Notícias do Mercado

21 novembro 2013
  • 19:20

    American focus : the dollar fell against the euro

    The euro rose against the dollar against the publication of indicators of PMI for the euro area . Note that in Germany, business results exceeded forecasts , and in France and the eurozone disappointed investors . According to preliminary estimates Markit, a composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) euro zone in November fell to 51.5 from 51.9 in October. Although the indicator is above the threshold level of 50 indicates an increase in activity compared with the previous month , the rate of growth of activity were the weakest in three months.

    In Germany, the composite index of manufacturing rose to a ten-month high, while it is up to the level of 54.3 in November from 53.2 in October. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 29 -month high of 52.5 in November from 51.7 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 52.3 .

    But the main support for the euro had comments of the ECB . European Central Bank President Mario Draghi , who spoke today in Germany, declined to comment on the probability of introduction of negative interest rates on deposits .

    " This idea was discussed at the last meeting on monetary policy , but so far no news in this regard is not ," said Draghi . During a press conference earlier , he reported that the bank " technically ready " to lower interest rates to negative values ​​, if required by economic conditions .

    In addition, the head of the ECB noted that the recovery in the euro area continues but remains " weak, unstable and uncertain ," and until is achieved price stability , the stability of it , too, should not wait. "The risks to the economic outlook continues to be top-down ", - he added. Draghi also said that only the expense of monetary policy can not stabilize the situation in the eurozone and called on EU governments to make some concessions in the reform program .

    The British pound rose against the dollar, which has been associated with the publication of data by the Confederation of British Industry , under which it became known that the growth of British industrial orders and production in the last three months has reached its highest level since 1995.

    According to the survey of industrial trends , 36 percent of companies said that their total order book was above normal, and 25 percent said it was lower , which makes the balance of 11 per cent. It was the highest level since March 1995 .

    Similarly , the balance of industrial production was 24 per cent in the three months to November and grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 . Companies expect that production growth will continue at the same pace over the next three months. About 44 percent expect an increase in output and 20 percent forecast a decline , resulting in a balance amounted to 24 percent.

    Stephen Gifford , director of economics CBI, said: " This new evidence shows encouraging signs of widening and deepening of recovery in the manufacturing sector. " " Manufacturers finally felt the benefit from the growth of confidence and spending in the UK and around the world ," added Gifford .

    The Canadian dollar fell significantly against the U.S. dollar, which was in response to the output of positive U.S. data . One report showed that the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in six weeks , becoming the latest sign of improvement in the labor market. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits , a measure of layoffs, fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000 in the week ended November 16, the Labor Department said . Economists had forecast 333,000 initial claims . The value of the previous week was revised up to 344,000 from 339,000 , which was originally reported. Four-week moving average of claims , which smooths out the volatility of weekly data, fell to 338,500 .

    The positive was also a report on manufacturing activity . Preliminary results from Markit survey showed that in the U.S. November purchasing managers index rose to 54.3 , compared with the consensus forecast of 52.6 . In October, the index was at 51.8 .

    The latter value is the highest since March. Component production rose to a maximum of nine months. But at the same time, the data showed that hiring has slowed. The three-month average , which gives an idea of ​​the main trend , was 52.9 , being " in accordance with the current moderate improvement of the working environment ."

  • 15:00

    Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, November -15.4 (forecast -14.0)

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, November 6.5 (forecast 15.1)

  • 13:59

    U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, November 54.3 (forecast 52.6)

  • 13:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/JPY Y135.50, Y136.05, Y136.50, Y137.50

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520/25, $1.3565, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6145, $1.6200

    EUR/GBP stg0.8425

    GBP/JPY Y161.00, Y162.00

    USD/CHF Chf0.9020

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2325

    AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9350, $0.9360, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9440

    AUD/JPY Y93.00, Y94.00, Y95.00

    NZD/USD $0.8300

    USD/CAD C$1.0450

  • 13:30

    U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, November 323 (forecast 333)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI, m/m, October -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, October +0.2% (forecast +0.2%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI, y/y, October +0.3% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 13:30

    U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, October +1.4% (forecast +1.3%)

  • 13:19

    European session: the euro rose

    07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance October 2.49 2.45 2.42

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    07:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 49.1 49.6 47.8

    07:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) November 50.9 51.3 48.8

    08:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 51.7 52.3 52.5

    08:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) November 52.9 53.1 54.5

    08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 51.3 51.6 51.5

    08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) November 51.6 51.9 50.9

    09:05 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

    09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln October 9.4 10.1 6.4

    10:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

    11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance November -4 0 11

    The euro rose against the dollar after the publication of mixed euro zone PMI figures . In Germany, business results exceeded forecasts , and in France and the eurozone disappointed investors . The rate of growth of business activity in the euro area in November continued to slow. They cast doubt on the fact that the eurozone economy will pick up speed in the 4th quarter after the 3rd quarter of its nascent recovery has stalled .

    The deterioration of the survey data was due to a clear decrease in the activity of companies in France , the second largest economy in the eurozone. This decline in activity , suggesting that France could fall back into recession. Increased activity perked up in Germany, the largest economy of the block.

    According to preliminary estimates Markit, a composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) euro zone in November fell to 51.5 from 51.9 in October. Although the indicator is above the threshold level of 50 indicates an increase in activity compared with the previous month , the rate of growth of activity were the weakest in three months.

    The volume of new orders is gradually increasing , promising support for the activity in the coming months. However , employment fell 23rd consecutive month. This suggests that the record high for the euro zone unemployment rate - one of the main challenges for governments trying to generate economic growth and an end to the protracted debt crisis - in the near future will not fall quickly .

    In Germany, the composite index of production, which measures business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector , rose to a ten- high 54.3 in November from 53.2 in October. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index , a measure of productivity in the industrial sector of the country rose to 29 -month high of 52.5 in November from 51.7 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 52.3 . The index of manufacturing activity in manufacturing industry amounted to 54 in November from 53.6 in October. The index of activity in the service sector rose to a nine-month high of 54.5 from the 52.9 reading in October . It is predicted that the index would rise to 53.1 .

    The state of the French economy has worsened in November on weaker activity in the private sector , which declined the most significant pace in five months. According to Markit, preliminary composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.5 in France in November.

    Also supporting the euro have comments of the ECB . Draghi calmed markets after appearing on Wednesday reported that the central bank began to seriously think about the possibility of negative interest rates on deposits. The ECB President said that the regulator discussed this possibility at the last meeting , but no more. Recall that on Wednesday couple ervo / dollar fell from about 1.3540 to 1.3470 on news that the ECB is considering negative interest rates on deposits.

    The British pound rose against the dollar after the publication of the Confederation of British Industry that the growth of British industrial orders and production in the last three months has reached its highest level since 1995.

    According to the survey of industrial trends , 36 percent of companies said that their total order book was above normal, and 25 percent said it was lower , which makes the balance of 11 per cent. It was the highest level since March 1995 .

    Similarly , the balance of industrial production was 24 per cent in the three months to November and grew at the fastest pace since January 1995 . Companies expect that production growth will continue at the same pace over the next three months. About 44 percent expect an increase in output and 20 percent forecast a decline , resulting in a balance amounted to 24 percent.

    Stephen Gifford , director of economics CBI, said: " This new evidence shows encouraging signs of widening and deepening of recovery in the manufacturing sector. " " Manufacturers finally felt the benefit from the growth of confidence and spending in the UK and around the world ," added Gifford .

    The yen fell to a two-month low against the dollar after the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan. Central Bank has kept its refinancing rate and the asset purchase program unchanged , as expected . The decision was unanimous. The regulator also has not changed the outlook on the economy, which, according to the Central Bank, and gradually recovering moderately , while exports gaining momentum. The Bank of Japan has confirmed the promise to achieve the expansion of the monetary base by 60-70 trillion . yen ( 600-700 billion dollars) a year .


    EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3377


    GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6137

    USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y100.93


  • 13:00

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3540/50, $1.3520, $1.3500, $1.3460-80

    Bids $1.3400/390, $1.3360/50, $1.3320-00


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6200/10, $1.6180, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25

    Bids $1.6050/45, $1.6030, $1.6015/00


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9350, $0.9290/00

    Bids $0.9250, $0.9200, $0.9150


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8440, stg0.8430, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8395/400, stg0.8380/85, stg0.8360/70

    Bids stg0.8325/20, stg0.8300


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.80

    Bids Y135.05/00, Y134.70/60,Y134.20/00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.00

    Bids Y100.50/40, Y100.00, Y99.50, Y99.40/20


  • 12:45

    U.K. manufacturing order, production strongest since 1995: CBI

    Growth in British manufacturing orders and production over the last three months reached the highest since 1995, survey data from the Confederation of British Industry showed Thursday.

    According to the Industrial Trends Survey, 36 percent of firms said their total order books were above normal and 25 percent said they were below, giving a balance of 11 percent. It was the highest since March 1995.

    Similarly, at 29 percent, the balance for output in the three months to November rose at its fastest rate since January 1995.

    Firms expect output growth to continue at a similar pace in the next three months. About 44 percent expect to raise output and 20 percent forecast a decline, resulting a balance of +24 percent.

    Stephen Gifford, CBI Director of Economics said, "This new evidence shows encouraging signs of a broadening and deepening recovery in the manufacturing sector."

    "Manufacturers finally seem to be feeling the benefit of growing confidence and spending within the UK and globally," Gifford added.

  • 11:00

    United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, November 11

  • 10:50

    Eurozone private sector growth slows for second month

    Growth of Eurozone's private sector business activity moderated for a second month running in November, flash results of a survey by Markit Economics revealed Thursday.

    The composite output index, that measures business activity across both manufacturing and service sectors, fell to a three-month low of 51.5 in November from 51.9 in October.

    Economists had forecast an increase to 52. Though the index remained above the 50 no-change level for a fifth successive month in November, the reading signaled a modest easing in the rate of expansion for the second month running, Markit said.

    The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, a gauge of the region's factory sector performance, increased to a 29-month high of 51.5 from 51.3 in October. The outcome was in line with expectations.

    The services activity index, on the other hand, fell to a three-month low of 50.9 in November from 51.6 in October. The consensus was for a marginal increase to 51.9.

  • 10:20

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/JPY Y135.50, Y136.05, Y136.50, Y137.50

    EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520/25, $1.3565, $1.3600

    GBP/USD $1.5900, $1.6145, $1.6200

    EUR/GBP stg0.8425

    GBP/JPY Y161.00, Y162.00

    USD/CHF Chf0.9020

    EUR/CHF Chf1.2325

  • 09:32

    United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, October 6.4 (forecast 10.1)

  • 08:58

    Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, November 51.5 (forecast 51.6)

  • 08:58

    Eurozone: Services PMI, November 50.9 (forecast 51.9)

  • 08:29

    Germany: Services PMI, November 54.5 (forecast 53.1)

  • 08:28

    Germany: Manufacturing PMI, November 52.5 (forecast 52.3)

  • 07:58

    France: Manufacturing PMI, November 47.8 (forecast 49.6)

  • 07:58

    France: Services PMI, November 48.8 (forecast 51.3)

  • 07:23

    Asian session: The yen was the biggest loser

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 50.9 50.9 50.4

    03:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

    03:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

    03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement


    The yen was the biggest loser after the won among the greenback’s major peers after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged as it maintains efforts to spur 2 percent inflation, while Federal Reserve meeting minutes signaled a reduction in monetary easing “in coming months.” Japan’s central bank kept its pledge to expand the monetary base by as much as 70 trillion yen ($697 billion) a year at today’s meeting, in line with economist forecasts in a Bloomberg News poll. Nineteen of those surveyed said the BOJ will add stimulus in the second quarter of next year after a planned increase in the nation’s sales tax, with seven saying it will ease in the July-September period.

    In the U.S., minutes of the Fed’s Oct. 29-30 meeting released yesterday showed policy makers “generally expected” improvement in employment data that would “warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months.” The U.S. central bank buys $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities a month.

    The euro declined as investors weigh the possibility of stimulus from the European Central Bank before President Mario Draghi speaks. Two people with knowledge of the debate said the ECB is considering a negative deposit rate. Policy makers would reduce the rate for commercial lenders who park excess cash at the central bank to minus 0.1 percent from zero, said the people who asked not to be identified because the talks aren’t public.

    Australia’s dollar fell after a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped. In China, the preliminary 50.4 reading in November for a Purchasing Managers’ Index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a 50.8 median estimate from analysts. The final number for October was 50.9, and levels above 50 indicate expansion.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3415

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6070

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y100.50


    The UK calendar sees a slew of data at 0930GMT, with the release of the Oct BOE Capital Issuance data, the Oct public finances and the October SMMT Auto Production Figures. UK, at 1100GMT, the Nov CBI Industrial Trends Survey data will be published. The data provide an early indication of how the factory sector performed ahead of the more market-moving manufacturing PMI which is due on December 2. Analysts are looking for a reading of +1, up from -4 in Oct.

  • 07:00

    Switzerland: Trade Balance, October 2.42 (forecast 2.45)

  • 06:22

    Currencies. Daily history for Nov 20'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3440 -0,72%

    GBP/USD $1,6104 -0,09%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9195 +0,95%

    USD/JPY Y100,02 -0,10%

    EUR/JPY Y134,41 -0,85%

    GBP/JPY Y161,05 -0,20%

    AUD/USD $0,9332 -1,08%

    NZD/USD $0,8271 -1,20%

    USD/CAD C$1,0450 -0,17%

  • 06:00

    Schedule for today, Thursday, Nov 22’2013:

    01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 50.9 50.9

    03:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

    03:30 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

    03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

    07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance October 2.49 2.45

    07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

    07:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 49.1 49.6

    07:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) November 50.9 51.3

    08:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 51.7 52.3

    08:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) November 52.9 53.1

    08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 51.3 51.6

    08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) November 51.6 51.9

    09:05 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

    09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln October 9.4 10.1

    10:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

    11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance November -4 0

    13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m October -0.1% -0.1%

    13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y October +0.3% +0.3%

    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m October +0.1% +0.2%

    13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October +1.2% +1.3%

    13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims November 339 333

    14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) November 51.8 52.6

    14:45 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

    15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence November -14.5 14.0

    15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey November 19.8 15.1

    16:00 Eurozone ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks

    17:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Fritz Zurbrugg Speaks

    18:00 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

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