Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in June, following an increase in May. The Index now stands at 126.4 (1985=100), down from 128.8 in May. The Present Situation Index was relatively flat, 161.1 versus 161.2 last month, while the Expectations Index declined from 107.2 last month to 103.2 this month.

"Consumer confidence declined in June after improving in May," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions was relatively unchanged, suggesting that the level of economic growth remains strong. While expectations remain high by historical standards, the modest curtailment in optimism suggests that consumers do not foresee the economy gaining much momentum in the months ahead."

Fifth District manufacturing continued to expand in June, according to results of the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite manufacturing index rose from 16 in May to 20 in June, buoyed by an increase in all three components (shipments, new orders, and employment). Firms also saw an increase in backlog of orders, as the index rose to its highest value of this year. Respondents were optimistic in June, expecting growth to continue across most indicators.

The S&P house price index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in April, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2%, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% year-over-year gain, down from 6.7% in the previous month. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continue to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.

In April, Seattle led the way with a 13.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.7% increase and San Francisco with a 10.9% increase. Nine of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending April 2018 versus the year ending March 2018. The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Seattle and Las Vegas.

The dollar has been rising in recent days as trade war concerns re-emerged, helped partly by the U.S. currency's safe-haven status. However, ING says the dollar's role "as a safe-haven currency should not be overstated given its large negative net international investment position." Against the current account surplus currencies, such as the euro and the Japanese yen, the dollar should fall in risk-off scenarios like this and if there is a sustained move lower in global markets, says ING. "The euro may have been pro-cyclical in recent months...but if things were to get worse, we'd expect the euro to revert back to being a safe-haven," the Dutch bank says. WSJ source.

Early this year Harley-Davidson said they would move much of their plant operations in Kansas City to Thailand. That was long before Tariffs were announced. Hence, they were just using Tariffs/Trade War as an excuse. Shows how unbalanced & unfair trade is, but we will fix it.....

• 'Bigger Error' Would Be to Underestimate That Rise

• 'Significant' Risk Inflation Stays Above Target

The EUR/USD slips back below 1.17 after topping that level earlier. Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea, expects it could fall back toward 1.15 in the coming days and weeks given the European Central Bank recently flagged interest rates wouldn't rise until at least next summer. Eurozone inflation looks unlikely to pick up sufficiently to spur a quicker raising of rates, while U.S. data remain strong and the U.S. Federal Reserve has signal led rates will rise, he says. Still, the euro's decline may be limited, as data point to speculators being close to finishing liquidating previous long euro positions, he adds. Citing WSJ

The number of mortgage approvals by the main high street banks in May has also risen, increasing by 3 per cent compared to the same month a year earlier. As in April, increased approval numbers were driven by remortgaging, some 18 per cent more than a year earlier. In contrast, approvals for house purchase were 3.8 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier.

Credit card spending was 2.3 per cent higher than a year earlier, with outstanding levels of card borrowing having grown by 5.7 per cent over the year. The total of 193 million credit card purchases in May was well above the previous 12 month average of 181 million, reflecting increased retail sales. Outstanding overdraft borrowing was 3.9 per cent lower compared to the same time last year.

Personal deposits grew by 1.6 per cent in the last 12 months, although this was a lower annual rate than seen historically. Deposits held in instant access accounts were 4.4 per cent higher than a year earlier.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1832 (3163)

$1.1803 (1094)

$1.1785 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1695

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1625 (2650)

$1.1583 (2740)

$1.1539 (4551)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 101055 contracts (according to data from June, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4627);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3409 (728)

$1.3367 (210)

$1.3339 (163)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3266

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3212 (2498)

$1.3175 (2140)

$1.3134 (1666)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 23180 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (2457);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 29296 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2498);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 25.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Surprised that Harley-Davidson, of all companies, would be the first to wave the White Flag. I fought hard for them and ultimately they will not pay tariffs selling into the E.U., which has hurt us badly on trade, down $151 Billion. Taxes just a Harley excuse - be patient!

Fitch Ratings: China's two recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts amid slowing economic growth and rising trade risks have prompted market speculation that a new cycle of monetary easing is underway, but Fitch Ratings believes it is too early to conclude recent policy actions mark a clear reversion in stance. A return to policy settings that add to the economy's imbalances and vulnerabilities, such as credit stimulus, nevertheless remains a risk and could put downward pressure on China's sovereign rating, as Fitch has previously stated.

The decision by the People's Bank of China over the weekend to implement another 50bp RRR cut across much of the banking sector follows a targeted 100bp cut in April. The latest cut will release around CNY700 billion in reserves, effective on 5 July, bringing the combined net reserve injection to CNY1.1 trillion this year. The government has stressed that funds released by the latest cut should be used to support implementation of the debt-to-equity swap programme and small and micro-sized enterprise lending.