Notícias do Mercado

30 julho 2013
  • 19:00

    American focus: the U.S. currency rose against the euro

    The dollar rose against the euro, helped by expectations of U.S. President Barack Obama. Experts believe that in his speech, Obama may affect the discussion of lower tax rates on the income of the company (American companies are currently paying 35%).

    Add that to the dynamics of trade was also influenced by data from the S & P / Case-Shiller, which showed that home prices in 10 major U.S. cities rose by 11.8% in the year ended in May. The housing price index S & P Case-Shiller 20-city U.S. in May grew by 12.2% y / y compared with 12.5% ​​growth predicted by economists.

    Seasonally adjusted, the house price index S & P Case-Shiller 10 cities of the United States in May rose by 2.5 m / m, and the 20-city index rose 2.4% in May compared with April.

    Prices in Dallas and Denver have exceeded their maximum values ​​recorded before the financial crisis in June 2007 and August 2006, respectively. In addition, in five cities - Atlanta, Chicago, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle - monthly growth rates for the first time exceeded 3%.

    Housing prices have increased for more than a year. Low mortgage rates and strong job growth have raised demand, while the supply of homes is relatively low.

    The pound was down against the U.S. dollar in anticipation of the Bank of England's MPC meeting, as investors prefer to close long positions. On Thursday at 11:00 GMT the Bank of England will announce its decision on monetary policy. It is expected that the QE program will be in the amount of 375 million pounds, while the key interest rate will probably be left at 0.5. However, we should not exclude the probability of surprises. So, published last week, a report showed the UK economy growing by 0.6% in the second quarter, as analysts. According to experts, it undercut speculation as to what the Bank of England near the end of the current monetary policy. In case of additional evidence supporting fears pound can resume growth.

    The Australian dollar fell sharply after the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens, like, opened the way to a new lower interest rate. During his speech, which was remembered hints of policy easing, Stevens said that restrained inflation means that the RBA may, if necessary to lower the benchmark interest rate, which is already at a record low of 2.75%.

    This important comment was made just a week before the August RBA meeting and he plunged the Australian dollar in sharp decline.

    "Recently, we say that, given the inflation outlook, it will be possible to resort to further ease monetary policy if needed to support the demand. Recent inflation data have not changed it," - said Stevens. The rate of inflation in Australia in the 2nd quarter was 2.4%, while in the depths of the target range 2% to 3%. As if to reinforce this point of view, Stevens said that although the series of rate cuts made by the end of 2011, effectively works by helping to stimulate the economy outside the mining industry, this does not mean that the central bank will lower rates again.

    "Definitely, there are signs that in this respect, our policies are working, although at the moment is not so much that we have seen a serious obstacle to the further easing of policy, if it is appropriate from a macroeconomic point of view," - he said.

  • 15:30

    U.S. consumer confidence falls more than expected in July

    With consumer expectations regarding the short-term outlook weakening in July, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing that consumer confidence for the month fell by more than economists had anticipated.

    The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 80.3 in July from a revised 82.1 in June. Economists had been expecting the index to dip to 81.0 from the 81.4 originally reported for the previous month.

  • 15:00

    U.S.: Consumer confidence , July 80.3 (forecast 81.1)

  • 14:45

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3285, $1.3325

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.05, Y98.20, Y98.40, Y98.50, Y98.75, Y99.00, Y100.0

    EUR/JPY Y130.00

    GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300, $1.5325, $1.5335, $1.5350

    EUR/GBP stg0.8630

    AUD/USD $0.9150, $0.9215, $0.9265, $0.9330, $0.9350, $0.9375

    USD/CAD C$1.0200, C$1.0270, C$1.0300

  • 14:00

    U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y, May +12.2% (forecast +12.5%)

  • 13:46

    German inflation unchanged in July

    Germany's EU harmonized inflation stayed unchanged in July, contrary to economists' forecast for a slowdown, latest data showed Tuesday.

    Inflation, as per the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), was 1.9 percent in July, unchanged from the June figure, the Federal Statistical Office said. Economists had forecast inflation to ease to 1.8 percent.

    The HICP moved up 0.4 percent compared to June, when it logged a 0.1 percent gain. The index was forecast to grow 0.3 percent month-on-month.

    At the same time, the consumer price index advanced 1.9 percent year-on-year in July, after growing 1.8 percent a month earlier. The annual growth was expected to ease to 1.7 percent.

    Sequentially, the consumer price index increased 0.5 percent during the month, following the previous month's 0.1 percent gain. The forecast was for a weaker rise of 0.3 percent, data showed.

  • 13:30

    Canada: Raw Material Price Index, June +4.0% (forecast 0.0%)

  • 13:30

    Canada: Industrial Product Prices, m/m, June +0.3% (forecast +0.1%)

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, m/m, July +0.5% (forecast +0.3%)

  • 13:00

    Germany: CPI, y/y , July +1.9% (forecast +1.7%)

  • 12:45

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers $1.3340/50, $1.3320/25, $1.3300, $1.3280

    Bids $1.3230, $1.3200, $1.3180


    GBP/USD

    Offers $1.5415/20, $1.5380/90, $1.5355, $1.5320/25

    Bids $1.5280, $1.5255/50, $1.5225/20, $1.5200


    AUD/USD

    Offers $0.9235/40, $0.9190/00, $0.9160/65, $0.9115/25, $0.9100

    Bids $0.9000, $0.8990/80, $0.8950


    EUR/JPY

    Offers Y132.00, Y131.85/90, Y131.50, Y131.20, Y130.90/00, Y130.75/80

    Bids Y130.00, Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers Y99.50, Y99.00, Y98.65/70, Y98.45/50

    Bids Y97.50, Y97.40/20, Y97.10/00, Y96.50


    EUR/GBP

    Offers stg0.8700, stg0.8680/85

    Bids stg0.8620, stg0.8600, stg0.8575/65, stg0.8550


  • 11:15

    Australia building approvals contract unexpectedly in June

    The number of dwelling units approved in Australia in June declined unexpectedly, the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.

    Building approvals fell a seasonally adjusted 6.9 percent month-on-month in June compared with forecast of a 2 percent increase. The number of approvals declined 4.3 percent in May.

    On an annual basis, building consents contracted 13 percent. The number of approvals totaled 12,778 during the month.

    As many as 7,926 private sector houses were approved during the month. This was 1.2 percent less than a month earlier and represented the first monthly decline in six months. Year-on-year, number of private sector houses approved rose 9.9 percent.

    Approvals for private sector dwellings, excluding houses, declined 12.6 percent month-on-month to 4,543. This was 37.4 percent lower than a year earlier.

  • 11:00

    Eurozone economic confidence improves in July

    Eurozone economic confidence strengthened in July, driven by improved confidence among consumers and managers in industry, services and retail trade, survey data from the European Commission showed Tuesday.

    The economic confidence index improved to 92.5 from 91.3 in the previous month. The reading matched economists' expectations.

    Sentiment in the industrial sector rose to -10.6 from -11.2 in June. This was resulted from improvements in managers' production expectations and their assessment of the current level of overall order books.

    Services confidence saw the sharpest increase of all sectors covered in July, driven by improved assessments of the past business situation and past demand. The index came in at -7.8 compared to -9.6 a month ago.

    Consumer confidence improved markedly in July and for the eighth successive month. The indicator climbed to -17.4 from -18.8 last month.

    A separate survey showed that business confidence improved for a third consecutive month in July. The reading rose to -0.58 from -0.67 in June.

    The assessment of past production strengthened sharply and also production expectations and the level of overall order books were appraised more positively. At the same time, the assessment of the level of export order books and the stocks of finished products remained broadly unchanged.

  • 10:45

    German consumer optimism strongest since 2007, GfK survey shows

    Sentiment among German consumers is set to rise to its highest level in almost six years heading into August, as households' propensity to buy improved along with an increase in their economic and income expectations at the start of summer, a survey report from market research firm GfK revealed Tuesday.

    The forward-looking consumer confidence index posted 7 in August, up from 6.8 in July. A higher value was last recorded in September 2007, when the indicator was at 7.3. Economists had expected a more modest increase to 6.9.

    "As summer finally arrived in Germany, it was not just the temperature but also the mood of consumers that was rising this month," GfK said in the survey report. The continued stability of employment prospects and a moderate rate of inflation caused optimism to rise once more in July, the report added.

    The economic expectations of German consumers increased for the third consecutive month in July, with the corresponding indicator improving to 4.3 from 1.1 in June.

    The level is only slightly above average and this suggested that the recovery of Germany's economy will be rather sluggish and is also likely to suffer some minor setbacks, GfK said. The firm pointed out that persisting recessions in a number of Eurozone countries and growth slowdown in China could adversely impact German economic situation.

    The income expectations index rose for a fourth consecutive month in July and now stands at 42.8, which was 6.6 points above the June reading. A higher value was last recorded in June 2011, when the indicator posted 44.6. The indicator reflecting consumers' willingness to buy increased to an 18-month high of 40.7 in July from 36.5 in June. The consumer climate index edged up to 6.8 from 6.5 in June.

    Private consumption is therefore confirming its important role as a reliable pillar for the German economy, GfK said. A favorable consumption situation helped the economy to escape recession in the first quarter of 2013.

    The Bundesbank said in a report earlier this month that it sees stronger signs of a slowdown in growth in the third quarter after a solid expansion in the second quarter. The economy expanded 0.1 percent in the first quarter recovering from a contraction in the final quarter of 2012.


  • 10:26

    Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

    EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3285, $1.3325

    USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y98.00, Y98.05, Y98.20, Y98.40, Y98.50, Y98.75, Y99.00, Y100.0

    EUR/JPY Y130.00

    GBP/USD $1.5200, $1.5300, $1.5325, $1.5350

    EUR/GBP stg0.8630

    AUD/USD $0.9150, $0.9215, $0.9265, $0.9330, $0.9350, $0.9375

    USD/CAD C$1.0200, C$1.0270, C$1.0300


  • 10:01

    Eurozone: Business climate indicator , July -0.53 (forecast -0.54)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Economic sentiment index , July 92.5 (forecast 92.5)

  • 10:00

    Eurozone: Industrial confidence, July -10.6 (forecast -10.2)

  • 07:23

    Asian session: The yen weakened


    01:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m June -4.3% Revised From -1.1% +2.2% -6.9%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y June -2.2% Revised From -3.2% 0.0% -13.0%

    03:05 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech


    The yen weakened as Asian stocks rebounded, reducing demand for haven assets.

    The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index headed for its biggest monthly decline in more than a year before a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting begins.

    The greenback traded near a six-week low versus the euro ahead of data tomorrow forecast to show the U.S economy expanded at a slower pace. U.S. growth probably slowed to a 1 percent annualized rate from April through June, compared with 1.8 percent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News economists poll ahead of tomorrow’s report.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this month that any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance.

    The Aussie dropped after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens signaled there is still room for interest rates and the currency to fall.

    The euro stayed lower before the European Central Bank sets policy on Aug 1.


    EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3245-65

    GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5315

    USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y98.60


    Moves seen as market positions itself ahead of the BOE MPC announcement Thursday, with US Q2 GDP and FOMC providing risk elements ahead. A very light domestic data calendar for today with moves to come from end month adjustments, as well as continued position plays ahead of a data/event filled end of the week.


  • 07:00

    Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, August 7.0 (forecast 6.9)

  • 06:22

    Currencies. Daily history for Jul 29'2013:

    (pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,3262 -0,11%

    GBP/USD $1,5340 -0,27%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9311 +0,11%

    USD/JPY Y97,93 -1,37%

    EUR/JPY Y129,85 -1,48%

    GBP/JPY Y150,19 -1,65%

    AUD/USD $0,9205 -0,33%

    NZD/USD $0,8034 -0,37%

    USD/CAD C$1,0263 -0,19%

  • 06:02

    Schedule for today, Tuesday July 30’2013:

    01:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m June -4.3% Revised From -1.1% +2.2% -6.9%

    01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y June -2.2% Revised From -3.2% 0.0% -13.0%

    03:05 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

    06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey August 6.8 6.9

    09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator July -0.68 -0.54

    09:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index July 91.3 92.5

    09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence July -11.2 -10.2

    12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) July +0.1% +0.3%

    12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) July +1.8% +1.7%

    12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m June 0.0% +0.1%

    12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index June +0.2% 0.0%

    13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y May +12.1% +12.5%

    14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence July 81.4 81.1

    20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -1.4

    23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence July -21 -19

    23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 52.3

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