Notícias do Mercado

13 agosto 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the euro fell sharply

    Euro fell against the U.S. dollar despite the strong data on industrial production in the euro area and the economic sentiment in Germany. It should be noted that industrial production in the euro zone rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in June on a monthly measurement, offsetting a decline of 0.2 percent the previous month, which was revised from 0.3 percent fall. Economists had forecast that industrial production will grow more rapidly by 1.1 percent.

    It also became known, the index of economic sentiment in Europe's largest economy rose to its highest level since March. A key indicator gave hope that a prolonged recession in the euro zone is coming to an end. Centre for European Economic Research ZEW reported an increase in the index to 42.0 in August, down from 36.3 in July, ahead of the growth forecast to 40.3.

    Note that some support the U.S. currency was the U.S. data. It is learned that retail sales in the U.S. rose as expected in July. The pace of growth slowed compared to the previous month, partly due to the noticeable drop in car sales.

    The report said that retail sales rose 0.2 percent in July after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in June. Economists had expected sales to rise 0.2 percent compared with 0.4 percent growth, which was originally reported in the previous month.

    Excluding the 1.0 percent drop in sales of vehicles and parts dealers, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in July compared with a 0.1 percent increase in June. The growth of retail sales excluding automobiles exceeded economists' estimates for a 0.4 percent rise.

    Experts note that the decline in the euro contribute to the expectations publication of the report on the euro area's GDP, which will be presented tomorrow. It is expected that in the second quarter, the eurozone economy was able to show growth, and interrupt a series of cuts, which is fixed for 6 consecutive quarters.

    The British pound fell slightly against the dollar after data on price indices. Inflation in the UK has slowed somewhat in July, with a 14-month high, and inflation output prices rose due to higher oil prices, showed data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday.

    Consumer price inflation declined to 2.8 percent, according to the forecast from 2.9 percent in June. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat after falling 0.2 percent in June. Core inflation, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco, slowed more than expected, up to 2 percent from 2.3 percent a month earlier. Economists predicted that core inflation will be 2.3 percent. In addition, the annual retail price inflation fell to 3.1 percent in July from 3.3 percent in June, in line with economists' forecasts.

    In another ONS report showed that producer prices inflation rose to 2.1 percent in July from 2 percent in the previous month, in line with economists' forecasts. Selling prices increased 0.2 in July, a monthly measurement compared with growth of 0.1 percent in June. The main contribution to the monthly increase in prices of petroleum products made and food.

    At the same time, inflation of purchase prices rose sharply to 5 percent from 4 percent in June. However, it remains below the consensus forecast of 5.5 percent. On a monthly measurement of the purchase prices rose 1.1 percent, slightly less than the 1.2 percent growth that had been expected in July.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Business inventories , June 0.0% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3150

    USD/JPY Y96.00, Y97.00, Y99.00, Y100.00

    GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500

    USD/CHF Chf0.9250

    AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9150, $0.9220

    EUR/USD A$1.4500

    USD/CAD C$1.0275

    CAD/JPY Y94.10

    USD/MEX Mxn12.65, Mxn12.75

  • 14:15

    U.S. import price growth falls well short of estimates

    After reporting decreases in import prices in each of the four previous months, the Labor Department released a report on Tuesday showing a modest increase in import prices in the month of July.

    The report said import prices rose by 0.2 percent in July following a revised 0.4 percent decrease in June. However, the price growth fell well short of economist estimates for a 0.9 percent increase.

    The Labor Department also said export prices edged down by 0.1 percent in July, matching the drop seen in the previous month. Economists had expected export prices to rise by 0.2 percent.


  • 14:00

    U.S. retail sales rise slightly less than expected in July

    Retail sales in the U.S. rose by slightly less than anticipated in the month of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, with the weaker than expected sales growth partly due to a notable drop in auto sales.

    The report said retail sales edged up by 0.2 percent in July following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in June. Economists had expected sales to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

    Excluding the 1.0 percent drop in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, however, retail sales rose by 0.5 percent in July compared to a 0.1 percent increase in June. The increase in ex-auto sales exceeded economist estimates for 0.4 percent growth.

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Retail sales, July +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Retail sales excluding auto, July +0.5% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Import Price Index, July +0.2% (forecast +0.9%)

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3410/20, $1.3390/400, $1.3370, $1.3350, $1.3320/30

    Bids  $1.3280, $1.3270, $1.3235/30


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5620/30, $1.5595/605, $1.5580, $1.5550/60, $1.5525/35, $1.5500/10

    Bids  $1.5440/25, $1.5405/00, $1.5390, $1.5375


    AUD/USD

    Offers  $0.9250, $0.9220/25, $0.9200, $0.9180, $0.9160, $0.9150

    Bids  $0.9110, $0.9100, $0.9090/85, $0.9080, $0.9050, $0.9020, $0.9000


    EUR/GBP

    Offers  stg0.8675, stg0.8665, stg0.8640/45, stg0.8620/30

    Bids  stg0.8580/75, stg0.8540, stg0.8500, stg0.8485/80


    EUR/JPY

    Offers  Y132.00, Y131.75/80, Y131.50, Y131.00, Y130.50

    Bids Y129.80, Y129.25/20, Y129.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers  Y98.50, Y98.20, Y98.00

    Bids Y97.40/35, Y97.20, Y97.00, Y96.85/80, Y96.50


  • 11:15

    Eurozone industrial production rises 0.7% in June

    Industrial production in the euro area increased in June, after falling in the previous month, data released by statistical office Eurostat showed Tuesday.

    Industrial production increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent month-on-month in June, reversing the previous month's 0.2 percent decrease, which was revised up from a 0.3 percent fall. Economists had forecast production to record a faster growth of 1 percent.

    Driving the rebound, production of durable consumer goods climbed 4.9 percent sequentially, and output of capital goods advanced 2.5 percent. Intermediate goods production was higher by 0.5 percent than in May.

    Partially offsetting these positive contributions, energy production recorded a 1.6 percent monthly decline, and output of non-durable consumer goods dropped by 0.6 percent.

    Year-on-year, industrial production moved up 0.3 percent in June, recovering from the 1.3 percent decline seen in May and April's 0.5 percent decrease. The annual growth rate matched expectations.

    Among the member states, the highest increases were registered in Ireland, Romania, Poland, Germany and Greece, while Netherlands, Portugal and France recorded the largest decreases.


  • 11:00

    U.K. July inflation slows marginally

    U.K. inflation slowed slightly in July from a 14-month high, while factory gate inflation accelerated on higher petroleum prices, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.

    Consumer price inflation dropped to 2.8 percent, in line with forecast, from 2.9 percent in June. On a monthly basis, consumer prices remained flat after falling 0.2 percent in June.

    Core inflation that excludes prices of energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed more-than-expected to 2 percent from 2.3 percent a month ago. It was forecast to ease moderately to 2.2 percent.

    Similarly, retail price annual inflation fell to 3.1 percent in July from 3.3 percent in June. Economists were expecting a marginal fall to 3.2 percent.

    Another report from ONS showed that output price inflation rose to 2.1 percent in July from 2 percent in prior month. The rate matched economists' forecast.

    Factory gate prices rose 0.2 in July from a month ago, compared with a rise of 0.1 percent in June. The main upward contributions to the monthly price rise were from petroleum products and food products.

    At the same time, input price inflation increased sharply to 5 percent from 4 percent in June. Nonetheless, it remained below the consensus forecast of 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, input prices surged 1.1 percent as expected for July.

  • 10:26

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3150

    USD/JPY Y96.00, Y97.00, Y99.00

    GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500

    AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9150, $0.9220

    EUR/USD A$1.4500

    USD/CAD C$1.0275

    CAD/JPY Y94.10

    USD/MEX Mxn12.67

  • 10:02

    Eurozone: Industrial production, (MoM), June +0.3% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 10:02

    Eurozone: Industrial Production (YoY), June +0.3% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, August 44.0 (forecast 37.4)

  • 10:00

    Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, August 42 (forecast 40.3)

  • 09:35

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), July +0.2% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 09:34

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), July +1.1% (forecast +1.2%)

  • 09:34

    United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, July 0.0% (forecast 0.0%)

  • 09:33

    United Kingdom: RPI-X, Y/Y, July +3.1% (forecast +3.1%)

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y, July +2.0% (forecast +2.3%)

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , July +5.0% (forecast +5.5%)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, July +2.8% (forecast +2.8%)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, July +3.1% (forecast +3.1%)

  • 07:20

    Asian session: The yen slid

    01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -3

    01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -7


    The dollar touched the highest in almost a week versus the yen before a report today that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fourth month. The U.S. Commerce Department will probably say today retail sales climbed 0.3 percent last month after a 0.4 percent advance in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

    The yen slid against all of its 16 major counterparts after Japan’s machine orders fell in June, spurring bets that the nation’s central bank will step up stimulus measures. In Japan, machine orders declined 2.7 percent in June from the previous month, when they climbed 10.5 percent, data released today by the Cabinet Office showed. That compares with an estimate for a 7 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey. Orders climbed 4.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the report.

    The euro strengthened versus most of its peers before a report that may show German economic confidence is at a five-month high. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say today its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 39.9 this month from 36.3 in July, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. If confirmed, that would be the highest since March. Analysts in a separate survey predict a report tomorrow will show the euro-area economy expanded 0.2 percent in the second quarter, edging back to growth for the first time since 2011. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi held benchmark borrowing costs in the 17-nation region at a record-low 0.5 percent on Aug. 1, reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3290-10

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5445-65

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose above Y97.50


    There is a raft of UK releases expected at 0830GMT, with the inflation report the main reading. Input prices are expected to have spiked higher in July, due to the sharp rise in oil prices which were further magnified by the fall in sterling. Sterling fell some 1.9% on the month against the dollar. Core output prices, which exclude petrol prices, are forecast to be flat on the month and up 1.2% on the year, showing underlying pipeline inflation pressure remain contained. The Bank of England's August Inflation Report predicted headline CPI would hold close to its June 2.9% level in coming months, dropping to around 2.8% on the year in July and averaging 2.82% in Q3. The British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index showed accelerating high street deflation in July, led by the drop in clothing and footwear prices. Offsetting the fall in clothing and footwear prices in the National Statistics data will be the near 1% rise on the month in petrol prices. Also due are the official UK house price numbers from the ONS.


  • 07:00

    Germany: CPI, y/y , July +1.9% (forecast +1.9%)

  • 07:00

    Germany: CPI, m/m, July +0.5% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 06:20

    Currencies. Daily history for Aug 12'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3298 -0,62%

    GBP/USD $1,5460 -0,49%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9260 +0,65%

    USD/JPY Y97,09 +0,51%

    EUR/JPY Y129,12 -0,11%

    GBP/JPY Y150,10 +0,03%

    AUD/USD $0,9138 +0,42%

    NZD/USD $0,7998 -0,01%

    USD/CAD C$1,0306 -0,17%


  • 05:57

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Aug 13’2013:

    01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -3

    01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -7

    06:00 Germany CPI, m/m July +0.5% +0.5%

    06:00 Germany CPI, y/y July +1.9% +1.9%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m July -0.1% 0.0%

    08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y July +3.3% +3.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y July +3.3% +3.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) July +0.2% +1.2%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) July +4.2% +5.5%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) July +0.1% +0.3%

    08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY)  July +2.0% +2.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m July -0.2% 0.0%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y July +2.9% +2.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y July +2.3% +2.3%

    09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment August 32.8 37.4

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) June -0.3% +1.1%

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) June -1.3% +0.3%

    09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment August 36.3 40.3

    12:30 U.S. Retail sales July +0.4% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto July 0.0% +0.4%

    12:30 U.S. Import Price Index July -0.2% +0.9%

    14:00 U.S. Business inventories June +0.1% +0.3%

    20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories August -3.7

    22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales, q/q Quarter II +0.5% +1.4%

    22:45 New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos, q/q Quarter II +0.6% +1.3%

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