The euro exchange rate has continued to rise against the dollar, after long hesitation near session highs. Note that helps to strengthen the currency risk and the desire for decent reports on Germany, which were presented during the European session .
Recall that the results of a survey of the Ifo Institute showed that the business climate index rose to 109.3 in November from 107.4 in October (Economists had forecast an increase to 107.9 ) , the current conditions index reached 112.2 in the month , compared from 111.3 in October (expected score was 111.5 ), while the expectations index rose to 106.3 from 103.7 in the previous month ( according to forecasts , the index would rise to 104).
Also today came the final data on GDP in Germany , which were in line with estimates. With adjustment for seasonality and calendar days of the gross domestic product grew by 0.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter , matching the preliminary estimate published earlier this month. It was much weaker than the 0.7 percent growth recorded in the second quarter. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.6 percent year on year , after rising 0.5 percent in the second quarter. With the price adjusted GDP grew by 1.1 per cent per annum. The statistical office said that the positive contributions came mainly from domestic demand, in particular investment in fixed assets. At the same time, the export and import of balance pressure exerted on growth.
The Swiss franc has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar, which was caused by the comments of the SNB board member Fritz Zurbrugga . He said that the SNB will maintain the ceiling of the franc , as the global economic recovery remains weak. "In the foreseeable future, the minimum rate will remain an essential tool . Monetary policy we have pursued to this day , continues to operate without any restrictions. Frank is still 10 percent above its long-term average level , trade- weighted and adjusted for inflation, " - he said.
Zurbrugga reiterated that the central bank is ready to provide a minimum rate by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, if this will be necessary , and to take additional steps as needed . "
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar, after it was reported that retail sales in Canada rose more than expected , while consumer price inflation fell short of forecasts.
The data showed that retail sales rose by 1% in the month of September compared to the previous month and amounted to 40730 million Canadian dollars ($ 39.14 billion ) . The result was far ahead of market expectations at 0.3 %.
Except for the automotive sector retail sales were unchanged compared with the previous month and amounted to 31010 million Canadian dollars.
Compared to the same period of the previous year the retail sales rose by 3.6 %.
Meanwhile, another report showed that the consumer price index in October rose by 0.7 % compared to last year , slightly below market expectations of 0.8 % growth . And less increase in September at 1.1%.
Core CPI , which excludes volatile components such as food and energy , rose 1.2 %, in line with market expectations . On a monthly measurement of inflation fell to 0.2%, while core inflation rose by 0.2 %.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index in Canada fell by 0.1 % in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1 % increase the previous month.
USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.50,Y100.00, Y100.60, Y100.65, Y100.50, Y101.00, Y101.10
EUR/JPY Y135.00, Y136.00
EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3475, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3650
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6150
EUR/GBP stg0.8325, stg0.8425
AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9250, $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9340, $0.9350
NZD/USD $0.8300
USD/CAD C$1.0425, C$1.0430, C$1.0500, C$1.0525, C$1.0555, C$1.0560, C$1.0575, C$1.0585
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter III +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%
07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter III +1.1% +1.1% +1.1%
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate November 107.4 107.9 109.3
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment November 111.3 111.5 112.2
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations November 103.6 104.0 106.3
The euro rose against the dollar after the publication of strong data on German business confidence from the institute Ifo. Business climate index rose to 109.3 in November from 107.4 in October. Economists had forecast an increase to 107.9 . The current conditions index reached 112.2 in the month , compared to 111.3 in October. The expected score was 111.5 . The expectations index rose to 106.3 from 103.7 in the previous month . It is predicted that the index would rise to 104. Company's key production areas " definitely more optimistic " , predicting growth in exports , says the Ifo.
Also today came the final data on GDP in Germany , which were in line with estimates. With adjustment for seasonality and calendar days of the gross domestic product grew by 0.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter , matching the preliminary estimate published earlier this month. It was much weaker than the 0.7 percent growth recorded in the second quarter. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.6 percent year on year , after rising 0.5 percent in the second quarter. With the price adjusted GDP grew by 1.1 per cent per annum. The statistical office said that the positive contributions came mainly from domestic demand, in particular investment in fixed assets. At the same time, the export and import of balance pressure exerted on growth.
The yen fell to a four-month low against the dollar after the speech in the parliament , the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said he did not think the yen is "too weak." According to him , inflation in Japan will reach the target of 2% by the end of the two-year deadline set by the government for this purpose. He also said he was ready to do everything possible to limit the long-term growth rates. Recall that yesterday, the Bank of Japan , at the end of the next session , retained unchanged stance of monetary policy and assess the state of the economy.
Australian dollar continues to decline, and possibly fix the biggest weekly decline in seven years . The market fears that the country's Central Bank may impose foreign exchange intervention to weaken the currency. Yesterday, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the intervention is part of a " toolbox" of the central bank , although it refrained from leveling " scale " the weakening Australian dollar in recent years, because he was not fully convinced that the effectiveness of such measures outweigh the costs.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3539
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6217
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.28
In the second half of the day will present data on the consumer price index in Canada the U.S. in October ( in the 13:30 GMT). According to forecasts , the figure for the results of October is expected at 0.8 % , compared to 1.1 % last month .
Also attract the attention of the market performance of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve George Easter ( at 13:40 GMT)
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3650, $1.3620/30, $1.3585-600, $1.3530-50
Bids $1.3455/45, $1.3420, $1.3400/390, $1.3360/50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6320/30, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6250/60, $1.6215/25
Bids $1.6155/50, $1.6125/20, $1.6105/00
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9300, $0.9240/50, $0.9200
Bids $0.9150, $0.9100, $0.9080, $0.9050
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8440, stg0.8430, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400, stg0.8380/85, stg0.8354-66
Bids stg0.8300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y138.00, Y137.50, Y137.00
Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.80, Y135.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y102.50, Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.50
Bids Y100.80, Y100.50, Y100.00
EUR/JPY Y135.50, Y136.05, Y136.50, Y137.50
EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520/25, $1.3565, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6145, $1.6200
EUR/GBP stg0.8425
GBP/JPY Y161.00, Y162.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9020
EUR/CHF Chf1.2325
AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9350, $0.9360, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9440
AUD/JPY Y93.00, Y94.00, Y95.00
NZD/USD $0.8300
USD/CAD C$1.0450
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report November
The yen touched a four-month low as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he’ll do his utmost to restrict a rise in long-term yields. The yen isn’t “excessively weak” Kuroda said in parliament today in Tokyo. Inflation will hit the BOJ’s 2 percent target in the latter half of the central bank’s two-year time frame and policy makers will adjust its bond-buying program as needed, he said. The BOJ yesterday kept its pledge to expand the monetary base by as much as 70 trillion yen ($693 billion) a year.
The euro reached a four-year high versus the yen before European Central Bank officials including President Mario Draghi speak today. The 17-nation currency rose yesterday after the ECB’s Draghi said policy makers haven’t changed their mind on a negative deposit rate since they cut the benchmark borrowing cost to a record on Nov. 7. He is scheduled to speak again today as are ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann and Executive Board member Peter Praet.
Australia’s dollar is set to match its longest run of weekly declines against the greenback in seven years amid concern the nation’s central bank will act to weaken the currency. Stevens said yesterday that the Aussie was above levels he’d expect in the medium-term and intervention can be effective as long as it’s “judiciously used in the right circumstances.”
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3460-85
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6175-00
USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y101.00-35
Friday is another full day on both sides of the Atlantic, with a solid mix of both data and central bank speakers. The European data calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, when the German detailed third quarter GDP data will be released. At 0830GMT, 0830/0330 ECB President Mario Draghi will give a speech to the EBC, in F'furt. There will probably be little new from Draghi following his speech in Berlin on Thursday. At 0900GMT, the main European data release crosses the wires, when the Nov IFO business climate index is set for release. At 0900GMT, the Italian Sept retail sales numbers will be released, with expectations of a 0.1% rise on month. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will deliver a speech to EBC, in Ffurt at 1045GMT. There is an extraordinary meeting of Eurogroup FinMins, set for midday GMT in Brussels. At the same time, German Chancellor Merkel and Greek PM Samaras will deliver a joint press conference, in Berlin. At 1400GMT, Belgium's Nov BNB business survey will cross the wires. At 1530GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will sit on a Paris panel discussing the financial future of Europe. Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on bank supervision at a Bank of France conference in Paris, starting at 1345GMT. In the US, the data calendar gets underway at 1500GMT, with the release of the September JOLTS, the October BLS State Unemployment numbers and the third quarter E-Commerce numbers. The November Kansas City Fed Production data will be released at 1600GMT. Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo will deliver a speech on shadow banking to Economic Policy Institute in Washington, starting at 1715GMT. The last US data will be released at 2000GMT, when the November Treasury Allotments numbers will be published.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3480 +0,30%
GBP/USD $1,6197 +0,57%
USD/CHF Chf0,9127 -0,75%
USD/JPY Y101,14 +1,11%
EUR/JPY Y136,35 +1,42%
GBP/JPY Y163,82 +1,69%
AUD/USD $0,9232 -1,08%
NZD/USD $0,8204 -0,82%
USD/CAD C$1,0516 +0,63%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report November
07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter III +0.3% +0.3%
07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter III +1.1% +1.1%
09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate November 107.4 107.9
09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment November 111.3 111.5
09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations November 103.6 104.0
13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m September +0.5% +0.5%
13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m September +0.4% +0.4%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m October +0.2% +0.2%
13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y October +1.1% +0.8%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m October +0.2% 0.0%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y October +1.3% +1.2%
13:40 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks
14:00 Belgium Business Climate November -7.7 -6.9
15:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings September 3883