Notícias do Mercado

14 agosto 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus: the pound rose sharply against the dollar

    The euro exchange rate is trading weaker against the U.S. dollar, although it regained some of the lost ground earlier. Note that the drop in the value of the single currency was even out strong GDP data for the euro zone, Germany and France. As it became known, eurozone GDP in the 2nd quarter, up 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. Compared to the same period last year, GDP Monetary Union fell by 0.7%. The results were better than expected by experts who predicted the growth of the first indicator by 0.2%, and the fall of the second - by 0,8%.

    According to revised data, in the 1st quarter of the euro zone economy falling relative to the fourth quarter was 0.3%, not 0.2% as previously expected.

    The most significant increase in GDP was recorded in Germany and France, which are the largest in the eurozone. The German economy grew by 0.7%, while experts predicted growth of 0.6%. The French economy for the period increased by 0.5%, analysts were expecting a 0.2% rise.

    Note that in the course of trade was influenced by the U.S. data, although to a lesser extent.

    The Labor Department said producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly remained unchanged in July, as rising pharmaceutical costs offset the fall in energy prices.

    According to the report, the producer price index was flat in July after a 0.8% increase in June. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.4%.

    Basic producer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in July after rising 0.2% the previous month. According to expectations, the underlying index should have grown by 0.2%. The index of producer prices for cars in July fell by 1.1%. The index of producer prices for energy carriers in July fell by 0.2%. The index of producer prices for raw materials in July rose by 1.2%. The index of producer prices for intermediate goods in July remained unchanged.

    Value of the pound has risen substantially against the dollar, which was associated with the release of data on the labor market and the publication of minutes of the Bank of England.

    In July, the unemployment rate in Britain fell by 29.2 million, exceeding the median forecast of -14.3 million and were better than the result of the June -29.4 million (restated). Unemployment rate by ILO standards in the three months to June remained at around 7.8%.

    As shown by the Bank of England meeting minutes from July 31-August 1, members of the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate at around 0.5%.

    Meanwhile, transparent communication policy, proposed by Mark Carney, and assuming that the Central Bank will not raise rates from the current level as long as inflation in the next 18-24 months will not fall under the 2.5% mark, won the support of 8 members. Martin Weale voted against the adoption of the new policy, explaining it by the fact that the "preferred to him in the time range of the inflation forecast is shorter than what was proposed."

    All members of the MPC unanimously in favor of keeping the size of the previous program of asset purchases (£ 375 billion). However, some members of the MPC noted that you may need additional stimulus, but this will depend on the first effects of the policy of transparency.

    In addition, the report showed that all members of the MPC considered market expectations for a rate hike, "Central Bank forecasts inappropriate" for the British economy.

    The Australian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart, which has helped the publication of positive data on Australia.

    As the results of recent studies that have been presented today Melbourne Institute and Westpac, in the current month Australian consumer sentiment index rose because the last rate cut, it seems, has led to the fact that people have become more confident in their financial opportunities that promises growth consumption in the coming months. According to a report, in the month of August consumer sentiment index rose by 3.5%, reaching a level of 105.7 in this case. In addition, it was reported that over the past 12 months, the index increased by 9.4%.

    In addition, the data showed that on issues of family finances compared to last year growth in August was an impressive 13%. At the same time, it became known that the rate of Finance forecast for the next 12 months increased by 9.7%, as compared to August last year, an increase of 23%.

    We also add that the index, which tracks expectations for the economy over the next 12 months also increased significantly - by 5.5%, while respondents were more careful in the forecast for the next five years.

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, August -2.8

  • 14:59

    Swiss economic sentiment improves further in August: ZEW

    Switzerland's economic confidence improved for the second successive month in August, a monthly survey by the Centre for European Economic Research in cooperation with Credit Suisse showed Wednesday.
    The ZEW-CS Indicator of economic expectations, which reflects expectations of surveyed financial market experts regarding economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon, advanced to 7.2 points in August from 4.8 points in July.
    The latest reading suggests that expectations for the economy might move over to a gentle upwards trend, after staying at near-stable levels for three consecutive months.
    In August, a higher number of analysts said they expect economic conditions to remain stable in the next six months. Meanwhile, the share of pessimists remained unchanged.
    The measure of experts' views of the current economic situation in Switzerland improved by 4.7 points to 30.9 points in August, hitting the highest level since August 2011.
    At the same time, the indicator of economic expectations for the Eurozone increased by 9.8 points month-on-month in August to 41.4 points, reaching the highest level since February 2010.

  • 14:44

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200

    USD/JPY Y97.45, Y97.60, Y97.75, Y97.85, Y98.25, Y100.00

    EUR/JPY Y129.00

    GBP/USD $1.5380, $1.5400, $1.5495, $1.5500, $1.5600

    EUR/GBP stg0.8620

    GBP/JPY Y150.90

    GBP/CAD C$1.5980

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2375

    AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9035, $0.9080, $0.9100, $0.9140, $0.9175, $0.9200

  • 13:59

    U.S. producer prices come in unchanged in July

    With an increase in prices for pharmaceutical preparations offset by a drop in energy prices, the Labor Department released a report on Wednesday showing that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly came in unchanged in the month of July.

    The Labor Department said its producer price index was unchanged in July following a 0.8 percent increase in June. Economists had been expecting the index to increase by about 0.3 percent.

    The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, edged up by 0.1 percent in July after rising by 0.2 percent in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to show another 0.2 percent increase.

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI, m/m, July 0.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, July +0.1% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI, y/y, July +2.1% (forecast +2.4%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, July +1.2% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 13:15

    European session: the euro fell

    05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.1% +0.6% +0.5%

    05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.4% -0.1% +0.3%

    06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.1% +0.6% +0.7%

    06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter II -1.4% +0.7% +0.9%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m July +0.2% -0.1% -0.3%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y July +0.9% +1.1% +1.2%

    06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.1% 0.0% -0.2%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m July +0.1% +0.4% 0.0%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y July +0.2% +0.5% +0.5%

    08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate June 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y June +1.7% +2.1% +2.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y June +1.0% +1.1% +1.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count July -21.2 -14.3 -29.2

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate July 4.4% 4.4% 4.3%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.3% +0.2% +0.3%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter II -1.7% -0.8% -0.7%

    09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) August 4.8 7.2


    The euro fell against the U.S. dollar despite strong GDP data for the euro zone, Germany and France.

    Eurozone GDP in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, according to the Eurostat.

    Compared to the same period last year, GDP Monetary Union fell by 0.7%. The results were better than expected by experts who predicted the growth of the first indicator by 0.2%, and the fall of the second - by 0,8%.

    Certificates pursuant to the revised data in the 1st quarter of the euro zone economy falling relative to the fourth quarter was 0.3%, not 0.2% as previously expected.

    The most significant increase in GDP was recorded in Germany and France, which are the largest in the eurozone. The German economy grew by 0.7%, while experts predicted growth of 0.6%. The French economy for the period increased by 0.5%, analysts were expecting a 0.2% rise.

    The U.S. dollar traded near one-week high against the yen ahead of tomorrow's publication of the index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    According to the median forecast of economists, the index is likely to be highest in the last six months and will be 10.2. Recall that the index is built based on the results of a survey of top managers and provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The indicator reflects the situation in the segment of industrial orders and business confidence in the business environment. Values ​​above zero reflect the increase of activity below - its decline.

    Also today, investors expect the president's speech, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard, who previously played for the continuation of the program QE. Performance will be held tonight in Paducah, Kentucky.

    The British pound rose against the dollar after data on the labor market and the publication of minutes of the Bank of England.

    In July, the unemployment rate in Britain fell by 29.2 million, exceeding the median forecast of -14.3 million and were better than the result of the June -29.4 million (restated). Unemployment rate by ILO standards in the three months to June remained at around 7.8%.

    As shown by the Bank of England meeting minutes from July 31-August 1, members of the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate at around 0.5%.

    Meanwhile, transparent communication policy, proposed by Mark Carney, and assuming that the Central Bank will not raise rates from the current level as long as inflation in the next 18-24 months will not fall under the 2.5% mark, won the support of 8 members. Martin Weale voted against the adoption of the new policy, explaining it by the fact that the "preferred to him in the time range of the inflation forecast is shorter than what was proposed."

    All members of the MPC unanimously in favor of keeping the size of the previous program of asset purchases (£ 375 billion). However, some members of the MPC noted that you may need additional stimulus, but this will depend on the first effects of the policy of transparency.

    In addition, the report showed that all members of the MPC considered market expectations for a rate hike, "Central Bank forecasts inappropriate" for the British economy.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3238


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5505

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y98.43

    At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the producer price index and producer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices in July. At 22:30 GMT New Zealand will report on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in July.

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3410/20, $1.3390/400, $1.3370, $1.3350, $1.3300, $1.3280-90

    Bids $1.3235/30, $1.3230, $1.3215-00, $1.3190


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5580, $1.5550/60, $1.5525/35, $1.5500/10

    Bids $1.5420, $1.5390, $1.5375, $1.5350/40


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9220/25, $0.9200, $0.9180, $0.9160, $0.9150

    Bids $0.9085/80, $0.9050, $0.9020, $0.9000, $0.8950, $0.8920


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8675, stg0.8665, stg0.8640/45, stg0.8620/30

    Bids stg0.8535, stg0.8500, stg0.8485/80


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y131.50, Y131.20, Y131.00, Y130.45/50

    Bids Y130.00, Y129.65/60, Y129.50, Y129.25/20, Y129.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.20, Y99.00, Y98.77/80, Y98.50

    Bids Y98.00, Y97.50, Y97.20, Y97.00, Y96.85/80


  • 11:30

    European stocks were little changed

    European stocks were little changed as data showed the euro area’s economy emerged from a record-long recession in the second quarter, led by Germany and France. U.S. futures fell, while Asian shares gained.

    Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area expanded 0.3 percent in the April-June period after a 0.3 percent contraction in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That exceeded the median estimate of 0.2 percent growth in a News survey of 41 economists. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 0.7 percent in the second quarter.

    The German economy expanded 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had forecast a gain of 0.6 percent.

    French gross domestic product grew a more-than-anticipated 0.5 percent in the three months through June, the national statistics office Insee said today in Paris. That beat the median estimate of a 0.2 percent increase.

    RWE lost 5.5 percent to 21.14 euros. Germany’s second-largest utility said recurrent net income, the measure used to calculate the dividend, climbed to 1.99 billion euros ($2.64 billion) from 1.67 billion euros a year earlier. That missed the 2.1 billion-euro average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

    Celesio slid 2.5 percent to 16.07 euros. The German pharmaceutical distributor cut its 2013 forecast to 405 million euros to 425 million euros, down from 445 million euros to 475 million euros, citing discount competition in the German wholesale market and additional negative currency effects.

    ThyssenKrupp AG slipped 2.4 percent to 16.43 euros. Germany’s largest steelmaker said it won’t rush the sale of its Steel Americas unit, which is taking longer than expected.

    FTSE 100 6,617.11 +5.17 +0.08%

    CAC 40 4,107.52 +15.02 +0.37%

    DAX 8,428.68 +12.92 +0.15%


  • 10:45

    Eurozone economy exits recession in Q2

    Eurozone economy exited recession in the second quarter of 2013, preliminary data released by Eurostat showed Wednesday.

    The gross domestic product expanded 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter following a 0.3 percent contraction in the first quarter. Economists had forecast a GDP growth of 0.2 percent.

    Compared with the same quarter of 2012, seasonally adjusted GDP fell 0.7 percent. This was slightly weaker than the expected 0.8 percent fall.

    Euro area's recession persisted for six quarters. Earlier today, Germany and France recorded stronger-than-expected growth rates for the second quarter.

  • 10:25

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200

    USD/JPY Y97.45, Y97.60, Y97.75, Y97.85, Y98.25, Y100.00

    EUR/JPY Y129.00

    GBP/USD $1.5380, $1.5400, $1.5500, $1.5600

    EUR/GBP stg0.8620

    GBP/JPY Y150.90

    GBP/CAD C$1.5980

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2375

    AUD/USD $0.9035, $0.9080, $0.9100, $0.9140, $0.9175, $0.9200


  • 10:03

    Eurozone: GDP (YoY), Quarter II -0.7% (forecast -0.8%)

  • 10:01

    Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), Quarter II +0.3% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 10:00

    Switzerland: Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations), August 7.2

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, June +1.1% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: Claimant Count Rate, July 4.3% (forecast 4.4%)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: Claimant count , July -29.2 (forecast -14.3)

  • 08:15

    Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, m/m, July 0.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 08:15

    Switzerland: Producer & Import Prices, y/y, July +0.5% (forecast +0.5%)

  • 07:46

    France: Non-Farm Payrolls, Quarter II -0.2% (forecast 0.0%)

  • 07:45

    France: CPI, y/y, July +1.2% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 07:45

    France: CPI, m/m, July -0.3% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 07:22

    Asian session: The dollar held gains

    00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August -0.1% +3.5%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.7% +0.8% +0.7%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.2% +3.0% +2.9%


    The dollar held gains from yesterday against most of its major peers as signs of economic recovery boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will next month reduce its asset purchases which tend to debase the currency.

    The greenback traded near a one-week high versus the yen before U.S. data which may show manufacturing in the New York region expanded at the fastest pace in six months. The New York Fed’s general economic index probably climbed to 10 in August, the highest since February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data tomorrow. Readings greater than zero for the so-called Empire State gauge signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who backed last month’s decision to continue bond buying, will speak today in Paducah, Kentucky. He has said central bank should wait for evidence the labor market and economy are strengthening before dialing back its quantitative easing program.

    Demand for the 17-nation euro was supported before a report which may show the region’s economy pulled out of recession. Euro-area gross domestic product probably grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, after six straight quarters of contraction, another survey showed before data today. The European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged this month at 0.5 percent. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said yesterday its index of investor confidence in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose to 42 this month from 36.3 in July. That was the highest since March and exceeded the 39.9 median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.



    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3250-70

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5435-55

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y98.00


    There is another full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, although European lawmakers and central bankers remain glued to their sun loungers - although some are likely to find their way to a microphone if the region does officially exit the 18-month long recession. The early data sees the release of the French Q2 GDP data, with expectations for 0.2% on quarter rise - which will translate as a -0.1% annualised reading. At 0600GMT, German flash Q2 GDP numbers will be release, with the expectations for a 0.6% on quarter rise. Further French data is expected at 0630GMT, with the release of the July Bank of France retail trade numbers, the July HICP data and the second quarter job creations. Spanish data due at 0700GMT will see the release of the June industrial orders data. The EMU flash second quarter GDP numbers will cross the wires at 0900GMT are are expected to confirm the area as a whole exited the recession in Q2.

    There is a raft of UK data expected at 0830GMT, including jobs and earnings data. The spotlight will be on the Labour Force Survey jobless rate for the

    three months through June, now the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has adopted a 7% LFS rate as an interim policy threshold. Also due at 0830GMT are the minutes of the August BOE MPC meeting.


  • 07:01

    Germany: GDP (QoQ), Quarter II +0.7% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 07:01

    Germany: GDP (YoY), Quarter II +0.9% (forecast +0.7%)

  • 06:33

    France: GDP, Y/Y, Quarter II +0.1% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 06:30

    France: GDP, q/q, Quarter II +0.5% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 06:22

    Currencies. Daily history for Aug 13'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3259 -0,29%

    GBP/USD $1,5446 -0,09%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9331 +0,76%

    USD/JPY Y98,24 +1,17%

    EUR/JPY Y130,28 +0,89%

    GBP/JPY Y151,38 +0,85%

    AUD/USD $0,9099 -0,43%

    NZD/USD $0,7965 -0,41%

    USD/CAD C$1,0342 +0,35%


  • 06:01

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, Aug 14’2013:

    00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August -0.1% +3.5%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.7% +0.8% +0.7%

    01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.2% +3.0% +2.9%

    05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.1% +0.6%

    05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.4% -0.1%

    06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.1% +0.6%

    06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter II -1.4% +0.7%

    06:45 France CPI, m/m July +0.2% -0.1%

    06:45 France CPI, y/y July +0.9% +1.1%

    06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.1% 0.0%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m July +0.1% +0.4%

    07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y July +0.2% +0.5%

    08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate June 7.8% 7.8%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y June +1.7% +2.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y June +1.0% +1.1%

    08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count July -21.2 -14.3

    08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate July 4.4% 4.4%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter II -0.3% +0.2%

    09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter II -1.7% -0.8%

    09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) August 4.8

    12:30 U.S. PPI, m/m July +0.8% +0.4%

    12:30 U.S. PPI, y/y July +2.5% +2.4%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m July +0.2% +0.2%

    12:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y July +1.7% +1.3%

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories August -1.3

    15:00 U.S. Quarterly Household Debt Report from New York Fed Quarter II

    17:20 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

    19:15 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

    22:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July 0.0%

    22:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI July 54.7

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