U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, as market participants digested the latest statements by the Federal Reserve.

Global Stocks:

“In our view, UK economic growth peaked in the third quarter of this year and will settle at a rate that is close to its post-crisis average in the final quarter.

According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter (three months to September) after growing by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter (three months to June). The outturn was slightly lower than the 0.7 per cent monthly GDP forecast that we published last month for the same period and the error is partly because of back data revisions. Building on the official data, our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy will expand by 0.4 in the final quarter of this year. The apparent strength in third quarter growth masks a loss in momentum in industrial production as well as services output in the latter part of the third quarter. There are a number of factors at play, including Brexit-related uncertainty”.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

General Electric (GE) target lowered to $6 from $10 at J.P. Morgan Securities; Underweight

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended in October.
In October, over 60 percent of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 percent in October after climbing 0.4 percent in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.

Walt Disney Co (DIS) reported Q4 FY 2018 earnings of $1.48 per share (versus $1.07 in Q4 FY 2017), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.35.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $14.300 bln (+11.9% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $13.762 bln.

DIS rose to $117.50 (+1.29%) in pre-market trading.

Construction output continued to recover following a relatively weak start to the year, increasing by 2.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018; this follows a fall of 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 and an increase of 0.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018.

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018 was driven by all new work which increased by 2.8%, and repair and maintenance which increased by 1.0%.

Construction output increased by 1.7% between August and September 2018, this was driven by an increase in all new work which increased by 2.8%; this was partly offset by a fall of 0.3% in repair and maintenance.

The level of the all work series for September 2018 reached £13,995 million – a record high since the monthly records began in January 2010.

Services output increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018; following growth of 0.6% between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 and Quarter 2 2018.

The information and communication sector made the largest contribution to the quarter-on-quarter growth, contributing 0.16 percentage points.

The Index of Services fell by 0.1% between August 2018 and September 2018.

The motor trade industry was behind this month-on-month decrease, contributing negative 0.14 percentage points.

In the three months to September 2018, services output increased by 1.7% compared with the three months ending September 2017.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £3.2 billion to £2.9 billion in the three months to September 2018, due mainly to an improving goods balance.

Goods exports increased £5.0 billion compared with a £2.1 billion rise in goods imports, resulting in the goods deficit narrowing £2.9 billion to £31.9 billion in the three months to September 2018.

Cars had the single-largest impact on the goods balance due to a combined £1.0 billion rise in non-EU exports and £1.7 billion fall in EU imports in the three months to September 2018.

Rising exports was the main factor for the goods deficit narrowing with both EU and non-EU countries, by £2.5 billion and £0.4 billion respectively, in the three months to September 2018.

Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit narrowed £4.0 billion to £1.7 billion in the three months to September 2018.

The rise of 0.8% in total production output for Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2018, compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018, is due primarily to a rise of 0.6% in manufacturing, supported by upward contributions from the other sectors.

The quarterly increase in manufacturing output, reverses the fall in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018, due primarily to growth from transport equipment (2.3%), and basic metals and metal products (1.9%).

In September 2018, total production output was estimated to have remained flat at 0.0%, compared with August 2018, due to a 0.2% rise in manufacturing being offset by downward contributions from the other main sectors.

The monthly increase in manufacturing output of 0.2% was due mainly to strength from basic pharmaceutical products (3.9%), chemicals and chemical products (2.8%), and other manufacturing and repair (1.4%); only 6 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors increased.

Commenting on today’s GDP figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018, Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

“The economy saw a strong summer, although longer-term economic growth remained subdued. There are some signs of weakness in September with slowing retail sales and a fall-back in domestic car purchases. However, car manufacture for export grew across the quarter, boosting factory output. Meanwhile, imports of cars dropped substantially helping to improve Britain’s trade balance.”

The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.1%. Owner occupied housing commitments fell 1.2% and investment housing commitments fell 0.9%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 3.8%.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.5% in September 2018.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.7%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 1.0% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.4%.

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 18.0% in September 2018 from 17.8% in August 2018.

China's consumer prices increased at a steady pace in October, while producer price inflation slowed for the fourth consecutive month on weaker manufacturing activity, according to rttnews.

Inflation remained unchanged at 2.5 percent in October, the highest since February, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.

Nonetheless, inflation remains below the government's full year-target of around 3 percent.

Food prices advanced 3.3 percent and non-food prices climbed 2.4 percent annually.

On a monthly basis, consumer price inflation slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.7 percent in September.

Another report from NBS showed that producer price inflation eased to a 7-month low of 3.3 percent in October, as expected, from 3.6 percent in September.

Month-on-month, producer prices gained 0.4 percent versus 0.6 percent rise in September.

• Saudi Govt-Tied Think Tank Launches Study on OPEC Breakup

• Inflation Remains Near 2%, Expectations Little Changed

• Risks to Economic Outlook Appear Roughly Balanced

• Says Business Investment Has Moderated From Rapid Pace Earlier This Year

• Unemployment Rate Has Declined, Job Gains Have Been Strong on Average

• Voted 9-0 For Fed Funds Rate Action

• Fed Discount Rate 0.00-Pt to 2.75%

In September 2018, output decreased sharply in the manufacturing industry (−2.1% after +0.4% in August), as well as in the whole industry (−1.8% after +0.2%).

Manufacturing output increased over the last quarter (+0.5%), as well as in the whole industry (+0.7%).

Over the last quarter, output increased strongly in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+2.1%), in the manufacture of transport equipment (+2.0%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+1.4%) and in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+13.2%). It increased slightly in “other manufacturing” (+0.2%). Conversely, it diminished in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−1.8%).

Manufacturing output of the last quarter increased compared to the same quarter of 2017 (+0.9%), as well as in the whole industry (+0.8%).

Over a year, output of the quarter expanded in “other manufacturing” (+0.9%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+2.6%) and in the manufacture of transport equipment (+2.2%). On the contrary, it kept decreasing in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−2.0%). It was virtually stable in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (−0.1%). At last, it diminished in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (−0.6%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1454 (2191)

$1.1416 (2006)

$1.1396 (330)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1343

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1298 (3212)

$1.1250 (2421)

$1.1200 (1165)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 98673 contracts (according to data from November, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (5346);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3203 (2507)

$1.3121 (1679)

$1.3081 (1172)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3022

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2990 (4308)

$1.2947 (1266)

$1.2899 (2332)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 28201 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3172);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 36082 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4308);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.28 versus 1.26 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.