Notícias do Mercado

21 janeiro 2014
  • 19:20

    American focus : the euro recovered losses against the U.S. dollar

    The euro rose against the dollar after the decline of the European session on the back of higher forecasts for global growth from the IMF. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised upward its forecast for global growth in 2014 amid increasing growth in the U.S. , the euro area and Japan. However, the fund said that the risks associated with deflation and financial sector can undermine the overall recovery .

    The IMF raised its forecast for growth in world GDP in 2014 to 3.7% from 3.6 % projected in October.

    U.S. head recovery. The IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. this year by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% , although it has lowered the forecast for 2015 by 0.4 percentage points to 3%. This is due to the ongoing battles in Congress over federal spending and balance .

    However, the IMF expressed less optimism about Europe, where the authorities have warned of growing risks of falling prices , threatening stall the already sluggish recovery

    As for Japan , the IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7%. According to the Fund , the Government of Japan will continue to face difficulties in terms of budget cuts , which would reassure investors , but not slow recovery.

    The IMF also raised its forecast for China's GDP growth , the second largest economy in the world , at 0.3 percentage points, to 7.5%.

    The euro exchange rate fell moderately earlier against the dollar, which was associated with the release of weak data on Germany. The results of recent studies , which were presented earlier today institute ZEW, showed that German economic expectations fell in January , contrary to forecasts for growth. But , despite the recession , the mood still remain elevated. According to the report , the sentiment index fell in the business environment in the current month to the level of 61.7 points compared to 62.0 points in December . It is worth noting that many economists predicted that this figure will rise to the level of 63.4 points. Nevertheless , we add that the index remained well above long-term average at 24.4 points.

    The data showed that 254 analysts and institutional investors were optimistic about the current economic conditions. We add that the ZEW indicator on current conditions rose in January to a level of 41.2 points, compared to 32.4 points in December .

    We also learned that the economic expectations for the eurozone rose in January. The corresponding figure improved by 5.0 points to 73.3 points. Indicator of the current economic situation in the euro area rose by 6.2 points to minus 48.2 points level .

    Pound was able to recover from the lows against the dollar. Noticeable influence on the bidding had data that were presented today by the Confederation of British Industry . They showed that the balance of industrial orders fell sharply in January, but the index that assesses the prospects for the next three months was at the highest level over the past two years. According to the report , the January balance promzakazov dropped to -2 points, compared with 12 points last month . Many experts expect that this figure is only slightly worse , but it is up to 11 points. In addition, it was reported that the balance of demands for the next three months rose to 22 points from 14 points , and reached the highest level since April 2012 . We also add that new orders in the three months to January, showed the largest increase in nearly three years .

    The data also showed that the quarterly balance of prospects for the companies declined to 21 in the three months to January 24 in the three months to October ( the highest since April 2010 ) . Recall that the British manufacturing sector is gradually recovering from the financial crisis , but remains below its peak in 2008 , underscoring the problem re- rebalancing the economy to reduce dependence on domestic consumption.

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y103.45, Y103.50, Y104.35, Y104.50, Y105.00, Y105.50

    EUR/JPY Y140.00

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3595, $1.3600, $1.3675

    GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6355, $1.6380, $1.6385, $1.6440/45, $1.6450

    AUD/USD $0.8825, $0.8850, $0.8900, $0.9000

    NZD/USD $0.8200, $0.8270, $0.8295, $0.8325

    USD/CAD C$1.0900

  • 13:30

    Canada: Manufacturing Shipments (MoM), November +1.0% (forecast +0.4%)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Wholesale Sales, m/m, November 0.0% (forecast +0.6%)

  • 13:15

    European session: the euro fell moderately against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    8:40 Speech UK executive director for financial stability Andy Haldane of the Bank of England

    10:00 Eurozone sentiment in the business environment of the ZEW institute in January 68.3 70.2 73.3

    10:00 Germany Consumer Sentiment Index in the business environment of the ZEW institute in January 62.0 63.4 61.7

    11:00 UK factory orders balance of the Confederation of British Industry January 12 11 -2


    The euro exchange rate fell moderately against the dollar, which was associated with the release of weak data on Germany. The results of recent studies , which were presented earlier today institute ZEW, showed that German economic expectations fell in January , contrary to forecasts for growth. But , despite the recession , the mood still remain elevated. According to the report , the sentiment index fell in the business environment in the current month to the level of 61.7 points compared to 62.0 points in December . It is worth noting that many economists predicted that this figure will rise to the level of 63.4 points. Nevertheless , we add that the index remained well above long-term average at 24.4 points.

    The data showed that 254 analysts and institutional investors were optimistic about the current economic conditions. We add that the ZEW indicator on current conditions rose in January to a level of 41.2 points, compared to 32.4 points in December .

    We also learned that the economic expectations for the eurozone rose in January. The corresponding figure improved by 5.0 points to 73.3 points. Indicator of the current economic situation in the euro area rose by 6.2 points to minus 48.2 points level .

    Pound was able to recover from the lows against the dollar , reaching levels at this opening session. Noticeable influence on the bidding had data that were presented today by the Confederation of British Industry . They showed that the balance of industrial orders fell sharply in January, but the index that assesses the prospects for the next three months was at the highest level over the past two years. According to the report , the January balance promzakazov dropped to -2 points, compared with 12 points last month . Many experts expect that this figure is only slightly worse , but it is up to 11 points. In addition, it was reported that the balance of demands for the next three months rose to 22 points from 14 points , and reached the highest level since April 2012 . We also add that new orders in the three months to January, showed the largest increase in nearly three years .

    The data also showed that the quarterly balance of prospects for the companies declined to 21 in the three months to January 24 in the three months to October ( the highest since April 2010 ) . Recall that the British manufacturing sector is gradually recovering from the financial crisis , but remains below its peak in 2008 , underscoring the problem re- rebalancing the economy to reduce dependence on domestic consumption.

    The dollar rose against the yen, halting a three-day decline , on expectations that the Fed will continue to minimize the program of quantitative easing QE at the January meeting , to be held January 28-29 . According to the median forecast of economists , the Fed will reduce the amount of government foreclosures and mortgage debt by $ 10 billion and will do so at each subsequent meeting until the end of the QE program this year. Experts note that the " variables still point to a further appreciation of the dollar . State of the U.S. economy will gradually improve . In statements Fed traced more determination against folding QE ».


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3515 , then recovered slightly

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6451 , but then fell to $ 1.6398 , then returned to the opening level

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y104.75


    At 13:30 GMT , Canada announces the change of volume of production and supply changes in the volume of wholesale trade in November. At 23:30 GMT Australia will release the consumer confidence index from Westpac in January .

  • 11:00

    United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, January -2 (forecast 11)

  • 10:21

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y103.45, Y103.50, Y104.35, Y104.50, Y105.00, Y105.50

    EUR/JPY Y140.00

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3525, $1.3595, $1.3600, $1.3675

    GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6355, $1.6380, $1.6385, $1.6440/45, $1.6450

    AUD/USD $0.8825, $0.8850, $0.8900, $0.9000

    NZD/USD $0.8200, $0.8270, $0.8295, $0.8325

    USD/CAD C$1.0900

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, January 73.3 (forecast 70.2)

  • 10:00

    Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, January 61.7 (forecast 63.4)

  • 07:04

    Asian session: The dollar rose against the yen


    The dollar rose against the yen, ending a three-day drop, as signs of U.S. economic growth backed the case for the Federal Reserve to pare stimulus.

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained for a sixth day before the Federal Open Market Committee meets Jan. 28-29. The Fed will reduce purchases of government and mortgage debt by $10 billion at each policy meeting to end its asset-buying program this year, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg poll.

    The euro halted a four-day slide versus the yen before data forecast to show the outlook for business confidence in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, climbed to the highest level in almost eight years. In Germany, an index of investor and analyst expectations jumped to 64 in January from 62 in December, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say today, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the highest since February 2006.

    New Zealand’s dollar remained stronger after the nation’s inflation accelerated more than economists forecast, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank will tighten policy. New Zealand’s consumer prices in the fourth quarter rose 1.6 percent, the fastest annual pace since early 2012, from the year-earlier period. Economists expected annual inflation of 1.5 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on Jan. 30.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3535-60

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6410-35

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.70


    Today's German and eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data are key event risks for the euro and could inject some volatility. CBI trends data at 1100GMT provides the domestic interest today, though most expect continued range trading until the US markets return from their long weekend.

  • 06:24

    Currencies. Daily history for Jan 17'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3551 +0,18%

    GBP/USD $1,6426 +0,11%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9097 -0,15%

    USD/JPY Y104,16 -0,12%

    EUR/JPY Y141,16 +0,08%

    GBP/JPY Y171,10 0,00%

    AUD/USD $0,8809 +0,42%

    NZD/USD $0,8324 +0,82%

    USD/CAD C$1,0946 -0,25%

  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jan 21’2013:

    08:40 United Kingdom Executive Director for Financial Stability Andy Haldane Speaks

    10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment January 68.3 70.2

    10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment January 62.0 63.4

    11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January 12 11

    13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November +1.0% +0.4%

    13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m November +1.4% +0.6%

    21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories January -4.1

    23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence January -4.8%

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