The dollar fell against the euro, despite the previously noted the substantial growth that was recorded after the release of GDP data. We add that the negative impact on the U.S. currency was data that showed that the index of business activity in the Chicago Association of Managers with correction for July rose to 52.3 against 51.6 in June. The growth was weaker than economists' expectations of 53.7. Recall that values above 50 are an indicator of accelerated growth in the economy. All the components in July were in the expansion, with growth compared to the previous month showed the sector procurement prices and supply, and the decline was noted in the employment sector.
Add that market participants are waiting in front of FOMC decisions and other Central Bank this week. The Fed today announced the results of a two-day meeting, and their intentions regarding the program of bond purchases by 85 billion dollars a month. Purchases are designed to help lower interest rates and stimulate spending and investment. The Fed has signaled that can minimize the program to begin this year, if the growth rate is improving in line with its forecasts
The yen fell sharply against the dollar, helped by positive data presented by the United States. It is learned from Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics., employment in the private sector in the U.S. in July rose faster than economists expected, and the figures for June were revised upward. The number of jobs in the private sector in the U.S. in July rose to 200,000. Economists had expected an increase of the number of jobs in the private sector at 179,000. Job growth in June was revised up to 198,000 from 188,000. In addition, the data showed that firms employing 1-49 persons hired 82,000 new employees, medium-sized businesses with a staff of 50-499 people hired 60,000 new employees. Large companies with at least 500 people have taken 57,000 people. Employment in the services sector increased by 177,000 this month, and the industrial sector decreased 5,000.
Australian dollar captures its third-session decline, on expectations that next week the Reserve Bank of Australia may lower the level of the discount rate. We also recall that during his speech yesterday, remember that hints of policy easing, Stevens said that restrained inflation means that the RBA may, if necessary to lower the benchmark interest rate, which is already at a record low of 2.75%. This important comment was made just a week before the August RBA meeting and he plunged the Australian dollar in sharp decline.
"Recently, we say that, given the inflation outlook, it will be possible to resort to further ease monetary policy if needed to support the demand. Recent inflation data have not changed it," - said Stevens. The rate of inflation in Australia in the 2nd quarter was 2.4%, while in the depths of the target range 2% to 3%. As if to reinforce this point of view, Stevens said that although the series of rate cuts made by the end of 2011, effectively works by helping to stimulate the economy outside the mining industry, this does not mean that the central bank will lower rates again.
The cost of the Canadian dollar significantly higher against the U.S. dollar, which helped the data provided by Canada. Note that Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew in May, in line with market expectations, with growth in retail and wholesale trade was offset by weakness in the commodity sector.
The data showed that Canada's GDP, or the total amount of goods and services produced in the country rose by 0.2% to C $ 1.58 trillion after increasing by 0.1% in April. Growth in line with expectations of economists. Compared to the same period last year the Canadian economy grew by 1.6%.
Employment in the U.S. private sector increased by more than anticipated in the month of July, according to a report released by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs in July following an upwardly revised increase of 198,000 jobs in June.
Economists had been expecting employment to increase by about 179,000 jobs compared to the addition of 188,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3340/50, $1.3320, $1.3300/05
Bids $1.3230, $1.3210-00, $1.3180, $1.3165/50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5355, $1.5325/30, $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5245/55
Bids $1.5185/80, $1.5160/50, $1.5125/20, $1.5100
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9190/00, $0.9160/65, $0.9150, $0.9115/25, $0.9100, $0.9045/50
Bids $0.9000, $0.8990/80, $0.8950, $0.8900
EUR/JPY
Offers Y131.50, Y131.20, Y130.90/00, Y130.75/80, Y130.50
Bids Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.00, Y128.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y98.65/70, Y98.45/50, Y98.15/20, Y98.00/05
Bids Y97.55/50, Y97.40/20, Y97.10/00, Y96.50, Y96.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8830/35, stg0.8810/15, stg0.8790/00, stg0.8745/50
Bids stg0.8700/695, stg0.8680/75, stg0.8645/50, stg0.8620
Germany alloted E1.627bln of 30-year benchmark 2.50% July 2044 issue Wednesday at an average yield of 2.47% (2.16%) and bid-to-cover ratio of 1.6 times (1.5).
The euro area unemployment rate remained stable at seasonally adjusted 12.1 percent in June, data from Eurostat showed Wednesday.
The statistical office revised May's jobless rate to 12.1 percent from 12.2 percent estimated on July 2. The June rate was seen at 12.2 percent.
The number of unemployed decreased by 24 000 to 19.266 million in June. Compared with June 2012, unemployment rose by 1.129 million, it said.
A separate flash report from Eurostat showed that inflation held steady at 1.6 percent in July. The rate came in line with economists' expectations.
At the same time, core inflation slowed moderately to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous month. The final report is due on August 16.
EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3125, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y97.40, Y97.50, Y97.65, Y98.00, Y98.30, Y99.25, Y100.00
GBP/USD $1.5300
USD/CHF Chf0.9400
USD/NOK Nok5.98
AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9125, $0.9150, $0.9175, $0.9200, $0.9250
AUD/JPY Y90.95, Y91.20
USD/CAD C$1.0250, C$1.0300
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 50.1 52.8
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.3% +0.3% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +3.0% +2.9% +3.1%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June 0.0% +0.2% +0.1%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +14.5% +15.9% +15.8%
The dollar is set to close out a monthly loss against most of its major peers as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy statement today for signals on when it may curb bond buying that tends to debase the currency.
The dollar was 0.3 percent from a six-week low against the euro before U.S. data forecast to show slowing growth in gross domestic product and employment. U.S. gross domestic product probably grew at a 1 percent annualized rate from April through June, compared with 1.8 percent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department data today.
A separate poll forecast that a report from the ADP Research Institute today will show employers added 180,000 jobs this month, less than the 188,000 in June. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said earlier this month that any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance.
The pound traded near the lowest in four months against the euro before policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England tomorrow.
The Aussie fell for a third day amid speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut borrowing costs next week. Governor Glenn Stevens said yesterday the inflation outlook provided room for further policy easing, prompting a 1.6 percent slide in the currency.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3255-70
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.5220
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y97.85-15
Germany's DIW economic research institute releases it's monthly economic barometer today, although scheduled European data starts at 0600GMT with the release of German retail sales as well as the ILO measure of the employment change. German retail sales are expected to have risen 0.4% m/m, 0.5% y/y after their 0.8% m/m (-0.4% y/y) result last month. France releases consumer spending data and PPI at 0645GMT with consumer spending seen coming in at -0.3% m/m, -0.2% y/y. Spain retail sales are due at 0700GMT at the same time as the Swiss KOF economic barometer is expected to come in at 1.22 in July after 1.16 in June. The main German unemployment data is due at 0755GMT, when a change of -2,500 is expected, leaving the unemployment rate at 6.8%. German Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen gives a press conference at 0900GMT on the release of the data. Also at 0900GMT, Italy and EMU flash HICP data for July is due along with EMU unemployment data. The EMU flash HICP is seen confirming the preliminary 1.6% y/y reading with Italy seen at 1.5% y/y
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3263 +0,01%
GBP/USD $1,5236 -0,68%
USD/CHF Chf0,9297 -0,15%
USD/JPY Y98,05 +0,12%
EUR/JPY Y130,01 +0,12%
GBP/JPY Y149,35 -0,56%
AUD/USD $0,9067 -1,52%
NZD/USD $0,7988 -0,58%
USD/CAD C$1,0305 +0,41%
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 50.1 52.8
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.3% +0.3% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +3.0% +2.9% +3.1%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June 0.0% +0.2% +0.1%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +14.5% +15.9%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted June +0.8% +0.1%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y June +0.4% +0.5%
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.46
06:45 France Consumer spending June +0.5% +0.1%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y June +0.6% +0.1%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator July 1.16 1.21
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change July -12.4 -1
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. July 6.8% 6.8%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) July +1.6% +1.6%
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 12.1% 12.2%
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report July 188 179
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) May +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter II +2.6% +1.6%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter II +1.3% +1.1%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter II +0.3% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter II +1.8% +1.1%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index July 51.6 53.7
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -2.8
18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement
23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index July 49.6