The dollar fell against the euro, despite the previously noted the substantial growth that was recorded after the release of GDP data. We add that the negative impact on the U.S. currency was data that showed that the index of business activity in the Chicago Association of Managers with correction for July rose to 52.3 against 51.6 in June. The growth was weaker than economists' expectations of 53.7. Recall that values above 50 are an indicator of accelerated growth in the economy. All the components in July were in the expansion, with growth compared to the previous month showed the sector procurement prices and supply, and the decline was noted in the employment sector.
Add that market participants are waiting in front of FOMC decisions and other Central Bank this week. The Fed today announced the results of a two-day meeting, and their intentions regarding the program of bond purchases by 85 billion dollars a month. Purchases are designed to help lower interest rates and stimulate spending and investment. The Fed has signaled that can minimize the program to begin this year, if the growth rate is improving in line with its forecasts
The yen fell sharply against the dollar, helped by positive data presented by the United States. It is learned from Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics., employment in the private sector in the U.S. in July rose faster than economists expected, and the figures for June were revised upward. The number of jobs in the private sector in the U.S. in July rose to 200,000. Economists had expected an increase of the number of jobs in the private sector at 179,000. Job growth in June was revised up to 198,000 from 188,000. In addition, the data showed that firms employing 1-49 persons hired 82,000 new employees, medium-sized businesses with a staff of 50-499 people hired 60,000 new employees. Large companies with at least 500 people have taken 57,000 people. Employment in the services sector increased by 177,000 this month, and the industrial sector decreased 5,000.
Australian dollar captures its third-session decline, on expectations that next week the Reserve Bank of Australia may lower the level of the discount rate. We also recall that during his speech yesterday, remember that hints of policy easing, Stevens said that restrained inflation means that the RBA may, if necessary to lower the benchmark interest rate, which is already at a record low of 2.75%. This important comment was made just a week before the August RBA meeting and he plunged the Australian dollar in sharp decline.
"Recently, we say that, given the inflation outlook, it will be possible to resort to further ease monetary policy if needed to support the demand. Recent inflation data have not changed it," - said Stevens. The rate of inflation in Australia in the 2nd quarter was 2.4%, while in the depths of the target range 2% to 3%. As if to reinforce this point of view, Stevens said that although the series of rate cuts made by the end of 2011, effectively works by helping to stimulate the economy outside the mining industry, this does not mean that the central bank will lower rates again.
The cost of the Canadian dollar significantly higher against the U.S. dollar, which helped the data provided by Canada. Note that Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew in May, in line with market expectations, with growth in retail and wholesale trade was offset by weakness in the commodity sector.
The data showed that Canada's GDP, or the total amount of goods and services produced in the country rose by 0.2% to C $ 1.58 trillion after increasing by 0.1% in April. Growth in line with expectations of economists. Compared to the same period last year the Canadian economy grew by 1.6%.
European stocks were little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index completing its biggest monthly gain since October 2011, as a report showed the U.S. economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 299.58 at the close of trading London, after earlier climbing as much as 0.4 percent and dropping as much as 0.5 percent. The gauge rallied 5.1 percent in July as Federal Reserve President Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank remains flexible on the pace of its bond-buying program. The Fed will reveal the outcome of a two-day policy meeting after European markets close today. Bernanke has said that low inflation and high unemployment mean the central bank needs to continue buying bonds. The Fed will leave the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent when it announces its decision, according to economist survey. The central bank may begin to reduce its bond-purchase program in September, economists predicted in a separate survey.
The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, grew at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, after expanding at a revised 1.1 percent pace in the first three months of the year, according to a report from the Commerce Department. Economists had predicted a 1,1 percent expansion for the period, according to the median estimate.
A separate release showed that companies in the U.S. hired a net 200,000 workers in July, the highest reading this year. Economists had projected a gain of 180,000 for the month. The ADP Research Institute’s report showed that private employers increased their workforce by a revised 198,000 in June.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 11 of the 18 western-European markets today.
FTSE 100 6,621.06 +50.11 +0.76% CAC 40 3,992.69 +6.08 +0.15% DAX 8,275.97 +4.95 +0.06%
AB InBev jumped 6.9 percent to 72.38 euros, its biggest advance since May 2010. Second-quarter organic normalized earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization rose 5.8 percent as the company sold more expensive beer in the U.S. Analysts had predicted growth of 3.7 percent for the period.
Diageo Plc, which brews Guinness beer, Johnnie Walker whisky and Smirnoff vodka, rose 3.2 percent to 2,054 pence. The world’s biggest distiller posted operating profit excluding some items of 3.53 billion pounds, compared with a 3.48 billion-pound median estimate.
Invensys advanced 1.1 percent to 496.3 pence after Schneider (SU) Electric said it will buy the company for the equivalent of 502 pence a share. Schneider, which posted first-half earnings today and reaffirmed its Ebita-margin forecast for 2013, added 3.3 percent to 59.91 euros.
PSA Peugeot Citroen, which yesterday won European Commission approval for a 7 billion-euro guarantee from the French government, surged 6.7 percent to 9.60 euros. The carmaker posted an operating loss of 65 million euros in the first half, a narrower deficit that the 295.8 million-euro average of analyst estimates.
HeidelbergCement AG increased 5.5 percent to 57.74 euros. The cement maker said sales in North America and a recovering market in the U.K. helped profit in the second quarter beat analysts’ estimates.
Oil prices have risen markedly, which has helped to publish a report on oil stocks in the United States. Note that the report submitted by the Energy Information Administration showed that by the end of last week, oil stocks rose by 431,000 barrels, while reaching a level of 364.622 million barrels. Many experts expected that the stock decline by 2.45 million barrels. In addition, it was reported U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 0.77 million barrels - up to 223.464 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 0.466 million barrels to 125.986 million. We also add that the oil terminal in Cushing fell by 1,904 million - up to 42.119 million barrels and refinery utilization in the United States amounted to 91.3% against 92.3% a week earlier.
We also recall that yesterday its report on oil stocks posted the American Petroleum Institute. According to them, the oil reserves fell by 0.74 million barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell 0.497 million barrels.
It should also be noted that the rise in oil prices helped the data on the growth of the American economy.
According to the report, the U.S. GDP in the 2nd quarter was more than expected at moderate overall growth, as consumers are not willing to spend more, and the government continues to reduce costs.
According to the first estimate, provided by the Ministry of Commerce, U.S. gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter was higher by 1.7% per year, after rising by 1.1% in Q1. Economists had expected an increase of 1.1%.
The focus is now the second half of the year.
Note also that the Fed will announce today the results of a two-day meeting, and their intentions regarding the program of bond purchases by 85 billion dollars a month. Purchases are designed to help lower interest rates and stimulate spending and investment. The Fed has signaled that can minimize the program to begin this year, if the growth rate is improving in line with its forecasts. GDP report allows the Fed to turn around and evaluate the performance of the economy after the recession. Extensive changes to the data show that the U.S. economy expanded at a strong pace in 2012, but the decline was not as strong as previously thought. GDP last year increased by 2.8% compared with the rate in the previous assessment + 2.2%. Changes occur as part of a comprehensive revision of the gross domestic product from 1929 to the first quarter of 2013.
The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 104.36 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture increased to $ 107.00 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices fell sharply, losing what was about 1%, after previously presented strong data on the U.S. dollar strengthened. It should be noted that, despite this decline, the precious metal continued to exhibit the largest monthly gain since January 2012 - at the level of 5%, the first monthly increase since March, that, first of all, was associated with a statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that a highly accommodative monetary policy will be needed for the foreseeable future, and that any reduction in bond purchases will depend on the state of the economy.
Note that today's report from the Commerce Department showed that economic activity in the United States increased at a faster pace than expected in the second quarter. At the same time, the report also shows a significant downward revision to growth in the first quarter.
According to the report, the gross domestic product increased by 1.7 percent in the second quarter, following a revised 1.1 percent increase in the first quarter. Economists had expected GDP to grow by 1.1 percent compared with 1.8 percent growth, which have been registered in the previous quarter. Real final sales in the U.S. in Q2 rose by 1.3%. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the 2nd quarter unchanged. The basic price index for personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) in the 2nd quarter +0.8%.
Meanwhile, today it was reported that employment in the private sector in the U.S. has increased more than expected in July. ADP reported that private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs in July after an upwardly revised increase of 198,000 jobs in June. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 179,000 jobs compared to the addition of 188,000 jobs, which was originally reported in the previous month.
Note that the data presented by the strong increase the likelihood that the Fed is getting closer to reducing its incentives. Many market participants now expect the Federal Reserve, which is expected to help shed light on the possible purchase of bonds.
The cost of the August gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1309.10 per ounce.
U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors weighed reports showing faster-than-forecast growth in the economy and private payrolls before a policy statement from the Federal Reserve..
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 13,668.32 -201.50 -1.45%
Hang Seng 21,883.66 -70.30 -0.32%
Shanghai Composite 1,993.8 +3.73 +0.19%
FTSE 6,614.47 +43.52 +0.66%
CAC 3,976.29 -10.32 -0.26%
DAX 8,233.3 -37.72 -0.46%
Crude oil $103.47 +0.38%
Gold $1322.80 -0.09%
Employment in the U.S. private sector increased by more than anticipated in the month of July, according to a report released by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs in July following an upwardly revised increase of 198,000 jobs in June.
Economists had been expecting employment to increase by about 179,000 jobs compared to the addition of 188,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3340/50, $1.3320, $1.3300/05
Bids $1.3230, $1.3210-00, $1.3180, $1.3165/50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5355, $1.5325/30, $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5245/55
Bids $1.5185/80, $1.5160/50, $1.5125/20, $1.5100
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9190/00, $0.9160/65, $0.9150, $0.9115/25, $0.9100, $0.9045/50
Bids $0.9000, $0.8990/80, $0.8950, $0.8900
EUR/JPY
Offers Y131.50, Y131.20, Y130.90/00, Y130.75/80, Y130.50
Bids Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.00, Y128.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y98.65/70, Y98.45/50, Y98.15/20, Y98.00/05
Bids Y97.55/50, Y97.40/20, Y97.10/00, Y96.50, Y96.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8830/35, stg0.8810/15, stg0.8790/00, stg0.8745/50
Bids stg0.8700/695, stg0.8680/75, stg0.8645/50, stg0.8620
European stocks fluctuated, heading for their best month since October 2011, as investors awaited a report on the pace of U.S. economic growth to gauge how long the Federal Reserve will continue to buy bonds.
Fed President Ben S. Bernanke has said that low inflation and high unemployment mean the central bank needs to continue buying bonds. The Fed will reveal the outcome of its two-day policy meeting after European markets close today. It will leave the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent, according to every economist in a survey. The central bank may begin to reduce its bond-purchase program in September, economists predicted in a separate survey.
AB InBev jumped 7.6 percent to 72.85 euros, its biggest advance in 26 months. Second-quarter organic normalized earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization rose 5.8 percent as the company sold more expensive beer in the U.S. Analysts had predicted growth of 3.7 percent for the period.
Invensys gained 2.4 percent to 502.5 pence after Schneider Electric said it will buy the company for the equivalent of 502 pence a share. Schneider, which posted first-half earnings today and reaffirmed its Ebita-margin forecast for 2013, added 4.7 percent to 60.74 euros.
Vinci lost 2 percent to 40.06 euros. Net income in the first six months of the year fell to 748 million euros and missed the 760.5 million-euro average estimate in a survey of analysts. Net income will decline less in the second half of the year, the company said in a statement.
FTSE 100 6,622.09 +51.14 +0.78%
CAC 40 3,988.15 +1.54 +0.04%
DAX 8,276.38 +5.36 +0.06%
Germany alloted E1.627bln of 30-year benchmark 2.50% July 2044 issue Wednesday at an average yield of 2.47% (2.16%) and bid-to-cover ratio of 1.6 times (1.5).
The euro area unemployment rate remained stable at seasonally adjusted 12.1 percent in June, data from Eurostat showed Wednesday.
The statistical office revised May's jobless rate to 12.1 percent from 12.2 percent estimated on July 2. The June rate was seen at 12.2 percent.
The number of unemployed decreased by 24 000 to 19.266 million in June. Compared with June 2012, unemployment rose by 1.129 million, it said.
A separate flash report from Eurostat showed that inflation held steady at 1.6 percent in July. The rate came in line with economists' expectations.
At the same time, core inflation slowed moderately to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous month. The final report is due on August 16.
EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3125, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3230, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y97.40, Y97.50, Y97.65, Y98.00, Y98.30, Y99.25, Y100.00
GBP/USD $1.5300
USD/CHF Chf0.9400
USD/NOK Nok5.98
AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9125, $0.9150, $0.9175, $0.9200, $0.9250
AUD/JPY Y90.95, Y91.20
USD/CAD C$1.0250, C$1.0300
Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index paring its first monthly advance since April, before U.S. economic growth data and the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Nikkei 225 13,668.32 -201.50 -1.45% 1.86b
Hang Seng 21,876 -77.96 -0.36% 954.87m
S&P/ASX 200 5,051.98 +4.74 +0.09% 632.31m
Shanghai Composite 1,993.8 +3.73 +0.19% 70.16k
HTC Corp., Taiwan’s biggest smartphone maker, tumbled 6.7 percent after forecasting an eighth consecutive drop in quarterly sales.
GungHo Online Entertainment Inc., which has climbed 10-fold this year, slumped 13 percent in Tokyo as more than five shares fell for each that rose on the Topix index.
China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. rose 2.7 percent in Hong Kong, pacing gains among Chinese developers, after the government endorsed development of the property market.
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 50.1 52.8
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.3% +0.3% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +3.0% +2.9% +3.1%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June 0.0% +0.2% +0.1%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +14.5% +15.9% +15.8%
The dollar is set to close out a monthly loss against most of its major peers as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy statement today for signals on when it may curb bond buying that tends to debase the currency.
The dollar was 0.3 percent from a six-week low against the euro before U.S. data forecast to show slowing growth in gross domestic product and employment. U.S. gross domestic product probably grew at a 1 percent annualized rate from April through June, compared with 1.8 percent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department data today.
A separate poll forecast that a report from the ADP Research Institute today will show employers added 180,000 jobs this month, less than the 188,000 in June. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said earlier this month that any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance.
The pound traded near the lowest in four months against the euro before policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England tomorrow.
The Aussie fell for a third day amid speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut borrowing costs next week. Governor Glenn Stevens said yesterday the inflation outlook provided room for further policy easing, prompting a 1.6 percent slide in the currency.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3255-70
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.5220
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y97.85-15
Germany's DIW economic research institute releases it's monthly economic barometer today, although scheduled European data starts at 0600GMT with the release of German retail sales as well as the ILO measure of the employment change. German retail sales are expected to have risen 0.4% m/m, 0.5% y/y after their 0.8% m/m (-0.4% y/y) result last month. France releases consumer spending data and PPI at 0645GMT with consumer spending seen coming in at -0.3% m/m, -0.2% y/y. Spain retail sales are due at 0700GMT at the same time as the Swiss KOF economic barometer is expected to come in at 1.22 in July after 1.16 in June. The main German unemployment data is due at 0755GMT, when a change of -2,500 is expected, leaving the unemployment rate at 6.8%. German Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen gives a press conference at 0900GMT on the release of the data. Also at 0900GMT, Italy and EMU flash HICP data for July is due along with EMU unemployment data. The EMU flash HICP is seen confirming the preliminary 1.6% y/y reading with Italy seen at 1.5% y/y
Change % Change Last
GOLD 1,325.20 -3.20 -0.24%
OIL (WTI) 103.10 -1.45 -1.39%
Nikkei 225 13,869.82 208,69 1,53%
Hang Seng 21,953.5 103,35 0,47%
S & P / ASX 200 5,047.24 +0.91 +0.02%
Shanghai Composite 1,990.06 13,76 0,70%
FTSE 100 6,570.95 +10.70 +0.16%
CAC 40 3,986.61 +17.70 +0.45%
DAX 8,271.02 +11.99 +0.15%
Dow -0.38 15,521.59 -0.00%
Nasdaq +17.33 3,616.47 +0.48%
S&P +0.64 1,685.97 +0.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3263 +0,01%
GBP/USD $1,5236 -0,68%
USD/CHF Chf0,9297 -0,15%
USD/JPY Y98,05 +0,12%
EUR/JPY Y130,01 +0,12%
GBP/JPY Y149,35 -0,56%
AUD/USD $0,9067 -1,52%
NZD/USD $0,7988 -0,58%
USD/CAD C$1,0305 +0,41%
01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence July 50.1 52.8
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m June +0.3% +0.3% +0.4%
01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y June +3.0% +2.9% +3.1%
01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY June 0.0% +0.2% +0.1%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y June +14.5% +15.9%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted June +0.8% +0.1%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y June +0.4% +0.5%
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June 1.46
06:45 France Consumer spending June +0.5% +0.1%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y June +0.6% +0.1%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator July 1.16 1.21
07:55 Germany Unemployment Change July -12.4 -1
07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. July 6.8% 6.8%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) July +1.6% +1.6%
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate June 12.1% 12.2%
12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report July 188 179
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) May +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter II +2.6% +1.6%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter II +1.3% +1.1%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter II +0.3% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter II +1.8% +1.1%
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index July 51.6 53.7
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories July -2.8
18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:00 U.S. FOMC Statement
23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index July 49.6