Notícias do Mercado

22 janeiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus : the Canadian dollar weakened on the statements of the Bank of Canada

    The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged and said to increase the economic growth projections . Canada's central bank left its benchmark one-day interest rate unchanged , at 1% , stating that the importance of the downside risks to inflation increased. However , it raised its forecasts for GDP growth , expecting increased demand from the U.S. and a lower Canadian dollar will boost exports.

    Monetary policy of the Bank of Canada aims to maintain inflation at around 2% . The Bank noted that inflation, which was weak , yet dropped below the target level . The central bank attributed the low rates in a severe economic downturn and competition among retailers .

    The Bank of Canada said that the balance of risks to the economy is the same as in October , and the risks associated with imbalances in the housing market " has not changed substantially ."

    According to the quarterly report of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy , the risks with regard to inflation expectations " broadly balanced " , with a certain degree of competition in the retail sector in Canada temporarily affect prices . It "does not necessarily provoke a response of monetary policy " , if inflation expectations do not change.

    The statement said that the return of inflation to the target level of 2 % " will take about two years ," while the negative impact from the high competition among retailers is weakening, and excess capacity absorbed. Projections for basic and general inflation were lowered for most quarters until the end of 2015.

    The Bank of Canada raised its forecast for GDP growth in Canada in 2013 to 1.8 % from 1.6% , and it is now believed that the GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 2.5% per annum , while in October it predicted growth 2.3%. The central bank also raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2014 to 2.5% from 2.3 %, but lowered its forecast for 2015 to 2.5% from 2.6% . Such forecasts for GDP growth suggests that the economy will return to full capacity over the next two years.

    Pound rose sharply against the U.S. dollar , which helped data that showed that the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in nearly five years , while approaching to the 7 percent threshold at which the Bank of England officials may begin to reconsider the amount of the asset purchase program . According to the report , the unemployment rate , as measured by the standards of the International Labour Organization , fell to 7.1 percent in the three months to November , compared with 7.4 per cent , which were recorded in the previous three-month period ( October) . Office for National Statistics said that according to the median forecast of economists unemployment was down to 7.3 percent . In addition, it was reported that in December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 24 thousand, which was much less than economists forecast - at 32.3 thousand Meanwhile, the report showed that the number of unemployed fell by 167,000 to 2.32 million in the three months to November compared with the previous three-month period . Add that it was the biggest decline since October 1997 and the second largest since records began this statistic in 1971.

    Yen demonstrates mixed against the dollar, which has been associated with the decision the Bank of Japan to refrain from expanding the program of monetary stimulus . We also add that the Bank of Japan left unchanged targets expansion of the monetary base in the range of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen ( $ 671 billion ) a year and confirmed forecast that core inflation in the 2015 fiscal year , which begins in April , will be on level of 1.9%. Fewer economists expect that the Central Bank will go to expand stimulus measures in 2014, as inflation accelerating. The dollar index fell , retreating from a two-week high on speculation that the Fed meeting on January 28-29, reduce the purchase of assets by $ 10 billion to $ 65 billion a month, and will continue to minimize the QE at the same pace in future meetings .

  • 15:00

    Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.00% (forecast 1.00%)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y104.05, Y104.15, Y105.00(VL), Y105.50, Y105.75, Y106.00

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3520, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3625, $1.3640, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6450

    EUR/GBP Stg0.8200

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9150

    AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.8825, $0.8900, $0.9000

    AUD/JPY Y90.95, Y91.50, Y92.25, Y93.00

    USD/CAD C$1.0940, C$1.1025

  • 13:15

    European session: british pound rose substantially against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    00:30 Australia Consumer Price Index m / m +1.2 % III m +0.5 % +0.8%

    00:30 Australia Consumer Price Index y / y III quarter +2.2% +2.5 % +2.7 %

    03:00 Japan Interest Rate Decision Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10 % 0.10%

    03:00 Japan monetary base Trust Bank of Japan, trillion yen 270,270,270

    03:00 Comments Japan BoJ monetary policy

    04:30 Japan PMI in all sectors, m / m in November -0.2% +0.4% +0.3%

    07:30 Press Conference Japan Bank of Japan

    09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual

    09:30 UK Change of average earnings (excluding bonuses) , 3 m / y November +0.8% +1.0 % +0.9 %

    09:30 UK Change of average earnings , 3 m / y November +0.9 % +1.1 % +0.9 %

    09:30 UK BoE Minutes

    09:30 UK Net borrowing state . sector , 15.1 billion in December Revised 14.8 12.3 10.3

    09:30 UK Number of applications for unemployment benefits , th December -34.3 -36.7 -32.3 Revised to -24.0

    09:30 UK jobless claims level of employment in December 3.8 % 3.7 % 3.7%

    09:30 UK ILO unemployment rate in November 7.4 % 7.3 % 7.1%

    10:00 Switzerland Index according to the expectations of investors and Credit Suisse ZEW January 39.4 44.0 36.4


    Rate of the euro regained almost all previously lost ground against the dollar , as the participants' attention gradually switched to tomorrow's data for the euro area . Note that on Thursday will present data on the PMI indices for Germany and the euro zone in January . These figures have been mainly in the expansion over the past six months , but close to the mark of 50 points, which separates expansion from contraction. In addition, they showed that not much is happening in the Eurozone economy , although the German economy continues to show a slight increase, which was observed until now. Thus , a number of better-than -expected readings on the PMI will be a " breath of fresh air " in this area. Meanwhile, add that, given the fact that the World Bank raised its growth forecast for developed countries, the last reading is likely to help confirm this improvement . According to the average forecast in January PMI for the manufacturing sector is expected at 53.2 compared to 52.7 last month , and PMI for the services sector - at the level of 51.5 , compared with 51.0 in December.

    Pound rose sharply against the U.S. dollar , which helped data that showed that the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in nearly five years , while approaching to the 7 percent threshold at which the Bank of England officials may begin to reconsider the amount of the asset purchase program . According to the report , the unemployment rate , as measured by the standards of the International Labour Organization , fell to 7.1 percent in the three months to November , compared with 7.4 per cent , which were recorded in the previous three-month period ( October) . Office for National Statistics said that according to the median forecast of economists unemployment was down to 7.3 percent . In addition, it was reported that in December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 24 thousand, which was much less than economists forecast - at 32.3 thousand Meanwhile, the report showed that the number of unemployed fell by 167,000 to 2.32 million in the three months to November compared with the previous three-month period . Add that it was the biggest decline since October 1997 and the second largest since records began this statistic in 1971.

    The Canadian dollar rose slightly against the U.S. dollar in anticipation of the decision of the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada is likely to leave rates unchanged at 1%, but all the attention will be focused on the accompanying statement . It is assumed that the monetary authorities will focus again on inflation below the target level , resorting to rhetoric pigeon . However , the Bank is unlikely to be mention of further easing . Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz previously reported that it will not raise rates until the employment will not rise and consumer spending will not recover . And since employment in Canada declined by 45 thousand in the last month , it is clear that the economy is still far from those conditions which , according to the runners needed to improve . However, the program can help minimize the Fed CB. Since Canada bond yields rising amid rising yields in the U.S. are growing and long-term rates in Canada .

    Yen demonstrates mixed against the dollar, which has been associated with the decision the Bank of Japan to refrain from expanding the program of monetary stimulus . We also add that the Bank of Japan left unchanged targets expansion of the monetary base in the range of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen ( $ 671 billion ) a year and confirmed forecast that core inflation in the 2015 fiscal year , which begins in April , will be on level of 1.9%. Fewer economists expect that the Central Bank will go to expand stimulus measures in 2014, as inflation accelerating. The dollar index fell , retreating from a two-week high on speculation that the Fed meeting on January 28-29, reduce the purchase of assets by $ 10 billion to $ 65 billion a month, and will continue to minimize the QE at the same pace in future meetings .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3533 , but then returned to session highs

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6564

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y104.75 from Y103.95, and then decreased slightly


    At 15:00 GMT held publication of the report of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy for the 1st quarter , and the decision will be announced on the Bank of Canada on the basic interest rate. Also during this time will cover the Bank of Canada statement . At 16:15 GMT will be a press conference by the Bank of Canada . At 21:30 GMT New Zealand will index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in December.

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3620/25, $1.3600/05, $1.35805, $1.3575

    Bids $1.3535, $1.3517, $1.3510/00, $1.3495, $1.3480


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6690/700, $1.6650, $1.6615/20, $1.6605, $1.6580, $1.6553

    Bids $1.6514, $1.6503-491, $1.6452, $1.6400, $1.6400/395


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.8940/50, $0.8920, $0.8900, $0.8890, $0.8888

    Bids $0.8845/40, $0.8800, $0.8757, $0.8750


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280/85, stg0.8255/65

    Bids stg0.8180, stg0.8165/60, stg0.8150


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y142.40/50, Y141.95/00, Y141.77/86, Y141.65

    Bids Y141.15/10, Y141.00, Y140.80, Y140.50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y105.25/30, Y105.15, Y105.00, Y104.80, Y104.75

    Bids Y104.20, Y103.85/80, Y103.50, Y103.20, Y103.00


  • 10:27

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y104.05, Y104.15, Y105.00(VL), Y105.50, Y105.75, Y106.00

    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3520, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3625, $1.3640, $1.3650

    GBP/USD $1.6450

    EUR/GBP Stg0.8200

    USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9150

    AUD/USD $0.8800, $0.8825, $0.8900, $0.9000

    AUD/JPY Y90.95, Y91.50, Y92.25, Y93.00

    USD/CAD C$1.0940, C$1.1025

  • 10:00

    Switzerland: Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations), January 36.4 (forecast 44.0)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , November +0.9% (forecast +1.1%)

  • 09:31

    United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, December 10.3 (forecast 12.3)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Claimant count , December -24.0 (forecast -32.3)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: Claimant Count Rate, December 3.7% (forecast 3.7%)

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, November 7.1% (forecast 7.3%)

  • 07:02

    Asian session: The yen weakened versus most major peers

    00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter III +1.2% +0.5% +0.8%

    00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter III +2.2% +2.5% +2.7%

    03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

    03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November -0.2% +0.4% +0.3%

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference


    The yen weakened versus most major peers, reversing earlier gains, as Japanese shares rose after the Bank of Japan stuck to a pledge to maintain record stimulus. Analysts have been cutting forecasts for additional easing by the BOJ as price gains accelerated more than halfway to its 2 percent goal. The percentage of respondents predicting an expansion of the central bank’s unprecedented stimulus between April and June fell to 33 percent from 37 percent one month ago, the Jan. 10-15 poll showed. Every economist surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted no change in policy today.

    Australia’s dollar rallied from near a three-year low after a report showed consumer price gains beat economists’ estimate, tempering bets on further rate cuts. In Australia, the trimmed mean gauge of core consumer prices rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today, compared with the median forecast of 23 economists for a 0.6 percent gain.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3580

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6470-90

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.50


    There is another full calendar on Wednesday, although data and events are lighter in the US. There is also likely to be a quiet day ahead in Washington, with lawmakers and government officials likely to be snowed in again, keeping government offices closed. The European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, when Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy addresses domestic lawmakers. At the same time, the 2014 World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos, Switzerland, which will lead to a slew of headlines from leading figures over coming days. Back on the Continent, at 1000GMT, Bundesbank Board member Joachim Nagel is scheduled to speak on "Financial and monetary challenges in 2014", in Leipzig, Germany. Also due at 1000GMT are the EMU nation third quarter government debt numbers. at 1500GMT, Portugal's Parliament is set to debate budget amendments.

  • 06:25

    Currencies. Daily history for Jan 21'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3560 +0,07%

    GBP/USD $1,6475 +0,30%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9100 +0,03%

    USD/JPY Y104,28 +0,12%

    EUR/JPY Y141,41 +0,18%

    GBP/JPY Y171,82 +0,42%

    AUD/USD $0,8805 -0,05%

    NZD/USD $0,8374 +0,60%

    USD/CAD C$1,0965 +0,17%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Wednesday, Jan 22’2013:

    00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter III +1.2% +0.5%

    00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter III +2.2% +2.5%

    03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

    03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

    03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November -0.2% +0.4%

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

    09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November +0.8% +1.0%

    09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November +0.9% +1.1%

    09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

    09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln December 14.8 12.3

    09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December -36.7 -32.3

    09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate December 3.8% 3.7%

    09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 7.4% 7.3%

    10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January 39.4 44.0

    15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 1.00% 1.00%

    15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

    15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

    16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

    18:30 United Kingdom MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

    21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) December -2.1%

    21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 56.7

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