Notícias do Mercado

24 julho 2013
  • 19:31

    American focus: the dollar rose

    The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies after strong data on manufacturing activity and new home sales.

    As the results of studies that were presented Markit Economics, in July, preliminary index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to 53.2, up from 52.2 in June. It is worth noting that, according to the average forecast of experts this figure had climbed to 52.5.

    At the same time, as shown by recent data that has been provided by the Ministry of Commerce, at the end of last month new home sales rose markedly, reaching a five-year high at the same time, increasing the likelihood of an early economic recovery. According to the report, in June, sales of new homes rose to a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, reaching a level with 497 thousand units. We add that this was the highest since May 2008. Compared to the same period last year, sales were up 38.1%. Economists had expected sales to increase by only 482 thousand, compared to a revised downward indicator for the last month at 459 million (originally reported 476 thousand).

    Earlier, the European currency rose against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the publication of upbeat data for the euro area. According to a report from Markit Economics, the composite index of production, which measures business activity in both sectors, rose in July to a 18-month high - at 50.4, down from 48.7 in June. It is worth noting that, according to the average forecast of economists, the value of this indicator was up to the level of 49.1. Recall that the index value above 50 indicates expansion of activity in the sector, while a drop below 50 suggests contraction. Meanwhile, it was reported that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to the level of 50.1, down from 48.8 in June. We add that the latest reading was the highest in the last 24 months. Many experts have predicted an increase only to the level of 49.1. The data also showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose in July to the level of 49.6, down from 48.3 in June. The value of this index was the highest in the last 18 months. Economists had expected only a slight increase - to 48.9.

    The Australian dollar and the Japanese yen fell against the dollar after the release of negative statistics from China. As the results of recent studies that have been presented today Agency HSBC, the index of manufacturing activity in China fell in July to a level of 47.7, which was the minimum value over the past 11 months. Recall that in June, the index was at around 48.2. In addition, the data showed that the index of industrial production fell from 48.6 in June to 48.2 - a minimum of nine months. Recall that the index value below 50 show a decrease in activity, while growth above this mark suggests the extension.

    HSBC experts point out that the continuing decline in index of business activity in the industry is a sign of a slowdown in China's industry due to the reduction of new orders component and a faster reduction in inventories. It also adds pressure on the labor market. Given the fact that the Chinese authorities have recently announced that they will provide a minimum accepted level of economic growth needed to ensure job security, data on the index of business activity showed the need for incentives to stabilize the growth of the economy.

  • 16:00

    U.K. manufacturing order balance rises to 7-month high: CBI

    British manufacturers' order book balance improved sharply in July to the highest level in seven months, and firms expect further growth in orders in the coming months, data from a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed Wednesday.

    The latest industrial trends survey showed that manufacturers' order book balance increased to -12 percent in July from -18 percent in June..The figure matched economists' expectations.

    Looking ahead, manufacturing firms expect both orders and output to increase in the next quarter, the survey showed.

    "Optimism in the sector has risen again, and demand conditions are expected to improve further in the coming three months," Stephen Gifford, CBI Director of Economics, said.

    During the three months ended July, 32 percent of the surveyed firms reported an increase in their order books, while 27 percent said orders decreased, resulting in a balance of +5, which was the highest since April 2012.

    Manufacturers also reported an increase in production, with the balance rising to +7 percent during the three-month period. Firms were slightly more optimistic about the future prospects of their businesses than they were in the previous quarter.

    "The UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey for July and Q3 joins the chorus of surveys indicating that the manufacturing sector's recovery is gathering some pace, albeit less than in the rest of the economy," Capital Economics UK Economist Samuel Tombs said.

  • 15:30

    U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, July -2.8

  • 15:00

    U.S.: New Home Sales, June 497 (forecast 482)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3130, $1.3145/50, $1.3200, $1.3250

    USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.20, Y99.35, Y99.40, Y100.00, Y100.25, Y100.40, Y100.50, Y101.00

    EUR/JPY Y129.00, Y131.00, Y132.00

    GBP/USD $1.5350, $1.5355

    GBP/JPY Y151.00

    AUD/USD $0.9100, $0.9180, $0.9250, $0.9280, $0.9300

    USD/CAD C$1.0260, C$1.0330/35

  • 14:00

    U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, July 53.2 (forecast 52.5)

  • 13:14

    European session: the euro exchange rate rose moderately

    Data

    01:00 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.4% +0.5% +0.4%

    01:00 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +2.5% +2.5% +2.4%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.2 48.6 47.7

    07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.4 48.9 49.8

    07:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) July 47.2 47.7 48.3

    07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.6 49.3 50.5

    07:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) July 50.4 50.9 52.5

    08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.8 49.1 50.1

    08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) July 48.3 48.9 49.6

    10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance July -18 -12


    European currency rose against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the publication of upbeat data for the euro area. According to a report from Markit Economics, the composite index of production, which measures business activity in both sectors, rose in July to a 18-month high - at 50.4, down from 48.7 in June. It is worth noting that, according to the average forecast of economists, the value of this indicator was up to the level of 49.1. Recall that the index value above 50 indicates expansion of activity in the sector, while a drop below 50 suggests contraction.

    Meanwhile, it was reported that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to the level of 50.1, down from 48.8 in June. We add that the latest reading was the highest in the last 24 months. Many experts have predicted an increase only to the level of 49.1.

    The data also showed that the index of business activity in the services sector rose in July to the level of 49.6, down from 48.3 in June. The value of this index was the highest in the last 18 months. Economists had expected only a slight increase - to 48.9.

    Note also that the attention of market participants also focused on the output of today's data on the number of buildings sold in the United States. According to the median forecast of economists figure is likely rose last month to the level of 482 thousand new homes, compared with 476 million in May.

    Australian dollar and the Japanese yen fell against the dollar after the release of negative statistics from China. As the results of recent studies that have been presented today Agency HSBC, the index of manufacturing activity in China fell in July to a level of 47.7, which was the minimum value over the past 11 months. Recall that in June, the index was at around 48.2.

    In addition, the data showed that the index of industrial production fell from 48.6 in June to 48.2 - a minimum of nine months. Recall that the index value below 50 show a decrease in activity, while growth above this mark suggests the extension.

    HSBC experts point out that the continued reduction of the index of business activity in the industry is a sign of a slowdown in China's industry due to the reduction of new orders component and a faster reduction in inventories. It also adds pressure on the labor market.

    Given the fact that the Chinese authorities have recently announced that they will provide a minimum accepted level of economic growth needed to ensure job security, data on the index of business activity showed the need for incentives to stabilize the growth of the economy.


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3254

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading down $ 1.5335

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y100.17


    At 13:00 GMT the United States will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July. At 14:00 GMT the United States will become aware of the change in the volume of home sales in the primary market in June. At 21:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's main interest rate, and will cover the application of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3340/50, $1.3320, $1.3280/300, $1.3255/60, $1.3255

    Bids $1.3230, $1.3191, $1.3180, $1.3165/60, $1.3125/15


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5470, $1.5440/50, $1.5420, $1.5390/410, $1.5390

    Bids $1.5330/20, $1.5305/295, $1.5280, $1.5250/40, $1.5220


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9390/00, $0.9360/70, $0.9345/50, $0.9300, $0.9260/65

    Bids $0.9155/50, $0.9140/20, $0.9110/00, $0.9050


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8700, stg0.8675/80, stg0.8645/55, stg0.8625/30

    Bids stg0.8582, stg0.8575/65, stg0.8550


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y134.00, Y133.50, Y133.20, Y133.00, Y132.77/87

    Bids Y131.85/80, Y131.50, Y131.20, Y131.00, Y130.80/75, Y130.55/50


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y101.00, Y100.85/90, Y100.50 , Y100.35/40, Y100.20/25

    Bids Y99.60/55, Y99.40/35, Y99.20/10, Y99.00, Y98.80


  • 11:00

    United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, July -12 (forecast -12)

  • 10:26

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3130, $1.3145/50, $1.3200, $1.3250

    USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.20, Y99.35, Y99.40, Y100.00, Y100.25, Y100.40, Y100.50, Y101.00

    EUR/JPY Y129.00, Y131.00, Y132.00

    GBP/USD $1.5350, $1.5355

    GBP/JPY Y151.00

    AUD/USD $0.9100, $0.9180, $0.9250, $0.9280, $0.9300

    USD/CAD C$1.0260, C$1.0330/35


  • 09:00

    Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, July 50.1 (forecast 49.1)

  • 09:00

    Eurozone: Services PMI, July 49.6 (forecast 48.9)

  • 08:32

    Germany: Services PMI, July 52.5 (forecast 50.9)

  • 08:31

    Germany: Manufacturing PMI, July 50.5 (forecast 49.3)

  • 08:01

    France: Services PMI, July 48.3 (forecast 47.7)

  • 08:00

    France: Manufacturing PMI, July 49.8 (forecast 48.9)

  • 07:02

    Asian session: The dollar traded 0.3 percent from a one-month low versus the euro


    01:00 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.4% +0.5% +0.4%

    01:00 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter II +2.5% +2.5% +2.4%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) July 48.2 48.6 47.7


    The dollar traded 0.3 percent from a one-month low versus the euro as weaker U.S. economic indicators bolstered the argument for the Federal Reserve to delay a reduction to its bond-buying program. Sales of new U.S. homes probably rose 1.7 percent to an annualized pace of 484,000 last month, compared with 2.1 percent growth in May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Commerce Department report.

    The euro was supported before data predicted to show services and factory output in the region contracted at the slowest pace in more than a year. A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services and manufacturing industries improved to 49.1 in July from 48.7 the previous month, London-based Markit Economics may say today, according to economists. That would match the level in March 2012. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

    Currencies of Asia-Pacific nations including the Australian dollar and yen dropped versus the greenback after a private report showed China’s manufacturing shrank at a faster pace. The preliminary reading of 47.7 for a China Purchasing Managers’ Index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with the 48.2 median estimate a Bloomberg survey. June’s final reading was 48.2, with data below 50 indicating contraction.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3200

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5350

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y99.80


    The calendar gets underway at 0658GMT, with the release of the French flash July services and manufacturing PMI data. The flash services PMI is seen at 48.6, with services at 47.5. Both are higher than the July final numbers, but perhaps not quite underlined French FinMin Moscovici's statement that the recession is over. At 0700GMT, the Spanish June PPI numbers will be published. The main flash PMI numbers continue at 0728GMT, when the German July PMI numbers will cross the wires. Analysts see manufacturing at 49.0 and services at 50.6. The composite eurozone data will cross the wires at 0758GMT. Analysts median expectations see the flash manufacturing data at 49.0 and the lash services data at 48.6. The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey will be released at 0800GMT, the same time Italian May retail sales data will be published. Italian sales are seen unchanged on the month. German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler will give a press conference in Berlin at 1350GMT. The French June jobless claims numbers are set to be released at 1600GMT.

    There is a limited UK data calendar, with only the July CBI Industrial Trends numbers and the Q3 CBI Business Confidence data. The industrial sector's performance has been patchier than that of services, with the former struggling to generate significant growth. Analysts' forecast range, from a small sample, goes from an unchanged -18 to -10 for July's monthly order books. The latter would be well above the long-run average of -17 and point to expansion at the start of the third quarter.


  • 06:26

    Currencies. Daily history for Jul 23'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3224 +0,30%

    GBP/USD $1,5372 +0,10%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9347 -0,66%

    USD/JPY Y99,48 -0,13%

    EUR/JPY Y131,53 +0,16%

    GBP/JPY Y152,90 -0,03%

    AUD/USD $0,9288 +0,47%

    NZD/USD $0,7994 +0,30%

    USD/CAD C$1,0291 -0,46%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Wednesday July 24’2013:

    01:00 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter II +0.4% +0.5% +0.4%

    01:00 Australia CPI, y/y             Quarter II +2.5% +2.5% +2.4%

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI  (Preliminary) July 48.2 48.6 47.7

    07:00 France Manufacturing PMI            (Preliminary) July 48.4 48.9

    07:00 France Services PMI                (Preliminary) July 47.2 47.7

    07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI   (Preliminary) July 48.6 49.3

    07:30 Germany Services PMI                (Preliminary) July 50.4 50.9

    08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI   (Preliminary) July 48.8 49.1

    08:00 Eurozone Services PMI                 (Preliminary) July 48.3 48.9

    10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance July -18 -12

    13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI   (Preliminary) July 51.9 52.5

    14:00 U.S. New Home Sales                          June 476 482

    14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories                          July -6.9

    21:00 New Zealand          RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%

    21:00 New Zealand          RBNZ Rate Statement

    23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y                                         June +0.3% +0.7%

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