Notícias do Mercado

25 novembro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus : the euro fell

    Euro fell against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the comments of representatives of the ECB. Note that today, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer that interest rates should remain low for an extended period of time , and if necessary they can be further reduced , as officials try to ensure price stability in the euro area .

    "If regular monetary policy stops working , in order to achieve price stability, the central bank must " invent " policy" , - said Noyer , suggesting that after a sudden deceleration of inflation , the ECB leaves all options open. "We see a risk that inflation will remain low for some time . We will keep interest rates low for an extended period of time , or even lower , if it is necessary for price stability , " Noyer said .

    Meanwhile, ECB executive board member Benoit Ker said that at the moment disinflation in Europe is likely to continue , but will not progress to deflation , because the economy recovers , and inflation expectations remain at around 2 percent. Ker said that the European economy is stabilizing and strengthening the banking sector , but policymakers need to make progress in structural reforms to reduce unemployment and stimulate business investment .

    Several euro recoup their losses and retreated from the lows after the latest data from the National Association of Realtors U.S. dollar weakened . The data showed that the number of Americans who signed contracts to buy housing on the secondary market, unexpectedly fell in October , registering with the fifth consecutive monthly decline . Such dynamics is a sign that higher prices and borrowing costs have a negative impact on the housing market recovery .

    According to the report , the seasonally adjusted index of pending sales of existing homes fell last month by 0.6 % - to the level of 102.1 , reaching its lowest level in nearly a year . Economists forecast that the value of this indicator will increase by 2.2% , after falling 4.6 % in September ( was revised downward from 5.6% ) .

    Pound declined significantly against the dollar after a report showed that the number of mortgage approvals in the UK fell unexpectedly in October. According to the data , the number of mortgages approved for home purchase in October was 42,808 , compared with 43,182 in September. Economists forecast that the value of this index will rise to the level of 45200 .

    Nevertheless , it became known that the number of permits for house purchase increased by 33 percent compared to October last year. Note that this growth contributed to the government scheme " help with buying " as well as a mortgage program for those who are first-time buyers .

    Meanwhile, data showed that gross mortgage lending was 9.9 billion pounds ($ 16.060 billion ) in October , which was the highest level since December 2009 (when lending stood at £ 10 billion ) . We also recall that in September this indicator was at 9.7 billion pounds . In October last year the volume of lending was 7.5 billion pounds .

    In the British Bankers' Association also reported that bank lending to non-financial firms fell to 940 million pounds in October, which followed the growth of 2.234 billion pounds in September. This implies that the demand from firms and access to bank loans is impaired .

    The yen fell to a six-month low against the dollar after reaching an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program . Iran and "six" ( five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) on Sunday night during the next round of talks in Geneva have reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program ( INP) . Within six months, Iran " freeze " its nuclear program and halt construction of a reactor in Arak . Western countries , in turn, will remove economic sanctions against Tehran . After the deal with Iran , the market is a better attitude towards risk.

    Also this week, Statistics Bureau of Japan may report that consumer prices in the country rose in October by 0.9 % in annual terms , after rising 0.7 % the previous month . The acceleration of inflation will testify to the success of efforts to restore the Bank of Japan's economy. Today in Tokyo, Japan's deputy finance minister said that deflation in the country coming to an end and the economy starts recovering.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Pending Home Sales (MoM) , October -0.6% (forecast +2.2%)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.60, Y99.95, Y100.00, Y100.30, Y100.50, Y100.60, Y101.00, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y102.00, Y102.25

    EUR/JPY Y134.50

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3515, $1.3540, $1.3550, $1.3600

    AUD/USD $0.9150, $0.9200, $0.9250

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

    USD/CAD C$1.0500, C$1.0525, C$1.0560

  • 13:15

    European session: the euro declined significantly against the U.S. dollar

    Data

    4:00 Japan BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda speaks

    8:15 Switzerland Employed III m 4.17 4.19 4.19

    09:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA, th October 43.0 45.2 42.8


    Euro fell against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the comments of representatives of the ECB. Note that today, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer that interest rates should remain low for an extended period of time , and if necessary they can be further reduced , as officials try to ensure price stability in the euro area .

    "If regular monetary policy stops working , in order to achieve price stability, the central bank must " invent " policy" , - said Noyer , suggesting that after a sudden deceleration of inflation , the ECB leaves all options open.

    "We see a risk that inflation will remain low for some time . We will keep interest rates low for an extended period of time , or even lower , if it is necessary for price stability , " Noyer said .

    Meanwhile, ECB executive board member Benoit Ker said that at the moment disinflation in Europe is likely to continue , but will not progress to deflation , because the economy recovers , and inflation expectations remain at around 2 percent. Ker said that the European economy is stabilizing and strengthening the banking sector , but policymakers need to make progress in structural reforms to reduce unemployment and stimulate business investment .

    It should also be noted that many market participants are waiting for the publication of data on the U.S. housing market and the index of manufacturing activity Dallas Fed . Experts expect that the number of pending home sales rose 2.2 percent in October after rising 5.5 percent the previous month.

    Pound declined significantly against the dollar , as the report showed that the number of mortgage approvals in the UK fell unexpectedly in October. According to the data , the number of mortgages approved for home purchase in October was 42,808 , compared with 43,182 in September. Economists forecast that the value of this index will rise to the level of 45200 .

    Nevertheless , it became known that the number of permits for house purchase increased by 33 percent compared to October last year. Note that this growth contributed to the government scheme " help with buying " as well as a mortgage program for those who are first-time buyers .

    Meanwhile, data showed that gross mortgage lending was 9.9 billion pounds ($ 16.060 billion ) in October , which was the highest level since December 2009 (when lending stood at £ 10 billion ) . We also recall that in September this indicator was at 9.7 billion pounds . In October last year the volume of lending was 7.5 billion pounds .

    In the British Bankers' Association also reported that bank lending to non-financial firms fell to 940 million pounds in October, which followed the growth of 2.234 billion pounds in September. This implies that the demand from firms and access to bank loans is impaired .

    The yen fell to a six-month low against the dollar after reaching an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program . Iran and "six" ( five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) on Sunday night during the next round of talks in Geneva have reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program ( INP) . Within six months, Iran " freeze " its nuclear program and halt construction of a reactor in Arak . Western countries , in turn, will remove economic sanctions against Tehran . After the deal with Iran , the market is a better attitude towards risk.

    Also this week, Statistics Bureau of Japan may report that consumer prices in the country rose in October by 0.9 % in annual terms , after rising 0.7 % the previous month . The acceleration of inflation will testify to the success of efforts to restore the Bank of Japan's economy. Today in Tokyo, Japan's deputy finance minister said that deflation in the country coming to an end and the economy starts recovering.

    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3506

    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6182

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.93, then decreased slightly


    At 15:00 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of pending home sales in October. At 16:30 GMT SNB head Thomas Jordan will deliver a speech . At 23:50 GMT the meeting minutes will be published on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy .

  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3650, $1.3620/30, $1.3585-600, $1.3560

    Bids $1.3510/00, $1.3485/80, $1.3455/45, $1.3420


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6320/30, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6250/60, $1.6241

    Bids $1.6180/70, $1.6155/50, $1.6125/20, $1.6105/00, $1.6072


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9300, $0.9240/50, $0.9220, $0.9200, $0.9160

    Bids $0.9100, $0.9080, $0.9050, $0.9000


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8440, stg0.8430, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400, stg0.8380/85, stg0.8366

    Bids stg0.8341, stg0.8340, stg0.8333, stg0.8300


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y138.80, Y138.50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.99

    Bids Y137.00, Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.80


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.50, Y102.25, Y102.00, Y101.92

    Bids Y101.60/50, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50


  • 10:30

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.60, Y99.95, Y100.00, Y100.30, Y100.50, Y100.60, Y101.00, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y102.00, Y102.25

    EUR/JPY Y134.50

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3515, $1.3540, $1.3550, $1.3600

    AUD/USD $0.9150, $0.9200, $0.9250

    AUD/JPY Y94.00

    USD/CAD C$1.0500, C$1.0525, C$1.0560

  • 09:30

    United Kingdom: BBA Mortgage Approvals, October 42.8 (forecast 45.2)

  • 08:16

    Switzerland: Employment Level, Quarter III 4.19 (forecast 4.19)

  • 07:02

    Asian session: The yen touched the weakest in almost six months


    04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks


    The yen touched the weakest in almost six months as demand for the safety of the Japanese currency waned and Asian stocks gained after an accord was struck to set limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear activities and in return won an easing of “certain sanctions” on oil, auto parts, gold and precious metals. The deal, which is reversible, was announced yesterday after five days of talks in Geneva.

    The yen traded near a four-year low against the euro before a report this week that may show Japan’s inflation accelerated in October to the fastest pace since 2008. Japan’s statistics bureau may say on Nov. 29 the nation’s consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.9 percent last month from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Bank of Japan said in April it wanted to achieve 2 percent inflation in about two years. Deflation is coming to an end in Japan and the nation’s economy overall is recovering as expected, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, vice minister of finance for international affairs said at forum in Tokyo today.

    The dollar strengthened versus most of its 16 major peers before data that may indicate pending home sales rebounded last month. In the U.S., pending home sales probably climbed 1.1 percent last month after falling 5.6 percent in September, a separate poll of analysts showed before today’s data is released by the National Association of Realtors today.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3535-60

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6240

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose above Y101.80


    BBA home loans data at 0930GMT provides the domestic interest this morning in an otherwise data light day.

  • 06:04

    Schedule for today, Monday, Nov 25’2013:

    04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

    08:15 Switzerland Employment Level Quarter III 4.17 4.19

    09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals October 43.0 45.2

    15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) October -5.6% +2.2%

    16:30 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

    21:15 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

    22:15 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

    23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y October +0.7% +0.9%

    23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


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