (forecast 34.5)

  • 13:31

    U.S.: Unemployment Rate, December 6.7% (forecast 7.0%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, December 74 (forecast 196)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Employment , December -45.9 (forecast 13.3)

  • 13:15

    European session: the pound fell sharply against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    00:00 Australia New Home Sales m / m -3.8 % +7.5 November %

    00:01 UK Retail Sales y / y in December +0.6% +0.4%

    03:00 China Trade Balance , December 33.8 billion 32.6 25.6

    05:00 Japan index of leading indicators in November 109.8 110.9 110.8

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index 110.4 110.6 110.5 November

    06:45 Switzerland 's unemployment rate in December 3.2 % 3.2 % 3.2 %

    07:45 France Industrial Production m / m in November -0.5% Revised to -0.3% +0.6% +1.3%

    07:45 France Industrial Production y / y in November 0.0% 1.5%

    08:00 China The volume of loans billion yuanev December 625589

    08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index m / m in December 0.0% -0.1 % -0.2 %

    08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index y / y in December +0.1% +0.2% +0.1%

    09:30 UK Industrial Production m / m in November +0.3% Revised to +0.4% +0.4 % 0.0%

    09:30 UK Industrial Production y / y in November +3.2 % +2.8% +2.5 %

    09:30 UK Manufacturing output , m / m in November +0.2% Revised to +0.4% +0.4 % 0.0%

    09:30 UK Manufacturing output , y / y +2.6 % Revised November from +2.7 % +3.2 % +2.8%

    10:00 Eurozone GDP q / q ( final data ) III m +0.1% +0.1% +0.1%

    10:00 Eurozone GDP y / y (final ) III m -0.4 % -0.4 % -0.4 %


    Euro fell against the dollar, after it became known that eurozone GDP in the 3rd quarter in line with expectations of analysts. According to final data from the EU statistical office Eurostat, GDP in the treatment zone of the single European currency in the III quarter of 2013. increased by 0.1 % compared with the previous quarter . The results coincided with the preliminary data published in mid-November. On an annual basis Eurozone GDP in July-September 2013. decreased by 0.4 % ( expected to decrease also be 0.4 %).

    In 28 countries - members of European Union GDP in III quarter 2013. increased by 0.2 % qoq and 0.1% yoy .

    The slowdown in the growth of European economies in parallel with decreasing inflation and falling unemployment - even in the "problem" countries, such as Spain and Greece. Collectively, these data allowed the ECB in early November 2013. lower the interest rate to a record low of 0.25%.

    In addition, the dynamics of trade affect expectations official data on employment in the U.S. in December . According to the median forecast of economists , the number of jobs in the U.S. economy grew in December at 197 thousand and the unemployment rate will remain at 7% , minimum five years . Given these data, the overall increase in the number of jobs in 2013 will reach 2.27 million , the highest since 2005. Recall that yesterday, State Department of Labor said the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 15,000 to 330,000 in the week ended January 4.

    Pound fell substantially against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of data for Britain. The Office for National Statistics reported that the volume of production in the UK manufacturing sector and industrial production as a whole has not changed in November, and construction output fell sharply , reducing hopes that the economic recovery was extensive .

    According to the report , the total production showed zero growth in November, and the figure for the previous month was revised downwards - to 0.3 % from 0.4 %. We add that the growth of production in the manufacturing sector in October was revised to 0.2 % from 0.4 %. Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent for industrial production and for production in the manufacturing sector .

    In addition, data showed that industrial production in the three months to November increased by 0.6 percent , and increased by 2.8 percent on an annualized basis in October ( the strongest growth since May 2011 ) . Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the UK production remains at 8.5 percent lower than during its peak in 2008 before the financial crisis .

    Separate data showed that the output of the construction sector in the UK fell by 4.0 percent in November from October - the sharpest drop since June 2012 .

    In annual terms, construction output rose 2.2 percent after increasing 5.1 percent in October.

    The Swiss franc fell slightly against the U.S. dollar , amid a report showed that consumer prices rose in Switzerland last month , registering with the second monthly increase in a row. According to the report , on an annual basis , consumer prices rose in December by 0.1 percent , while showing the same pace as in the previous month. We add that the consumer price index showed a positive change in November for the first time in more than two years. In annual terms, the average inflation rate in 2013 was negative - at 0.2 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent up to 2012 .

    On a monthly basis , consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in December , after they remained unchanged in November.

    Meanwhile, another report from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in December , unchanged compared with November. We add that the latter figure confirmed the experts' predictions . Meanwhile, the unemployment rate on an unadjusted basis rose to 3.5 percent in December from 3.2 percent a month earlier.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3583

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6400

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y105.05


    At 13:30 GMT , Canada will release a report on the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employees in December. Also this time, as the U.S. will report on the unemployment rate , changes in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector , the average change in hourly wages and the share of economically active population in December. At 15:00 GMT Britain to publish data on the change of the NIESR GDP in December.

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), Quarter III +0.1% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (YoY), November +2.8% (forecast +3.2%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Industrial Production (MoM), November 0.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Industrial Production (YoY), November +2.5% (forecast +2.8%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (MoM) , November 0.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 08:16

    Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (MoM) , December -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 08:16

    Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (YoY), December +0.1% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 07:45

    France: Industrial Production, m/m, November +1.3% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 07:05

    Asian session: The dollar remained higher

    00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -1.8% -0.9% -1.5%

    00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November +23.1% +20.1% +22.2%

    00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) November +0.5% +0.5% +0.7%

    00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y November +3.6%

    01:30 China PPI y/y December -1.4% -1.2% -1.4%

    01:30 China CPI y/y December +3.0% +2.7% +2.5%


    The dollar remained higher versus most major peers before government data today forecast show initial claims for unemployment benefits fell. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. probably fell to 335,000 in the week through Jan. 4 from 339,000 in the previous period, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before today’s Labor Department report. A report tomorrow may say U.S. employers continued to add positions and the jobless rate remained at a five-year low. Data tomorrow may show employers in the world’s biggest economy added 195,000 jobs last month after boosting positions by 203,000 in November, according to a separate poll. The unemployment rate probably held at 7 percent, the least since November 2008.

    The pound traded near its strongest in a year against the euro before policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today. ECB officials meeting today will probably keep the benchmark at a record-low 0.25 percent, according to all 51 economists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Policy makers at the BOE are likely to refrain from changing its 0.5 percent key rate, a separate poll showed.

    Australia’s currency weakened along with Asian stocks. Government reports showed retail sales in the nation rose in November by more than economists predicted, while building approvals declined.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3600-20

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6470-80

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y105.00


    UK IP/Mfg data due at 0930GMT to provide domestic interest though all markets will be overshadowed by the US employment report at 1330GMT.

  • 06:45

    Switzerland: Unemployment Rate, December 3.2% (forecast 3.2%)

  • 06:21

    Currencies. Daily history for Jan 9'2014

    (00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3607 +0,24%

    GBP/USD $1,6479 +0,20%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9067 -0,49%

    USD/JPY Y104,83 -0,01%

    EUR/JPY Y142,65 +0,22%

    GBP/JPY Y172,70 +0,15%

    AUD/USD $0,8897 -0,02%

    NZD/USD $0,8252 -0,15%

    USD/CAD C$1,0840 +0,19%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Friday, Jan 10’2013:

    00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m November -3.8%

    00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y December +0.6%

    03:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 33.8 32.6

    05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 109.8 110.9

    05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 110.4 110.6

    06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate December 3.2% 3.2%

    07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November -0.3% +0.6%

    07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y November 0.0%

    08:00 China New Loans December 625 589

    08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) December 0.0% -0.1%

    08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) December +0.1% +0.2%

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) November +0.4% +0.4%

    09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) November +3.2% +2.8%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) November +0.4% +0.4%

    09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) November +2.7% +3.2%

    10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter III +0.1% +0.1%

    10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter III -0.4% -0.4%

    13:30 Canada Unemployment rate December 6.9% 6.9%

    13:30 Canada Employment December 21.6 13.3

    13:30 U.S. Average workweek December 34.5 34.5

    13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings December +0.2% +0.2%

    13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate December 7.0% 7.0%

    13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls December 203 194

    15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate December +0.8%

    15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories November +1.4% +0.4%

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