During the U.S. session on Forex euro was little changed against the dollar, while continuing to bargain about eight-month low. Affect the course of trading yesterday the U.S. inflation data. Recall that inflation in the U.S. in June coincided with the forecast, rising by 0.3 percent, but core inflation - excluding prices for food and energy - was 0.1 per cent, that is twice lower than forecast. Despite this, the market still expects the Fed will continue to reduce the bond purchase program and start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. Experts note that the U.S. will raise interest rates next year, while in Europe, on the contrary, perhaps easing.
Slight pressure on the euro have concerns about Russia. It is expected that the EU will introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation.
Pound fell sharply against the dollar, while setting a new minimum in July in connection with the publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England and the data on mortgage lending. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England from July 9-10, showed: Committee members, as expected, voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and for the preservation of the current size of its asset purchase program £ 375 billion in addition, the Central Bank mentioned that refloat may reflect the performance of the British economy in comparison with other countries. Economy continues to grow modestly, but some indicators warn of a possible slowdown in the speed of the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Central Bank suggested that a potential threat to economic recovery in the event of a rate hike now decreased, and a number of representatives MPC noted that over the past few months, the balance of factors in favor of tightening has become more balanced. However, the Central Bank did not mention the possible timing of the first rate hike, explaining that they will depend on the data.
As for the report, it showed: in the past month, the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased slightly, recovering from a nine-month low, which was recorded in April and May. But despite the increase, the last value was slightly less than the average forecast of experts. According to the report, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in June to 43,265, compared with the revised figure for May at 41 881 (originally reported 41.8 million). Compared with the same period last year, the number of approved loans increased by 14 percent. In the British Bankers Association said: July growth was the first after the mortgage lenders have introduced more stringent lending criteria in April.
EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3545-50
USD/JPY Y101.70, Y101.85, Y102.15-20
EUR/JPY Y136.75
EUR/GBP Stg0.7990-0.8000
USD/CHF Chf0.8875, Chf0.9050
AUD/USD $0.9325, $0.9350
USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800
Data:
1:30 Australia Consumer Price Index q / q II m +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%
01:30 AU CPI y / y +2.9% m II +3.1% +3.0%
08:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA, th June 41.9 43.4 43.3
08:30 UK BoE Minutes
10:00 UK Retail sales according to the Confederation of British Industry on July 4 18 21
11:45 UK Speech BOE Mark Carney
Pound fell sharply against the dollar, while setting a new minimum in July, which was associated with the publication of minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England and the data on mortgage lending. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England from July 9-10, showed that members of the Committee, as expected, voted unanimously to maintain interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and for the preservation of the current size of its asset purchase program £ 375 billion in addition, the Central Bank mentioned that the strengthening of the pound may reflect the performance of the British economy in comparison with other countries. Economy continues to grow modestly, but some indicators warn of a possible slowdown in the speed of the 2nd half. Meanwhile, the Central Bank has suggested that a potential threat to economic recovery in the event of a rate hike now decreased, and a number of representatives MPC noted that over the past few months, the balance of factors in favor of tightening has become more balanced. However, the Central Bank did not mention the possible timing of the first rate hike, explaining that they will depend on the data.
As for the report, it showed: in the past month, the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased slightly, recovering from a nine-month low, which was recorded in April and May. But despite the increase, the last value was slightly less than the average forecast of experts. According to the report, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in June to 43,265, compared with the revised figure for May at 41 881 (originally reported 41.8 million). Compared with the same period last year, the number of approved loans increased by 14 percent. In the British Bankers Association reported that the July increase was the first after the mortgage lenders have introduced more stringent lending criteria in April.
The euro was little changed against the dollar, while continuing to bargain about eight-month low. Affect the course of trading yesterday the U.S. inflation data. Recall that inflation in the U.S. in June coincided with the forecast, rising by 0.3 percent, but core inflation - excluding prices for food and energy - was 0.1 percent, which is twice lower than forecast. Despite this, the market still expects the Fed will continue to reduce the bond purchase program and start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. Experts note that the U.S. will raise interest rates next year, while in Europe the opposite is possible easing.
Slight pressure on the euro have concerns about Russia. It is expected that the EU will introduce new sanctions against the Russian Federation.
The Australian dollar continued its rise and came close to the maximum on July 7. The course of trade is still affecting the publication of the government report on the level of annual inflation, which accelerated at the fastest pace in four years. Core inflation index, according to the Central Bank (by the trimmed mean) rose by 0.8% compared with the previous quarter. In accordance with the average forecast of economists index had gained 0.6%. The consumer price index rose by 0.5% compared with the previous three months, which corresponds to the economists.
In addition, the Australian dollar rose as investors expect that in the coming months, the Reserve Bank of Australia, led by Glenn Stevens will not reduce the interest rate, which is already at a record low level of 2.5%. According to recent polls traders, chances are that the Central Bank will cut rates by December is only 17%, whereas a week ago, the probability was 36%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3453 - $ 1.3472
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7029
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.31
At 12:30 GMT, Canada announces the change of volume of retail sales for May. At 21:00 GMT New Zealand RBNZ decision will be announced on the basic interest rate and will cover the RBNZ statement. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on its trade balance for June. At 23:50 GMT, Japan declares total foreign trade balance for June.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3530
Bids $1.3400, $1.3360
GBP/USD
Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115
Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9500, $0.9450
Bids $0.9380, $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.50
Bids Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y102.35, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80
Bids Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35
Bids stg0.7880, stg0.7850, stg0.7800
EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3545-50
USD/JPY Y101.70, Y101.85, Y102.15-20
EUR/JPY Y136.75
EUR/GBP Stg0.7990-0.8000
USD/CHF Chf0.8875, Chf0.9050
AUD/USD $0.9325, $0.9350
USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800
Asian stocks advanced for a third day, with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high, as U.S. inflation data damped concerns interest-rate increases will be brought forward.
HANG SENG 23,912.76 +130.65 +0.55%
S&P/ASX 200 5,576.7 +33.41 +0.60%
TOPIX 1,272.39 -0.88 -0.07%
SHANGHAI COMP 2,078.49 +3.01 +0.14%
Lotte Confectionery Co. surged 8.1 percent to a record close after the chocolate maker's parent moved to unwind cross shareholdings within the group.
AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. rose 1 percent in Hong Kong after customer Apple Inc. reported higher profit as iPhone sales jumped.
Tokyo Electron Ltd. slipped 2.9 percent after a report said its proposed merger with Applied Materials Inc. was opposed by China.
EUR / USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3577 (1185)
$1.3547 (483)
$1.3504 (85)
Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3464
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3441 (2593)
$1.3421 (7739)
$1.3395 (3828)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26675 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3873);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34820 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7739);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.31 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 22
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.7301 (1362)
$1.7202 (1667)
$1.7105 (2069)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.7074
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.6995 (2985)
$1.6898 (2120)
$1.6799 (1398)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16562 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2422);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23671 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2985);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.43 versus 1.43 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 22
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
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Australia's dollar strengthened to the highest in almost two weeks after a government report showed annual inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in four years. The statistics bureau said the annual trimmed mean inflation rate increased to 2.9 percent, the highest level since the three months ended March 2010. The central bank targets inflation of between 2 percent and 3 percent on average.
The Aussie advanced at least 0.2 percent versus all its 16 major counterparts as traders pared bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates this year. Traders see a 17 percent chance the RBA will cut its 2.5 percent key rate by December, down from a 36 percent probability a week ago, according to interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.
The euro fell versus most of its major peers before a report that economists said will show a gauge of consumer sentiment stayed negative in July.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3470-80
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.7075
USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.40
BOE MPC Minutes released at 0830GMT provide the morning focus. Traders expect a unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, the main interest will be if there is any hawkish split, though recent weak earnings data may offset the strong UK data and dampen rate hike calls.
(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3465 -0,42%
GBP/USD $1,7063 -0,05%
USD/CHF Chf0,9022 +0,48%
USD/JPY Y101,46 +0,05%
EUR/JPY Y136,63 -0,37%
GBP/JPY Y173,12 0,00%
AUD/USD $0,9392 +0,23%
NZD/USD $0,8667 -0,22%
USD/CAD C$1,0735 -0,02%
(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)
01:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.6% +0.5%
01:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +2.9% +3.1%
08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 41.8 43.4
08:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes
10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance July 4 18
11:45 United Kingdom BoE Carney speaks
12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m May +1.1% +0.6%
12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m May +0.7% +0.3%
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -7.5