In March 2018, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) increased by 0.4% on monthly basis and by 0.9% compared with March 2017 (it was +0.5% in February 2018).

In March, the recovery of inflation was due to several reasons. The main reason was the trend reversal of prices of Food including alcohol, driven by the acceleration of Processed food including alcohol (+2.5%, from +1.3% in February) and by the wide reduction of the decrease of Unprocessed food (-0.4% from -3.2%). Other contributions to the recovery of inflation came from Tobacco (+2.2% from +0.3% in February) and Services related to transport (+2.5%, from +1.9%).

In February 2018, households expenditure on goods soared (+2.4%) in volume, after a two-month decline (−1.9% in January and −1.2% in December). This recovery in consumption was mainly due to a rebound in heating expenses. Food purchases and clothing expenses were also on the rise.

Energy consumption surged (+8.9%), after a sharp decline in January (−6.4%). Heating expenses (gas and electricity) went up strongly, driven by cold waves that brought average temperatures in February more than two degrees below seasonal norms. This cold month followed the mildest January since 1900. Furthermore, refined product consumption rebounded (+1.6% after −3.5%), notably domestic heating oil.

Over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should accelerate in March 2018: +1.5% after +1.2% in the previous month, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month. This rise in the year-on-year inflation should result from an acceleration in prices of services, food products and tobacco. Energy prices should increase less markedly than in the previous month. On the other hand, the "manufactured product" prices should edge down in the wake of clothing and footwear prices.

Over one month, consumer prices should recover sharply: +1.0% after a stability in the previous month. This increase should come from a rebound in "manufactured product" prices after the end of winter sales and from a sharp rise in tobacco prices. Services prices should accelerate, as well as those of food because of fresh products. On the other hand, energy prices should be down this month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2402 (1532)

$1.2383 (2782)

$1.2359 (850)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2314

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2276 (5527)

$1.2237 (3642)

$1.2193 (4445)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 108872 contracts (according to data from March, 29) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (6531);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4177 (2401)

$1.4143 (2204)

$1.4095 (2493)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4033

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3963 (1183)

$1.3927 (1153)

$1.3886 (3450)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2808);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 34003 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3570);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 29

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.