The euro rose against the dollar after weak data on the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity. Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Richmond Fed) has shown that the producers of the central Atlantic region of the U.S. this month reported a decline in activity. The in Richmond Fed index of current business conditions in the manufacturing sector in July fell to -11 from 7 in June, and the June value was revised downward. The June was the first positive value since March. The index values above zero indicate an increase in activity. Richmond Fed sub-indexes in July showed a massive decline. The new orders index in July fell to -15 from 9 in June. The shipments index fell to -15 from 11. As for services, the activity is also decreased. Income index in the services sector fell to -6 to 12.
At the same time, the Bloomberg survey of economists showed that the expected reduction of the quantitative easing program to $ 65 billion in September. The survey was conducted July 18-22. Half of the respondents expect the onset of decline of the "quantitative easing" in September. That's more than 44% in the June survey. However, despite expectations, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continued to decline last week with a high of nearly two years after the announcement of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the reduction of redemption of bonds will not be a tightening of monetary policy. 15% expect to reduce the start of the program of "quantitative easing" the Fed meeting on 29-30 October. Half of waiting until the "quantitative easing" in the second quarter of 2014 None of the respondents expect to reduce redemption of bonds as a result of the Fed meeting on July 30-31. According to the median estimate, the Fed will buy bonds in the market for another 1.32 trillion. dollars to complete the program of "quantitative easing." 51% percent of the respondents believe that monetary policy is "too soft", 10% - that it is "too hard".
The pound before fell against the dollar, which was due by the publication of the UK. In the British Bankers Association reported that by the end of last month the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased moderately, reaching with the highest value since the beginning of 2012, but was less than the estimates of experts. According to the report, in June of this indicator has risen to the level of 37.278 million, compared to 36.290 million in the previous month, which was revised upward from 36.1 thousand added that many economists expect growth to 38.5 thousand .
Eurozone consumer confidence in July improved to its highest level since mid-2011, preliminary data released by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.
The flash consumer confidence indicator climbed to -17.4 from -18.8 in June. Economists had forecast a score of -18.3.
The latest confidence reading is the highest since July 2011, when it was -11. The confidence indicator rose for the eighth consecutive month.
Consumer morale improved also in the EU during July, with the indicator rising to -14.8 from -17.5 in June.
Final figures are scheduled to be released along with business and economic sentiment survey data on July 30.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3160, $1.3200, $1.3235
USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y99.75, Y100.00, Y100.25, Y101.00, Y100.55, Y102.00
GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300
USD/CHF Chf0.9385
EUR/CHF Chf1.2220, Chf1.2350
AUD/USD $0.9080, $0.9165, $0.9170, $0.9250, $0.9265
AUD/JPY Y89.60, Y90.50, Y92.00
USD/CAD C$1.0320, C$1.0400
Data
08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 36.1 38.5 37.3
The dollar rose against the euro in anticipation of the publication of today's U.S. data, as well as tomorrow's release of the report on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone. According to the median forecast of economists figure that shows business confidence in the manufacturing sector of the EU economy is likely to grow to 49.1 in July from 48.7 in the previous month. These expectations correspond to the level of March 2012.
Note also that in part on the dynamics of trade affected the results of the auction on the debt of Spain, which surprised investors. The yield on securities maturing in 3 months, dropped to the level of 0.442% versus the value of 0.869% in the previous auction. The yield on the 9-month debt dropped to 1.152% against prev. 1.441%. Spain managed to raise € 3.52 billion, exceeding the planned amount of € 2.5-3.5 billion At this stage, the country has financed 72.9% of the planned for this year cash requirements
We also add that the U.S. dollar strengthened against the background of Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 3 basis points to 2.52%.
The pound was down against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the publication of data on the UK. In the British Bankers Association reported that by the end of last month the number of approved applications for mortgage loans increased moderately, reaching with the highest value since the beginning of 2012, but was less than the estimates of experts.
According to the report, in June of this indicator has risen to the level of 37.278 million, compared to 36.290 million in the previous month, which was revised upward from 36.1 thousand added that many economists expect growth to 38.5 thousand
In the British Bankers Association reported that the increase in approved applications was supported by the scheme of credit financing from the Bank of England, which has helped those who are first-time buyers.
In addition, the data showed that the number of re-mortgages, meanwhile, fell slightly - to the level of 20478 from 20670 last month.
The total number of mortgage loans, including the purchase of houses, re-mortgages and other secured loans rose in June to 66,917 from 65,993 in the previous month.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.3161, and then went back up to $ 1.3185
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5328
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y100.19
At 12:30 GMT in Canada, there are data on changes in the volume of retail sales for May. At 14:00 GMT Eurozone will present indicator of consumer confidence for July. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will announce its trade balance for June. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on the overall balance of foreign trade in June.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3290/300, $1.3250/60, $1.3220/30, $1.32185, $1.3207
Bids $1.3160, $1.3145/35, $1.3125/15, $1.3105/00, $1.3080
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5470, $1.5440/50, $1.5420, $1.5390/410, $1.5385
Bids $1.5320, $1.5305/00, $1.5280, $1.5250/40, $1.5220
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9345/50, $0.9339 27, $0.9300, $0.9285/90, $0.9265/70
Bids $0.9225/20, $0.9200, $0.9155/50, $0.9140/20, $0.9110/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y101.00, Y100.85/90, Y100.50, Y100.35/40, Y100.20/25
Bids Y99.60/55, Y99.20/10, Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.50
EUR/JPY
Offers Y133.00, Y132.50, Y132.25, Y131.95/00, Y131.80
Bids Y131.30/25, Y130.80/75, Y130.55/50, Y130.20, Y130.10/00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8700, stg0.8675/80, stg0.8645/55, stg0.8625/30
Bids stg0.8582, stg0.8575/65, stg0.8550, stg0.8536
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3160, $1.3200, $1.3235
USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y99.75, Y100.00, Y100.25, Y101.00, Y100.55, Y102.00
GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300
USD/CHF Chf0.9385
EUR/CHF Chf1.2220, Chf1.2350
AUD/USD $0.9080, $0.9165, $0.9170, $0.9250, $0.9265
AUD/JPY Y89.60, Y90.50, Y92.00
USD/CAD C$1.0320, C$1.0400
The dollar held its biggest decline against the yen in almost two weeks, after U.S. housing data underscored the need for Federal Reserve support even as the central bank considers reducing its economic stimulus.
The U.S. currency was 0.2 percent from its weakest in a month versus the euro before data on home prices, following figures yesterday that showed residential sales unexpectedly fell. Home prices in the U.S. probably rose 0.8 percent in May, following a 0.7 percent advance the previous month, the smallest gain since January, the Federal Housing Finance Agency will report today, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Previously owned home sales in the U.S. fell in June amid tight supply and increasing mortgage rates. Purchases slid 1.2 percent to a 5.08 million annualized rate, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a 5.26 million pace. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week that any reduction in stimulus would depend on the performance of the economy.
Demand for the euro was supported ahead of data tomorrow forecast to show services and factory output in the region contracted at the slowest pace in more than a year. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both the services and manufacturing industries probably rose to 49.1 in July from 48.7 the previous month, London-based Markit Economics is predicted to say tomorrow, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. That would match the level in March 2012. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3205
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.5375
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range of Y99.10-60
Tuesday sees data on both sides of the Atlantic, but there are no scheduled appearances from central bank officials or leading politicians. The session gets underway with the release of French data. The main release is the July business climate indicator, including the July services and manufacturing sentiment indices. Sovereign bond sees The Netherlands re-open the off-the-run 3.25% Jul 2021 DSL and off-the-run 3.75% Jan 2042 DSL for between E1.5bln to E2.5bln. Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance sees Spain plan to tap the 3-month Oct 13, 2013 Letra and tap 9-month Apr 16, 2014 Letra. Also, then ESM plans to sell new 6-month Jan 23, 2014 for up to E2.0bln. Tuesday sees data on both sides of the Atlantic, but there are no scheduled appearances from central bank officials or leading politicians. There is only limited UK data at 0830GMT. The main release is the June BBA lending data. The UK housing market, boosted by the Funding for Lending Scheme and Help to Buy schemes, is gaining momentum. A further rise is mortgage approvals looks likely in June, with the highest forecast from the small number of analysts who predict this figure up at 40,000.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3184 +0,55%
GBP/USD $1,5356 +0,83%
USD/CHF Chf0,9409 -0,34%
USD/JPY Y99,61 -0,91%
EUR/JPY Y131,32 -0,36%
GBP/JPY Y152,94 -0,07%
AUD/USD $0,9244 +0,81%
NZD/USD $0,7970 +0,83%
USD/CAD C$1,0338 -0,36%
08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals June 36.1 38.5
12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m May +0.1% +0.4%
12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m May -0.3% +0.1%
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m May +0.7% +0.9%
13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y May +7.4%
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence July -18.8 -18.3
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index July 8 7
20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -2.6
22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln June 71 -102
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln June -821.0 -573.5