Notícias do Mercado
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23:47
ECB's de Guindos: Uncertainty now higher than during Covid
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said late Sunday that US President Donald Trump’s policies are causing more uncertainty for the economy than there was during COVID, per Bloomberg.
Key quotes
We need to consider the uncertainty of the current environment, which is even higher than it was during the pandemic.
What we’re seeing is that the new US administration isn’t very open to continuing with multilateralism, which is about cooperation across jurisdictions and finding common solutions for common problems. This is a very important change, and a big source of uncertainty.Market reaction
At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.05% on the day at 1.0883.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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23:33
US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Correction in the markets is healthy
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Sunday that he was not worried about the stock market, which has slumped multiple times amid US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Key quotes
I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They’re normal. What’s not healthy is straight up.
You get these euphoric markets. That's how you get a financial crisis.
I’m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.So I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable, and could there be an adjustment.
The country needed to be weaned off of massive government spending.
Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly.
There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.Market reaction
At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.03% on the day at 103.68.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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23:22
AUD/USD gains ground above 0.6300 ahead of Chinese data
- AUD/USD edges higher to around 0.6325 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- China has launched special initiatives to boost consumption and raise incomes.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slumped in March to the lowest since 2022.
The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.6325 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and special plans from the Chinese government to boost consumption and raise incomes. Traders brace for the Chinese economic data later on Monday, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Also, the US February Retail Sales will be released on the same day.
On Sunday, China announced to boost consumption by raising people’s incomes as a key driver of economic growth. The measures will include stabilizing the stock and property markets, and offering incentives to increase the country’s birth rate, as the government seeks to alleviate the deflationary pressures afflicting the economy.
Additionally, the government will include boosting employment and raising the minimum wage, as well as strictly enforcing the paid annual leave system. Any positive developments surrounding the Chinese stimulus plan could boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
On the USD’s front, the University of Michigan (UoM) published its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index reading for March, showing that the figure fell to 57.9, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in the previous reading. This reading came in below the consensus estimate of 63.1. Meanwhile, the UoM five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation jumped to 3.9% in March, compared to 3.5% in February.
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stay on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The financial markets have priced in nearly a 75% chance of a quarter-point reduction to the Fed's policy rate by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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22:58
China launches special initiatives to boost consumption and raise incomes
China has vowed to revive consumption by raising people’s incomes as a key driver of economic growth, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday.
Other measures include stabilizing the stock and property markets, and offering incentives to increase the country’s birth rate, as the government seeks to alleviate the deflationary pressures afflicting the economy. This will include boosting employment and raising the minimum wage as well as strictly enforcing the paid annual leave system.Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.09% higher on the day to trade at 0.6329.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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22:44
China’s Shenzhen announces eased housing finance rules
On Sunday, China’s local government in the southern city of Shenzhen will further relax policy on housing provident fund loans as Shenzhen is looking to spur property sales further and help clear the overhang, per Bloomberg.
Additional takeaways
The maximum limit for individual applications will be increased by 20% to 600,000 yuan and the loan ceiling for families will be lifted by 22% to 1.1 million yuan.
Buyers can cover up to 40% of their housing cost with provident fund loans when they get their first home.
For families with two or more children, the maximum amount of their loans will be raised by 50%
The policy will take effect from March 24.Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.09% higher on the day to trade at 0.6329.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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21:30
New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 50.4 to 49.1 in February
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