The euro exchange rate has fallen against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the resumption of speculation about the negative ECB . The market continues to speculation that the ECB is considering introducing negative interest rates on deposits. It is expected that this measure provides for the reduction of deposit rates from 0% to -0.1 %, which is to force commercial banks to actively lend to companies and households , as the matter remains ill for the region. Speculation intensified in connection with conducting a mid-week meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt.
Earlier this month, the ECB M. Draghi said that the bank is ready for the new measures , if required by the economic outlook . The ECB has lowered this month refinancing rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.25 % in a deflationary pressures and rising unemployment .
Inflation figures for October, significantly fell short of expectations , reaching only 0.7 %. Meanwhile, the region's economy grew last quarter by only 0.1 % , while the unemployment rate was 12.2 %.
The dollar also had statements from the President Federal Reserve Bank of New York , William Dudley , who said that despite the severe fiscal difficulties this year , the U.S. economy was able to continue the recovery and looks set to grow at a faster pace.
"The fact that the U.S. economy has continued to grow, and GDP growth was about 2% in 2013, despite the relatively strong fiscal brake , argues that the private sector of the economy as a whole finished restoring , and now his level of activity will increase," - Dudley said .
He pointed to the labor market report for October, which witnessed the growth of jobs and overall economic growth , which according to the first estimate , in the 3rd quarter was 2.8 %.
Note that the important words of the president have also been Fed -Saint- Louis , James Bullard , who said that the folding of the central bank's program of quantitative easing " to be discussed " at the meeting, which will take place in December , and that the next strong data on the labor market will increase the chances of early folding. In an interview on Bloomberg TV Bullard said that recent economic data " look a little better," along with the growth of GDP, but it will depend on the steadiness of the labor market.
The pound was down against the U.S. dollar, losing the all previously earned the position , due to the publication of minutes of the Fed's expectations . Note that investors will get a grasp of a lot of attention in the minutes , trying to find in them the answer to the question of whether to wait for coagulation of quantitative easing as early as this year. Although Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the low rates could persist for a long time after the purchase of the assets will be discontinued , immediate prospects for QE3 concern of market participants around the world. Bernanke also said that since the beginning of the program of bond purchases by the central bank , the labor market showed " significant improvements " and that the rate of increase in interest rates will likely remain low for an extended period of time after the completion of the purchase . The Fed chief said that "the last FOMC decision came as a surprise to some market participants , but it strengthened the authority of the Committee. The politician added that the decline in interest rates since September, is the result of future policy. Bernanke made it clear that his views are similar to the opinion of the deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen , which she expressed at the hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on November 14.
However, surprises from the protocol probably not worth waiting for , even in spite of the fact that the participants in the recent times seems to have forgotten all about the folding of incentive programs .
The Swiss franc declined significantly against the U.S. dollar , in response , so that the positive statistics on the United States. It is learned that retail sales rose in October on the back of sustained growth of car purchases . But the weakness in key categories suggests that consumers are cautious in their spending in anticipation of the holiday shopping season . Sales of the country's retailers rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% compared with September , after a zero change in the previous month , the Commerce Department said on Wednesday . But with the exception of a strong automotive sector , sales increased by only 0.2 %, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month . Economists had predicted that total retail sales will grow by 0.1 %, while sales excluding autos to rise 0.2 %. Total retail sales rose by 3.9 % compared with a year ago. Excluding autos and auto parts sales rose by 2.4 % compared with a year ago.
Economic confidence in Switzerland increased for the fifth consecutive month in November, continuing the upward trend seen in recent months, data from a monthly survey conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and Credit Suisse (CS) showed Wednesday.
The ZEW-CS Indicator of economic expectations climbed to 31.6 points in November from 24.9 points in October, which was the highest reading in three years. The indicator reflects expectations of surveyed financial market experts regarding economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.
In November, 41.4 percent of the surveyed experts said they expect Switzerland's economic conditions to improve in the next six months, which is 10.2 percentage points higher than in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the share of analysts who were upbeat about the country's current economic situation decreased by 12 percentage points during the month.
With regard to the Eurozone, the majority of the respondents said they expect an improvement in economic activity in the bloc in the coming months, data showed.
USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.30, Y99.50, Y99.90, Y100.00, Y100.50, Y101.30
EUR/JPY Y134.40, Y134.75, Y135.00, Y135.05, Y135.25
EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3455, $1.3465, $1.3500, $1.3515, $1.3530, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/CHF Chf1.2365
AUD/USD $0.9295, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9450
AUD/JPY Y95.00
CAD/JPY Y94.50
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) October +0.3% +0.1% -0.2%
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) October -0.5% -0.6% -0.7%
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes November
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) November 24.9 30.0 31.6
Euro fell against the dollar on the comments of the representative of the ECB Weidmann , who said that the ECB is not yet technically ready to wrap up emergency measures . However, Weidmann bit offset this statement , saying that despite the fact that the moderate inflation outlook justifies expansionist policy , it is unwise to soften it further after November's decline.
Furthermore, the pressure on the single currency price data bit manufacturers in Germany. The index of producer prices in industry in Germany fell by 0.7 percent year on year in October, following a 0.5 percent drop in September. Prices fell for the third month in succession. Economists had forecast a slower decline of 0.6 percent in October.
On the overall index was influenced by the 1.9- percent drop in the prices of intermediate goods, and exactly the same reduction in energy costs. Meanwhile , the price of capital goods rose by 0.7 percent compared to October 2012 , and consumer prices rose by 1.8 percent.
The producer price index fell by 0.2 percent compared to September , when it showed 0.3 percent growth. The index according to the expectations of economists was to grow by 0.1 percent in the month dimension.
The British pound rose against the dollar and the euro after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England. MPC Minutes from November 6-7, showed that the committee voted unanimously for having to leave the rate by 0.5 % and the asset purchase program at £ 375 billion As the protocol MPC noted the steady recovery in economic activity in Britain and has predicted that the economy continue to grow above the long-term average in Q2 . GDP forecast , however, may be subject to upside risks (increase confidence and improve conditions in the lending sector ), and the downside risks (the process of restoring the balance and slow income growth ) .
MPC noted the still unstable growth of the European economy , which could damage the British economy , and suggested that " as the external situation is unlikely to stimulate growth in the UK and in view of fiscal consolidation in the country, we will keep growth forecast for the current level. Important role for economy in the medium -term recovery play household spending amid rising business costs. " Despite the recent rise in inflation expectations, the MPC believes that they are restrained in the medium term , because at the moment they do not play a big role in the demands on wages .
The U.S. dollar fell against the yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the basic interest rate of the central bank is likely to remain near zero for another " long time " after the purchase of assets, and after the unemployment rate will fall less than 6.5 %. Bernanke made it clear that his views are similar to the opinion of the deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen , which she expressed at the hearing of the Senate Banking Committee on November 14. "I agree with the sentiments expressed by my colleague Janet Yellen last week that the surest path to a normal approach to monetary policy , that is, we need to promote more rapid recovery ," - he said.
Also, the dynamics of the dollar today will affect the published data from the U.S. Department of Commerce . According to the median forecast of economists , the volume of retail sales in the world's largest economy is likely to grow in October by 0.1 % , after a 0.1 % decline in the previous month .
The yen has suspended its decline after the release of data on the trade balance of the country. In October, the trade deficit Japan rose more than analysts had expected. Imports grew at the fastest pace since 2010 , and was outweighed exports . The deficit amounted to 1.09 trillion . yen ( 10.9 billion dollars). Imports increased by 26.1 % compared with a year earlier, while exports gained 18.6%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3516
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6160
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.78
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3690/700, $1.3660/65, $1.3650, $1.3620/30, $1.3585-600
Bids $1.3480/70, $1.3450
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6200/10, $1.6180, $1.6160/65
Bids $1.6085/80, $1.6050/45, $1.6030, $1.6015/00
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9500, $0.9480, $0.9450, $0.9425/30
Bids $0.9350, $0.9325/20, $0.9300, $0.9250
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8500, stg0.8475/80, stg0.8440, stg0.8430, stg0.8415/20
Bids stg0.8340, stg0.8325/20, stg0.8300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.60/70
Bids Y135.00, Y134.80/75, Y134.50, Y134.20/00
USD/JPY
Offers Y100.80, Y100.50
Bids Y99.80, Y99.50, Y99.40/20, Y99.00
Japan's all industry activity increased for a third consecutive month in September, data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Wednesday.
The all industry activity index rose 0.4 percent month-on-month in September, after a 0.3 percent rise in August. The outcome was in line with expectations.
Industrial production gained 1.3 percent on a monthly basis, recovering from a 0.9 percent drop in August. Construction output grew 1.4 percent and the indices of government services rose 0.4 percent.
At the same
time, the indicator for tertiary industry activity fell 0.2 percent
month-on-month.
On a
year-on-year basis, the all industry activity index increased 2.2 percent in
September following a 0.9 percent rise in the previous month.
Germany's producer prices declined for the third successive month in October, and at a faster pace than expected by economics, latest data showed Wednesday.
The industrial producer price index decreased 0.7 percent on an annual basis in October, following the 0.5 percent drop seen in September, the Federal Statistical Office said. Prices have fallen for the third month in a row. Economist had forecast a slower decline of 0.6 percent for October.
The headline index was influenced by a 1.9 percent drop in prices of intermediate goods, and a similar contraction in energy costs. Meanwhile, capital goods prices increased 0.7 percent from October 2012, and consumer goods prices moved up by 1.8 percent.
The producer price index decreased 0.2 percent compared to September, when they recorded a 0.3 percent rise. The index was expected to stay unchanged month-on-month.
USD/JPY Y99.00, Y99.30, Y99.50, Y99.90, Y100.00, Y100.50, Y101.30
EUR/JPY Y134.40, Y134.75, Y135.00, Y135.05, Y135.25
EUR/USD $1.3400, $1.3455, $1.3465, $1.3500, $1.3515, $1.3530, $1.3600
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/CHF Chf1.2365
AUD/USD $0.9295, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9450
AUD/JPY Y95.00
CAD/JPY Y94.50
00:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
00:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m September +0.3% +0.5% +0.4%
The dollar fell versus the euro and yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s main interest rate will probably remain near zero for a “considerable time” after asset purchases end. The labor market has shown “meaningful improvement” since the Fed’s bond-buying program started, Bernanke said in remarks prepared for a speech to economists in Washington. A “preponderance of data” would be needed to begin removing accommodation, he said. Benchmark interest rates may remain low “perhaps well after” the jobless rate falls below the Fed’s 6.5 percent threshold, he said.
The Commerce Department will probably say today that retail sales in the world’s biggest economy increased 0.1 percent in October after a 0.1 percent decline the previous month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A separate report is projected to show consumer prices stagnated in October from the previous month, after rising 0.2 percent in September.
The yen briefly extended declines after data today showed growth in imports outstripped exports in October, leaving a trade deficit of 1.09 trillion yen ($10.9 billion), more than all 28 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Imports climbed 26.1 percent from a year earlier, while exports gained 18.6 percent.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3580
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose $ 1.6145
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to the level of Y99.95
BOE Minutes at 0930GMT the morning focus.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3537 +0,24%
GBP/USD $1,6119 +0,07%
USD/CHF Chf0,9108 -0,21%
USD/JPY Y100,12 +0,13%
EUR/JPY Y135,55 +0,38%
GBP/JPY Y161,38 +0,21%
AUD/USD $0,9433 +0,60%
NZD/USD $0,8370 +0,43%
USD/CAD C$1,0468 +0,39%
00:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
00:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m September +0.3% +0.5%
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) October +0.3% +0.1%
07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) October -0.5% -0.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes November
10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) November 24.9 30.0
10:20 United Kingdom BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale Speaks
13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m September +0.5% +0.4%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales October -0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto October +0.4% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m October +0.2% 0.0%
13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y October +1.2% +1.0%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m October +0.1% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y October +1.7% +1.7%
15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales October 5.29 5.21
15:00 U.S. Business inventories September +0.3% +0.4%
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November +2.6
17:10 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks
18:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Weale Speaks
19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes
21:15 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks
21:15 Canada Gov Council Member Macklem Speaks