The EURUSD pair surged on Thursday after a combination of a somewhat hawkish ECB decision along with a weakening of US CPI. The pair was seen trading 0.50% stronger during the US session, hovering slightly below the important 1.17 mark.

The ECB has left monetary policy unchanged today, but it cut the 2019 GDP outlook from 2.1% to 1.9%. Subsequently, Draghi also said the ECB projects, "significantly stronger core inflation." This was a hawkish sign and the EURUSD rose afterward.

Moreover, the US CPI slowed more than expected and the yearly print came out at 2.7% in August, down from 2.7% in July. Additionally, the core gauge also missed estimates and decelerated from 2.4% to 2.2%. The greenback was sold-off after this news.

More important US data will be released on Thursday, such as retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation.

"The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us. Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?"

• The price pressure in Europe is strengthening

• Uncertainty about the prospects of inflation decreases

• Basic inflation will grow by the end of the year and will continue to grow afterwards

• The level of incentives will still be significant after the completion of net purchases of assets

• We see the movement of inflation to the target level

• The harmonized consumer price index of the eurozone is + 1.7% in 2018 against the previous forecast of + 1.7%

• GDP:

• 2019 1.8% vs +1.9% prio

• 2020 1.7% vs +1.7% prior

• 2018 2.0% vs +2.1% prior

• The recovery in lending growth in the private sector continues

• Monetary analysis confirms the need for a significant degree of stimulus

• Protectionism and emerging markets risks gained prominence

• Uncertainty around underlying inflation is diminished

• New growth and inflation forecasts

• Ample degree of monetary policy stimulus still needed (guidance unchanged)

The EUR / USD has increased by almost 70 points, having updated September highs The pair is currently trading at $ 1.1675.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter and energy were the main contributors to the seasonally adjusted monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index increased 1.9 percent in August; a 3.0-percent increase in the gasoline index was the largest factor, but the other energy component indexes also rose.

• ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments if needed

• 1.7% inflation is consistent with our mandate

• Eurozone has grown above potential for some time

* via forexlive

In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 203,000 to 205,000. The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 209,500 to 210,000.

"At today's meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term".

• Data Indicates More Significant Rebalancing Trend in Economic Activity

• Developments on Inflation Outlook Point to Significant Risks to Price Stability

• Will Continue to Use All Monetary Policy Tools for Price Stability

• Will Maintain Tight Monetary Stance Until Inflation Outlook Improves

• Downside Risks To Global Economic Growth Have Increased

• "Ongoing Tightening" Of Policy Needed To Meet 2% Inflation Target

• U.S. And China Trade Measures May Have More Negative Impact

• Financial Markets Signaling Greater Uncertainty About Brexit

• Recent Developments In U.K. Consistent With August Economic Forecasts

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 12 September 2018, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.

• Dallas District Reported 'Relatively Brisk Growth'

• Three Districts Reported 'Somewhat Below Average Growth'

• Employment Grew Modestly or Moderately Across Much of the U.S.

• Dallas District Noted Robust Job Growth

• Most Districts Reported Widespread Labor Shortages

• Wage Growth Modest or Moderate Across U.S.

• Prices Continued to Rise at Modest to Moderate Pace in Most Districts

• Iran Crude Exports Fell by 280,000 B/D in August

• Russian Oil Output Was Steady in August at 11.2 Mln B/D

• Keeps Oil-Demand Growth Forecasts Unchanged for 2018, 2019

• Iran Crude Output Fell by 150,000 B/D in August

The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in August 2018 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 103.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Prices were higher in particular for pharmaceutical and chemical products, while scrap became cheaper. Compared with August 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.4%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The trend unemployment rate decreased from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in the month of August 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said that "since last August, the trend unemployment and underemployment rates have both fallen. As a result, underutilisation in Australia was at its lowest level since late 2013, at 13.6 per cent."

Trend employment increased by around 29,000 persons in August 2018 with full-time employment increasing by around 21,000 persons.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in August 2018, after the July figure was revised up.

"For those people aged 15 to 64 years, trend participation was the highest on record. Female participation in this age group, at 73.2 per cent, was also a record high," Mr Hockman said.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 300,000 persons or 2.5 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in August 2018 and by 1.8 per cent over the past year.

In August 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) recovered to +0.5% over a month, after a slight downturn in July. This rebound came from a seasonal increase in manufactured product prices (+1.1% after −2.8%) after the summer sales in the metropolitan area. Moreover, food prices accelerated (+0.3% after +0.1%), in the wake of those in food excluding fresh products. Contrariwise, services prices sharply slowed down (+0.3% after +1.1%) due to the seasonal downturn in airfares and the drop in communication services prices.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices slowed down to +0.1% after +0.3% in July.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by 2.3%, as in the previous month. This slight drop in inflation resulted from a year-on-year slowdown in energy prices, partly offset by an acceleration in food prices. Services prices rose at the same pace as in the previous month and those of manufactured product fell by 0.1%, as in July.

The inflation rate - measured by the consumer price index - thus reached the two percent mark for the fourth consecutive month. Compared with July 2018, the consumer price index was up 0.1% in August 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 30 August 2018.

As in the preceding months, the increase of energy product prices had a considerable effect on the inflation rate. Energy prices were 6.9% higher in August 2018 than in August 2017 (July 2018: +6.6%). The prices of heating oil (+29.7%) and motor fuels (+12.4%), in particular, were higher than a year earlier. While the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply, relatively moderate price developments were observed for other energy products (for example, charges for central and district heating: +2.0%; electricity: +1.0%; gas: -1.5%). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.5% in August 2018.

7. The inflation rate - measured by the consumer price index - thus reached the two percent mark for the fourth consecutive month. Compared with July 2018, the consumer price index was up 0.1% in August 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 30 August 2018.

As in the preceding months, the increase of energy product prices had a considerable effect on the inflation rate. Energy prices were 6.9% higher in August 2018 than in August 2017 (July 2018: +6.6%). The prices of heating oil (+29.7%) and motor fuels (+12.4%), in particular, were higher than a year earlier. While the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply, relatively moderate price developments were observed for other energy products (for example, charges for central and district heating: +2.0%; electricity: +1.0%; gas: -1.5%). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been +1.5% in August 2018.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1792 (3560)

$1.1757 (889)

$1.1727 (448)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1627

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1595 (3617)

$1.1560 (5565)

$1.1522 (2804)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 89462 contracts (according to data from September, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5565);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3162 (716)

$1.3142 (657)

$1.3129 (350)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3029

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2950 (863)

$1.2919 (1457)

$1.2885 (1685)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 15 is 26285 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (3073);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 28466 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2498);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 12.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.