The U.S. dollar increased against the most major currencies after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed Chair said the economy in the U.S. is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete. She added that if the labour market continues to improve more quickly, the Fed will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, but weaker conditions will mean a longer period of low interest rate.

The U.S. Commerce Department released weaker-than-expected retail sales. The U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in June, missing expectations for a 0.6% gain, after a 0.5% increase in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

The retail sales in June was driven by weak sales at restaurants and auto dealers. Auto sales declined 0.3%.

Retail sales excluding automobiles in the U.S. increased 0.4% in June, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise, after a 0.4% gain in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.1% increase.

The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index climbed to 25.6 in July from 19.3 in June. Analysts had expected the index to decrease to 17.4.

The euro declined against the U.S. dollar after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany declined to 27.1 in July from 29.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 33.4. That was the seventh straight decline in seven months.

The ZEW economic sentiment index for the Eurozone increased to 61.8 in July from 58.4 in June, missing expectations for a rise to 62.3.

The British pound surged against the U.S. dollar after the inflation data from UK and testimony by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, but fell after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The consumer price index in the UK increased 0.2% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May.

On a yearly basis, UK consumer price index rose 1.9% in June, exceeding expectations for a 1.6% gain, after a 1.5% rise in May.

The house price inflation jumped to 10.5% in May from 9.9% in April.

The retail price index for the UK increased to 2.6% in June from 2.4% in May. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 2.4%.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testified to parliament's Treasury committee. He said that the timing of the first interest rate hike by the BoE would be "driven by the data".

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The producer & import prices in Switzerland were flat in June, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after a 0.1% increase in May.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S dollar after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. No major economic reports were released in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes and congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The RBA decided to keep unchanged its interest rate at 2.5%. The RBA said that low interest rate supports demand. Australia's central bank added that the Australian currency "remained high by historical standards".

Australia's new motor vehicle sales rose 1.7% in June, after a 0.4% growth in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

The Japanese yen traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar after congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The BoJ kept unchanged its interest rate. Japan's central bank will continue to expend the monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.

The BoJ lowered its growth forecast to 1.0% for the current financial year ending in March from the previous growth of a 1.1%.

The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the Senate Banking Committee today. She said:

• The economy in the U.S. is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete;
  
• There's no formula when the Fed will begin to increase its interest rate;
  
• Interest hike will based on a variety of indicators;
  
• If the labour market continues to improve more quickly, the Fed will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, but weaker conditions will mean a longer period of low interest rate;
  
• The Fed will continue to boost economic activity;
  
• Inflation remained below the Fed's 2% target;
  
• Monetary policy remains appropriate.
  
  

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testified to parliament's Treasury committee today:

• The timing of the first interest rate hike by the BoE would be "driven by the data";
  
• Carney is concerned that "asset price volatility has gone down";
  
• The UK housing market is a biggest risk to the durability of the economic recovery.
  
  

The U.S. Commerce Department released retail sales. The U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in June, missing expectations for a 0.6% gain, after a 0.5% increase in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise. But despite the weak rise, that was the fifth straight increase since January 2014.

The retail sales in June was driven by weak sales at restaurants and auto dealers. Auto sales declined 0.3%.

Retail sales excluding automobiles in the U.S. increased 0.4% in June, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise, after a 0.4% gain in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.1% increase.

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3675

USD/JPY Y101.65/70, Y102.00

AUD/USD $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400

USD/CAD C$1.0675, C$1.0750

NZD/USD NZ$0.8725

EUR/GBP stg0.7900, stg0.7950

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its interest rate decision today. The Bank of Japan kept unchanged its interest rate. Japan's central bank will continue to expend the monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.

The BoJ's maintained its inflation projections. According to the BoJ's board, Japan's economy the economy would continue recovering moderately.

The BoJ lowered its growth forecast to 1.0% for the current financial year ending in March 2015 from the previous growth of a 1.1%.

The BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that Japan's economy was only halfway to reaching the 2% inflation target. He added the central bank would maintain its stimulus measures until the 2% target was met.

Mr. Kuroda also said that he doesn't think consumer inflation will fall below 1%.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +0.3% +1.7%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June -2.0% -2.2%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m June +0.1% +0.3% 0.0%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y June -0.8% -0.8%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m June +0.1% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y June +2.4% +2.4% +2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y June +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) June -0.9% +0.3% -0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) June -5.0% -4.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) June -0.1% +0.1% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) June +0.5% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m June -0.1% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y June +1.5% +1.6% +1.9%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y June +1.6% +1.7% +2.0%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment July 58.6 62.3 61.8

09:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment July 29.8 33.4 27.1

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen today. Markets participants are awaiting new information on when the Fed could start to increase its interest rate.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment index, but later recovered its losses. The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany declined to 27.1 in July from 29.8 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 33.4. That was the seventh straight decline in seven months.

The ZEW economic sentiment index for the Eurozone increased to 61.8 in July from 58.4 in June, missing expectations for a rise to 62.3.

The British pound surged against the U.S. dollar after the inflation data from UK and testimony by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The consumer price index in the UK increased 0.2% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May.

On a yearly basis, UK consumer price index rose 1.9% in June, exceeding expectations for a 1.6% gain, after a 1.5% rise in May.

The house price inflation jumped to 10.5% in May from 9.9% in April.

The retail price index for the UK increased to 2.6% in June from 2.4% in May. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 2.4%.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testified to parliament's Treasury committee. He said that the timing of the first interest rate hike by the BoE would be "driven by the data".

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. The producer & import prices in Switzerland were flat in June, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after a 0.1% increase in May.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.7164

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Retail sales June +0.3% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto June +0.1% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index July 19.3 17.4

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index June +0.1% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories May +0.6% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

22:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.3% +0.5%

22:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter II +1.5%

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3675

USD/JPY Y101.65/70, Y102.00

AUD/USD $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400

USD/CAD C$1.0675, C$1.0750

NZD/USD NZ$0.8725

EUR/GBP stg0.7900, stg0.7950

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +0.3% +1.7%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June -2.0% -2.2%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m June +0.1% +0.3% 0.0%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y June -0.8% -0.8%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m June +0.1% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y June +2.4% +2.4% +2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y June +2.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) June -0.9% +0.3% -0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) June -5.0% -4.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) June -0.1% +0.1% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) June +0.5% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m June -0.1% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y June +1.5% +1.6% +1.9%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y June +1.6% +1.7% +2.0%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment July 58.6 62.3 61.8

09:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment July 29.8 33.4 27.1

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets participants are awaiting new information on when the Fed could start to increase its interest rate.

The New Zealand dollar traded slightly lower against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes. The RBA decided to keep unchanged its interest rate at 2.5%. The RBA said that low interest rate supports demand. Australia's central bank added that the Australian currency "remained high by historical standards".

Australia's new motor vehicle sales rose 1.7% in June, after a 0.4% growth in May. May's figure was revised up from a 0.3% rise.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The BoJ kept unchanged its interest rate. Japan's central bank will continue to expend the monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.

The BoJ lowered its growth forecast to 1.0% for the current financial year ending in March from the previous growth of a 1.1%.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Retail sales June +0.3% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto June +0.1% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index July 19.3 17.4

12:30 U.S. Import Price Index June +0.1% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. Business inventories May +0.6% +0.6%

14:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

22:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.3% +0.5%

22:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter II +1.5%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3700 (3104)

$1.3675 (2804)

$1.3645 (296)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3617

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3591 (360)

$1.3572 (1924)

$1.3547 (3486)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 24354 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3703);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 32782 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7751);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.35 versus 1.36 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 14

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7302 (1447)

$1.7204 (1430)

$1.7107 (1957)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7083

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6994 (2227)

$1.6897 (1974)

$1.6798 (1188)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 15860 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2106);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 21107 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2227);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3620 +0,10%

GBP/USD $1,7087 -0,13%

USD/CHF Chf0,8918 -0,02%

USD/JPY Y101,54 +0,27%

EUR/JPY Y138,29 +0,38%

GBP/JPY Y173,45 +0,15%

AUD/USD $0,9391 +0,01%

NZD/USD $0,8803 -0,10%

USD/CAD C$1,0710 -0,21%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

02:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y June +0.5%

04:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

04:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) June +0.3%

04:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) June -2.0%

06:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

06:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

06:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

10:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m June +0.1% +0.3%

10:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y June -0.8%

10:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

11:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m June +0.1%

11:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y June +2.4% +2.4%

11:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y June +2.5%

11:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) June -0.9% +0.3%

11:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) June -5.0%

11:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) June -0.1% +0.1%

11:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) June +0.5%

11:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m June -0.1%

11:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y June +1.5% +1.6%

11:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y June +1.6% +1.7%

12:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment July 58.6 62.3

12:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment July 29.8 33.4

15:30 U.S. Retail sales June +0.3% +0.6%

15:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto June +0.1% +0.5%

15:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index July 19.3 17.4

15:30 U.S. Import Price Index June +0.1% +0.5%

17:00 U.S. Business inventories May +0.6% +0.6%

17:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies

23:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -1.7