During the U.S. session on Forex U.S. dollar rose against most currencies after the release of the inflation report and housing data.
Consumer prices continued to rise in June, but slightly slowed down compared to the previous month. This was stated in the report submitted to the Department of Labor.
According to the data, the June consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% after rising 0.4% in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the index rose by 0.1% compared to 0.4% in May. Economists predicted a 0.3% growth of the overall index and a 0.2% increase in the benchmark.
In annual terms, the consumer price index rose by 2.1%, which corresponded to an increase in the previous month and was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose by 1.9% per annum, the pace slowed slightly compared to May (when the index rose by 2%). Economists had expected an increase of 2.0%,
Also add that the index for personal consumption expenditures, which is the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, rose by 1.8% per annum, while the core index (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.5%.
In turn, the volume of sales in the secondary market in the U.S. has grown significantly at the end of June, while fixing the third monthly increase in a row, which is a sign of recovery after months of decline.
National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that seasonally adjusted sales in the secondary market rose in June by 2.6%, reaching an annual rate of 5.04 million units, the highest since October last year. We also add that the figure for May was revised upward - to 4.91 million units from 4.89 million units. Economists had expected sales to increase to 4.98 million level
"We see that the recovery in the housing market takes on a broader basis," - said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. He also pointed to an increase in purchases made by those who are first-time buyers, and highlighted the improvement in single-family housing sector sales and condominiums. But despite the growth, the market has not regained its former strength. Compared to last year, sales in June fell 2.3%. We also add that the current pace of sales roughly correspond to the level of 2000.
Today's report also showed that prices rose more slowly than in previous months. The average sales price of the home in June was $ 223,300, which is 4.3% higher than the same period last year. Also note that the number of homes for sale rose by 6.5% compared with a year earlier. Given the current pace of sales will require 5.5 months to exhaust the entire stock.
Pound fell, came under pressure amid a general strengthening of the dollar against European rivals. British data reflected the drop in public sector borrowing (PSNB) to £ 9.506 billion in June from £ 10.300 billion forecast, although pound for almost did not react. We also learned that Britain's budget deficit widened in the first three months of the fiscal year, as an increase in investment income was offset by a slight change. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to reports, the UK's budget deficit increased to 36,100 billion pounds ($ 45.600 billion) in the three months fingoda (June), compared with 33.7 billion pounds in the same period last year. Higher spending on benefits, local governments and investment income offset rising by 1.6%. Meanwhile, it became known that the June budget deficit was at 11.4 billion pounds, compared with 11.5 billion pounds last year. Taking into account the transfers from the Bank of England, the budget deficit in June 2013 was 7.6 billion pounds.
USDJPY 101.00 101.75 101.95 102.15
EURUSD 1.3450 1.3500 1.3540 1.3550 1.3565 1.3580 1.3600
GBPUSD 1.7075
USDCHF 0.9050
AUDUSD 0.9365
USDCAD 1.0745 1.0765 1.0800
NZDUSD 0.8575 0.8665
EURGBP 0.7975
EURJPY 137.00
Data
2:00 China Index of leading indicators in June +0.7% +1.3%
3:00 Australia Speech by RBA Glenn Stevens
4:30 Japan PMI in all sectors, m / m -4.3% May +0.7% +0.6%
6:00 Switzerland Trade Balance, 2.85 -2.97 1.37 billion
08:30 UK Net borrowing state. sector, 11.5 billion in June 10.3 9.5
10:00 UK factory orders balance of the Confederation of British Industry July 11 September 2
The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, falling under the 1.3500 mark, and hit a low for more than 5 months. Apparent fall was not the catalyst, but the couple did not responded to the growth of European stock markets. So, apparently, acted classical scheme: that can not grow up must come down. EUR / USD absorbed foot and a low of 1.3480, marked the beginning of February. It is not clear if the bears are ready to derail a couple of euros to 1.3400 - the next key support, as the single currency still shows decent resistance lately.
Meanwhile, adding that investors are waiting for today's publication of the inflation data. According to the median forecast of economists, the consumer price index in June will grow by 2.1% on an annualized basis. The value may be the highest since October 2012. Recall that in the beginning of last week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that interest rates may rise sooner than expected, if the economic recovery will continue to improve. Nevertheless, the Fed chief also said that if the recovery is disappointing, then monetary policy will remain accommodative. According to yesterday's publication of results of a survey of traders agency Bloomberg, at the moment there is 46% chance the Fed rate hike by June. Recall, June 30 a similar survey indicated a 40% chance.
Pound fell moderately, came under pressure amid a general strengthening of the dollar against European rivals. British data reflected the drop in public sector borrowing (PSNB) to £ 9.506 billion in June from £ 10.300 billion forecast, although pound for almost did not react. We also learned that Britain's budget deficit widened in the first three months of the fiscal year, as an increase in investment income was offset by a slight change. This was stated in the report submitted to the Office for National Statistics. According to reports, the UK's budget deficit increased to 36,100 billion pounds ($ 45.600 billion) in the three months fingoda (June), compared with 33.7 billion pounds in the same period last year. Higher spending on benefits, local governments and investment income offset rising by 1.6%. Meanwhile, it became known that the June budget deficit was at 11.4 billion pounds, compared with 11.5 billion pounds last year. Taking into account the transfers from the Bank of England, the budget deficit in June 2013 was 7.6 billion pounds.
The Japanese yen rose slightly against the U.S. dollar, approaching to the maximum since July 17. USD / JPY pair is attempting to find catalysts that will allow it to recover, and is scheduled for today a report by the U.S. CPI may be a factor in a significant move, especially if it confirms the growing price pressures noted in previous releases. Although the Fed prefers to refrain from any direct allusions to the time of the first rate hike, the market may find strong CPI argument in favor of earlier actions.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3476
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7057
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.59
At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the consumer price index and the core consumer price index for June. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on sales in the secondary market in June.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530
Bids $1.3475, $1.3400, $1.3360
GBP/USD
Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115
Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9500, $0.9450, $0.9420
Bids $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50
Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80
Bids Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35
Bids stg0.7884-80, stg0.7850, stg0.7800
USDJPY 101.00 101.75 101.95 102.15
EURUSD 1.3450 1.3500 1.3540 1.3550 1.3565 1.3580 1.3600
GBPUSD 1.7075
USDCHF 0.9050
AUDUSD 0.9365
USDCAD 1.0745 1.0765 1.0800
NZDUSD 0.8575 0.8665
EURGBP 0.7975
EURJPY 137.00
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3625 (3228)
$1.3594 (908)
$1.3555 (97)
Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3523
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3500 (4144)
$1.3481 (2645)
$1.3453 (7698)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26196 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3934);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34746 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7698);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 21
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.7301 (1362)
$1.7202 (1548)
$1.7106 (2065)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.7077
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.6995 (2881)
$1.6898 (2108)
$1.6799 (1398)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16444 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2415);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23484 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2881);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.42 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 21
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
02:00 China Leading Index June +0.7% +1.3%
03:00 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m May -4.3% +0.7% +0.6%
A gauge of the dollar was 0.1 percent from the highest in a month as an increase in short-term U.S. Treasury yields signaled mounting expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
The correlation between dollar-yen and Treasury two-year yields rose to the highest since March, before data today that may show inflation held at the fastest pace since 2012. U.S. consumer prices climbed at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in June, matching May's figure that was the most since October 2012, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before today's Labor Department report. The inflation rate has increased from 1.1 percent in February.
Traders saw a 46 percent chance the Fed will raise the target rate for overnight bank lending by June, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg as of yesterday. That's up from a 40 percent possibility on June 30.
The Australian dollar rebounded after RBA Governor Stevens didn't comment directly on the currency, monetary policy stance or the outlook for the domestic economy in prepared remarks at a luncheon today in Sydney. The currency tumbled 1 percent on July 3 when he said it was "overvalued" by most measures. Australia's statistics bureau may say tomorrow consumer prices climbed 3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest increase since December 2011, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler will raise borrowing costs for a fourth time this year, to 3.5 percent on July 24, according to all except one of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Policy makers will boost rates by 69 basis points during the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. That compares with a projected increase of as much as 135 basis points in March.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3520-30
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.7080
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y101.50
UK public borrowing data due up at 0830GMT provides the domestic interest today, though overshadowed by US inflation data at 1230GMT.
(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3522 -0,01%
GBP/USD $1,7072 -0,07%
USD/CHF Chf0,8979 -0,07%
USD/JPY Y101,41 +0,07%
EUR/JPY Y137,13 +0,04%
GBP/JPY Y173,12 +0,01%
AUD/USD $0,9370 -0,22%
NZD/USD $0,8686 +0,03%
USD/CAD C$1,0737 +0,06%