The euro fell to a three-month low against the U.S. dollar after comments from ECB representative of low interest rates. In an interview with Reuters Governing Council member Joerg Asmussen, explaining ECB President Mario Draghi made to them last week, said the ECB will probably keep rates low for more than 12 months. Asmussen also said that would not rule out another round of cheap credit that was used two years ago to inject capital into troubled banks in the eurozone.
A sharp decline in the euro reacted to those comments, as they were the signal that the ECB will continue to keep rates low, which reduces the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets to investors. Last week, Draghi promised that rates in the euro area will remain at low levels "for an extended period of time." It was an unprecedented move by the central bank.
Later, however, the ECB acted with objections as to the timing relative to a reference period of validity of the monetary policy.
The euro strengthened decline after the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's credit rating from BBB + to the level of BBB. As stated in the accompanying statement, S & P, this measure reflects the impact of the ongoing slowdown in Italy due to structural weakness and low vitality of its economy. S & P maintained a negative outlook on the rating, which indicates the possibility of further downgrade in 2013 or 2014, with a probability of 3.1.
The pound fell against the dollar significantly, aided by the publication of the report by Britain. As shown by recent data that was presented today by the Office for National Statistics, the volume of industrial production in the UK has not changed in the month of May, while manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.
According to a report in the May monthly basis, the volume of industrial production showed zero growth, while manufacturing output fell by 0.8%. It should be noted that, according to experts average output was increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. We also add that the rate of industrial production for April was revised down to -0.1% from 0.1%.
In addition, the data showed that on an annual basis, industrial production fell by 2.3%, beating economists' forecasts of 1.5% reduction, which was associated with a 2.9% fall in manufacturing and a 3.5% decline in the mining industry and quarrying.
The yen was suspended yesterday's decline against the euro, pending the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which starts tomorrow. Officials will discuss the situation in the markets, and, according to rumors, a reassessment of the country's economic growth upwards.
European stocks rose to an almost one-month high as Alcoa Inc. started the U.S. earnings-reporting season with results that beat analysts’ estimates.
Alcoa, the first member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report quarterly results, said profit excluding some expenses was 7 cents a share. That beat the 6-cent average of 15 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales fell to $5.85 billion, still surpassing the $5.79 billion average projection.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 13 of the 18 western-European markets today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 1.1 percent, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.2 percent, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6 percent.
A gauge of mining companies rose 2.6 percent, for the best performance among the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600. Global aluminum demand will increase 7 percent this year, led by an 11 percent growth in China, Alcoa said.
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group climbed 2.7 percent to 1,734 pence and 2.8 percent to 2,745 pence, respectively. Polymetal International Plc, which operates gold and silver mines in Russia and a gold-and-copper mine in Kazakhstan, advanced 6.6 percent to 505.5 pence. Anglo American Plc gained 3 percent to 1,282.5 pence.
EDF rallied 9.4 percent to 19.43 euros. France has authorized the utility to raise its power prices for households by 5 percent next month and by another 5 percent in August 2014, Le Parisien reported. The newspaper cited a statement from Ecology and Energy Minister Philippe Martin. Separately, UBS AG upgraded the stock to neutral.
LVMH advanced 2.1 percent to 131.50 euros. The company agreed to pay 2 billion euros ($2.56 billion) for 80 percent of Loro Piana. The family owners of the maker of $1,385 cashmere sweaters will retain a 20 percent stake in the business, Paris-based LVMH said.
West Texas
Intermediate crude fell for a second day as the dollar strengthened against a
basket of other major currencies and
Prices
dropped as much as 0.8 percent as the Dollar Index climbed to a three-year
high.
WTI for
August delivery slid 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $102.88 a barrel at 10:47
a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was
21 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.
Brent for August settlement fell 7 cents to $107.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 5.9 percent below the 100-day average.
Gold prices are rising, as the data of the acceleration of inflation in China increased the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.
Consumer price inflation in China in June accelerated more than expected by analysts. The consumer price index in June rose by 2.7% compared with the same period last year, higher than the growth of 2.1% in May and the forecasts of economists, who had expected price growth of 2.5%.
The growth of the dollar against a basket of world currencies slowed, but analysts believe that the upward trend will continue due to the expectations of the Fed's reduction incentive program. Reducing incentives will increase interest rates and the dollar, making gold less attractive to investors outside the United States.
Gold fell by almost 10 percent since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced in June its intention to commence the reduction of the central bank buying up bonds this year. Investors are waiting for the protocol of the June meeting of the Committee on the work of the Federal Open Market, which will be published on Wednesday.
Traders attributed the rise in prices on Tuesday as technical purchases after passing the mark of $ 1,245 per ounce.
Stocks of the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust fell to its lowest level since February 2009 946.96 tons.
The cost of the August gold futures on COMEX today rose to a high of $ 1258.70 an ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2830, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y100.00, Y100.50, Y101.00, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y101.60
EUR/JPY Y130.00
GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5000
AUD/USD $0.9015, $0.9150, $0.9180
AUD/JPY Y90.15, Y91.55
NZD/JPY Y77.40
USD/CAD C$1.0500, C$1.0530
CAD/JPY Y95.75
U.S. stock-index futures rose as the start of corporate earnings season increased optimism about economic growth.
Alcoa (AA) Inc. advanced after posting earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and maintaining its forecast for global aluminum demand.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 14,472.9 +363.56 +2.58%
Hang Seng 20,683.01 +100.82 +0.49%
Shanghai Composite 1,965.45 +7.18 +0.37%
FTSE 6,503.27 +53.20 +0.82%
CAC 3,846.05 +22.22 +0.58%
DAX 8,050 +81.46 +1.02%
Crude oil $102.57 -0.55%
Gold $1252.10 +1.39%
Upgrades:
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Capital
Downgrades:
IBM downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs
Other:
Data
01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence June -1 0
01:30 China PPI y/y June -2.9% -2.5% -2.7%
01:30 China CPI y/y June +2.1% +2.5% +2.7%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y June -7.4% -12.4%
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.3% +3.7% +1.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) May +0.1% +0.3% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) May -0.6% -1.5% -2.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) May -0.2% +0.5% -0.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) May -0.5% -1.5% -2.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods May -8.2 -8.5 -8.5
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings
The pound fell against the dollar significantly, aided by the publication of the report by Britain. As shown by recent data that was presented today by the Office for National Statistics, the volume of industrial production in the UK has not changed in the month of May, while manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.
According to a report in the May monthly basis, the volume of industrial production showed zero growth, while manufacturing output fell by 0.8%.
It should be noted that, according to experts average output was increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. We also add that the rate of industrial production for April was revised down to -0.1% from 0.1%.
In addition, the data showed that on an annual basis, industrial production fell by 2.3%, beating economists' forecasts of 1.5% reduction, which was associated with a 2.9% fall in manufacturing and a 3.5% decline in the mining industry and quarrying. With regard to production in the manufacturing industry, it declined by 2.9%, which was also significantly higher than the estimates of experts at -1.5%. Note also that the decline followed the April decline of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively.
The yen was suspended yesterday's decline against the euro, pending the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which starts tomorrow. Officials will discuss the situation in the markets, and, according to rumors, a reassessment of the country's economic growth upwards.
The Australian dollar rose after a strong rise in gold prices in Asia on Tuesday. We also add that traders expect the comments on Wednesday the central bank's assessment of the prospects for the U.S. economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its meeting on June 18-19 on Wednesday, and investors expect the information that policy makers intend to reduce the economic incentives to the end of the week.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is also planning to give a speech on economic policy. Fed may begin to curtail their economic stimulus program by the end of the year.
Experts note that Bernanke may increase expectations that the Fed's bond-buying program, which aims to lower interest rates in the U.S. may be a step closer after the employment data in the U.S. on Friday. The market is still trying to assess whether September will bring a reduction of 85 billion dollar stimulus. The strength of the Australian dollar is growing, despite a lot of bad news on the domestic front. Australian business conditions fell to its lowest level in more than four years, despite the support of record low interest rates and a sharp fall in the local currency, which has helped manufacturers
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2898, then dropped to $ 1.2855
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.4831
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.31
At 12:15 GMT Canada will report on the number of Housing Starts in June. At 14:00 GMT Britain will present data on changes in GDP from NIESR for June. At 20:30 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of crude oil, according to API. At 23:50 GMT Japan will release the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in June, and the index of activity in the services sector in May.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2950/60, $1.2930/35, $1.2900, $1.2898
Bids $1.2845/40, $1.2815/00, $1.2780, $1.2755/45
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5050/60, $1.5030, $1.5000/10, $1.4950/60, $1.4920, $1.4900/05
Bids $1.4832, $1.4810/00, $1.4780/70
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9320, $0.9300, $0.9270/75, $0.9250, $0.9220/30, $0.9200
Bids $0.9100, $0.9085/80, $0.9070, $0.9045/40, $0.9025
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8740/45, stg0.8715/20, stg0.8700/05, stg0.8690/95, stg0.8670
Bids stg0.8570/65, stg0.8515/10, stg0.8500, stg0.8482
EUR/JPY
Offers Y132.00, Y131.50, Y131.15/20, Y131.00, Y130.80/85, Y130.55/60
Bids Y129.80/70, Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.10/00, Y128.55/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.50, Y101.30
Bids Y100.80/75, Y100.55/50, Y100.25/20, Y100.00
European stocks rose significantly, reaching in this three-week high, helped by a financial report from the American company Alcoa Ink, who started the earnings season with results that exceeded analysts' expectations. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also rose.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7% to 294.33, after rising to its highest level since June 17.
We add that the sensor mining companies increased by 2.1%, showing the best performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, after the company Alcoa said that global aluminum demand to grow by 7% this year, led by a 11% growth in China.
Shares of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group climbed 2.7% to 1,735 pence and 2.3% to 2,730.5 pence, respectively.
The cost of Polymetal International Plc, which is developing a gold and silver mines in Russia and gold-copper mine in Kazakhstan increased by 3.9% to 493 pence.
Shares of Anglo American Plc climbed 3.4% to 1,287 pence.
The cost of EDF increased by 9% to 19.36 euros after France komanalnoy allowed the company to increase the price of electricity for households by 5% in the next month and a further 5% in August 2014. In addition, it was reported that UBS AG raised its rating on the stock to 'neutral'.
LVMH shares rose 2.2 percent to 131.60 euros. The company has agreed to pay 2 billion euros ($ 2.57 billion) in 80% Loro Piana.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 6,508.88 +58.81 +0.91%
CAC 40 3,848.22 +24.39 +0.64%
DAX 8,048.5 +79.96 +1.00%
EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2830, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y100.00, Y100.50, Y101.00, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y101.60
EUR/JPY Y130.00
GBP/USD $1.4900, $1.5000
AUD/USD $0.9015, $0.9150, $0.9180
AUD/JPY Y90.15, Y91.55
NZD/JPY Y77.40
USD/CAD C$1.0500, C$1.0530
CAD/JPY Y95.75
Asian stocks rose, with the regional equities gauge on course to rebound from its biggest drop in two weeks, as a weakening yen pushed Japan’s Topix index to a seven-week high and industrial companies advanced.
Nikkei 225 14,472.9 +363.56 +2.58%
Hang Seng 20,690.13 +107.94 +0.52%
S&P/ASX 200 4,881.65 +72.12 +1.50%
Shanghai Composite 1,965.45 +7.18 +0.37%
Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 75 percent of its auto sales outside Japan, gained 2.6 percent.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, advanced 2.1 percent in Sydney as metals prices climbed.
Olympus Corp. sank 5.4 percent in Tokyo after the biggest endoscope maker said it plans to sell as much as 118 billion yen ($1.2 billion) of shares.
01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence June -1 0
01:30 China PPI y/y June -2.9% -2.5% -2.7%
01:30 China CPI y/y June +2.1% +2.5% +2.7%
The Dollar Index rose as traders increased bullish bets on the U.S. currency amid speculation the Federal Reserve will provide further guidance on plans to scale back asset purchases. The gauge advanced toward the three-year high reached yesterday before Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks tomorrow, the same day minutes of the central bank’s June meeting are due.
The yen halted yesterday’s decline versus the euro before Bank of Japan officials meet this week. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his fellow policy makers will gather tomorrow for a two-day meeting. Officials will discuss upgrading their assessment of the nation’s economy by using the word “recover” for the first time in more than two years, people familiar with the central bank’s discussions said.
The Aussie dollar weakened after Chinese government figures showed the consumer price index for the world’s second-biggest economy rose 2.7 percent in June from a year earlier, more than the 2.5 percent forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. Interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg News show traders see a 58 percent chance the RBA will reduce its benchmark interest rate to an unprecedented 2.5 percent at its next meeting on Aug. 6. The rate already stands at a record low of 2.75 percent.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2845/70
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.4915/50
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y101.25
There is a string of UK data set for release at 0830GMT, including May Industrial Production, May Trade Data and the June BOE Quoted Rates data. Industrial output is seen coming in 0.1% higher on month. The May manufacturing PMI showed the sector expanding, with the 51.3 outturn marking a 14- month high. The three monthly growth rate in manufacturing output should be comfortably into positive territory, with the sector on track to make a positive contribution to Q2 GDP. The narrowing in the April trade balance may prove unsustainable. Analysts' median forecast is for no deterioration in May, but some see a large chunk of the near stg1 billion narrowing in April being unwound. At 1030GMT, UK Chief Treasury Sec Danny Alexander will appear before the Treasury Select Committee to answer questions on the spending round. At 1400GMT, the NIESR Monthly GDP Growth Forecast numbers will cross the wires. At 1430GMT, Bank of England Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech to the Association of British Insurers conference.
Change % Change Last
GOLD 1,235.10 22.40 1.85%
OIL (WTI) 102.81 -0.41 -0.40%
Nikkei 225 14,109.34 -200,63 -1,40%
Hang Seng 20,601.75 -252,92 -1,21%
S & P / ASX 200 4,809.5 -32,25 -0,67%
Shanghai Composite 1,958.27 -48.93 -2.44%
FTSE 100 6,450.07 +74.55 +1.17%
CAC 40 3,823.83 +69.98 +1.86%
DAX 7,968.54 +162.54 +2.08%
DJIA 15,224.70 88.85 0.59%
S&P 500 1,640.46 8.57 0.53%
NASDAQ 3,484.83 5.45 0.16%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2868 -0,33%
GBP/USD $1,4948 -0,84%
USD/CHF Chf0,9636 +0,77%
USD/JPY Y100,88 +0,76%
EUR/JPY Y129,81 +0,40%
GBP/JPY Y150,78 -0,06%
AUD/USD $0,9132 -0,09%
NZD/USD $0,7805 -0,32%
USD/CAD C$1,0560 +0,42%
01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence June -1
01:30 China PPI y/y June -2.9% -2.5% -2.7%
01:30 China CPI y/y June +2.1% +2.5% +2.7%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y June -7.4%
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.3% +3.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) May +0.1% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) May -0.6% -1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) May -0.2% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) May -0.5% -1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods May -8.2 -8.5
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings
12:15 Canada Housing Starts June 200 190
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate June +0.6%
14:30 United Kingdom BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -9.4
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes June
23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index May 0.0% +0.9%